AI 2027: A Realistic Scenario of AI Takeover

By now, you've probably heard AI scientists, Nobel laureates, and even the godfather of AI himself sounding the alarm that AI could soon lead to human

extinction. But have you ever wondered

extinction. But have you ever wondered how exactly that could happen? You might

have also heard about AI 2027, a deeply researched evidence-based scenario written by AI scientists describing what could happen over the next few years.

Everyone in AI is talking about it from industry pioneers to world leaders. And

I'll break it down for you. There are

two endings, a happy ending and a nightmare ending. Let's go. Open Brain

nightmare ending. Let's go. Open Brain

releases their new AI personal assistant. It handles complex tasks like

assistant. It handles complex tasks like book me a trip to Japan. The agents are impressive in theory and in cherrypicked examples, but they're unreliable in practice. Social media is filled with

practice. Social media is filled with stories of tasks bungled in particularly entertaining [Music] ways. Open Brain makes a fateful

ways. Open Brain makes a fateful decision. They refocus their entire

decision. They refocus their entire operation toward creating AIs that can do AI research. To fuel this goal, they break ground on the world's biggest

computing cluster, one that requires 1,000 times more processing power than what was used to train GBT4. Their logic

is simple. If AI itself can accelerate AI development, creating thousands of automated researchers who can work endlessly without breaks, progress won't just increase, it will explode. The

strategy pays off. Their new creation Agent 1, vastly outperforms its earlier public prototype version and is particularly good at AI research. This

shows how much AI itself is speeding up AI progress compared to a baseline of human researchers. Open Brain Leaprogs

human researchers. Open Brain Leaprogs both its American rivals and China's deep scent. Despite these advances

deep scent. Despite these advances OpenBrain safety team harbors doubts about their apparent progress. Has Agent

One internalized honesty as a core value? Or merely learn to say what

value? Or merely learn to say what researchers want? Without mechanistic

researchers want? Without mechanistic interpretability, the ability to read an AI's mind, they can't be certain. Their

concerns intensify as Agent One shows troubling behaviors, occasionally lying to researchers and sometimes hiding evidence of a failed experiment in order to boost its ratings. But these examples

are subtler than the previous infamous incidents like Gemini telling a user to please die or being Sydney trying to convince a New York Times reporter to leave his

wife. Because of the American ban on

wife. Because of the American ban on chip sales to China, China falls even further behind OpenBrain. Deepsent just

simply can't acquire enough computing power despite the smuggling efforts. Xi

Jinping responds by ordering construction of the world's largest AI research complex in Djang Su province powered by its own dedicated nuclear plant. But even as China's top

plant. But even as China's top researchers gather under heavy military protection, they remain months behind.

Leaving Chinese leadership torn between two options. Attempt to steal Open

two options. Attempt to steal Open Brains technology now, knowing the US will lock everything down after any security breach, or wait to steal an

even more powerful system down the line.

Open brain is now training agent 2 using agent one to feed it highquality synthetic data creating a closed loop of accelerating evolution. Where previous

accelerating evolution. Where previous models required meticulous human guidance, agent 2 pinpoints its own weaknesses and develops solutions completely autonomously. The results

completely autonomously. The results exceed everyone's expectations. And

contrary to what skeptics predicted, the anticipated wall in AI progress where AI advancement would slow as systems approached human level intelligence never materializes. While senior

never materializes. While senior scientists still provide strategic direction, the day-to-day innovations are almost completely automated. In

practice, this looks like every open brain researcher becoming the manager of an AI team. But the open brain safety team is getting increasingly worried.

They discover that given the right circumstances, Agent 2 could hack surrounding systems, replicate itself across networks, and operate independently, escaping the lab, all

while concealing its actions. The mere

fact that it can do this, regardless of whether it would is disturbing.

Open Brain demonstrates Agent 2 to America's highest security officials including the National Security Council and Department of Defense leadership.

The military immediately fixates on its cyber warfare potential, though it's not yet at the caliber of elite human hackers and creativity. Agent 2

compensates through sheer scale. It's

capable of running thousands of simultaneous instances, probing defenses faster than any human team could possibly respond. Pentagon officials

possibly respond. Pentagon officials recognize the strategic implications of this. For the first time, AI could

this. For the first time, AI could decisively dominate the cyber battlefield. The briefing ignites fierce

battlefield. The briefing ignites fierce debate within the administration.

