银行出手，全面停售

There have been many major news in the market in the past two days Let's take a look at the recent public and commercial banks, agricultural banks, Chinese banks, construction banks and other six state-owned banks have collectively dropped their five-year large-scale balance sheet The current balance sheet period for large-scale balance sheets is generally shortened to three years The interest rate is concentrated between 1.20% and 1.55% In addition, some

banks have marked the three-year large-scale balance sheet, which is also in a state of recession For the remaining three-year period of storage, now all major industries are trying to raise the threshold. On December 3, the public sector decided to raise the threshold of large-scale storage to 1 million, and the interest rate is only 1.55%, which is the same as the normal three-year period of fixed storage. High threshold

and low interest rate seem to be a trickle-down persuasion. It means that ordinary people should stop saving. Now the bank doesn't want your long-term savings at all.

The reason is simple. Long-term savings mean interest rates are locked for a long time and costs are locked. It means that the bank's expected savings interest rate will continue to fall in the next few years. It doesn't want to lower the high interest rate. For example, the current state-owned bank's annual savings interest rate has dropped to less than 1%. Now it's only 0.95%. And the

probability of it going down next year is high. Or you could say that domestic interest rates will be limited to zero interest rates for a long time. This is a big thing. It's inevitable. So at this time, the long-term

time. This is a big thing. It's inevitable. So at this time, the long-term savings in the bank will become a huge debt of high interest after continuous depreciation.

For the bank, this becomes a compensation business. We know that the bank's profits are mainly due to the interest difference between deposits and loans. For example,

you save 100 yuan to the bank, the bank gives you 2 yuan interest, and then lend your 100 yuan to others to collect 3 yuan interest. This

one yuan difference is the profit of the bank. The difference between the 2% deposit interest and the 3% loan interest is called the gap between the interest rate.

Although the gap between interest rates is not calculated in this way, we can understand it so simply. Considering that banks have their own operating costs, such as staff wages, rent, water and electricity, advertising, etc., this money is not the final profit. If the

gap is not covered, it will lead to losses. 1.8% of the world is the security border of banks. The difference between the interest rate of the loan and the interest of the deposit must be greater than 1.8% How much is it in China now? Currently, the interest rate of LPR is 3% to 3.5% The deposit

China now? Currently, the interest rate of LPR is 3% to 3.5% The deposit interest rate is 1.5% to 2% According to the data from the third quarter of 2025 The gap between Chinese commercial banks and banks is around 1.42% It can be said to be very dangerous There is a possibility of a general loss of capital at any time Bank losses are incredible May bring great

financial risks In this case, banks have to reduce the deposit interest rate one by one. Until today, large-scale deposits have also been hammered. So after hammering large-scale deposits, will the risk of the bank be eliminated? The answer is no.

The reason is the following: 1. The interest rate gap is still low, and it has not reached the safety line. 2. The market is not enough for real loans. 3. The bank's income is limited. 4. A large number of hidden bad

real loans. 3. The bank's income is limited. 4. A large number of hidden bad debts have not been exposed. The first and second are easy to understand.

What does the third mean? Those who have bought a house know that many people are in a state of extreme financial crisis. Especially those who used business loans to replace house loans in the early years, they have no way to pay their interest. In theory, the conventional way to deal with it is to take back the

interest. In theory, the conventional way to deal with it is to take back the property and do legal payment. The bank will admit the loss. But considering

all kinds of reasons, the bank's current common practice is to cut it off. For

example, the bank knows that many people do not have the ability to repay, and will not have it in the future. But I will still continue to discuss with them, and let them pay a few months in advance, or pay only a little interest per month. As long as you don't take the initiative to cut off the credit, the rest is easy to say. This situation is very common,

and specific numbers are not to be tested. But the bank will do so not out of kindness but to consider his own reason not to expose the bad account So the bank's real bad debt rate has always been a question mark, and it will be a question mark in the future. Interestingly, in the low-interest environment of the bank industry in Japan, the long-term interest rate difference was only about

0.5%. How did they survive? There are mainly two points to be considered. One

0.5%. How did they survive? There are mainly two points to be considered. One

is to develop wealth management business and earn fees. To put it bluntly, it is crazy to push financial products. The other is to go overseas to find high-end assets. The overseas loans of the three major Japanese banks are around 35% to 40% The overseas interest income of the Sannin Rilien is even over 90% The future domestic banks may also take this path Last year, China's overseas assets accounted for

about 22.5% Foreign profits contributed more than 26% Foreign trade profits increased by 14.75% And domestic profits fell nearly 6% The trend is already very obvious And for the household, there will be fewer and fewer choices, especially for the middle-class families who still have some money in their hands. I really don't know what

to do. According to the current situation, where will this money go? In

to do. According to the current situation, where will this money go? In

fact, there are roughly three directions in recent years: buy gold, buy a house, and enter the stock market. But now the house can't get out of the bottom. It was because of the fall before. After October, it began to slow down.

bottom. It was because of the fall before. After October, it began to slow down.

