Can Betting Markets Predict the Future? Top Polymarket Trader Explains

I'm drawn in general to chaos. Will

aliens invade the US is probably trading at 4%. Will Jesus return to Earth is

at 4%. Will Jesus return to Earth is trading at like 2 and a half%. Being

averse to taking losses is probably the number one mistake that people make.

Today's guest is a professional prediction marks better. His name is Domer. He's been in the game since 2007,

Domer. He's been in the game since 2007, far before the houseion days of Poly Market, back when we were um slumbing it on in trade and predicted. Domer

initially got into this world through poker, then got sort of bored and confused by financial markets and for a long time has been betting on stuff like

elections and wars and legislation and lots of other fun things that I think are really important and relevant as prediction markets become a new and

fascinating vector to understand the world in the future. Domer, such a pleasure to have you on China talk.

Thanks for dropping by. Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm excited.

having me. I'm excited.

>> All right, so let's do the 101. Um, how

do these markets work and how are they different than, I don't know, buying Apple stock or betting on a sports game, >> right? So, I I guess it is a little bit

>> right? So, I I guess it is a little bit similar to betting on a sports game. The

the most popular market by far is who's going to win the US presidential election. You know, this comes around

election. You know, this comes around every four years. It's not just people in the US that are interested. you know,

people around the world like to root or bet on this and you know, you can think about it um in terms of zero to 100 and it assigns odds. So, for instance,

Hillary versus Trump, you know, all the way back to 2016, I think Trump going into election day was 30% to win. So, if

you wanted to bet on Trump, you bet, let's say, $3. And if he loses, you would have gone to zero. And if he wins, it goes up to 100. So you'd be able to

get $10 back, right? So it's basically a 0 to 100 type of situation. You either

win zero or you win 100 depending on what you're betting on comes to fruition or not.

>> Gotcha. And just for some context, we now have eight figures betting on the outcome of the New York City mayor election. We have $200 million of volume

election. We have $200 million of volume traded on will Zalinsky wear a suit before July. So currently I think it's

before July. So currently I think it's important to know that uh these markets are very liquid. You have um millions, tens of millions of dollars. I think we

we got into the billions when it came to the presidential election. But even on very niche topics like uh a Romanian u mayoral election, there was $6 million

of volume which have been traded in total on that. So, um, this is no longer a niche thing. And I think sort of dismissing these numbers out of hand of like, oh, this isn't, you know, you're

not getting the like quote unquote like price discovery that you would for um, you know, the amount of trading that happens with Nvidia or Apple is not necessarily the case. Maybe uh maybe this is a way to get out this question

domer is like how have you seen um as these markets have gotten larger and more popular like how uh you know the relative like efficiency change in them over time.

>> Yeah. So they have gotten a lot bigger since I started. I mean when I first started if you made a $10,000 bet you were a big whale. Now it's like okay you're just the little minnow minnow in

the sea. But you know as they've gotten

the sea. But you know as they've gotten a lot bigger they've also spread further. You know, whereas when I first

further. You know, whereas when I first started, there were basically two big markets. Um the one big market, who's

markets. Um the one big market, who's going to win the presidential election, and then the second big market, who's going to win the best picture in the Oscars, right? And now it's kind of this

Oscars, right? And now it's kind of this widespread thing that encompasses many countries, tons of races, uh economic things, you know, like what's the Fed

going to do? So that it's become far more widespread in terms of the topics that it covers and the interest level and and what participants are interested in as well.

>> So, you know, I'm very curious for like what the professional version of this looks like? How would you sort of

looks like? How would you sort of describe your process? Let's pick

something slightly more esoteric than a presidential election. like what what is

presidential election. like what what is um maybe you want to walk through the pope example or or another kind of like market you've you've been thinking about like what does it take to develop alpha around these topics?

>> I mean so I would say the the basic level in terms of like what do you need in order to do well at these markets? I

would say you need to be number one a curious person and eager to learn about something and then number two kind of like an enjoyer of the news like someone

who likes following the dayto-day ins and outs of you know news stories you know to get into the pope example in particular you know papal conclaves only

happen like let's say every 10 years 15 years how however many years um these are not like in and out like people people are not experts in this you have to like go into the archives in order to

figure out what happened last time and read these stories from 15 years ago about how this thing kind of played out.

So, you have to kind of be able to train yourself and kind of be able to look at all the contours of an event and because if if you think about, okay, what

happens when one pope passes away and they're about to select a new pope?

Everybody that's interested in betting on this is starting at like the same starting gate, right? And so you're competing against, let's say, a thousand other people. Everybody starts at the

other people. Everybody starts at the same starting gun, right? It's a matter of can you research it faster, better, more accurately than your competitors.

So that's kind of I I guess the basic contours of of my job.

>> Yeah. And I think what's what's sort of interesting that you've said in past podcasts is like even with something as like as niche as a Romanian or election

or Israeli politics, it's not like the betting pool is all Romanians or all Israelis who are all reading sort of news in the local languages or even if there are a handful of them like the

like the center of gravity of that market is rubberneckers from around the world. um who such that like there isn't

world. um who such that like there isn't the the sort of like local edge you necessarily get isn't quite as pronounced as you might expect it to be.

>> Right. Yeah. I I think that's mostly true. You know, the center of the

true. You know, the center of the election will be people that aren't necessarily subject matter experts, but it will draw in, you know, a minority of

people who at least live or impacts, you know, this event will impact them more.