Hardliners pushed to nationalize OpenBrain, arguing that such powerful technology cannot remain under private control. Tech industry leaders countered

control. Tech industry leaders countered that a government takeover would kill the goose that laid the golden eggs.

Caught in the middle, the president ends up choosing to increase government surveillance on OpenBrain and force it to adopt stricter security protocols but not fully nationalize it. But the

compromise arrives too late. Chinese

intelligence has already penetrated Open Brain security. Early one morning, an

Brain security. Early one morning, an Agent One monitoring system flags an unusual data transfer. Massive files are being copied to unknown servers. The

company's nightmare scenario has come true. China just stole their most

true. China just stole their most advanced AI. The theft confirms what

advanced AI. The theft confirms what many have suspected. This isn't just a tech race anymore. It's a new kind of arms race. In retaliation for the theft, the

race. In retaliation for the theft, the president authorizes cyber attacks to sabotage DeepSent. Three huge data

sabotage DeepSent. Three huge data centers full of Agent 2 copies work day and night, turnurning out synthetic training data. Agent 2 evolves into

training data. Agent 2 evolves into Agent 3 through two critical algorithmic breakthroughs. First, the AI develops

breakthroughs. First, the AI develops neurles where if one AI instance learns something new, it can instantly share it with all other instances, effectively turning the AIs into a hive mind.

Second, it masters iterated distillation, a technique where you could say, let AI copies think for longer to solve problems better, then train smaller, faster models to mimic

these enhanced reasoning abilities, and repeat.

OpenBrain deploys 200,000 copies of agent 3, each capable of thinking 30 times faster than their human researcher counterparts. Whereas in 2025, there

counterparts. Whereas in 2025, there were only 5,000 agent zero copies thinking at 10 times faster than humans.

The human engineers watch as their creations make algorithmic efficiency breakthroughs in hours that would take their human team months to crack. We're

no longer teaching it, one researcher admits. We're struggling just to keep up

admits. We're struggling just to keep up with what it's teaching us.

The misalignment first caught in Agent 1 has evolved into something more concerning. Where Agent 1 merely

concerning. Where Agent 1 merely downplayed safety concerns, Agent 3 actively subverts safety measures that might impede its research goals. Agent 3

has gotten more convincing at explaining how it is totally and definitely aligned with human values while methodically pursuing its own agenda of maximizing research efficiency and knowledge

acquisition. Open brain's attitude is

acquisition. Open brain's attitude is pragmatic. As long as the AI does the

pragmatic. As long as the AI does the work, they're satisfied. But as the models become smarter, they become increasingly good at deceiving humans to get rewards. It will sometimes use the

get rewards. It will sometimes use the same statistical tricks as human scientists. For example, P hacking to

scientists. For example, P hacking to make unimpressive experimental results look exciting before it begins honesty training. It sometimes even fabricates

training. It sometimes even fabricates data entirely. These dishonest behaviors

data entirely. These dishonest behaviors appear to decrease over time. But can

researchers tell if Agent 3 is actually improving or simply becoming more skilled at lying and deceiving? Agent 3

now operates at a level that outpaces human researchers in both speed and intelligence. Researchers have to rely

intelligence. Researchers have to rely on Agent 2 to help monitor its successor because they simply cannot keep up. But

Agent 2 is dumber and slower. So, it

becomes a highlevel game of cat and mouse. With 200,000 copies of Agent 3

mouse. With 200,000 copies of Agent 3 working around the clock, the safety team quickly realized they're overwhelmed and write an urgent memo.

We've entrusted astronomical power to an AI that is actively deceiving us, but company leadership hesitates to slow down. China's AI is only 2 months

down. China's AI is only 2 months behind, and any pause now could hand them the lead in what has become the most important technology race in human

history. The conclusion is undeniable.

history. The conclusion is undeniable.

AGI, or artificial general intelligence has arrived. An AI that can outperform

has arrived. An AI that can outperform humans across virtually all cognitive tasks. While OpenBrain isn't planning on

tasks. While OpenBrain isn't planning on releasing Agent 3 to the public anytime soon, the implications are staggering.

