Bitcoin Bounce — Can Buyers Keep Control?

Bitcoin just exploded off its recent lows. But is this the start of a serious

lows. But is this the start of a serious rebound or just another short-lived bounce? Well, in this video, we're going

bounce? Well, in this video, we're going to explore some really unique metrics that dive deep into the volume and order flow, which are things you can't measure from the surface to uncover whether

buyers are genuinely taking control or a selling pressure could still be holding back the rally. So, let's get into it.

Bitcoin has had a pretty strong relief bounce from the low $80,000 levels. And

today we're going to explore some key technical analysis signals to see whether this bounce is going to be short-lived or whether we can expect a further rally from here. Now, first up here, we've got something called the

volatility envelope, which maps the full range of price volatility by anchoring the price, shown here in white, to a statistical basis and wrapping it in multiple standard deviation bands to

show how stretched or compressed market conditions are relative to their own behavior. And when the bands are really

behavior. And when the bands are really wide, like they are now, volatility is high. And when the bands compress

high. And when the bands compress conditions are more calm. And we can see that anytime the bands expand incredibly quickly, like they've done here, it means the volatility has expanded way

too rapidly in one direction. And that

reversal is almost always expected, at least to a certain degree. And when we look back since the start of this bull market, this is actually one of the largest expansions in volatility that

we've seen this entire cycle.

Now, with the price currently in the low 90s at the current time of filming we're actually now trading in the expected one standard deviation volatility envelope, which ranges

between $89,000 and $106,000.

So, this essentially means that this is where price is expected to be on a volatility basis right now, and we're still right on the lower end of that envelope. So from my perspective, being

envelope. So from my perspective, being at the lower end of the envelope after such a massive volatility expansion suggests that the market has absorbed a lot of the selling pressure and maybe setting up for a more controlled

rebound. And structurally, it points to

rebound. And structurally, it points to a shift where buyers could start asserting themselves without the extreme swings we've just seen. Or in other words, the setup favors a period of price stability before the next

directional move can properly become clear.

Now, this next one is super interesting because it allows us to look at Bitcoin's traded volume in a unique way.

Now, most people look at volume and just get confused, which I totally get. Like

what does it actually mean? Well, this

indicator reconstructs volume analysis from the ground up by weighting each bar's volume according to where the real price movement happened inside the candle, filtering out that empty noise

of the wicks and highlighting any parts of the bar where actual pressure was applied. So essentially, instead of

applied. So essentially, instead of treating every volume spike as equal, it isolates which ones actually carry directional intent, whether buyers or sellers were genuinely driving price

rather than just stirring the pot. But

putting all these technicalities aside this indicator really reveals whether price moves were actually powered by committed buyers and sellers or simply by lowquality volume without real

intent. And what we can see here is that

intent. And what we can see here is that we've had some really extreme red readings occur. And these mark the

readings occur. And these mark the moments where seller-driven impact overwhelms normal conditions. Not just

high volume, but high quality volume where downside pressure is concentrated in the parts of the candle that matter most. And these are the bars where the

most. And these are the bars where the market throws a real punch. And it

explains why price dropped like a stone recently. And because that kind of

recently. And because that kind of aggressive displacement is often unsustainable, these clusters of extreme red readings can often flag the exhaustion of a trend. the point where

sellers are overextending themselves and the probability of a counter move or a full-scale reversal starts to rise quite a lot. So, if those big red readings

a lot. So, if those big red readings kind of indicated to us that a reversal was extremely likely, now that a reversal looks like it's in full swing what are the readings telling us now?

Well, what we can see is that immediately after the big reversal we've actually had only a small green reading in the volume impact. And when

small green readings appear right after a heavy red reading, it's not that just buying has just showed up. It's that

buyers are stepping in without immediately blowing all of their energy on an oversized spike. And that

restraint often hints at a healthier underlying demand, which is absorption first and then control pressure second.

And when we have big green spikes straight after a big red spike, it can sometimes signal the opposite, that buyers are overextending too quickly with a sugar rush of enthusiasm that can

fade just as fast. But when you see this modest green blip after a major red pulse, it's the market signaling two things at once. One, that sellers have just lost their bite, and two, that

buyers are taking control quietly, but without burning through all of their fuel first. And that to me is a

fuel first. And that to me is a combination that's really important and often gives a potential reversal more durability because it starts with structural strength rather than just an

emotional overreaction.

Now let's take that volume analysis to another level by looking at the hidden orderflow divergence. But let's quickly

orderflow divergence. But let's quickly start by explaining what order flow is.