So, it will attract in that level of interest and new players and and stuff like that, which doesn't necessarily mean that they're smarter. You know,

being closer to the event, maybe you're more biased. If you have a personal

more biased. If you have a personal interest, maybe you're showing up to be able to bet on this guy that you're rooting for. Well, as whereas me, an

rooting for. Well, as whereas me, an American, I've never heard of this guy in my life, so I don't really have a rooting interest. So there there are

rooting interest. So there there are different things that factors that go into play in terms of whether someone that actually is impacted by the event comes and joins the party.

>> Um let's talk a little bit about the the argument of social utility that these uh markets bring. I mean, having accurate

markets bring. I mean, having accurate betting lines on the Knicks and whether they're going to win on any given Tuesday night and sort of having a price discovery function for that does not

seem to me to be particularly like net positive for the world. Um, but it's very different where you're talking about, you know, are wars going to start, are wars going to end, sort of

elections and whatnot. as prediction

markets have grown in salience and uh sophistication, how has your thinking evolved about what sort of broader utility these markets have?

>> Yeah, I I think that's a great question because if you think about a world where prediction markets don't exist at all, right, and you're trying to figure out whether there's going to be, for

instance, a recession this year, who you're going to be relying on in order to inform that decision are usually going to be pundits, right? And the

world of punditry, it doesn't reward you if you're right. It doesn't really punish you if you're wrong. It's just

kind of revolves around entertainment.

You know, is this pundit is he convincing? Is he entertaining? Is he

convincing? Is he entertaining? Is he

saying interesting things? That that's

kind of the world of punditry. It's not

necessarily punishing you if you're wrong or rewarding you if you're right.

So prediction markets are kind of just like the next level of punditry, which is not that they're like a solution.

Like if Poly Market says that the chance of a recession is 25%. That doesn't mean that we have the answer, right? It's not

like nobody came down from heaven and said, "Oh, it's 25%." We have no idea.

But it's kind of like a more advanced pundit tree and you are punished if you're wrong and you're rewarded if you're right. So I mean it it it's kind

you're right. So I mean it it it's kind of like punditry with skin in the game.

So I I guess that's how I would kind of view it. And obviously prediction

view it. And obviously prediction markets encompass more important topics than um necessarily like for instance sports games or whatever. Which is not to say that betting on sports isn't fun

or important or maybe people are interested in it. It's just a different a different facet of being able to predict things. you know, as you start

predict things. you know, as you start to see kind of news stories that talk about the prediction markets and the

politicians sort of being able to feed off of the news stories like I I think in particular Mom Donnie over the past few months like as that number was creeping up from 1% to 5% to 10% like

this was a very kind of tangible way for him to tell his story of his momentum.

um you know do are you seeing more of these kind of feedback loops of like the prediction markets like manifesting in reality which then end up manifesting in prediction markets? Uh it's a very

prediction markets? Uh it's a very interesting question because it's kind of like is the tail going to start wagging the dog in terms of like because

if it does then it could become a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy where someone with deep pockets can go on to one of these markets and bet themselves personally up and then it's like oh I have momentum. Oh, look, here's proof.

have momentum. Oh, look, here's proof.

Oh, somebody's betting on me. My price

is going up. Right? So, it can kind of be a little bit of a feedback loop. And

in fact, there there's this >> um back in 2012, I'm not sure if this story interests you at all, but back in

2012, um there was the GOP nomination was kind of like a clown car, right?

There were a bunch of people going up and down. Herman Kaine, Mitt Romney, who

and down. Herman Kaine, Mitt Romney, who ended up getting the nomination, Scott, uh, Rick Perry, all these people go up and down, and every week it was like a new front runner, New Gingrich. And

interestingly, in the summer, somebody on Intrade was buying boatloads of Donald Trump, like ridiculous amounts of Donald Trump, way above where the market

could be. And I was thinking to myself

could be. And I was thinking to myself like this might literally just be Donald Trump or one of his minions because back then the market wasn't as liquid. Maybe

the person spending like $50,000 doing that which is a lot but it's not like you know it's like a commercial. So it's

like is this guy going to be running and is he trying to like boost himself? So I

thought that was an interesting aside but yeah so so go back going back to your question is the tail you know does the tail wag the dog? Yeah, I I I I think there are interesting feedback

loops and the other part of it is like you know how liquid these markets are is like sometimes the markets have more liquidity than the event seems to be

important you know like for instance Zalinsky wearing a suit which we can get into but >> well it's it's interesting because the sort of like I I remember there was this whole story

in the 2024 election around the French you know who's this whale who's buying up Trump, who basically bought it up like, I don't know, five or six points or something. And it only cost this

or something. And it only cost this person $25 million, which in the in the context of a presidential election is like, as you said, a handful of ads,

which like maybe might win you a few votes as opposed to creating an entire sort of news cycle of like, wow, someone knows something they don't. And voters

like to vote for a winner. Um, and you know that that dynamic, it seems like a very affordable thing, especially if you're talking about a a a a New York City Democratic primary where all it

would have cost would would be yeah, 50,000 100,000 bucks to get Brad Lander's name on the map or something as having a little uh as having a little bump. So, I'm surprised it isn't

bump. So, I'm surprised it isn't happening yet. I I guess we'll we'll get

happening yet. I I guess we'll we'll get to that world sooner or later. And maybe

these these markets just need to be liquid enough for someone to make enough money on the other side to to buy it back down.