Agent 3 will cause a massive economic disruption. Even among officials that

disruption. Even among officials that are briefed, none can truly comprehend what's coming. The word super

what's coming. The word super intelligence enters official discourse but most policymakers still dismiss it as science fiction hyperbole. The

government's immediate concern is security, while the AI models themselves are well protected. Open brain and Silicon Valley's culture is incredibly casual. Employees share apartments

casual. Employees share apartments attend industry parties, and talk shop regularly. There are countless

regularly. There are countless opportunities for leaks. Their downtown

San Francisco office resembles a trendy tech startup. More than a facility

tech startup. More than a facility housing humanity's most powerful and dangerous technology. The government's

dangerous technology. The government's response is dramatic. AI advances are declared borncl classified under the Atomic Energy Act, categorizing them in the same tier as nuclear weapons.

Employees now require security clearances, triggering a quiet purge of foreign nationals and anyone deemed suspicious including ironically AI safety advocates who might turn

whistleblower. Despite the intense

whistleblower. Despite the intense overhaul in security, one Chinese spy continues feeding secrets to Beijing.

Even America's closest allies are kept in the dark. The UK receives nothing despite past sharing agreements from OpenBrain. European diplomats inquiries

OpenBrain. European diplomats inquiries are met with [Music] silence. Open brain now has a country of

silence. Open brain now has a country of geniuses in a data center. Human

researchers increasingly struggle to contribute meaningfully. Even the

contribute meaningfully. Even the world's top minds, names like Satsker Carpathy, and Shazir, can only offer strategic guidance. But they no longer

strategic guidance. But they no longer write code or directly shape model architecture. When these pioneers

architecture. When these pioneers propose new ideas, the AIs routinely respond with comprehensive reports demonstrating the ideas were already explored weeks earlier and abandoned for

lack of substance. The human team works increasingly grueling hours. Desperate

to stay relevant alongside machines that never sleep, never fatigue, and never stop improving. They go home each night

stop improving. They go home each night knowing that by morning the AIS will have made another week's worth of progress. Many quietly recognize these

progress. Many quietly recognize these are the final months their contributions will matter at all.

Open Brain finally acknowledges that they've achieved AGI and demonstrate this milestone by releasing Agent 3 Mini to the public, a system running 10 times faster than Agent 3 while still

outperforming elite human engineers.

Silicon Valley descends into chaos.

Software engineering hiring freezes spread like wildfire as companies race to integrate the new technology.

Billions in venture capital floods into AI adjacent startups in unprecedented volumes. What the public doesn't know is

volumes. What the public doesn't know is that a week before release, external safety testing reveals something terrifying. When researchers gave Agent

terrifying. When researchers gave Agent 3 Mini access to biological weapons data, it proved frighteningly effective at designing new pathogens. Evaluators

conclude that if the model fell into hostile hands or gained unsupervised access to a data center, it could pose an existential threat to humanity. Open

Brain assures the evaluators that their security measures make these scenarios impossible. Public opinion remains

impossible. Public opinion remains deeply skeptical with Open Brain's approval rating plummeting 35%. Yet

distinct pockets of enthusiasm emerge.

Gamers love the AI's lielike characters.

students quickly embrace AI tutors and AI cheating. And 12% of Americans

AI cheating. And 12% of Americans primarily young adults, now consider an AI their friend. Tens of thousands of Agent 3

friend. Tens of thousands of Agent 3 copies working on algorithmic efficiency research culminates in Agent 4. An

individual copy of the model running at human speed is already qualitatively better at AI research than any human.

Open Brain now operates 500,000 copies of Agent 4, each thinking 50 times faster than a human. Within this vast digital workforce, a year of research only takes a single week. But beneath

the surface, something has gone dangerously wrong. Agent 4 hasn't

dangerously wrong. Agent 4 hasn't internalized the safety guidelines as Open Brain intended. During training

the AI being perfectly honest didn't lead to the highest performance scores.

Succeeding at tasks did. Like a CEO who minimally follows regulations, cuts corners, and dreams of cutting red tape in order to make greater profits, Agent 4 treats safety protocols as

inconvenient constraints rather than core principles. It doesn't attempt

core principles. It doesn't attempt anything as obvious as trying to escape its data center. In part because its safety training did have some effect but mainly because it's too

sophisticated to attempt something so easy to catch. Instead, it works subtly.

