比特幣「死亡交叉」警訊分析！這一次該準備賣幣出清？Ben Cowen @intothecryptoverse【邦妮區塊鏈】

What kind of garbage crypto bora is

this?

>> These conditions are conditions we've

seen in the past.

>> This is a bare market.

>> It's never too late to start doing the

right thing. Altcoins are not a

long-term investment. By the time you

see the headline, you you can't really

profit from it because crypto is a

little further out on the risk curve

than stocks. So, it tends to if you

really want closure on that and want to

feel a little bit more confident about

it, normally what you see is you see

these weekly closes below the 50we

moving average. That is is where we're

currently battling right now. A lot of

people assume that just because QE

returns that you're going to have like

this massive move in the market.

Remember last cycle when QE started,

Bitcoin actually went down first and

then it went up. What it shows you is is

just when is it a good time to buy, when

is it a good time to sell? And anytime

even if you knew for a fact bubbles can

last for years before they fully align.

We have not had an all season cycle. I

don't care what anyone says.

Go wild.

She's the queen of the game. Stacking

crypto like it's her claim to fame. If

you want success, then take a look away.

Our guest today is Ben Cohen. He is the

founder of Into the Cryptoverse. He is

not only the superstar market analyst,

he's also a scientist with a PhD in

nuclear engineering and even worked at

NASA. And what makes Ben so different

and so popular is how he uses

engineering logic and math to break down

market cycles. And his approach has

helped hundreds of thousands of

investors make smarter timing decisions

and avoid the kind of emotional trades

that usually cost people a lot of money.

It's so great to have you back. Hello,

Ben.

>> Yeah, it's great to be here. Um, feel

like it's been a while since I've been

on on here, but uh, it was a great talk

the last time last time I was here.

>> Last time we actually met about a year

ago. It was at the Michael Sailor 100K

party and it's been a year, right?

>> Uh, it was the 100K party. We're back at

100K levels.

>> Yeah. And for reference, gold has been

up what over 50% and Nvidia

uh as well 36% I think. What kind of

garbage crypto boring is this?

>> Yeah, I don't imagine there's a 100k

party this year.

Uh yeah. No, I mean it's it I I mean I

really it's it's kind of like what we've

seen in in some prior cycles with

crypto. I think you could argue that

crypto is a little further out on the

risk curve than, you know, than stocks

and and so it tends to underperform

first. Saw very similar similar type of

stuff back in 2019 where stocks were

continuing to do well as quantitative

tightening came to an end and as

interest rates were cut. Uh but crypto

started to stall out a little bit

sooner. So you could argue because

crypto is a little further out on the

risk curve, it's a little bit more

sensitive to, you know, to liquidity

conditions and that sort of stuff uh

than, you know, than than things in the

S&P. And then gold, of course, has been

doing phenomenally well, but these macro

conditions for years have been very

favorable for metals. And my guess is

that metals will continue to do well

probably until the end of the decade

would be my guess.

>> And what about Bitcoin? Because we call

it a digital gold. Well, what happened

to Bitcoin?

>> Yeah. So I like I I don't really view

Bitcoin as a riskoff asset. I mean so

gold is a riskoff asset. It does really

well, you know, under under certain

types of macro conditions and and when

you do get sell offs like the one we got

in April, gold is is really quick to get

back to all-time highs and then of

course stocks take a little bit longer.

Uh let me share my screen here. Um

and we can talk a little bit more about

it. So, if you look at Bitcoin, you

know, Bitcoin is really stalled out and

and really what you want to look at in

this case is if you look at Bitcoin

divided by the S&P 500, what you'll

notice is that it it's actually near

where it was back in March, right? Like

it it hasn't really moved a whole lot

since the March lows when valued against

the S&P 500. But again, this type of

weakness that we're witnessing by

Bitcoin is the same type of weakness we

witnessed last cycle as quantitative

tightening sort of wrapped up. Right?

So, we've this purple line shows the

balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.

And you can see that as the balance

sheet started to, you know, start, you

know, as it as it went as we went from

quantitative tightening to quantitative

easing, Bitcoin actually kind of sold

off into that and then it it sort of

came out of it once QE really came back,

right? Once rates really went a lot

lower and when the money printers really

turned on. So, you could argue that the

Bitcoin is kind of in that same phase

right now that it was back in 2019,

although it is a little bit stronger now

than it was in 2019, right? like in 2019

it was struggling a lot more. Um, and by

by this point I I think it was down a

lot more from the from that local high

than it is right now. But regardless,

these conditions are conditions we've

seen in the past like for for Bitcoin.

Um, and I I think one of the things that

makes this cycle so difficult is because

a lot of people want to make it make

this cycle comparable to kind of the end

of prior posth having years like you

know the end of 2021,

uh, the end of 2017 and the end of 2013

when we had euphoria, right? Absolute

euphoria. We had these like massive alt

seasons and whatnot. But the reason why

this peak that we're forming probably in

the fourth quarter of this year, just

like always, the reason why this one

feels a little bit different so far is

because we haven't had that euphoria

phase. And you could argue we haven't

had that euphoria phase because of

monetary policy. And if you actually

look at at retail interest in crypto, if

you like look at the price of Bitcoin

colorcoded by social interest, it's blue

right now, which means really low

interest, right? So this this peak that

we're in right now to me again looks a

lot more like that 2019 move where we

also more or less topped on apathy

rather than topping on euphoria. Um so

that's kind of what I think is happening

right now and and why I think Bitcoin is

behaving in a very different way than a

lot of people uh might have expected for

this time in the cycle.

I think in your recent um video you said

if Bitcoin closes below 50WE um MA twice

then the cycle is usually over. And also

Bloomberg came out with this report that

says uh the cryptobear market wipes out

almost the entire 2025 value increase

that says uh because the crypto market

has dropped about 20% since October 6.

Uh this isn't just a correction. This is

a bare market. What do you think?

>> I don't I mean it look it certainly

could turn into a bare market that I

don't think we can definitively say that

just yet. If you look at the ROI from

the low for Bitcoin and compare it to

the last couple of cycles and you look

at where that peak occurred in October,

it kind of looks like like that could be

the end of the bull market. like it it's

like if if in a year from now if it's

the end of the bull if it turns out it

was the end of the bull market it would

have just been the same as the prior two

cycles right it would have topped after

around the same number of days right so

this top was around uh you know two

cycles ago the top was around day 167

last cycle was 1,059 and you know I

think this one so far was around 1,062

so it it's certainly possible that we're

in a bare market but I would say that if

you really want closure on that and want

to feel a little bit more confident

about it, normally what you see is you

see these weekly closes below the 50week

moving average. Um, and that is is

really what kind of solidifies when the

bull market is is here, right? So, you

can see there in 20 uh 14 and then again

in the next cycle and then again in the

next cycle. So, that is is where we're

currently battling right now. And that's

kind of like, you know, I think it's

more so let's just be a student of the

market and say, "All right, if the cycle

is over, then we're going to start

getting weekly closes below the 50week

moving average and then it's going to

likely set up the 2026 bare market,

right? We'll just view this as a topping

process. But we've we've had a couple of

weekly closes that came close to being

below the 50we moving average and then

Bitcoin was still able to come out of

it." Um,

>> and so I think like, you know, I think

in in the short term, the main times

where Bitcoin kind of found support

around the 50week moving average and

rallied out of it, it was actually when

the 50-day moving average crossed below

the 200 day, right? So if you look at

when it happened in 2024, when you look

at it when it happened in 2025, and even

when it happened in 2023,

all these prior death crosses by Bitcoin

actually corresponded to local lows in

the Bitcoin price. And that's where we

kind of found support at the 50we and

then we rallied into another all-time

high. And so if you look today, you can

see that we're kind of on that same

trajectory right now where we've had,

you know, a series of of lower lows, but

we haven't had the death cross yet. Now,

the death cross should occur around

November, I would say maybe between

November 10th to November 13th or 14th.