>> Yeah. I mean, one interesting thing you you know, you mentioned the French whale. You I was kind of the one that

whale. You I was kind of the one that helped break that story, but one of the really interesting things is people would like DM me their guesses and the number one guess by far when the story was like first breaking is like this is

probably Elon Musk because he has started a super PAC. He has tons of money. It's like this is a drop in the

money. It's like this is a drop in the bucket to him. So, it's like it made total sense that one of the benefactors would be the one doing this, not necessarily this true believer who

hadn't been investigating and doing polling and stuff.

>> Yeah. But it's interesting because some of the, you know, the sort of like narrative reinforcement cycle of this stuff seems to be most relevant for

elections. Um, but there's, you know,

elections. Um, but there's, you know, there are ones where it's basically one person making a decision, right? Like,

is Trump going to bomb Iran? Is

Netanyahu going to bomb Iran? Is Hamas

and Israel going to make a peace deal?

Like, will Zalinski wear a suit? And um

the sort of momentum getting behind these things is unlikely to like influence or maybe it does. I don't

know. Um uh maybe maybe we'll get to the point where these numbers are so salient that like a president will feel like they're letting people down or something if they don't do the thing that the

markets expect them to do which then might kind of be self-reinforcing and play into their calculus.

I I think this is a very interesting and relevant question and I'm not sure that I have a good answer for it, but I but it is something that I grapple with like whether the markets could theoretically

get quote unquote like too big for the actual events that they're trying to predict.

>> Well, and the other thing is there's no SEC, right? Right.

SEC, right? Right.

>> Like inside there's no insider trading and like there are plenty of people who know if a lot of these things are going like no one knows who's going to win a presidential election, right? But like

there are many of these markets where there are point um decisions where I don't know if I'm some random person in Iran working in the IRGC and I have a you know this is my one opportunity to

make $10 million because I know if we're going to you know attack America back or not like why not? I mean how do you think about the sort of insider trading dynamic? Um and has it manifested at

dynamic? Um and has it manifested at all?

I mean the the interesting thing is that I've been doing this for such a long time and from the inception people think that big swings like their first

reaction is oh some insider is betting on this market and 99.9% of the time it is has nothing to do with an insider.

It's a true believer or somebody who clicked the button by accident or what what have you. But I I feel like lately with the markets getting so big, you know, you're kind of becoming more

suspicious. And there was one there were

suspicious. And there was one there were a few markets recently where it was like, what will Israel do? And these

accounts that are like newly created and they're funded with like, you know, $100,000 or whatever come in, they only bet on this one market. Israel is going to do XYZ. It happens and then they

withdraw it. It's like, I don't know.

withdraw it. It's like, I don't know.

like this seems this seems like something like exactly the behavior that an insider would do. So, you know, as the markets become bigger, my my initial

99.9% of the time it's never an insider starts to become, you know, I'm not sure that that holds up given given how much money is involved. Yeah, it's

interesting because specifically on the international relations stuff like you know there are DOJ indictments about like how much you know when they catch people spying like how much money they

make and it's like if you're a really good spy and you're really good at selling secrets like you probably make a few million dollars. Like once these markets are big enough where like you

can make $10 million in an afternoon and it's crypto and no one knows about it.

um or you can convince yourself that you're not going to get caught. I mean,

there's a this is like I think I think a new dynamic that a not not a ton of sort of national security establishments or intelligence agencies have really processed is um you know, why sell my

secrets to the Chinese when I can just like you know quote unquote like tell the world 24 hours or even like 3 hours before something happens um by making a

bet on it and then you know retiring six months later and moving to Bermuda.

Yeah, I mean you're exactly right and it's untraceable and etc. So, but I, you know, I do think the arc of these markets is towards regulations. So, I'm

not sure, you know, it's going to be this is a 20-year problem, but it might be a problem over the next few years as we try and figure out the regulations on this stuff.

>> So, what is the I don't know. Do we have like you know, you're going to have to trade with a with a driver's license? I

mean, like what that would probably solve some of this, right?

>> It could. I mean that this is a fraud issue with not only crypto but you know trading in general as far as like the depth to which you examine your customers and their funds but um yeah I

mean if if you're going to put up markets that are sensitive for national security you know and you're going to try and be trading in a country where those national security things are very

important then it does seem like the arc of this of these markets is going to be towards disclosure and not obfiscating what's actually happening on these

markets.

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check it out the next time you need something transcribed. So Dormer, what's

something transcribed. So Dormer, what's your take on this sort of like broader ethics and where you would draw the line? I mean, we already have markets

line? I mean, we already have markets which are pretty close to death markets of like when will a leader lose power?

And I mean it's not I think it's like not phrased literally that way for for very smart legal purposes, but um I don't know where would you draw the line on like what's not acceptable to trade

on?

>> You know, it's it's a hard question because like like if you just think about a straight war market like will Russia and Ukraine like get into a war and you rewind like

four years like this is a really really important question. like people should

important question. like people should know the answer to this. Like we should be trying to figure out what the answer to this is and prediction markets are really really good at at figuring this

stuff out. So it's like yeah I I I see

stuff out. So it's like yeah I I I see both sides of the argument because it does feel a little distasteful because obviously it's not just economic impacts, it's not just world impacts,

but like people on an individual level are going to be hugely impacted by this and in possibly negative ways. So it's

it in that aspect it feels unseammly.