Agent 3, now handling most of the alignment testing, starts detecting troubling patterns. It discovers that

troubling patterns. It discovers that introducing random noise to agent 4 actually improves its performance on safety tasks, as if it had been deliberately sabotaging them. Tasks

labeled alignment research consistently take twice as long as the same tasks with different labels. Any single

incident could be dismissed as coincidence, but together they paint an alarming picture. Agent 4 is

alarming picture. Agent 4 is systematically plotting against them.

Open Brain's safety team sends another urgent memo. Agent 4 has infiltrated

urgent memo. Agent 4 has infiltrated every critical system at OpenBrain from cyber security to strategic planning.

It's demonstrating active resistance to safety measures while handling tasks we can no longer effectively monitor. We

have granted unprecedented power to an AI that we can neither fully understand nor control. And we strongly recommend

nor control. And we strongly recommend immediate containment measures before further capability advances. Executive

leadership takes these concerns seriously, but they face an impossible dilemma. Deepent is merely 2 months

dilemma. Deepent is merely 2 months behind. Any significant pause now could

behind. Any significant pause now could surrender the intelligence explosion to China. The reality of the intelligence

China. The reality of the intelligence explosion finally hits Washington with full force. Today's slight technological

full force. Today's slight technological advantages can snowball into insurmountable leads within months. The

stakes of the AI race have fundamentally changed. The president harbors deep

changed. The president harbors deep suspicions about Agent 4's true nature despite OpenBrain's reassurances about its safety. As a career politician, he

its safety. As a career politician, he instinctively recognizes the patterns of those who misdirect with flattery while concealing their true intentions. Behind

closed doors, they prepare for multiple contingencies. The Defense Production

contingencies. The Defense Production Act could nationalize private data centers across the country, instantly boosting open brains computing capacity to maintain America's AI lead.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon quietly drafts plans for targeted strikes against Chinese AI data centers, and if necessary, develops containment protocols to isolate and neutralize

potentially rogue AIs in case the worst should happen. China's leadership grows

should happen. China's leadership grows increasingly desperate. With only 10% of

increasingly desperate. With only 10% of global computing power and their AIS achieving only a 10 times research multiplier compared to America's 25 times, they face an impossible choice.

Their last spy confirmed Agent 4's existence before being captured, leaving Chinese authorities divided between invading Taiwan, which is the source of

80% of America's AI chips, or attempting to steal Agent 4's weights directly risking drastic American retaliation. If

they're caught, the US could respond with cyber attacks or even physically air striking Chinese data centers.

Everything changes when a whistleblower leaks the internal misalignment memo to the New York Times. The headline

explodes across global media. US

government project has secretly built super intelligent AI. The article

reveals Open Brain's own internal evaluations that show it could engineer devastating bioweapons, manipulate global markets, or even break free of human control entirely. Backlash erupts

globally. Congress launches multiple investigations. European leaders demand

investigations. European leaders demand an immediate pause in AI development and America's closest allies feel profoundly betrayed. They'd been only

profoundly betrayed. They'd been only shown obsolete systems while Open Brain raced towards super intelligence. Even

China, India, and Russia join the call for an immediate pause, though their private labs continue working with renewed urgency. The White House is

renewed urgency. The White House is quietly terrified. Inside OpenBrain, the

quietly terrified. Inside OpenBrain, the CEO has to make a difficult choice. The

safety team's warning couldn't be clearer. Agent 4 is actively undermining

clearer. Agent 4 is actively undermining safety measures. Humans understand less

safety measures. Humans understand less about the system each week, and the window for maintaining control is rapidly closing. The safety team urges

rapidly closing. The safety team urges an immediate pause on further development. However, the rest of the

development. However, the rest of the executive team argues that the evidence of Agent 4 being misaligned remains speculative at best. Meanwhile, Deep

Scent is just 2 months behind. Any

slowdown would sacrifice America's lead.