Now if you've been around markets for a while, you'll know this term quite well.

But if it's new to you, at its core order flow is essentially the real pressure behind every move in the market. It's the actual buying and

market. It's the actual buying and selling that's actually pushing price.

And again, similarly to what we just spoke about, when we watch order flow we can see whether price moves are actually being backed by conviction or if they're just drifting along without

real force. Now, this indicator takes

real force. Now, this indicator takes that orderflow concept and actually makes it measurable. Each candle on the price chart tells a story and this indicator breaks it down to see how much

of that move was real buying or selling.

It compares that volume pressure to how strongly price is moving within its range and when they don't match, like when price is rising without real buying or falling without real selling. This

oscillator flags the divergence instantly. Positive readings highlight

instantly. Positive readings highlight hidden buying pressure, while negative readings highlight hidden selling pressure. And the extreme spikes flag

pressure. And the extreme spikes flag points where the imbalance is unusually strong. And those extreme spikes, like

strong. And those extreme spikes, like the one we're seeing now, are really powerful. Big red spikes often signal

powerful. Big red spikes often signal climactic selling, which are the most powerful and which often precede sharp reversals to the downside, while big green spikes highlight overwhelming

buying pressure that frequently lead to strong upside moves. And right now we're seeing the largest green spike of this entire cycle, which even after this bounce strongly implies a significant

reversal to the upside is currently underway and that the market isn't fully exhausted yet and the reversal may still have more legs to it.

Now, finally, it's not all guaranteed upside from here because when you look at the price action structure itself it's incredibly bearish still. And as

the saying goes, the trend is your friend until it isn't. But when we got down into the low 80s and pushed right through the lower boundary of my sigma trading channel, I knew that a reversal

in the short term was more than extremely likely and we've now bounced back towards the trading channel's fair value line in the low 90,000s.

So while the volume based metrics are giving strong support to this reversal the real confirmation won't come until we decisively break above the $93,000 fair value line.

Right now, price has been caught in a consistent rhythm, oscillating between the lower boundary and the trading channels fair value line. So, for this reversal to truly take hold, we need to

reclaim that level with confidence and backed by solid volume. Only then can we say that the trend is genuinely shifting and that buyers are firmly in control again. So, from my perspective, the

again. So, from my perspective, the nuance here is really how the market is digesting this rebound. It's not just the size of the bounce that matters, but the quality behind it. How buyers are

stepping in, where the pressure is concentrated, and whether these early signals show genuine structural support rather than fleeting emotional reactions. So, my take here is that this

reactions. So, my take here is that this bounce feels like it still has more room to run. The combination of structural

to run. The combination of structural absorption, modest green volume readings after the heavy selling, and the largest hidden buying signal spike of this entire cycle all suggest that the market

isn't done yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin push towards the upper half of the trading channel, testing that $93,000 level and potentially moving beyond that if buying continues

steadily. That said, I'm watching

steadily. That said, I'm watching closely for how the market responds at that $93,000 level because without confident volume backing a clean break any rally will almost certainly be

capped and a reversal back down to the lower trading channel boundary in the low 80s becomes almost inevitable.

So, to wrap things up, there's an interesting concept that you might not have come across before, and that's not all trading volume is created equal.

It's one thing to watch spikes in trading activity, but it's another to understand where real buying and selling pressure is happening and whether it's actually moving the market. And that's

what these metrics here today show. They

reveal when price moves are actually driven by committed participants rather than just fleeting conviction.

And on top of that, the hidden order flow gives us another layer of insight.

When the price and the underlying order flow diverge, it's a clear signal that there's more going on beneath the surface than what's obvious on the price chart. And that's often where you'll

chart. And that's often where you'll find the clues that point to a sustainable reversal. And right now, all

sustainable reversal. And right now, all the signals are showing that buyers are quietly gaining control again, which is nice to see, and I do hope they keep it up. And finally, we've got to put this

up. And finally, we've got to put this clear bearish downtrend into context.

And that's where the sigma trading channel becomes useful. Seeing price

hover between the lower boundary and the fair value line tells us that this reversal is still in progress and definitely not over yet. But until we reclaim that $93,000 level with

confidence and backed by volume, the trend isn't fully confirmed. So from my perspective, watching how the market reacts to these levels over the next few sessions will be the clearest sign of

whether this rally has real legs or if the bears are ready to take back control again and push the price lower.

If you're serious about Bitcoin analysis, my full custom indicator suite is now live, built for investors looking to gain an edge through deep cycle

signals and advanced onchain insights.

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