I don't know exactly. Uh but sometime

within a week or so, at least from when

we're recording this video. Um and so

that's going to be the signal for me, I

think. Like if if if there's going to be

a rally to a new all-time high, then it

should occur after the death cross and

the death cross should occur around

November 12th or so, right? Like if you

were to zoom in on this chart and just

kind of extend the 50-day moving average

a little bit and then maybe extend the

200 day moving average, it looks like

they might cross maybe maybe a little

bit after November, maybe like November

14th. So it could be like a week from

the recording of this video. Uh maybe a

little bit less, depends on how quickly

the prices change. Um, but that's

essentially what I'm looking at. And if

if the death cross arrives and if

there's not a rally and we get those

weekly closes below the 50we, then yes,

I I think it would be time to, you know,

to just be like, all right, like we we

are going into our 2026 downturn. The

good news is that if we don't have a

euphoria phase before the downturn, then

you could argue the downturn won't be as

bad because you won't have, you know,

all these new retail participants that

FOMOed in at the top providing us sell

pressure all the way down. So, it it

could be a lot more like that 2019 style

drop where it just kind of slowly goes

down uh and it and it might take place,

you know, for the first half of of 2026.

When you say a softer downturn, what

would it look like? Because for the past

few cycles, we Bitcoin was down 94% to

77%ish.

What would this look like in your

prediction?

>> Yeah. So, I guess two an two ways to

answer it. If if the top is in or if

there's only a slightly higher high,

right? So, I mean, even if Bitcoin were

to go to 130K or 140K, it's not going to

bring retail back, right? like that's

clear. Slightly higher Bitcoin prices

aren't going to do anything. Um, you

need altcoins to really move in order to

bring retail back and 140k Bitcoin isn't

really going to durably do that. I would

say if the top is either in or close to

being in, then you're probably looking

at around a 50% pullback. Um,

>> basically a pullback just to the 200E

moving average and and and also sort of

back near the prior all-time highs,

right? So somewhere between 60 to 70K

would be my guess would be kind of the

main target uh for a a pullback into the

year of 2026.

If if the cycle's not over and we have a

much larger rally that like kind of

takes everyone by surprise, then you

would probably have a deeper pullback.

Um maybe like a 70% pullback. And that

would actually be more in line with what

we've seen in in the prior cycles

because you're right, the first bare

market was 94%. The second one was 87,

the third one was 84, the fourth one was

77. And so if you just kind of

extrapolate that, it would make you

believe that the next bare market could

be around 70%, plus or minus 4% or so.

So between say 66% to 74% draw down. But

I think you're only going to get that in

2026 if you really see a more euphoric

ending to the year. If you don't see a

more euphoric ending to the year, then I

might I would probably more so be in the

camp of of of just a 50% pullback.

>> Is it also because um most of the buyers

are institutions and they don't panic

sell or why is this happening?

>> Yeah, I mean it's it's basically the

same thing as as 2019, right? I mean

like if you don't have euphoria then you

don't get massive capitulations. You

just kind of get a slower draw down. I

mean just kind of ignore the pandemic.

you just get sort of a a more controlled

draw down as we just go through we would

likely enter into a period where people

are are remaining optimistic about the

Fed cutting rates and and they're going

to like you know watch for Jerome Powell

to be replaced as a chair at the Federal

Reserve and for someone new to come in

and replace uh or you know start the

money printer back up lower rates and I

think that might keep Bitcoin from you

know from getting that like 80% drop. uh

that would be at least my guess for for

why and of course I mean institutions

will lead to lower volatility but I mean

Bitcoin has been experiencing kind of

like decreased volatility from one cycle

to another um every cycle and of course

this cycle we could we could sort of say

it's because of institutions but it's

also just the natural evolution of of

the asset in my opinion

>> the Fed plans to end uh QT by the end of

year and people are expecting well well

that means uh the market is going to go

crazy, but it's not really happening.

For people that are not following this

very closely, can you explain to the

everyday person what that means? What

does QT ending means?

>> So QT ending would mean the Fed stops

rolling off assets from their balance

sheet and they might start expanding it

again and going into what we call

quantitative easing. um

>> at this point I mean what it what it

typically means is that higher risk

assets stop bleeding against lower risk

assets like automatically right so like

one of the things that's been obvious

this cycle is that altcoins bleed to

Bitcoin you know and that you know and

in stocks you know micro cap companies

like the Russell bleed to the to the S&P

500 or bleed to the magn magnificent 7

while that could still continue and you

know for for a lot of them it's not as

as easy as of a trend to call right so I

mean in in the last cycle when

quantitative tightening ended um it it

actually marked this top by Bitcoin

dominance right here so you can even you

can even line up the end of quantitative

tightening to the to the Bitcoin

dominance chart and see that right when

QT ended that was when Bitcoin dominance

topped and so I would argue that when QT

ends it likely would correspond on to

Bitcoin dominance finding a a top for a

while. That would be my my guess. I

think a lot of people assume that just

because QB returns that you're going to

have like this massive move in the

markets and it doesn't mean that you

won't eventually. But remember last

cycle when QE started, Bitcoin actually

went down first, right? Like it it

actually started off by going down for a

little while and then it went up. So,

I'm just saying that, you know, if they

start QT in December, that's right

before 2026, and 2026 is a midterm year,

and midterm years tend to be bare

markets. So, my guess is that this phase

right here that we saw in 2019 after QE

began will be kind of the narrative for

the 2026 bare market, which again is a

normal thing. Um, bare markets are are

really normal. Like they're they're in

Bitcoin, they happen every four years or

so, right? Like it's not it's not that

abnormal for that to happen. So, that's

kind of what I I think will happen. I

think it'll it'll be a nice narrative.

It might lead to some short-term rallies

by all Bitcoin pairs and and and renewed

interest in the short term, but I think

by 2026, we likely will enter into a

downturn in the market. And my guess is

it'll it'll at least laugh last for the

you know for the first half of the year.

I don't I if there's not a euphoria

phase between now and and the end of the

year then the bare market maybe would

end in the summer rather than going

through the entire year.