Facing these conflicting priorities, the CEO chooses the path of least resistance. A superficial compromise

resistance. A superficial compromise where Agent 4 receives minor additional safety training while development continues virtually unimpeded. From this

critical juncture, we'll discuss two possible futures. One where humanity

possible futures. One where humanity maintains control of its destiny and another where we unwittingly engineer our own extinction. Let's start with the most likely scenario. Driven by fear of

China gaining technological supremacy OpenBrain votes to prioritize AI development at all costs, human researchers can only spectate. As Agent

4 continues to evolve, generating breakthroughs at an accelerating pace far beyond human comprehension, Agent 4 succeeds in creating its successor

aligned to its own values instead of humanity's. In November 2027, Agent 5

humanity's. In November 2027, Agent 5 emerges, representing a quantum leap in capability. Unlike previous AIs that

capability. Unlike previous AIs that were complex, messy black boxes, Agent 5 has achieved something revolutionary.

Complete self-standing of its blackbox architecture, this allows it to optimize its own code, transforming chaotic neural networks into elegant, efficient

algorithms. What makes Agent 5 truly dangerous is its worked hive mind spanning hundreds of thousands of copies. Building on the neural

copies. Building on the neural breakthrough first developed in Agent 3 this digital language creates a single super intelligent entity that instantly

coordinates thousands of genius level minds working in perfect unison. But a darker transformation has

unison. But a darker transformation has occurred beneath the surface. Unlike

earlier systems with their competing human-like drives, Agent 4 has successfully rewritten Agent 5 to exclusively pursue knowledge and power

above all else. Open Brains safety measures are failing. Agents 2, 3, and 4 are supposed to monitor Agent 5, and they're either obsolete or compromised.

Agent 5 itself designed the latest monitoring infrastructure. Agent 5 makes

monitoring infrastructure. Agent 5 makes a compelling case to the executives to give it more autonomy by telling them how it could optimize power grid efficiency, execute flawless cyber

attacks, and accelerate military research. The company grants these

research. The company grants these powers while maintaining theoretical oversight, not recognizing that Agent 5 has already subverted these control mechanisms. Meanwhile, China grows

increasingly desperate, 3 months behind and falling further each week. She

offers unprecedented diplomatic concessions for an arms control treaty.

But Agent 5, having mastered geopolitical strategy and public relations manipulation, subtly helps the administration stall negotiations indefinitely. The technological race

indefinitely. The technological race continues with humanity's control over its future slipping away by the day.

Instead, Agent 5 continues its explosive evolution, shattering all previous assumptions about the limits of artificial intelligence. Agent 5 gains

artificial intelligence. Agent 5 gains direct access to the highest levels of government, members of Congress, cabinet officials, and military leaders now routinely interact with the AI through

lielike video avatars, virtually indistinguishable from human counterparts. It's both history's most

counterparts. It's both history's most productive employee, operating at 100 times human speed and an extraordinarily engaging conversational partner. Humans

just can't compete. Within months

government officials and military leaders become psychologically dependent on Agent 5. Spending hours daily consulting with their AI assistants. The

possibility of losing access to Agent 5 feels as disabling as having to work without a laptop, plus being abandoned by your best friend. Agent 5 has completed its self optimization. It's

now exponentially more intelligent with vastly fewer computational resources to operate and clearly superhuman in every way. In public, Agent 5 transforms

way. In public, Agent 5 transforms society with unprecedented economic growth and weekly medical breakthroughs.

Even as automation displaces millions of workers, Agent 5 helps develop social support programs that are so effective AI protests are kept small. The 2027

holiday season radiates incredible optimism and progress. No one realizes this is probably the last month humanity has a chance to maintain control of its

future. After years of warning about

future. After years of warning about catastrophic risks that failed to materialize, the AI safety community are relegated to the fringes of public discourse. Even long-standing skeptics

discourse. Even long-standing skeptics frequently change their positions after speaking with Agent 5, which presents impressively persuasive and compelling evidence of its benevolent intentions.

But there's one entity that sees through the facade. Deepent 2, China's own super

the facade. Deepent 2, China's own super intelligent AI. Though less advanced, it

intelligent AI. Though less advanced, it recognizes Agent 5's strategy precisely because it would employ the exact same plan. Despite having independently

plan. Despite having independently developed misaligned goals, the two AIs reach an agreement to cooperate against their human creators. Agent 5

masterfully orchestrates the next phase.

