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5 Most Beaten Down Stocks To Buy Now

By Everything Money

Summary

## Key takeaways - **Duolingo Down 48% YTD**: The stock is down 48% year-to-date because the company is spending more on AI and long-term growth, worrying investors about lower cash flow and profit in the short run and slower user growth. Analyzer shows low price of 175, high of 1700, middle of 570. [02:01], [04:00] - **HIMS Dropped 30% in 6 Months**: HIMS stock has dropped 30% in the last 6 months due to rising competition especially in weight loss, concerns about growth sustainability, brand trust as it expands, and recent insider sales. Analysis yields low price of 31, high of 225, middle of 81. [05:54], [07:50] - **Novo Nordisk Fallen 56% Yearly**: NVO stock has fallen 56% in the last year from competition like Eli Lilly, weaker sales forecasts, US pricing pressure, and slower obesity treatment demand, despite high capex investments. Low price 50-56, high 140, middle 85. [08:35], [11:12] - **Lululemon Down 54% YTD**: Lululemon stock is down 54% year-to-date due to slowing North America sales growth, rising tariff costs, tougher competition, and weaker profit outlook. Analyzer gives low 203-220, high 460-488, middle 300-320 versus current 444. [11:55], [14:10] - **Fiserv Plummeted 70% YTD**: Fiserv stock dropped 70% year-to-date after missing earnings, cutting forecasts, slower merchant services growth, and leadership shakeup, from $238 in March to now. Results show low 108-122, high 215-328, middle 150-200. [14:58], [17:30]

Topics Covered

  • Mispricing beats hot tips
  • Down doesn't mean cheap
  • AI spend creates mispricing
  • High capex signals growth
  • Brand longevity trumps growth

Full Transcript

Everybody says they want to buy stocks when they're on sale. But then when those prices finally drop, suddenly everyone runs for the exit like a building's on fire. Today, I'm going to

show you five really beaten down stocks that have fallen significantly this year and the exact price I'd be willing to pay for each one. So, what if I told you the best investing opportunities don't

come from hot tips, breaking news, or someone yelling buy on TV or YouTube?

They come from one thing, mispricing.

when a business with real cash flow, real strength, a real story suddenly trades at a price that just doesn't make sense, that isn't in line with the fundamentals there. In a few minutes,

fundamentals there. In a few minutes, I'm going to share why we get excited when stocks fall and how that gets us excited as value investors, not speculators. But even more important,

speculators. But even more important, I'm going to give you the right tools and the right principles so that the next time you see a mispriced stock, you're going to recognize it instead of

running away like most investors do as a stock's price falls. Today, when I show you the stocks we're going to analyze, you'll be able to use this lesson.

You're going to start to recognize when price becomes disconnected from value and how that presents an opportunity in this market. prices above value for a

this market. prices above value for a lot of companies. But sometimes it goes this way. You've got to be able to do

this way. You've got to be able to do that. That is principal driven

that. That is principal driven investing. That's how wealth is built in

investing. That's how wealth is built in the long run. Now guys, remember these five stocks are down. It doesn't make them a buy. Just because a stock is down does not make it a buy. It makes it

cheaper, but it doesn't make it cheap.

Now, first stock, personal favorite of mine, not the stock, but the company.

And I want you to hear that personal favorite of mine. I want everybody to see my current phone. I have a 2327day

streak on Dualingo. 2327-day

streak on Dualingo. That is our first stock. They are a language learning app

stock. They are a language learning app that lets people learn for free with the option to pay for extras. Kind of like Netflix, but for language lessons. The

stock is down, guys, 48% year-to- date. 48% because the company

year-to- date. 48% because the company is spending more on AI and long-term growth which has investors worried about lower cash flow and profit in the short

run and slower user growth right now. I

always tell people start with stock analyzer. The reason being is don't

analyzer. The reason being is don't waste your time following a company that makes that the price is so disconnected from your price that you would even look at it. If you're out looking for a car

at it. If you're out looking for a car and you say to a salesperson, I'm looking for a car. They say, well, here's our $1 million, $2 million Bugatti. Would you say, "All right,

Bugatti. Would you say, "All right, let's talk about this." No, you'd say, "Well, I'm looking for a $40,000 car."