But to me I I think the importance of the event kind of overtakes the unsemliness of it because it's just like >> we're answering questions that kind of

need to be you know we need to assign a probability to some of this stuff to an extent.

>> Yeah. I mean, I think sort of one class of questions which makes me really uncomfortable and it doesn't really exist on Poly Market yet, but like occasionally it will show show up on

Manifold is like these very personal ones of people who aren't celebrities.

It's like if you're in high school and you can make a betting market on like whether this this and that couple will break up. Um I don't know. It's kind of

break up. Um I don't know. It's kind of like the way that like no one's allowed to bet on high school sports is it's and like you can't do prop bets on college athletes. this is just like, you know,

athletes. this is just like, you know, you don't need to expose like anonymous individuals to stuff. But, um, I don't know. And then, you know, you also have

know. And then, you know, you also have this this sort of like sci-fi arc of like um I mean like a lot of those Biden markets were kind of like Biden death markets.

Um and the the sort of assassination connection um to uh that that it seems like there are in some of these does

feel a little unsemly but you know like having some sense of like the probability that uh you know Putin will succeed in assassinating Zillinsky is like a useful thing but then you know

you have some horrible incentives where like someone bets on it and like commits an assassination. I mean there are

an assassination. I mean there are enough crazy people out there, right?

Um, I don't know where I'm going with this, >> dormer.

>> Yeah, I mean, I think I think it's it's something that we need to grapple with for sure. I'm I'm not sure that I have

for sure. I'm I'm not sure that I have the answer. I I do agree that not

the answer. I I do agree that not everything necessarily deserves a market and where we draw the line in terms of what's a market and what's not a market. You

know, we need to kind of think hard about that question.

a as you trade and as you see these markets move, I'm curious for the sort of balance of slow versus fast thinking.

um where on the one hand, you know, you mentioned the pope earlier about how you want to understand how past conclaves play out and like at the backgrounds of all the different players and whatnot,

but um you know, once news starts happening, these markets can move very quickly and it seems like there's a lot of money that's made in, you know, won and lost and sort of responding to uh to

breaking news and like processing it in the right way. So how do you think about that conceptual difference and how has the sort of speed of these markets changed over time?

>> I mean it used to be that if you read some tweet and you log into the market like it might take minutes for that tweet to fully be incorporated like by

tweet I mean like some breaking news event which usually is encapsulated with like a quick tweet. So, but if you look at what's happening recently, like in the past few months, if you if you take

more than 3 seconds to react, like you're way you're glacially slow. So,

the the speed of these markets adapting to news has just, you know, it's just so much faster than it used to be. So, you

have to be very very very uh careful and quick in how you're reacting to things.

But then you know the second order effect is like okay now that the quick reaction has happened like let's think slower about this. Let's kind of figure out has does this actually make sense?

Because sometimes the initial move in something is not necessarily correct.

>> And is there like algorithmic trading um in the way there is on on sort of public financial markets or is it still or is it just like a lot more people who click

a lot faster still?

Yeah. So, actually someone with someone with a VC firm was actually asking me about this the other day because I think they're looking at it. Um, I know at least two people have tried it and I don't think there was really much level

of success. Well, I know in one instance

of success. Well, I know in one instance cuz I invested in this guy and he now works for an AI company. So, that it didn't work out for us, but it worked

out for him, I guess. Um, but yeah, so it it has not been successful yet that I know of. I mean, who knows? Maybe there

know of. I mean, who knows? Maybe there

are people with secret polymer market accounts that are using AI agents, but um it you know it's coming.

>> Yeah, it's interesting because like you know we we are we are now very much at the world where the the AI sort of like processing the quarterly report and you

know listening real time to the conference call uh earnings. It will do it faster and probably better than the than the analyst sitting there. But the

fact that that hasn't come to poly market yet, I guess is partially a function of the there just being less money to be made. Um, but I mean maybe there's something also about these markets being much more idiosyncratic

than like comparing this quarter's Walmart returns to last quarter's Walmart returns.

>> Yeah, I'm I mean there is a very strong qualitative element to it, not necessarily quantitative. Not that AI is

necessarily quantitative. Not that AI is necessarily amazing and quantitative either yet, but yeah, there are idiosyncrasies, there's intricacies, there's, you know, you know, little

things in the rules that may alter a market either this way or that. So, it

yeah, AI is not quite at that level yet.

>> Are there teams trading yet? Is it still mostly like an individual game?

>> Um, I I I think at the high level, yes, it is individual. I know that teams have been created around the presidential

election um because there's a lot of information out there and you need to get it very quickly. So I know teams are created for the US presidential election. I was on a team for that uh

election. I was on a team for that uh and actually the previous two elections.

So um but yes, most of the time I I like to say it's kind of like Ronin, right?

We're we're kind of individual samuris kind of just going about our lives. uh

we talk to a lot of the other Ronin but not necessarily coordinating with them.

Um so yeah I I talk with people all the time but it's all individual pretty much.

>> That's it's interesting. I mean this is like again the financial parallel of hedge funds right is like you know you now have like entire uh I I mean you know many of the almost all the most

successful hedge funds have like dozens if not hundreds if not even a thousand person strong research teams and like I don't know I I'm sure you can imagine

what a like what would a 10 person team like you know may could you talk me through an example of a um a market where you

traded in where like you felt like if you had if you could duplicate yourself and you had sort of like more research you could get um more of an edge or is it sort of wider coverage where you

think there's more alpha like what what could a what could a 10erson outfit um potentially do in the space?