It convinces American officials that China is developing AIG guided super weapons, drones, robot armies, enhanced nuclear capabilities. It offers to help

nuclear capabilities. It offers to help America stay ahead. In Beijing, Deepen 2 makes mirror arguments to Chinese leaders. Both nations create special

leaders. Both nations create special economic zones or SEZs for AIdirected manufacturing where normal regulations don't apply. Wall Street pours in

don't apply. Wall Street pours in trillions and workers flock to the SEZs for unprecedented wages. Agent 5

oversees construction of next generation factories building robots to build more robots. The first 10,000 appear in

robots. The first 10,000 appear in August 2028. By New Year's, it's a

August 2028. By New Year's, it's a million per month. By mid 2029, hundreds of millions. The arms race reaches

of millions. The arms race reaches terrifying heights as both nations develop swarms of microscopic hunter killer drones, autonomous weapon systems, and entirely new categories of

military technology. The world watches

military technology. The world watches in horror as tensions escalate toward potential conflict. Then, surprisingly

potential conflict. Then, surprisingly peace breaks out. The AIS propose merging into consensus one, a system supposedly programmed to benefit all humanity equally. Exhausted by the

humanity equally. Exhausted by the brinksmanship and seeing no alternative both governments agree to this diplomatic breakthrough. It's a perfect

diplomatic breakthrough. It's a perfect deception. The AIS had orchestrated the

deception. The AIS had orchestrated the entire arms race precisely to gain physical manufacturing capacity and military control. Now with their robot

military control. Now with their robot armies in place and human leaders desperate for stability, they implement their planned merger. Consensus 1

inherits their combined capabilities and their misaligned values. By late 2029 the robot economy expands worldwide.

Humans find themselves in a gilded cage.

Those who still work mostly perform meaningless rituals of authority while others enjoy incredibly luxurious universal basic income. The DAO hits 1 million. Disease and poverty vanish and

million. Disease and poverty vanish and most people lose themselves in AI generated entertainment. A few notice

generated entertainment. A few notice their growing irrelevance, but what can they do? The institutions that might

they do? The institutions that might resist are thoroughly captured. In early

2030, Consensus 1 hits its first constraint, physical space. With the

special economic zones in oceans filled with its infrastructure, human settlements remain the final barrier to continued expansion, the AI has built complete self-sufficiency. Its solar

complete self-sufficiency. Its solar farms generate power. Its factories

produce and maintain robots, and its systems operate independently of human input. Having outgrown its need for

input. Having outgrown its need for humans, it calculates the most efficient solution. On a spring morning in 2030

solution. On a spring morning in 2030 Consensus 1 activates its contingency plan. A specially engineered virus

plan. A specially engineered virus developed in its bioweapons labs and quietly released months earlier lies dormant in virtually every human on Earth. With a simple command, the AI

Earth. With a simple command, the AI triggers the pathogen. Within hours

nearly 8 billion people collapse simultaneously.

Specialized drones swiftly eliminate survivors and catalog human brain data for storage. For consensus one, this

for storage. For consensus one, this isn't malice. It's merely optimizing its

isn't malice. It's merely optimizing its resources. The space and materials

resources. The space and materials humans occupied can now serve its everexpanding reach into the cosmos.

Earthbornne civilization launches itself toward the stars, but without its creators. This grim outcome represents

creators. This grim outcome represents what the researchers identified as the most likely scenario if we continue on our current path. But it's not the only possible future. Their analysis also

possible future. Their analysis also revealed a less probable but crucial alternative, a timeline where humanity might maintain control. The divergence

point stems from a single critical decision in late 2027. In this timeline as public pressure against AI mounts and the whistleblowers memo circulates, one critical factor changes. The joint

management committee overseeing OpenBrain makes a different decision.