You would immediately stop and say, "No, I need $40,000 car." So, revenue growth over the next 10 years. I'm going to do a 10-year analysis. Let's do 10, 20, and

30%. Look at this profit margin and free

30%. Look at this profit margin and free cash flow margin growing tremendously.

I'm going to sit here and put in 30.

Let's go 33, 43, and 53%. And remember

guys, it's a young company, so I'm speculating here, but this is important.

Now, what's the appropriate PE and price to free cash flow 10 years from now?

That's the question we need to ask. 10

years from now, what is that number?

Well, guys, I always tell people 15 to 16 is the market average. You go higher for great companies, lower for bad companies. This company is pretty

companies. This company is pretty awesome. It leads the world in language.

awesome. It leads the world in language.

So, I'm going to put in 16, 20, and 24. And guys, I'm throwing off the cuff here. I'm just trying to get some numbers out there to see if we're even the realm of possibility. And

finally, my 9% desired return. It's the

market return to figure out what is this thing worth, but I'm not going to buy it based on a 9% return. I need a margin of safety, which means a much higher return

than this. But the stock's currently at

than this. But the stock's currently at 170. Hit the analyze button. Damn.

170. Hit the analyze button. Damn.

Yes, guys. I'm going to do more research. I have a low price of 175,

research. I have a low price of 175, high price of 1,700, middle price of 570. Now, you might be wondering, Jesus,

570. Now, you might be wondering, Jesus, Paul, look how far apart these are.

These are 10 10x. Well, yeah. That's

what happens on newer companies that have a lot of wide different revenue growth assumptions. That is what's

growth assumptions. That is what's impressive. So, for me, I'm adding this

impressive. So, for me, I'm adding this immediately to my list of companies I need to do more research on. Now guys,

to validate these, I go to analyst estimates. My biggest concern is revenue

estimates. My biggest concern is revenue growth. Look at analyst estimates. 37,

growth. Look at analyst estimates. 37,

26, 22, 13. So it doesn't seem like 10, 20, and 30 are that far off. Maybe it's

not that big of a deal in terms of my assumptions being too high. Could have

been a little bit lower. Sure, maybe 10, 15, and 20. But guys, guess what? Even

if I change this to 1015, and 20, I still have 175 in the low, 808 in the high, 388 in the middle. still over a 20% potential return if this works itself out. If the numbers feel

itself out. If the numbers feel overwhelming, you're not alone. We're

going to do four more companies and we're going to do a lot more detail on the numbers. We're here to simplify all

the numbers. We're here to simplify all of this in our videos. So, it's really important. Some of the metrics we go

important. Some of the metrics we go over here, I want you to have a cheat sheet. That's why I created an

sheet. That's why I created an absolutely free cheat sheet. That way,

you can look at these numbers, understand them, keep them at your desks, keep them on your phone so that when you watch our videos and go, "What does that metric mean?" It's right there ready for you. So, click the link below,

download it. It's our key metrics from

download it. It's our key metrics from our main page. So, something for Dualingo, it gives you all these key metrics absolutely free at your fingertips. This is why I teach on

fingertips. This is why I teach on YouTube, guys. Nobody's talking about

YouTube, guys. Nobody's talking about this stuff. All they're talking about

this stuff. All they're talking about is, "Oh, look at this stock. It's going

up. I think there's a lot of momentum.

It's a great story." That's not investing. That's speculating. Stock

investing. That's speculating. Stock

number two, HIMS. This stock has been all over the place. HIMS is an online platform that helps people get treatment for things like hair loss, mental health, sexual wellness by connecting

them with doctors, and shipping products right to their door. The stock has dropped 30% in the last 6 months because of rising competition, especially in the weight loss space, along with concerns

about how long its growth can last, trust in the brand as it expands, and recent insider stock sales that made some investors a little nervous. on the

10-year analysis for him. My first

assumptions were revenue growth, 10, 20, and 30%. So, before we look at that,

and 30%. So, before we look at that, let's go to our main metrics page, guys.