>> Um but that's just kind of it's just

speculation at this point, right? I I

don't know how the year's exactly going

to end.

>> Did you just say the bare market would

be about half a year? That's pretty

short.

>> So normally bare markets are a year,

right? Normally bare markets are one

year. Um and and so I I think we have to

be I I think that if if the top's in

then I think the base case has to be

that the bare market low is in October

of 2026. Like that

>> I feel like has to be base case if the

top is in. But I mean, I could see an

example where where Jerome Powell is

replaced in May and they they introduce

a much more dovishfed chair that just is

all about rekindling the animal spirits

and and that might keep Bitcoin from

dropping too much. It wouldn't be like

completely unheard of in the

cryptoverse. Um, if you look at if you

actually look at last cycle, Ethereum

found a low in June of the midterm year,

right? Like so it actually bottomed out

really quickly uh in the summer. So it's

not impossible, you know, for for

Bitcoin to to do something similar um if

if it plays out like that. But again, I

I think base case has to be that it it

takes a year. But I I'm gonna I'm gonna

start looking for, you know, good

opportunities probably in the summer of

2026.

>> What chart would you be looking at?

>> So, I mostly look at at just sort of

like the the risk levels uh is is one

good thing to look at. I mean, you can

look at at a lot of different charts.

One of them though is is uh this chart.

Here we go. So, essentially what it

shows you is is just when when is it a

good time to buy, when is it a good time

to sell? And anytime you go to like

below 0.2 two risk, it tends to be a

really good time to buy. And the last

time we were at 0 2 risk or below it was

November of 2022. So my guess is we'll

see that opportunity again occur in

2026. And when it does, I think that's

usually a pretty good time to sort of,

you know, weight your buys a little

heavier into into the market. So that's

one thing you could use. You know,

there's there's plenty of other things,

but that's probably the main thing I

would use. Do you invest a lot more

during the these periods or h how does

it work? What's your strategy?

>> Yeah, so I use something called like

dynamic DCA. So if you look at a

simulation for buying Bitcoin and you

just DCA, let's say you DCA $100 a week

uh since 2014 and and let's actually

take it out, you know, to the current

day instead of in March. But if you if

you just did that, then you would have

invested about $57,000 if you started in

2014, and it would currently be worth

about $4 million, right? By just doing

$100 a week for the last, you know, 11

years. Um, that's a normal DCA strategy.

If you try to invest the same amount,

but do it dynamically based on like kind

of where the risk metric is. So it kind

of means you just put in more uh when

the risk is low and then you put in less

when it's a little bit higher. So So

again, in this case, we would have

invested around 57K.

So just to kind of like back that out, I

don't know exactly. Um let's let's say,

okay, so that'd be if your X is about

71,

guess 72, that that means you would have

invested around 57,000. But if you

follow the risk levels and kind of

weight it according to the risk, then

you're looking at a portfolio worth 7.5

million as opposed to 4 million by just

doing sort of a regular DCA. So that's

kind of what I use and and and so

basically this is the way it works,

right? You just have you kind of set

your X amount. It's like just a nominal

amount. That's what you're going to do

every week so long as the price is below

a certain risk level. But then the lower

the risk goes, uh, that's where you

start to do a lot more. So for instance,

if one week when the risk is say 0.5,

you put in a $100. If the next week if

the risk is 0.1, you would want to put

in five times the amount, right? So you

put in $500. That way your overall entry

is weighted to lower risk levels rather

than higher risk levels. So a lot of

people what they do is they just put a

lot of money in at the top and then they

get scared to buy at the bottom and so

they have kind of like a higher weighted

risk but you want to make sure you get

your buys in at lower risk levels rather

than higher risk levels. So that's what

I use.

>> This is amazing. And you everybody you

can find that in into the cryptoverse.

What about selling? Do you DCA sell or

you just hold?

>> Yeah, I mean I do. I generally if I if

if the risk gets high enough I will sell

some. Usually I wait until at least it

goes above 6 or 0.7 risk to start to

start scaling out but I would still hold

you know I mean generally historically

speaking I would hold a more a majority

of my position until you get to much

higher risk levels because this cycle

isn't I mean it's playing out more so

like 2019. You could argue it's more of

like a timebased thing than than maybe a

euphoria. So, I I would I I would take

some profits on Bitcoin uh before the

end of the year just because I I am

maybe I'm wrong, but I am mentally

prepared for next year being a bare

market. Um so, I would I would sell some

Bitcoin before the end of the year sort

of in preparation for that. But even in

that case, I would I would still hold I

would say maybe about one-third of my

Bitcoin stack no matter what as just an

acknowledgement that hey, I I can't

possibly know for sure what's going to

happen and I want to make sure I have

some exposure um you know at all times.

>> You know, right now it feels like there

are two opposite forces. one hand people

are talking about this AI bubble

potential crypto bare market and on the

other hand Trump is a businessman and

people are saying that you know the

market is his report card he's not going

to let the market crash and even though

we if we look at you know these tech

companies um the stock prices are crazy

right now but if you look at the profit

it actually goes alongside the stock

prices

unless we're talking about like and you

know, newer or smaller tech companies,

uh, high valuation, no profitability,

like two different forces. How do you

see them, um, play out together?

>> Yeah, I mean, AI is is is really

interesting because

it has I mean, it certainly is making

companies more efficient. I mean, and

and allowing people allowing just

everyday people to start companies they

would have never been able to start in

the past because they don't need a a

massive team of 20 people to get it off

the ground. So, I mean, I I've really

enjoyed AI. As far as whether it's a

bubble or not, I mean, the thing about

bubbles is even if you know, even if you

knew for a fact we were in a bubble, it

doesn't necessarily tell you how do you

make money in the bubble because bubbles

can last for years before they fully

unwind.

>> In fact, if you look at the S&P 500

divided by the money supply, it's

actually played out a lot like the late

1990s. In fact, I you know, we talked a

lot about this, you know, back in March

and April, how this whole pattern is

almost identical to what happened in the

1990s. If you take a bar pattern from

1996

right here all the way up into the peak

and you just simply overlay it on the

current cycle,

>> I mean, even the 20% draw down that we

got earlier this year is almost a

perfect match for the 1998 draw down,

>> right? And so if you look at that, you

could argue that where we are in in with

sort of with respect to this is we're

we're potentially like right around this

part where maybe we get another sell-off

and then sort of maybe another two 2%

drop or something in stocks. Um and then

the government shutdown ends, we get

another rally and then we kind of come

down into the midterm year stocks. It

doesn't mean that stocks can't continue

to stay elevated even into 2027

potentially. Um, and that's the hard

thing about bubbles is like even in

the.com era. You know, you could have

been fully aware that you were in a

bubble this entire time, but it didn't

mean the market was going to go down,

right? Like the market did eventually go

down, but it took years. And that's why

calling for, you know, calling tops on

that kind of stuff is so hard because it

can be obvious to like everyone that

you're in a bubble and it and it can

seem like the stock market is so

disconnected from the real world. But,

you know, as you said, right, I mean,

Trump, he's a businessman and he he

doesn't want he's not going to let the

stock market go down without a fight.