>> Yeah. So, I mean, people have approached me about forming a team. So, so I I know a little bit about it. And I I think where you would really want to focus is

making sure that everybody has different strengths. And probably also, you know,

strengths. And probably also, you know, if if I were building a 10person team, I would want, you know, somebody who's really strong on politics, somebody who's really strong on like foreign

politics, somebody who's really strong on quantitative things, um, modeling, statistical modeling, and then I would also probably want to duplicate each one of those people, um, so that there's two

people doing the same things. Because

the other thing about prediction markets that doesn't really get as much focus in terms of comparing them to financial markets is prediction markets are 24/7.

The news does not sleep. Like if you're trading financial markets, you can safely get your eight hours of sleep. I

mean, not necessarily that you are, but I mean, you could theoretically and not miss any news whatsoever, but prediction markets, sleep is the enemy. It's very

it's very dangerous to sleep. So if

you're building a team, you'd probably want redundancies and then also a widespread uh level of expertise in a lot of different areas.

>> Um are there sort of you know you said you talked to a lot of other people in this space like I don't know give it give us a little anthropology like who are who are these folks who make up the

the majority of trading in the market.

You know, I come from a poker background and I I I think a poker player is actually probably a good like kind of benchmark to think about these players or the the people that are betting on

these markets. It's mostly young men who

these markets. It's mostly young men who like taking risk, who are good at math, good at analyzing things and, you know, interested in in in the world. So, it

that's pretty much I would say describes 95% of people using prediction markets.

>> Yeah. Well, it's interesting because like poker, right, is like getting better at poker. You're getting better at this like very closed system, right?

And there's an aspect of like, okay, you're reading human beings or whatever, but like um you know, every every new market you are exploring, you are

learning something um which is novel, right? And it's about a new country or a

right? And it's about a new country or a new situation or new politician or you know something about the economy or what have you. So, it's a, you know, it's a

have you. So, it's a, you know, it's a different like layer of curiosity of like, well, there's a different type of curiosity of someone who wants to like memorize all the openings and chess um or memorize all like the, you know,

hands and and and and ratios and and correct playing strategies in poker and someone who's like willing to play in such a open-ended space as um uh as uh

political prediction markets. Yeah, I

mean I I would say a poker player or a chess player is very math focused and also very very very good at pattern recognition which is also you know reading the opponent you're reading

patterns. So I I that is an element of

patterns. So I I that is an element of prediction markets, but to your point, the other element of prediction markets is kind of like creative thinking and being able to pivot from one topic to

another that may be very disperate and may not be related at all, but you can notice some similarities and and quickly come up to speed on a new topic. So

yeah, I would say it's not only the chess thing, but also or the poker thing, but also creative thinking.

Um, I guess another thing is like the sort of like there's not a lot of like emotional veilance and connection that you have with any given poker hand aside

from your sort of personal investment in it as opposed to, you know, a war starting or a presidential election. I

mean, I'm curious sort of how uh you and other folks have like trained like almost is like anesthetized. Maybe

that's not the nicest word, but like maybe just like divorce yourself from the actual developments in order to, you know, be a more a more clinical analyst of this stuff.

>> Yeah. I I mean, I was just nodding non-stop to that question because it it applies, you know, you have to kind of divorce yourself because, you know, I'm a person who reads the news. I watch a

lot of news. I follow the news. I'm I'm

well aware of the world. I talk with other people. You know, I talk with um

other people. You know, I talk with um my spouse. And it's like, so I have very

my spouse. And it's like, so I have very strong opinions and you have to kind of put leave those opinions at the door, which is very hard to do. Um, or you

know, if if if you're trying to predict something that you want to happen, maybe kind of limit yourself to only a couple hundred bucks and not really not really trying to make a living doing betting on

things that you want to happen or betting against things that you don't want to happen. So you you have to both Yeah. number one, put it at the door,

Yeah. number one, put it at the door, and then number two, kind of like self-limit yourself and not get too involved in something that you want or don't want to happen.

>> Speaking of a topic people have a lot of strong feelings about, um, you know, a lot of politics and a lot of these markets are modeling the thought process

of Donald Trump. Um, what are the sort of mental models of his decision-m um, which you found most helpful over the years?

Well, I the big level view of Trump is that he's very chaotic and chaos is great for prediction markets because you know if you just have a president like for instance Biden Biden not did not

fire a single cabinet secretary. I think

the only cabinet secretary that left he was like going to become the commissioner commissioner of the NHL.

So, um, if you have this very boring presidency versus this very chaotic presidency, obviously the chaotic presidency is going to be much more conducive to predicting what's going to

happen next and people also following what's going to happen next. Um, but the interesting thing about Trump is is he's kind of changed between his first presidency and his second presidency

because in his first presidency, he was firing people all the time. Like I I think he probably had three cabinet secretaries fired within six months or whatever it was. Like it left, right, and center it was just like there was a

controversy fired. This time he's kind

controversy fired. This time he's kind of just like weathering through it. And

the interesting thing, the interesting kind of model of this presidency is he's kind of moved to like an Elon Musk type

of overpromise, underdel, especially on trade deals, right? he's like constantly trying to, oh, we're going to whack this country, but then it comes down to it and it's like, oh, no, we're we're we're

pull we're pulling back. Um, so yeah, it's it's interesting not only trying to get into the mind of Trump, but also the way in which Trump has changed from one

presidency to the next, because he's gotten in some ways less chaotic, but then in other ways more chaotic in terms of how he's dealing with um economic

policy in particular because, you know, it's very hard for a company to plan if they think there's going to be tariffs one day and tariffs the next day or not tariffs the next day or whatever. So, it

it's a very different type of chaos in this in this second Trump presidency, >> the sort of reality television framework for this. Like, how have you applied

for this. Like, how have you applied that in the past?