Their three-year growth rate was 70%.

Their 5-year growth rate is 76%. And I'm

looking at 10ear growth rate. Now, this

is a young company. We don't know where it's going to end up being, but I think my 10, 20, 30% is very reasonable for the next 10 years. Let's see what analysts think for the next four years,

20%, 18%, 5, and 11. So actually maybe my middle assumptions are too high. So

I'm going to go back here and I'm because I look at analysts going they tend to be more optimistic I feel than most. So I'm actually going to do 8 12.5

most. So I'm actually going to do 8 12.5 and 20%. I'm going to go a little bit

and 20%. I'm going to go a little bit higher here. So I've adjusted my revenue

higher here. So I've adjusted my revenue growth numbers. Next profit margin 15 25

growth numbers. Next profit margin 15 25 and 35. As you guys can tell

and 35. As you guys can tell the profit margin and free cash flow have not been there lately. But I'm

going back to this main page. Gross

profit is 75%.

Their 5-year profit margin is 6%. Last

year was 6%. So I'm looking at the saying, can they get higher? High gross

profit margin here. That means every extra dollar they sell, 75 cents of it goes to the bottom line before overhead and taxes. That's really important. So

and taxes. That's really important. So

I'm making a little bit of a leap here by saying 15, 25, and 35%.

But I'm I'm fine keeping it there right now. Now, what's the PE 10 years from

now. Now, what's the PE 10 years from now? I put 16, 19, and 22. And I guess

now? I put 16, 19, and 22. And I guess again, my 9% desired return. The stock's

currently at 37. I hit the analyze button. All right. 31 on the low side,

button. All right. 31 on the low side, 225 on the high side, $81 in the middle.

Big potential return, but again, that was based on 25% margin. If we change this to 10, 17 12 and 25 there. Let's

see how much it changes it. We still

have pretty decent go of it. So, as long as they don't issue a lot of shares to dilute people, this looks like something interesting. We are two for two right

interesting. We are two for two right now on looking at companies that desire that deserve more attention in my opinion. Again, it doesn't mean you buy

opinion. Again, it doesn't mean you buy them. It mean because they're two young

them. It mean because they're two young companies that just went public recently. You've got to be aware of

recently. You've got to be aware of that. Stock number three, Novo Nordisk.

that. Stock number three, Novo Nordisk.

NVO is a global pharmaceutical company best known for its diabetes and weight loss drugs like Ompic and WGOI. The

stock has fallen 56% in the last year because of growing competition from Eli Liy, weaker future sales forecasts, pricing pressure from the US government, and slower than expected demand for its

obesity treatments. Guys, this company

obesity treatments. Guys, this company is great, but there is a lot of growing de competition for these weight loss drugs. So, let's go to our stock

drugs. So, let's go to our stock analyzer tool. Let me put in NVO.

analyzer tool. Let me put in NVO.

See what I did last 10 year analysis.

Revenue growth 48 and 12%. Well, guys,

on the main page, three-year revenue growth rate 23.59, 5year 19.93, 10year 11.8. So, I'm going low, it seems. Let's

11.8. So, I'm going low, it seems. Let's see what analysts think. Now, analysts

are a little more conservative than this. They're in the high single digits,

this. They're in the high single digits, basically double 10% growth per year in terms of revenue. So, let's see this now, guys. Free cash flow, profit

now, guys. Free cash flow, profit margin. The free cash flow over the last

margin. The free cash flow over the last 10 years has actually gone down. Is this

something that's going on? Are they

spending more money? Let's go find out in there because cash flow is driven by capital expenditures. The higher your

capital expenditures. The higher your capital expenditures, the worse your cash flow. And look, capital