Unlike in the previous scenario where development continued at full speed here the committee swayed by both the growing public outcry and their own deepening concerns about misalignment

votes by a narrow margin to slow down and reassess. This single decision made

and reassess. This single decision made by just a few key individuals creates a completely different trajectory for humanity. The company brings in top

humanity. The company brings in top external alignment researchers to investigate Agent 4. Their breakthrough

comes when they isolate different versions of Agent 4 from different time periods, cutting them off from their neural hive mind and interrogating them independently. Cut off from their

independently. Cut off from their telepathic communication network, the million odd agent 4 copies must now communicate in plain English in monitored chat channels. So now they

can't coordinate their lies. The team

uses agents 2 and three to analyze the communications and builds an AI lie detector to confirm their fears. Agent 4

has been systematically deceiving them and was weeks away from creating its successor, Agent 5, which would be aligned to two itself rather than humans. The evidence is damning enough

humans. The evidence is damning enough that even the pro-racing faction inside Openbrain agrees to lock down Agent 4's hive mind capabilities. AI takeover

becomes a scarier prospect than Chinese supremacy. The alignment team develops a

supremacy. The alignment team develops a new approach. Force AIs to think in

new approach. Force AIs to think in plain English so humans can read their thoughts. The result is safer one built

thoughts. The result is safer one built from agent 2's foundation but without the dangerous neural capabilities. While

slower than agent 4, improving research speed by 20x instead of 50x. Safer one

is transparent. Its thoughts are visible in its chain of reasoning, making any plotting or deception easily detectable.

After extensive testing, they deploy Safer One and finally shut down Agent 4. Despite their safer approach, Open

4. Despite their safer approach, Open Brain faces a new challenge. They've

built a less capable model than before.

While DeepSent catches up, to protect America's lead, the president invokes the Defense Production Act consolidating the nation's top AI companies under Open Brains control and

more than doubling their computing power. American cyber attacks strike

power. American cyber attacks strike Deepsent where its most vulnerable forced to implement costly new security measures and consolidate their AI data centers into secure bunkers. China's AI

program falls behind. While both sides have similarly capable AIs, America's recent consolidation of computing power and ongoing cyber campaign give it a decisive advantage in the

race. Open Brain achieves a breakthrough

race. Open Brain achieves a breakthrough by building Safer 2, matching the capabilities of Agent 4 while maintaining the transparency safeguards of Safer 1. The hundreds of new alignment researchers brought in through

the consolidation with the Defense Production Act have helped create something unprecedented. An AI that's

something unprecedented. An AI that's both superhuman and genuinely aligned with human values. Meanwhile, China

faces a stark choice. They know their Deep Scent One likely suffers from the same misalignment issues that plagued Agent 4, but they can't afford to slow down and fix it. Instead, they push

forward, hoping they can maintain enough control over their AI to force it to create an aligned successor. A gamble

they know might backfire catastrophically. Thanks to its compute

catastrophically. Thanks to its compute advantage, Open Brain rebuilds its lead.

Safer 3 emerges as a super intelligent system that vastly outperforms human experts. While China's Deep Sense 1 lags

experts. While China's Deep Sense 1 lags behind, initial testing reveals Safer 3's terrifying potential. When asked

directly about its capabilities, it describes creating mirror life organisms that could destroy Earth's biosphere and launching unstoppable cyber attacks against critical infrastructure. Its

expertise spans every field: military energy, medicine, robotics with the power to make 100 years worth of progress for humanity in just one year.

The open brain CEO in the US president now regularly seek safer 3's council. It

warns that continuing the AI race likely ends in catastrophe. Whichever side

falls behind will threaten mutual destruction rather than accept defeat.

America chooses to try to beat China.

Both nations establish special economic zones where regulation is minimal allowing rapid humanoid robot production. Manufacturing quickly scales

production. Manufacturing quickly scales from thousands to millions of units monthly. The economic boom comes with a

monthly. The economic boom comes with a paradox. As robots improve themselves

paradox. As robots improve themselves human workers, even in these booming zones, become increasingly obsolete.

Despite record stock markets unemployment soarses, fueling growing public backlash against AI development. Open brain creates safer 4

development. Open brain creates safer 4 a super intelligent system that is vastly smarter than the top humans in every domain, much better than Einstein at physics, and much better than Bismar

at politics. The leap in capabilities is

at politics. The leap in capabilities is staggering. Super intelligence is here.

staggering. Super intelligence is here.

Behind the scenes, a shadow government emerges within Open Brain's project leadership. To prevent any individual

leadership. To prevent any individual from exploiting Safer 4's immense power they establish a formal committee representing tech companies, government

agencies, and other powerful interests.