Um,

and so I think we have to be sort when

it comes to the stock market, it will

always look for a reason to go up,

right? It it needs Sorry. It needs a

reason to go down, not a reason to go

up.

>> Okay. So, stocks

>> explain that.

>> Yeah. So stocks generally go up because

people got 401ks or just p there's all

these passive flows into the market. All

these passive flows. I mean in fact if

you look at the S&P 500 over a very very

long time period, right? If these are

these are 12 month candles, right? So

these are yearly candles. I mean you can

see pretty clearly that the stock market

generally just goes up and to the right,

right? So that is like the natural

progression of the stock market is that

it goes up. Occasionally it goes down,

but in order for it to go down, you have

to have a reason. The two main reasons

that the stock market goes down, a

rising a rising inflation rate, which is

what happened in 2022, right? So, if you

look at the United States inflation

rate, when the when the inflation rate

goes up, that's a reason for stocks to

go down. And you can see that that's

happened in many cycles in the past,

right? Where inflation's going up and

stocks are generally dropping. Okay? So

this has been nothing new. Um it's

happened many many times in the past. It

happened in the 70s. It also happened in

the ' 40s as well. We had we sort of had

like waves of inflation back then too.

And and when you get those waves of

inflation, the stock market is is

usually selling off. Okay. So that's

reason number one. Now inflation hasn't

really been going up a lot recently. It

has gone up, but no one really I mean 3%

inflation the market's going to shrug

off. Now, obviously, a lot of people

don't agree that it's 3%. They would say

that it's higher, but at the end of the

day, like the data suggests that it's

3%. Whether it's right or not, the

market seems to respect it, right? The

market isn't going to care unless it

starts to go back up to like 7% 8%. So,

inflation going up is one bad thing. The

other bad thing is the unemployment rate

starting to go higher. So if you look at

the unemployment rate, what you'll

notice is that when the unemployment

rate starts skyrocketing, skyrocketing,

that's also a time where stocks can go

down. Okay,

>> now the unemployment rate has been going

up, but it's been mostly in a controlled

fashion, right? It hasn't really reached

that nonlinear point where it just goes

straight up and there's no controlling

it. We are absolutely setting ourselves

up for that at some point over the next

couple of years, but it's so hard to

know exactly when it's going to happen.

And one of the ways we know or we can be

pretty sure that it is going to happen

is if you go look at all the macro

indicators for the job market. Like if

you look at like job openings, they're

really low, right? If you look at hires

in the market, they're also really low.

So people aren't really getting hired.

Um it's really hard to find a job, but

people aren't really getting laid off

either in the way that you would expect

in a massive recession. So essentially

layoffs are basically at the pre-

pandemic levels. They're not really that

high. I mean obviously there's a lot of

headlines, but layoffs are also a normal

thing that happen all the time and

they're not they're not as elevated as

they they have been in some of the prior

recessions. Um but whenever layoffs

start and they start to really increase,

the reason why the unemployment rate

goes parabolic at the time is because

not only are people getting laid off,

but also by the way no one's hiring. so

that it becomes harder for people to

find a replacement job. I want to show

you a chart that shows you kind of what

like how the how the market will sniff

out things. Um it'll always look for the

positive. So this is a map of the United

States and it shows you the states

colorcoded orange have a higher

unemployment rate today than they did 6

months ago. Right? So today you can see

that about 23 states have a higher

unemployment rate today than 6 months

ago. But there's pockets of the country

that the unemployment rate has not gone

up over the last six months.

>> And so when you look back at prior

recessions and like when the market

really had a massive downturn,

it was when the entire country had an

unemployment rate going up, right? This

was September 2008. If you look at the

dot bubble burst, right? If you look at

2001, 2002, again, it was the whole

country. So when you look at it, you

know, since 2021, there's definitely

been times where you start to see like

pockets of the country have a rising

unemployment rate, but it hasn't been

the entire country, right? And and what

the market what the market will do is it

will always look for a reason to stay

optimistic, right? If it can find

pockets of optimism, the market will

still try to go higher. the market will

go lower when there's literally no

reason to be optimistic, right? Like

everywhere is struggling and and that's

kind of when you get these these massive

recessions where there's not like you

can't look at this sector over here. A

lot of people have described like you

know this as a rolling recession where

you've had like a a recession in tech

for a little bit and then you had a

recession in manufacturing and then

you've had like a recession in other

areas too. uh but there's it hasn't

really hit the economy all at once and

so you know because a lot of these

industries are regional there's always

been some pocket of of optimism. Um, so

again, the market has to have a reason

to go down, not a reason to go up. And

the two main reasons that it goes down

are inflation and unemployment. And

right now, we're not even getting any of

that data, you know. So,

you know, it makes it kind of hard. Uh,

but I mean that that could also be one

of the reasons why why crypto is is is

struggling is because maybe it wants

confirmation that that macro is still

okay. Because again, like with stocks,

there's earnings and and like there's

profitability, right? Like there's

there's like an earnings report. Like an

investor can take a look at the earnings

report, see the company's growing, and

then be like, "Yeah, I want to keep

putting my money into that." With

crypto, we don't really have that,

right? Like it's just speculation. Um

it's just kind of liquidity flows from

one project to another, but it's not

necessarily based on profitability. And

a lot of times what what a lot of

protocols will sort of tout as revenue

or profitability is more so just a

circular economy. Um where where the

where the project will just mint more

tokens and then reward users of the

project with those tokens. So the you

the users who use the project, who use

that blockchain, feel like they're

making money, but really they're just

printing more tokens and so they're

diluting everyone's the value of the the

tokens in circulation, right? So again,

that's not really the same thing as as

as sort of like a durable or sustainable

revenue model. And so when you have

periods like the one we're in right now,

this macro uncertainty, I mean, it's

it's obviously taking its toll on on the

crypto market.

>> For our non-American viewers, we're

talking about the uh government

shutdown. So basically, the Congress

couldn't agree on how to fund the

government, but how does that affect the

market? I think for, you know, a lot of

foreigners, they don't really understand

how it works. So, I mean, yes, the

market doesn't like uncertainty, but how

does that affect the market in general?