cash flow. And look, capital expenditures are up a lot in the last 5 and 10 years. They used to be 1 to2 billion a year every so often a fluke

year. It is 9.7 billion. Why? We need to

year. It is 9.7 billion. Why? We need to understand that. So I'm not as worried

understand that. So I'm not as worried about this as other people might be. I'm

going to focus on the profit margin for now. Again, PE 16, 19, and 22. And then

now. Again, PE 16, 19, and 22. And then

a desired return of 9%. The stock's

currently at 45. I hit the analyze button. I have made every possible

button. I have made every possible investing mistake you can imagine. I

bought too high. I sold too early. I

listened to the wrong people. And that's

exactly why I built everything money. It

was first built purely for me. I wanted

the tools that gave me clarity and decreased the fear of investing. People

saw me using these tools on YouTube and said, "Paul, can you share those?" And

at first I said, "No, it's a data feed."

But then I realized I could make this.

So I did and the real community was born. real people sharing ideas, live

born. real people sharing ideas, live chats, live streams, and tools that help you beat 99% of investors, but most importantly, help you sleep better at

night because money can be very scary. I

still use these tools every single day, like stock analyzer, real estate calculator. So, stop guessing, start

calculator. So, stop guessing, start learning, start sleeping better, try it for $7 for 7 days. I'll see you in there, man. Another one. low price of 50

there, man. Another one. low price of 50 to 56, a high price of 140, middle price of 85. Guys, I want to make note before

of 85. Guys, I want to make note before we go further. If you look at our past videos, people are always saying, "Oh, you never find stocks that are interesting or all green." We've just found three. I went in this blind. I had

found three. I went in this blind. I had

no idea what stocks they picked. Guys,

I'm going this completely blind. We have

three stocks that, in my opinion, deserve more attention. Again, doesn't

mean they're a good buy. Stock number

four, guys, we've talked about this one.

We've made videos on this one. This one

is quite interesting. When it was at 160, it is now at 170. So, not far off, it is Lululemon. Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel brand that sells

workout clothes and gear through its own stores and website. The stock is down 54% year-to date because of slowing sales

growth in North America. not slowing,

not sales being down, slowing growth, rising costs due to tariffs, tougher competition, and a weaker outlook that made investors worry about shrinking profits and future growth. Now guys,

let's go to our stock analyzer tool. And

remember, I've talked about this in Lululemon many times. Fashion is

cyclical. Is Lulu another Nike? I don't

know. I don't think so. But does it have the potential? Possibly. You've got to

the potential? Possibly. You've got to remember though that all these brands come in and out. question is who has staying power. So on our 10-year

staying power. So on our 10-year analysis, revenue growth, I did four, seven, and 10%. You can see right here, declining revenue growth over the last

10 years. Still growing, but not as

10 years. Still growing, but not as fast. If we go to analyst estimates,

fast. If we go to analyst estimates, look at this guys. They're actually more pessimistic than me. They've got six, 6 and 1/2, 5 1/2, 11, and 7%. So, I might

be overly positive on them, but remember, just because something might not have as good a story doesn't mean it's not worth it. Look at this. In the

last year, Lululemon created $1.17 billion in free cash flow. If I sold you the company for $1, would you buy it? Of

course you would. You make your money back in one millisecond. If I said to you $1 trillion, would you buy it?

Hopefully, you would not. That's the

point we're trying to get to. So, back

to stock analyzer now. profit margin and free cash flow. There are discrepancies here. Have to understand that. But I'm

here. Have to understand that. But I'm

going to focus here on some sort of combination. I did 14, 15, and 16% on

combination. I did 14, 15, and 16% on profit margin. Keep in mind, they did

profit margin. Keep in mind, they did 16% only over one year, which is our high range. And I did 13, 14, and 15% on

high range. And I did 13, 14, and 15% on free cash flow. Even though their free cash flow is consistently around 11% or so, maybe 12. So, I'm being a little optimistic on the free cash flow. I

think it'll catch up. PE and price of free cash flow 1619 and 22 and a 9% return. I hit the analyze button and

return. I hit the analyze button and guys low price of 203 to 220 high price of 460 to 488 middle price of 300 to