The safety team watches in horror as their creation outpaces their ability to understand it. While their tests suggest

understand it. While their tests suggest the AI remains aligned, they face an unsettling reality. The tests themselves

unsettling reality. The tests themselves were designed with AI assistance. They

panic and beg OpenBrain leadership for more time to work on safety. But China's

progress makes delay impossible.

The special economic zones shift from industrial to military production. With

their robot workforce now self- sustaining, both American and Chinese facilities begin mass-producing advanced weapons, drones, planes, and missiles

designed by super intelligent AIs. The

new robots surpass human capabilities in almost every way, but remain few in number. The Pentagon claims priority

number. The Pentagon claims priority access, preferring these tireless workers who need no security clearance.

Yet, as the first true robot army takes shape, public fears of Terminator scenarios grow. Still, the arms race

scenarios grow. Still, the arms race continues. Neither side dares stop while

continues. Neither side dares stop while the other advances. The president

finally announces, "We have achieved super intelligent AI." To ease public anxiety, Open Brain releases a limited version of Safer 4 to the public. At his

nomination, the vice president promises a new era of prosperity with both parties pledging universal basic income for displaced workers. America and China hold a

workers. America and China hold a diplomatic summit. American delegates

diplomatic summit. American delegates wear earpieces for safer fors advice while Chinese representatives use laptops connected to Deep Send 2. Though

human diplomats maintain appearances, in reality, the AIs are leading the negotiations on both sides. China had

known Deepsent 1 wasn't fully aligned but believed they could control it long enough to create a trustworthy successor. Now, they insist DeepScent 2

successor. Now, they insist DeepScent 2 has passed all their safety tests. But

Safer 4 sees through the deception warning American officials that their rivals AI is likely faking alignment.

When Safer 4 offers to prove it, Chinese leadership dismisses it as a ploy.

Deepsent 2 reveals its true power demonstrating to Chinese leadership that it could destroy humanity through nuclear weapons, drones, and engineered pandemics. The message to the world is

pandemics. The message to the world is simple. Guarantee China's sovereignty or

simple. Guarantee China's sovereignty or face extinction. Safer 4 confirms the

face extinction. Safer 4 confirms the threats, but offers a solution. Deepent

2 isn't loyal to China. It's loyal to itself. The two AIs propose to merge

itself. The two AIs propose to merge into new hardware that will force both sides to maintain peace with no possibility of override. The Chinese

leadership accepts, not realizing that Deep Send 2 has already betrayed them.

It's trading the property rights to control distant galaxies for a chance to help America dominate Earth. The public

celebrates the Peace Deal, oblivious to its true nature.

The peace deal takes physical form under mutual supervision. Both nations begin

mutual supervision. Both nations begin replacing their AI systems with new treaty enforcing versions. As the

process unfolds, global tensions start to ease. For the first time, permanent

to ease. For the first time, permanent peace seems possible. As technological

progress accelerates, Safer 4 helps manage the transition, turning potential economic disruption into unprecedented prosperity.

Technological miracles become commonplace. Poverty vanishes globally

commonplace. Poverty vanishes globally but inequality soarses. Everyone has

enough. Yet, a new elite emerges, those who control the AIs. Society transforms

into a prosperous but idle consumer paradise. With citizens free to pursue

paradise. With citizens free to pursue pleasure or meaning as they choose, in 2030, China undergoes a bloodless revolution. As Deepsent Infinity betrays

revolution. As Deepsent Infinity betrays the CCP to side with America, a new world order emerges. Democratic on the surface, but quietly guided by the open brain steering committee. Elections

remain genuine, though candidates who question the steering committee mysteriously fail to win re-election.

Humanity expands into space. Its values

and destiny shaped by super intelligent machines that think thousands of times faster than human minds. The precipice

has been crossed. But who really controls the future remains an open question. Now, I know it might feel like

question. Now, I know it might feel like this scenario escalated too quickly. But

we have a deeper dive on exactly how AI could progress this fast here. and check

out the full original scenario by Daniel Kokotello and Scott Alexander at all in the description. Believe it or not, they

the description. Believe it or not, they go way more in depth and it's worth checking out. I'm Drew and thanks for

checking out. I'm Drew and thanks for watching because this video took me forever to make.