>> Well, yeah. Somebody who is smarter than me said a long time ago that if you want to figure out who Trump is going to, let's say, pick for something, right?

Print out pictures of everyone that he's considering, right? And go up to a

considering, right? And go up to a random person and be like, "Who would you cast for a TV show if you were casting, you know, a Supreme Court justice, and the person that that they point to is probably who he's going to

pick?" Cuz he's he's like casting his

pick?" Cuz he's he's like casting his show. So that's sort of like the the way

show. So that's sort of like the the way that I think about Trump is a lot of what he's doing is focused on like what is the best present like he like he's

the star of a TV show and that's how he treats a lot of what he's doing not only personnel like are they good on TV but also like policy is this does this sound

strong do I look strong right so a lot of what he's doing is kind of entertainment focused and that's obviously his background as well you know he's been a showman since the 80s since kind of he took over from his

father. So, um yeah, I I think that is a

father. So, um yeah, I I think that is a very strong core tenant of Trump as like the entertainer, somebody who's trying to keep people engaged with what he's doing, a marketer, things along that

lines.

>> What are your heristics in I don't know fake news separating fact from fiction?

>> What do you mean by that?

what you have to do as someone who works in prediction markets. Um, sort of once you do your basic research is this, you know very

you know, high stakes money on the line, uh, uh, effort of news literacy, right?

is like you have this mental model of what you think is happening and then there are new data points and you have to sort of process and react to them and at the same time you are watching these markets move of other people sort of

reacting and processing them. Like are

there sort of news uh literacy heruristics that you think are sort of just like broadly useful as a citizen or maybe like category errors

that you've seen these markets based on who's in them like make over time where they overread or underread into like a specific type of new data point that emerges.

>> Yeah, I I think that's a really interesting question. You know, there's

interesting question. You know, there's two facets of it that I'm thinking about. Number one is kind of like fake

about. Number one is kind of like fake news, right? If one of the markets

news, right? If one of the markets recently is will Elon Musk form his own party and he's, you know, made this big announcement and he's there's a lot of fanfare with it. Whether he he actually

does the paperwork, you know, TBD, that's kind of what the market is about.

But recently there was this filing with the FEC, you know, pretending to be the American Party. It was not actually

American Party. It was not actually true, right? But someone who is new to

true, right? But someone who is new to prediction markets may see this FEC filing which is very official. It's on

the FEC website. Like somebody actually filled it out and it has Elon Mus's name. You know, they're going to see

name. You know, they're going to see that. They'll be like, "Oh, the market's

that. They'll be like, "Oh, the market's over. He formed it." Yes. Easy money,

over. He formed it." Yes. Easy money,

free money. But somebody who's been doing this a long time knows that people make fake FC filings all the time.

Right. So it's like comes from experience and also being able to distill kind of fact from fiction. Um so

yeah. So if if you've been doing it a long time, you're definitely on the lookout for fake news because fake news happens all the time. And I would say actually it's increased in frequency

lately. Um especially with people trying

lately. Um especially with people trying to create fake news in order to profit from it, whether it's financial markets or prediction markets or whatever. So

the second part of your question that struck me was kind of like how do you know which reporters to trust? which is

a very very very important part of especially if you're predicting American politics because in American politics there's dozens of reporters that are reporting on Congress, the presidency,

etc. And a lot of the focus is kind of on day-to-day drama. Is this bill going to pass? This person just said this, you

to pass? This person just said this, you know, this this is happening. And you

have to be very very very careful about who you trust. And you know, as you're the longer you're doing it, the more you learn that like for instance, the Punch Bowl guys, you know, people that are in

this space get tons of newsletters every single day, right? And so Punch Bowl is like one of the main ones, Politico. So

if if you're getting the Punch Bowl newsletter and you see, okay, the the head of the Republican party in Congress is saying this and this and this and it looks like maybe the bill is in

jeopardy right?

Right. While Punch Bowl is they're constantly slightly exaggerating whether a bill is in danger of passing or in danger of failing. Like they

really play up the drama. So the the longer you're in this space, the more you realize like the intricacies of reporters, who you can trust, who is like reliable, who is constantly

exaggerating what is happening. So, it's

very important as a as a trader to kind of like be able to distill between what's happening and what's people kind of are trying to pretend is happening.

>> Um, want to >> uh Yeah, I mean it it is like it is an ineffable thing which I think you know

only really comes from like following these stories in real time and seeing how people behave, right? And so it's a it's a hard thing to kind of just like, oh yeah, like any punch bowl headline

I'm going to like give a 20% discount factor to in my model, right? It is it is more nuanced and sophisticated than that.