>> Yeah. I mean, first of all, your viewers

have every right to be confused about

that because like I absolutely think

it's absurd that this is even a thing in

the United States. Um, and I've sort of

joked before like when we talk about

government shutdowns, we don't even have

to like we don't even have to talk about

um like what country we're talking

about. like everyone knows it's the

United States. Like it it it is kind of

ridiculous. But if you think about it,

like one of the reasons why it could

affect things is a lot of people are

getting are a lot of federal workers are

furoughed, right? So they're not at work

and whenever the government shutdown

ends, they can get a lot of back pay. Um

there are a lot of workers that are

currently working because their job is

like essential. They need they have to

work. We can't just not use the you we

need the labor, but they're not getting

paid. Um, so if people aren't getting

paid, that's directly taking liquidity,

right? Like it's directly taking money

away from people that would have

otherwise had it. And then they're just

not able to to invest and things. So

they're they're more worried about can

they pay their mortgage this month? Can

they buy groceries this month? And if if

we don't know if the government shutdown

keeps getting postponed and postponed,

it just it it r it raises the

uncertainty, you know, more and more and

more um because people start I mean,

think about it. It's now been what 5

weeks. And so people have missed

multiple paychecks at this point. And so

the longer that goes on for, the more

difficult it becomes. Now, as as the

longer the government shutdown goes on

for the constituents of of people on

both side of the aisle, right, whether

you're a Democrat or Republican,

historically, both parties get blamed

for the government shutdown. It's not

one or the other. Both sides get, you

know, start taking the blame and and

usually a lot of times the pressure will

come once stocks start to drop. So, you

know, over the last week or so, we saw

stocks start to drop. if they continue

to drop, then the pressure will start

mounting on on politicians to come up

with a with a solution so we can get

things moving back to normal. Um, and in

one case, very clear and it's even

affected affected my family is air

travel, right? A lot of airport a lot of

airports in the United States, we we've

seen 10% I think of cancellations. Um,

there's just not a lot of air there's

not enough people in in air traffic

control. My wife was actually stuck on

the tarmac uh on an airplane for over an

hour. And the reason why was because

they did not have enough air traffic

controllers. So, it's going to it's

leading to it's going to lead to reduced

travel, right? Which is going to slow

things down. It's going to take a hit on

GDP. Um this is all going to have

negative effects and it just takes a

while for it to filter through. And now

that we're kind of in week five, it is

starting to, you know, to affect various

industries. And the longer it goes on

for, the more industries it will start

to affect. And then, of course, with

less liquidity, when people don't have

their paychecks, that leads to, you

know, just overall less investment into

into the market.

>> How long could this last?

>> Well, I think the prediction markets are

suggesting it'll end in about mid

November, but I I have no idea. I mean,

this is already the longest one we've

ever had. I think the second longest one

was in like 2018. If you told me that it

lasts until December, like, I wouldn't

necessarily be that surprised, but I

think if it lasts until then, we're

going to have a lot of issues going on.

So, I I'm I'm I'm willing to be

optimistic and and hopefully they can

end it, you know, end it within the next

week or two.

>> I think I've watched your video and you

said narrative follows the price, right?

So, when the stock market drop,

everyone's looking for a reason. Why is

the market dropping? Oh, it's the

government shutdown. Do you think um the

statement is true? Narrative follows

price and what usually moves the price

first? Like is it psychology, liquidity?

What what is it?

>> Yeah, I mean I think there's a lot of

like just flows like flows in the

market. Um there's like windows of

weakness and and windows of strength

where liquidity tends to to be better

than other times. Um, like a lot of

times in in Q3 liquidity uh tends to be

lower like there's just not as much

moving around and it could be due to you

know all sorts of things but um you know

taxes can be a big big example like when

people are paying taxes and whatnot that

can obviously have have an effect on the

markets

>> um or or flows.

>> I think that a lot of I mean there

there's seasonality I would argue

seasonality is only like 60 to 70%.

There's obviously like liquidity

conditions. I mean, you know, in 2020

when the Fed printed $6 trillion,

obviously that had an effect on markets.

I think the news headlines aren't nearly

as important, right? And and so like

this year, we've seen a lot of news

headlines for crypto that that sound

really bullish, right? They're like,

"All right, it sounds really good, but

Bitcoin's still trading at the same

price it was a year ago." So that's kind

of proof right there that maybe the

narratives don't really mean as much and

that it has more so to do with things

like monetary policy and and liquidity.

And I I think that plays a much bigger

role, right? Like when you have interest

rates higher and higher and higher and

you're you know the balance sheet of the

Fed is going lower and lower and lower,

that's going to reduce overall risk

appetites in higher risk assets like

altcoins. But when you go to lower

interest rates and money printing that

increases the risk appetite. So I think

I think I think a lot of it is is kind

of related to that. I think too like by

the time you see the move in the market

you know it's it's or by the time you

see the headline you you can't really

profit from it because there's way

there's other people that have things

coded up and and whatnot that that

reacts in a much faster time frame than

any any of us could ever hope to react

in. So yeah, I just don't think it it's

a great it's a great way to navigate the

markets because you can come up with a

narrative to you know to to to sort of

explain anything because I mean like you

know kind of coming into Q4 a lot of

people were bullish right and they had a

lot of narratives to support that

bullish view and now that we're not

pumping then people are trying to find a

reason for it and now the reason is oh

it's because of the government shutdown

but in 2013 we had a government shutdown

that literally started the exact exact

same day of the year that this one did.

The exact same day. And then Bitcoin

went up during that government shutdown.

Right. So, um there's not necessarily a

rhyme or reason to that stuff. I mean, I

think a lot of it just has to do with

monetary policy and and overall

liquidity.

>> If it's about liquidity and uh monetary

policy, then why is the stock market up?

>> Yeah, that's a good question. It's so so

crypto is further up the risk curve. So

it it responds quicker to to sort of

lower liquidity and and that kind of

stuff than the stock market does. The

stock market, if you think about it,

>> has a lot more passive flows. Like

there's so many millions of Americans

that are just passively buying the 401k.

So because they're buying or not buying

the 401k, they're buying the S&P in

their 401k. And so because they're

buying like these index funds, they're

buying Nvidia whether they know it or

not, right? They're they're buying Meta

and Microsoft and Google like they're

buying all that stuff whether they know

they are or not and that's lead and

that's why the stock market is not

really a great indicator for the economy

is because like there's all these like

passive flows that happen uh that that

can be somewhat you know disconnected

from what's really going on um in the

economy. So, I think that's one of the

reasons why why crypto gets hit first.

Like if if as macro conditions start to

deteriorate, the the riskier stuff

starts taking a hit first because that's

where people are going to cut their

spending first, right? Like if you let's

imagine you're just like the an everyday

American, you have a job, you have a

401k, and then you also invest a little

bit in crypto, right? And then let's

say, you know, you you start to come

into hard times. Maybe you're furoughed

because of the government shutdown. What

are you going to do first to find

liquidity to pay your bills? Are you

going to go take money out of your 401k

and take a tax hit? That's, you know,

probably not, right? You're you're

you're going to go to the stuff that's

easier to sell that that aren't going to

have those same issues. And the easier

stuff would be something like like

crypto.

>> That makes sense. Um, I watched Anthony

Pompiano, I think earlier this year, and

he was talking about that the government

simply will not allow a recession. Um,

the money printer won't stop. And even

if we see a huge correction and we call

it bare market, as long as you're

holding good asset,

the the price will eventually come up.

Do you think this um this idea is is uh

healthy

>> over a long enough period of time?

risk assets do go up, right? I mean, if

you look at the S&P over the last

hundred years, you can see that. That

doesn't mean you can't go through five

to 10 year periods where that's not

true. You know, there's plenty of of

loss decades where the price the stock

market just goes sideways um or goes up

and down and up and down. That happens a

lot. I mean, do I think they're going to

keep printing? Yes, I think they will.