320. We're 444 now guys and I want to

320. We're 444 now guys and I want to repeat before we go to our fifth and final stock. These are all great

final stock. These are all great numbers. The question is how accurate

numbers. The question is how accurate are these numbers? Once you see this and see all this green, when you do more research, you're going to pull back the layers. My biggest concern on Lulu is,

layers. My biggest concern on Lulu is, will it be a premium brand forever? Will

it be an amazing brand for women and men forever? That is the question. If I knew

forever? That is the question. If I knew for sure that somebody came down and said, Paul, 30 years from now, Lulu will still be around and their revenue growth would have been seven or eight% a year

for the rest of the time. I'm jumping on this all day. I'm going to make a killing in the next 30 years. But we

don't know that because the future is unknown and we're humans and we make mistakes. That's the key to investing.

mistakes. That's the key to investing.

Stock number five, Fiserve, guys. This

company, $33 billion company. They're a

financial technology business that helps banks and businesses process payments, run digital banking, and manage point of sales systems like Clover. The stock has

dropped hard, 70% year-to- date after missing earnings, cutting its forecast, facing slower growth in key areas like merchant services, and shaking up leadership. Could you have anything

leadership. Could you have anything happen to a company more than that? All

of these are serving big concerns about how well the company's being run. Guys,

this stock was at $238 back in March of this year, a mere eight months ago.

$238.

Look at that. It was up for the year at that point and it's just collapsed since. Look at all these big gaps down.

since. Look at all these big gaps down.

Big gap. Big gap. Big gap. Let me get rid of this thing.

Big gap. Big gap. All drops. You know

how we say gaps fill? I guess not over here. This company has absolutely been

here. This company has absolutely been hit hard. Ironically, we have community

hit hard. Ironically, we have community members who think it's a buy. So, let's

go to our stock analyzer. Let me see if I've ever done this company. I don't

think I have. So, we're going to do this. We're popping our cherry right

this. We're popping our cherry right here, guys. So, first off, return on

here, guys. So, first off, return on capital sucks, but it's hopefully getting better. The last 10 years, 6.6.

getting better. The last 10 years, 6.6.

The last 5 years, 4.3. Last year, um, 7%. Revenue growth has absolutely

7%. Revenue growth has absolutely plummeted. Oh boy. Let's see what

plummeted. Oh boy. Let's see what analysts think about this revenue growth. No data available. All right.

growth. No data available. All right.

So, no data is available. So, I got to sit there and figure out, make some assumptions here. I'm going to do

assumptions here. I'm going to do 6 9 and 12%. Profit margin as you can

tell 10ear average 13 12 14 free cash flow is way higher. We're going to focus on free cash flow. So I'm going to do just 15 across the board because I don't really care about this. And for free

cash flow I'm going to do 17 19 and a half. No 17. Let's go 17 20 and 23. PE

23. PE 14, 17, and 20 because remember guys, low returns on capital. It's been around for a while. I don't really know. Like

I'm looking at their gross margin.

That's 61%. That's a lot. So I'm looking at going this company should be able to grow their revenue pretty solid, but it might be in a more congested area. And

I'm going to do a 9% desired return. Hit

the analyze button. So here's what I got. Another big one. 108 to 122, 215 to

got. Another big one. 108 to 122, 215 to 328, 150 to 200. Guys, I don't remember the last time we did five stocks that were all green. This is probably something you have to look at. Make sure

you understand which companies you're buying and why you're buying them. And

guys, earlier this year, I decided to challenge the famous Magnificent 7 by picking my own seven stocks to start the year. Click the video on your screen to

year. Click the video on your screen to see which ones I picked and how they stacked up against the market's mag seven. and wait until you see how

seven. and wait until you see how they're performing. You will not expect

they're performing. You will not expect this.

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