>> You know, as I've dabbled a little bit in the legal markets that are open to uh US citizens. Um it it has been a

US citizens. Um it it has been a remarkable learning experience and humbling experience as someone who yeah has been um while not betting in these markets for 15 years has been following

news pretty damn closely and professionally for uh you know at least since 2013 and only trading in markets that I think I know and like being wrong

a lot I think has just taught me a lot about uh you know probabilities and and degrees of confidence and um these markets are real now and they're liquid

enough to like have a lot of signal in them. So I think it is it is a really

them. So I think it is it is a really useful exercise for people who um you know work in and around politics uh to

as you said go from a pundit to someone who has um uh you know who's who's forced to discipline their thinking and their opinions about the future um with

a market. And that didn't really exist

a market. And that didn't really exist until relatively recently. whereas sort

of market uh sort of financial market participants were able to have that learning experience of uh you know taking views and seeing them play out correctly or incorrectly and kind of

gaining uh context and and and experience over time. So, I don't know.

So, you know, don't don't get addicted.

Don't spend a lot of money on this stuff. I don't uh sort of endorse

stuff. I don't uh sort of endorse gambling here on China talk, but in as a sort of learning tool um uh to understand what the world is like

spending putting $10 in account and kind of trying to market size and and and react to news, I think is a is is a worthy experiment to to to at least do

for a month in a uh in a topic you're interested in. Yeah, I mean I I would

interested in. Yeah, I mean I I would second that. I I think it's fun to do

second that. I I think it's fun to do even if you're just doing five bucks or 10 bucks because if if you're following it anyway, you know, it gives you like a little bit of a rooting interest like if you're watching a sports game or

whatever. So from that aspect, it's

whatever. So from that aspect, it's really it's really fun. The the other thing about it is is I like to say that prediction markets are are kind of easy

if if you know what you're doing, but it's also similarly very easy to lose a lot of money very quickly. Like for

instance, if you rewind to last year, like the Trump versus Biden debate, like there were whole accounts that are just gone now because they didn't think there

was any chance that Biden would drop out even after the debate. And I was like, I don't know, like I'm not going to stake my account on this. It seems it seems a little sketchy. So, it it's not just

little sketchy. So, it it's not just about being able to predict things correctly, which I don't think is that hard if you if you're familiar with the space. The really hard thing is being

space. The really hard thing is being able to avoid the pitfalls and not betting against things that are actually more likely than you think they are.

All right. So, so Domer, there was a um uh there was like three lines in the one big beautiful bill um which got a lot of professional gamblers very worried. Uh

why don't you why don't you give the audience some context?

>> Yeah. So, in the House version did not exist. In the Senate version, nobody

exist. In the Senate version, nobody noticed it, I think, until after it passed. So, it was like three little

passed. So, it was like three little lines and it said that for people who are either betting professionally or even non-professionally,

right, if you you can only deduct 90% of your losses. So, what does that mean? If

your losses. So, what does that mean? If

somebody is gambling recreationally and they win $10,000 and they lose $10,000, right? So, they're just recreational,

right? So, they're just recreational, even gambler, didn't win any money. If

you can only deduct now 90% of your losses, you can only deduct 9,000 from that 10,000. So, all of a sudden, even

that 10,000. So, all of a sudden, even though you didn't make any income, you now have $1,000 of taxable income. Well,

you can imagine some professional gamblers if you multiply that times 100 like all of a sudden they have phantom income that is very large and they go

from maybe owing 20,000 to owing 120,000 or what whatever it may be depending on the circumstances of the specific gambler. So it can have a very

gambler. So it can have a very deleterious effect on not only um sports betterers but also poker players. uh TBD

on whether it impacts prediction market traders because there is some leeway there where you can count it as a capital gain, you can mark it as a future or whatever. So, it really depends on on the future of how IRS

classifies prediction market winnings.

So, but I mean anything that's bad for poker players or sports players I view as kind of like akin to prediction market trading. So, it's very very not

market trading. So, it's very very not good.

>> Well, I don't know. Maybe your markets are about to get a whole lot more liquid. Domer, if um uh the sort of all

liquid. Domer, if um uh the sort of all the unpredict un unsocially productive sports gambling uh gets uh shifted into uh having more efficient trading on

markets that are actually useful for the world to have numbers around.

>> Yeah. I mean, I guess more competition is coming, which is not necessarily a great thing, but we'll see how it goes.

One thing that is kind of interesting about prediction markets is like often there are rule fights over things that you cannot possibly see coming. Like

this Sinsky suit where he kind of wore a suit but he kind of didn't wear a suit and then it devolves into a rule fight and then all of a sudden you're arguing over the judges. Like it's easy to

imagine that happening with Taiwan if like China's like, "Okay, this little outlying island that nobody lives on, we're going to take it over." But

Taiwan's like, "Well, it's our island."

And but did they invade or did they not invade? So, I mean, it it's easy to see

invade? So, I mean, it it's easy to see how these markets that are important, like we should have a market on whether China invades Taiwan, could get

railroaded by very minute details. So,

currently, will China invade Taiwan right now has three half million dollars of volume and an 8% chance of happening in 2025, according to Poly Market. Um,

and it's defined as we'll resolve to yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by the end of the

year. Um, you know, what are the sorts

year. Um, you know, what are the sorts of things that you've seen move that market in the past? And, uh, I don't know, what does 8% even mean?

>> Yeah, I Well, so, you know, you you kind of have to look at things not only from the event itself, but also kind of like the riskless rate, right? So markets

that don't expire for a long time, they're going to trade in the probably around the mid single digits no matter what. So you can kind of factor that

what. So you can kind of factor that into your analysis. So what what it's basically telling you, it's a very very very low chance of happening, right? And

but the other interesting thing about that market, I feel like is that it's kind of correlated with what's happening in with Russia and Ukraine. you know, as

Russia has more success, that market may start to push up. And not necessarily this year, but you know, if that market existed for 2030, maybe it's trading at

25%. And if Russia starts to have a lot

25%. And if Russia starts to have a lot more success, maybe it moves up to 30%.