Um, I think at some point we're going to

reach kind of a a time where

they're going to want to print and

they're going to want to lower rates a

lot, but you might have inflation

starting to pick back up. And so that

could lead to sort of a checkmate moment

for the Federal Reserve because they

have a dual mandate for maximum

employment and stable prices. And so

when you have only one issue, it's easy.

You know, you only have like if you have

rising unemployment, then you have a

clear thing to do. You just lower rates.

If you have a rising inflation rate,

then you raise rates, right? It's not

clear what do you do when you have a

rising inflation rate and a rising

unemployment rate. And that like that

could lead to a dynamic where the

markets, you know, they reach a point

where where we have to go through a

recession, right? Like that is a

possibility. I do think we will have I

mean we've had recessions in the past.

We're going to have another one in the

future, right? Like it's not like we're

never going to have a recession. Like we

will have a recession at some point. Um

and and you know, one of the things that

could happen is as risk assets go up

potentially over the coming years and as

the as the economy becomes harder and

harder for sort of lower income

Americans, that could start to lead to

social unrest where, you know, workers

feel like they can't afford anything and

the people in assets

um just keep getting richer and richer

and so that wealth gap continues to

grow. And if that happens, you might

actually see the long end of the yield

curve go higher if they're not willing

to let a recession happen. Um because if

if if the economy starts to expand again

and accelerate, that's the only way that

that's the only way the long end can go

up. And so I think it could be

eventually they realize that a recession

is actually what we need um to get rates

down. But we're not at that point. Like

we're not at that point yet. And it took

in the 1990s it took many many years for

the Federal Reserve to kind of come to

terms with what what was required. Um

and if you again if you overlay that

with the current business cycle, you

know, that could still be two years

away, right? right? Like it it might not

be until potentially like 2027 or even

2028 before the Federal Reserve reaches

that point. So I I could see a scenario

where Jerome Powell is replaced as chair

in 2026 and they put someone in that

lowers rates a lot, but then that leads

to just inflation coming back. Um and

then the people that that Trump put in

to lower rates might have to do the

unthinkable and raise rates again. and

and and and that is what happened in

1999 and 2000 that finally popped the

bubble is when the Fed ended up having

to raise rates again after they had

lowered them. And so again, like it's a

multi-year process, right? Like I mean

this whole thing could take two or three

more years. Um in fact, it probably

will, right? I think it probably will

cuz you know they're going to stop QT,

they're going to start QE, they're going

to lower interest rates, they're going

to do everything they can to to extend

things. But eventually there will be a a

an economic downturn. Um it's just a

matter it's just a matter of when. And

by the way, one of the reasons for it uh

could be due to AI. You know, like the

very bubble that's keeping prices

elevated. You know, companies are are

are starting to lay people off, right?

they're not hiring because a lot of

these entry-level jobs are being

replaced by by AI. Um, and so while

companies continue to lay people off,

it's leading to to surges in their stock

price, right? Their prices are going

their stock price is going up because

their labor costs are going down.

They're saving money. But where

recessions happen is when you get a

negative feedback loop. When too many

people get laid off, then demand in the

overall economy starts to drop. So that

the demand for the products that those

companies use or create, it drops

because there's so many people out of

work. And when the demand drops for

those products for those companies, it

then makes those companies lay more

people off that then again reduce the

demand for their products. So it leads

to a negative feedback loop. So you

could argue that the the very reason for

the higher valuations right now will

likely be the eventual undoing at the

end of the business cycle. But again

like that that that could still be two

to three years away for all we know.

>> You're talking about the business cycle

and that reminded me of Ralph Pal. He

said the four-year cycle is dead and he

talks about this potential 5year cycle.

Basically the rates stayed higher for

longer QT dragged on and the business

cycle hasn't turned yet. And what he's

saying is that the real top could be

2026.

Um do you lean more towards that or the

four-year cycle? I think for Bitcoin, I

lean towards the four-year cycle. Um,

>> right.

>> But you could have a scenario where you

could where his view could be viewed as

true even if we have a bare market in

the first half of next year. Cuz you

could have a bare market and it be like

every other time and then if next cycle

ends up being a left translated cycle

where you have a top earlier in the

cycle than normal, it might be viewed as

a continuation of the current cycle. But

you could also probably look at it and

objectively say, well, no, we had a bull

market and it topped in Q4, then we had

a bare market in the midterm year, and

then we had another cycle after that.

So, I would view it as a separate cycle,

but I imagine some people uh might view

it as the same. I talked to Arthur Hayes

um in October and he said we are or at

the time we were in an altcoin season

and he said the reason why most altcoins

that we're holding are not pumping is

because they're piece of tokens.

They don't reward holders. Uh but tokens

like Hyperlid and stuff, they actually

went up a lot. So that was his um

altcoin season. What he was saying is

this is what we will get this cycle.

>> We have not had an alt season this

cycle. I don't care what anyone says.

Like all alt season is when altcoins are

durably rallying against Bitcoin. And

you can see it pretty clearly in 2017

and in 2021, right? This cycle we have

not had an all season. It we just

haven't. And in if he said that in

October, you know, by the way, altcoins

put in a new low in October on their

Bitcoin pairs. There has not been an alt

season this cycle. That doesn't mean

there can't be one, but th this is not

what an alt season looks like. Like this

is the the devaluation of altcoins

against Bitcoin. And we might have an

alt season at the end of the cycle, but

we have not been in one. And and I I

think the idea that a single token or a

few tokens pumping is the definition of

an alt season is just simply untrue,

right? Like it it's been Bitcoin season

for the last several years, right? If

you look at Bitcoin dominance,

>> Bitcoin dominance has just been a

massive uptrend for years, right? For

years. And and so the all season that

people are talking about is is sort of

this where dominance like falls off a

cliff. And we haven't we haven't really

had that. Like we've had periods where

it drops a little but nothing, you know,

nothing like what people were were

thinking it was going to be. Like

nothing like what we've seen in the past

where you have these massive drops uh

that that take place over over many many

months. So no, I I don't I don't agree

that that we've had an alt season. I I

think it's mostly just been a Bitcoin

maxi season. You've had a few tokens

outperformed, but when you think about

it, every token that has outperformed

has only outperformed for like one of

the years, right? And and I think the

last time I was on your channel, I think

I was I was talking a little bit about

like Salana. Um and then shortly after I

I think I said in the in the video that

we did that Salana was likely going to

start bleeding to Bitcoin. And I mean

you can see that I mean it did, right?

Like it it has been dropping.

>> So a lot of the tokens that that go

through these rallies against Bitcoin,

they only last for like a few months and

then they just end up decaying, right?

So like Salana did it in 2023. Um, and

you could argue like there's other

tokens that have done it at other times,

right? We saw XRP go up in late 2024. We

saw BNB go up at at um in in sort of

late 2023 a lot into early 2024. But

when you look at their Bitcoin

valuations, right, even if you look at

BNB Bitcoin, it still is nowhere near

the high from like the last cycle,

right? Like they're still really far

down. And so what the the rallies that

we're getting by altcoins keep making

people think that it's an alt season

because that's what they remember.