Gold prices have gone up, but they have become high-risk and high-valued assets. The

price has been falling and the volatility is getting bigger and bigger. Think about it carefully. The money of the people is gone, and there are only stocks

carefully. The money of the people is gone, and there are only stocks left. So many people say that this is deliberately chasing the residents to

left. So many people say that this is deliberately chasing the residents to move to the market and turn to the stock market and other full-scale markets. But

for ordinary people, how many people can get away from the nature of leek after entering the stock market? Take a look at the global debt rate. China's 10-year debt rate is lower than Japan's. Before that, Japan's 10-year debt rate was not growing. It

has recently reached a new high. What does the 10-year debt rate mean?

In a simple way, it is the long-term risk-free rate. If the rate of return is high, it means that the price of the country is falling and everyone is selling. It means that long-term national debt is not a better investment target. There are better places to go for money. For example, stock market, entrepreneurship,

target. There are better places to go for money. For example, stock market, entrepreneurship, and some risk assets. It represents a better growth or inflation expectation. If

this value goes down, it means that the national debt price is rising. Everyone is

buying. Buying such long-term risk-free products will cause a decrease in profit. The signal

behind this is that if there is no better place to go, people are not willing to take risks and think that even if there is such a little profit for ten years, it will be enough. This usually means that the pressure will be greater. For example, although the central bank has been releasing water, the institutions

be greater. For example, although the central bank has been releasing water, the institutions will directly shrink into the national debt as soon as they get the money.

If the national debt price is raised, the profit rate will drop.

But the key is the signal, why so much money has to be directly spent on national debt? Words can lie, but money won't. The result is that the big institutions vote with their feet. To be honest, for the current low interest rate and low income rate situation, we all didn't expect it, and we all didn't experience it. People are familiar with the script, which is a high growth of

experience it. People are familiar with the script, which is a high growth of decades. Who knows what the inflation is? From the decision-making to the enterprise, to

decades. Who knows what the inflation is? From the decision-making to the enterprise, to the residential families, it's all the same. In the past two years, several major official media platforms and local platforms have been working hard to make people optimistic about the building market and buying houses. If it was optimistic a few years ago

and took action, it may have lost its 20-year-old work. It is necessary to pay the price for being optimistic and taking action. But the price is probably to be borne by oneself. In this case, for ordinary people, the most important thing is to be humble about policy. Don't believe in any big news. Find more things and opportunities that are more certain. What

big news. Find more things and opportunities that are more certain. What

you can see in front of you, what you can see clearly. Let's turn our eyes to overseas. On December 3, the United States announced that the number of ADP small farmers and employment people was unexpectedly cold, and the number of private sector employment people decreased by 32,000 people. This is a clear contrast to the new job positions of 470,000 in last month, which is also far below the estimated 40,000-person

increase of economists. From the scale, the number of employees in more than 50 large enterprises has achieved a total of 90,000 new jobs. But small enterprises with fewer than 50 employees have reduced 120,000 jobs, of which companies with 20-49 employees have lost 70,000 jobs. The overall decline has been the largest single-month decline since

70,000 jobs. The overall decline has been the largest single-month decline since March 2023. The main reason behind this is that private sector companies have been receiving

March 2023. The main reason behind this is that private sector companies have been receiving more than a week's worth of financial support, especially in the field of professional services, information technology and other industries. The increase in salary has slowed down at the same time, and the number of new employees has increased by 4.5%. The

number of job seekers has risen to 6.7%, reflecting the shrinking demand for employees. This

data instantly ignited the market's pressure on the US Federal Reserve in December.

Gold has a strong color period or a hard-to-release market share even historically broke the 90,000-dollar US dollar high After all, the big flying farmer will only see the small flying farmers in the US-Land Bureau after the meeting in December On the other hand, Trump clearly released the news to nominate Kevin Hassett as the successor to Powell Kevin Hassett's position on the fall and the White House's policy orientation are

the same If he takes office, he may accelerate the process of the fall So there are many investment predictions that the United States will fall at least twice in 2026 Trump's purpose is also very clear, whether Powell is going to fall or not, next year he will definitely choose someone who is willing to fall to become the chairman of the United Nations. Of course, the

market needs a process of acceptance, just like before the United Nations fell, there will be small signals, until the last moment, the market completely digested. Now

Trump is making this kind of expectation, to package the matter of the candidate of the chairman of the United Nations into a market that has heard and accepted the fact. First, let people hear it, then let people get used to it,

fact. First, let people hear it, then let people get used to it, and finally let everyone think that this is a market consensus. Trump's choice

to let the wind blow this week is also considered. Because the United States and the United States will likely adopt a British policy, he needs to be counterproductive.

And from today on, the market will consider a more song-like, more political, and more close to the White House style of the United States and the United States. This makes Wall Street very worried. They are not afraid of Hasselt,

United States. This makes Wall Street very worried. They are not afraid of Hasselt, they are afraid of the White House's direct control of monetary policy. Although the

US-LTU fall probability in December is relatively high, the Chinese monthly fall probability is still not high. Recently, the central bank has mentioned the cross-week period in the three-week monetary policy report. The word "cross-week" is missing for several seasons and appears again. The

so-called cross-week period is the meaning of monetary policy becoming more and more profound.

This means that the monetary policy is slightly relaxed. In 2025, China will only go down once and then go down once. The cross-week period will be out of the world again, which means that in the future, it will be more cautious about the downfall and decline. If you have to choose a platform in the downfall and decline, then the Chinese central bank should be more inclined to downfall.