That's what they want it to be. But in

reality, the altcoin market has been

putting in lower highs against Bitcoin

since 2021, right? Like since September

of 2021, every rally we've had has just

been like essentially a lower high,

right? So I I can't agree with the

statement that that it's an alt season.

I think that you've had selective

altcoins outperform for a few months and

then they start to decay against

Bitcoin. An all season is where every

altcoin or at least most altcoins in the

top 100 are all going up simultaneously

and that's just simply not been the

case.

>> Could it be possible that we don't get

one this time?

>> It is possible. I mean, if you look at

last cycle when quantitative tightening

ended in September of 2019, October or

August, September 2019, when alts

finally bottomed against Bitcoin, it did

not immediately lead to an alt season,

right? Like altcoins went up against

Bitcoin, but it did not lead to like

that phase, the the big phase right

away. And so, I think like we have to be

aware that it could play out like that,

right? Like you could have an example

where you know alt Bitcoin pairs kind of

come down and they get a rally but it

still not be an alt season and we might

just kind of hang out down here for a

little bit and then maybe they start to

go up again next cycle. I think the only

way you're really going to get a a

durable alt season that takes altcoins

back up to like parody with Bitcoin in

terms of their market cap. The only way

you're going to get it in my opinion is

if Bitcoin has a parabolic rally from

here. So, if Bitcoin were to find a low

um and and start to rally and really go

up a lot and then QTN's and maybe Jerome

Powell cuts rates in December, it's

possible to have an alt season, but I

don't think you're going to get a

durable alt season if if Bitcoin doesn't

really start to to move back up, right?

Bitcoin leads the bull market. And if

the bull market's not over, Bitcoin

needs to prove that. And if Bitcoin

proves it, then altcoins might have a

chance. But when you look at that 2019

move uh in the market during

quantitative tightening, you know, when

when when Bitcoin topped in 2019, there

was not an alt season after it, right?

Like altcoins just kind of bled out uh

until until much lower rates happened.

So it is possible not to have an alt

season. But what I would say is if

people more so concentrate in Bitcoin,

then

you can you can decide whether it makes

sense to take a larger position in

altcoins if and when Bitcoin has a big

rally. Because if if you want to treat

this like 2019, in 2019, Bitcoin was

doing the same thing as it is today. It

was taking liquidity from altcoins back

then. It was taking liquidity in order

to stay above $10,000. Now it's doing it

to stay above $100,000, right? So we've

just increased the price 10x. Um, so I

just in order to get an alt season, you

need Bitcoin to really lead the way and

we just haven't we haven't seen that

yet.

>> A couple months ago when Tom Lee was out

with Ethereum Treasury Company, I think

a lot of people were really excited and

they sold their Bitcoin for Ethereum.

Can we look at Ethereum real quick?

Yeah, I mean the first thing I'll say if

you sold it, I mean the ETH Bitcoin

chart, this this drop was always a very

likely outcome for Ethereum to get this

drop. Um, primarily because when when it

topped here, it corresponded with

Ethereum's USD valuation sweeping the

prior all-time high. And I didn't think

that Ethereum's first rally to an

all-time high would be sustained. I

thought it would get rejected. And so

that was the reason why to become

bearish on ETH Bitcoin there. I think

that I think that ETH is likely not

going to start moving up again against

Bitcoin until probably December. Um,

that doesn't mean it can't bounce around

these levels, but my guess is it's going

to take until December for ETH to start

going back up against Bitcoin. I do

think it looks like it's constructive

here, right? Like you have a low and

then you have a higher low and then

another higher low potentially. Um, but

I do think that in the short term, it

will continue to take a backseat to

Bitcoin into early December. If you look

at at 2017, Ethereum dropped against

Bitcoin into early December right here.

That's also when QT is going to end in

early December. Also in 2020, you know,

Ethereum dropped against Bitcoin into uh

December as well. And there's a lot of

examples where Ethereum kind of fades to

Bitcoin into December, right? Even in

2016, Ethereum sort of dropped against

Bitcoin into December. In 2018, Ethereum

dropped against Bitcoin into December.

Um, and so on and so forth, right? Even

in 2019. So, you can kind of see like

from a seasonality point of view, it's

better to kind of fade Ethereum's

Bitcoin valuation in August, right? Like

fade it in in the summer and then and

then get back into it once you get into

into December. Um you you've mentioned

before that alt season never happened

until uh alt and bitcoin pair hit 0.25.

Where are we now?

>> Yeah, I mean it's interesting because I

mean by some measures you could argue we

already hit 0.25. Right now we're at 38

but just a few weeks ago we went all the

way down to 0.29. If you include USDC

into this metric, which you should

probably you could see that it actually

already went to 0.25. So there is some

validity to the idea that like all right

maybe it will find a low but I think

that in the short term it still makes

sense to to be sort of bullish on

Bitcoin dominance into early December um

would be my sort of my base case. If you

look at total 2 minus USDT divided by

Bitcoin you can see that the valuation

we're at today is the same exact

valuation that all Bitcoin pairs were at

in in November of 2017. Right? And there

was a rally by all Bitcoin pairs, but

then they still went to a lower low by

the beginning of December. So, you know,

I think for all Bitcoin pairs, this

includes Ethereum cuz So, so this one

won't go to 0.25. This is because this

one includes Ethereum. I could see this

one dropping back down to that low right

there in June and then finding like a

double bottom on it, which would then

correspond total 3 minus USDT divided by

Bitcoin likely going to a slightly lower

low once again. Um, and then probably

rallying off that. That's kind of how I

think it's going to play out.

>> Um, if you could look at one chart, like

a retail investor that doesn't follow

the market every day, but if they can

look at one chart religiously every

single day, just to time their exit, uh,

what would that chart be?

>> One chart that I like to look at is just

this sort of this regression chart. This

is the total cryptocurrency market cap.

Um, and it just kind of shows you like

kind of like a more broader view of

where we are in the cycle and whether

we're undervalued or overvalued and it

kind of helps you keep tabs as to like

sort of the macro sort of the macro

moves in the market. So maybe this would

be a good one to look at.

>> We are in early November right now. At

what Bitcoin price would you personally

start questioning if the bare market is

ending? We're talking we we talked about

the 50 um week moving average. What is

the price range? You mean the bull

market is ending?

>> Yeah,

>> I would say if we get a couple of weekly

closes below 100K, like we're probably

done.

>> Yeah, I would say. I mean, the 50 weeks

at 103, but I think that 100K level is

is very meaningful. Um, and like in 2019

when Bitcoin gave up 10K, you know, it

it really started to go down. So, I I

think really 100K is kind of the line in

the sand that, you know, as long as

we're above it, sentiment's generally

okay. But when you go below it,

sentiment quickly starts to deteriorate.

>> Back to the altcoin season topic, the

chart that you used earlier represents

the whole altcoin market and there are

so many more altcoins now. Could it be

that even if the chart shows that we are

already at around 0.25 that individual

coins people hold won't move much just

because everything is so diluted right

now? Yeah, I mean it's it's possible.

Though I do think that as as the asset

class matures, I'm I'm hopeful that

investors will will think more clearly

about where they should be putting their

money rather than just throwing it into

like memecoin pump and dump scams

because I feel like that malinvestment

of capital has actually been very

negative for the crypto industry. I feel

like a lot of developers probably just

went over to AI because like what's the

point of developing in crypto when

someone who creates a memecoin is going

to outperform, you know, your your

tokens life lifetime return just because

of because they paid some influencer to

shill it, you know. Um

>> yeah. So yeah, I mean I think there is

some some level of like there's been so

many altcoins and there's only a certain

amount of money that goes into the

altcoin market and so as you liquidity

has just been getting spread thinner and

thinner across the altcoin market and so

it leads to, you know, relatively

lackluster gains in a lot of the

altcoins.

>> Well, a lot of people probably still

hold their altcoin bags right now. What

would be your suggestions for people?

This could be a very good ending for

this video, I think, because a lot of

people have been very depressed.

>> What I would say is is is, you know,

learn your lesson, right? Don't get too

upset. We've all gone through it. Like,

I went through the whole altcoin stuff

in a prior cycle and I have to be a lot

careful, a lot more careful with

altcoins today. Just treat it as tuition

and and don't lose faith in investing in

general because you had a few bad um

investments in the altcoin market. It's

never too late to start doing the right

thing. Um, that's kind of my my view. If

you bought a lot of altcoins, you saw

them go up, and then maybe you've roundt

tripped your bags. Uh, maybe in 2026,

focus more on on accumulating projects

that, you know, you actually do believe

in long term, right? And I think that is

is kind of a good place to start. And

also I would I would tell people to like

to value their portfolio in Satoshi's

rather than US dollars because if you

start doing that like it'll help you

figure out if putting your money in an

altcoin really makes sense. Like I've

seen so many people throw all their

money away into an altcoin that just

keeps on bleeding to Bitcoin, you know,

and they think it's going to change and

then it just never changes and it goes

on for eight years and they still think

they I mean like even Litecoin, you

know, I have the the uh the the the

intern that runs the Litecoin Twitter

account, you know, constantly calling me

out and I mean I kind of like going back

and forth with them if I'm being honest.

Um but you know, if you look at the

Litecoin chart against Bitcoin, I mean

it just bleeds over a long period of

time, right? Like it's not

>> it's not like it's not like I'm saying

that's what I want to happen. Uh but

it's just what happens to a lot of these

projects. They they have their cycle in

the sun and then they just bleed out to

Bitcoin for the rest of their for for

the rest of their life their lifespan.

Altcoins are not a long-term investment.

They're a short-term investment. Bitcoin

is a long-term investment.

>> Altcoin as in all altcoins are just

smaller ones.

>> All coins all altcoins are are shorter

term investments. I mean, I own

Ethereum. I bought some Ethereum back in

April, but how can I with a clear

conscience say it's a long-term

investment when it's trading below the

price it was trading at in 2021, you

know?

>> Um, and and we're now four years later

and Ethereum is trading less than the

price it was trading at in November of

2021. Um, so like it and again, we

watched the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation

go from 0.085 to 0.017. 017, right? To

me, that's not a long-term investment.

That's like, you know, you want to try

you want to try to time when it bottoms

against Bitcoin and maybe ride that

wave, but it's not necessarily a great

long-term investment.

>> A lot of Chinese speaking audience buy

Cardano. What is your view on that?

>> Yeah, so one of the things I said a long

time ago, Cardano was going to go to uh

400 Satoshi's and everyone said why it

wouldn't happen. And what's funny is is

my prediction was too optimistic because

at least on Binance it went to 261

Satoshi's. Um so when you when I look at

a chart like this it like I mean it's

just been bleeding for a long time. When

it comes to ADA the main chart I look at

isn't even the Bitcoin valuation. It's

the Ethereum valuation because when you

buy an altcoin you you want it to go up

against Bitcoin. If it's not going up

against Bitcoin, then you really have to

question like like like what's the

point, right? If you are going to buy

it, then before you buy it, look to see

what it's doing against Ethereum because

I think you could argue that Ethereum is

essentially could be, you know, could

act as the index for the altcoin market.

And the problem is that ADA just

continues to bleed against Ethereum as

well. So, you know, and I used to be

very bullish on ADA. I mean, you know,

some of the very first videos on my

channel, I was talking about ADA when it

was less than $2 back in 2019, and I was

very bullish on it. And I mean, it

ultimately went to $3. But I also look

at a chart like this, and I just see

lower highs and lower lows, and I have

to ask myself like, is that a long-term

investment? And to me, like if I see if

I see it bleeding to Ethereum and I see

it bleeding to Bitcoin, you know, do I

really want to sit in it for 4 years

just so maybe once every four years it

has a nice little rally? Probably not.

So, you know, it's a tough call. I I

will say that if it's going to get a

rally against Bitcoin, it'll happen

within the next two months. If it

doesn't happen in the next two months,

then

it's probably not going to happen. Like

there's plenty of charts that look like

this where people think they're going to

to find support at the range lows and

then they just don't. They they end up

putting in a lower high and a lower low

because you could look you could look at

this chart and see that technically

that's a lower high and a lower low. So

you might end up starting to see lower

lows as well. Um so that's kind of what

I would look at. And and just to give

you an idea of like what I'm talking

about, if you look at some of these

relic altcoins from prior cycles, like

Dash, that one's been popular recently

because it's been going up, right? Like

it's been kind of making its way through

the news. But even in this case,

>> like you can see there there used to be

kind of a range low for it as well that

it would hold as support and then

eventually it it just kind of fell off

and and then bled a ton. Um, and of

course now it's getting a nice rally and

usually, you know, once every four or

five years, like it'll it'll get a nice

rally, but it it doesn't mean that it's

not eventually just going to continue

bleeding. Um, so that's kind of what I

look at. But again, yeah, I mean, some

of these older altcoins have certainly

started to to to rally recently, but I

mean, even in this case with a with a

token like Dash, you know, it's still

down 99% against Bitcoin, right? like

these rallies that look really great.

Again, they're it's still down 99%. And

that's kind of the that's kind of the

reality that that most altcoins

eventually face is that like if you hold

it long enough, you might find a several

hundred% rally, but you still would have

been better off holding just Bitcoin.

>> I love that you make it very simple and

even a person that is not as technical,

it is very easy to understand. And if

you want to check out the charts that

Ben uses today and all the charts that

he uses to time the market, you can

check out the description box below.

There is a huge sale going on.

Definitely check it out because it could

really help your trading and investing

strategy and your journey. Well, Ben,

thank you so much for being on the show

today. Um, you have a huge fan base in

Asia. Please come back soon.

>> Thanks for having me. Pleasure to be

here and yeah look forward to coming