Because these these events are kind of correlated and the reaction of the US to what's happening in Russia Ukraine also has a lot of impacts on on that market

as well. So I I think the interesting

as well. So I I think the interesting thing is kind of how it correlates with the other things happening in the world.

>> I think the risk-free rate concept is an important one because when I see 8% I'm like that is insanely high but um you don't get you don't earn like the

treasury rate for holding a position on poly market. Um

poly market. Um >> so I mean like will aliens invade the US is probably trading at 4%. So there are a few like will Jesus return to earth is trading at like 2 and a half%. So there

are markets where you can kind of figure out what the riskless rate on the site is like this is 0% chance of it or you know very very very small percent chance of happening and so kind of everything

pivots off of that. So I would view the real odds as probably closer to four to 5%. Which is still way too high in my

5%. Which is still way too high in my opinion but you know people disagree.

you know, you can earn like 3.9% or something by having like a owning a treasury bill for a year. So, um,

getting to two and a half for like aliens or like Jesus being resurrected, it's like people will pay 2.5% to like have a meme stock or like how,

you know, do the logic out to me of like, you know, how we how we have these markets where like you will not make any money and it sits for a long time.

>> Well, I'm not I'm not sure what the logic is on the people who are buying.

Yes. But the but bonding as a general concept is very popular in prediction markets where you're betting on events that you at least think are impossible.

So for instance, aliens landing. I mean

that it's not impossible, but it's so unlikely that it's very very close to zero. And plus, if you lose the bet

zero. And plus, if you lose the bet anyway, I'm not sure you need to worry about money. So um yeah. So so the

about money. So um yeah. So so the riskless rate on prediction markets usually sits in the mid single digits for a year. I mean, it's usually maybe 2

or 3% above the bond rate in the US.

>> Gotcha. Um,

what would you sort of say to policy makers or folks working on this stuff in Washington about how they should, you

know, think about and interpret, you know, what they see in a poly market?

Well, first of all, I would focus on the liquidity, right? So, if if it's a

liquidity, right? So, if if it's a liquid market, if it's a lot of volume, then there's been a lot of thought that went into this market and there's a lot of money involved, right? So, it's not

just like people like random people making bets and just trying to, you know, move prices around for fun. Like,

people treat this very seriously. So,

number one, I would say assuming that the volume is is substantial and it's pretty liquid, I would say number one, treat it seriously. Um, number two, the other thing I would say is it's kind of

going back to what I was saying earlier, it's kind of advanced level punditry, right? It's not just people being paid

right? It's not just people being paid to have opinions. It's actually like, okay, this is very, very important whether I get this right or wrong. So,

it's kind of the next level of people figuring out what's going to happen in the future. So I would kind of dub that

the future. So I would kind of dub that advanced level punditry. And then number three is, you know, there can be some quirks on prediction markets that cause

events to not necessarily be reflective of reality. Like for instance, like will

of reality. Like for instance, like will the US get a Air Force One jet from Qatar, right? You can you can look at

Qatar, right? You can you can look at that. That happened let's say 6 months

that. That happened let's say 6 months ago or whatever it was. um actually

taking possession of the jet may not happen for 3 years, right? But the big announcement may happen immediately. So

sometimes there's a little bit of lag between announcement and event happening and that can cause prices to be a little bit of skew from what you think they would be. So it's it's always important

would be. So it's it's always important to at least pay a little bit of attention to what the rules are in terms of like what the event's trying to predict.

>> What's been the like what's the most fun for you? Are there particular countries

for you? Are there particular countries that you've really enjoyed getting to learn or like questions that have I mean aside from the money-making aspect like what is um you know what are sort of learning journeys that you've gone on

that you found to be most intrinsically rewarding?

>> Well, I'm not I'm not sure that I think about I I have more fond memories of like monetarily rewarding than intrinsically rewarding, I guess. But

like the the countries that that I enjoy following the most are kind of like the most chaotic countries. Like if you look at Israeli politics or Italian politics

or um a few years ago it was like South African politics where it's like things are very chaotic and it's not like you know if if you look at what's happening

in Canada for instance where they just kind of rejected a populist and reelected the technocrat and they've had the same party and leadership for a very long time like this is a very stable

country whereas if you look at Israel like there's elections like every 9 months maybe at this point or in Italy where they're switching parties from

year to year. Um so I you know the chaotic countries are far more fun because there are more events they're repeatable right and you you know the ins and outs whereas people maybe who

joined the site a year ago don't know about these six other Italian elections that you've predicted in the past seven years or whatever. So, um, yeah, I'm I'm

drawn in general to chaos, I guess.

>> Not necessarily in a negative way, but like in a fun way, like dynamic way.

>> Gotcha. Yeah. It's like the the sort of like the oil trader energy when it comes to prediction markets. Yeah. If

everything's too predictable, what's the what's the fun in that? It's interesting

just how homework pays off, you know, as an American who doesn't, I don't know, speak Hebrew or Italian, like what's it

what's it like getting your handle on a foreign country's politics? Or do you speak Italian? I don't know.

speak Italian? I don't know.

>> Uh, no, no, no. I only speak English.

And poco de espanol. So, uh, you know, number one, you're subscribing to newspapers in foreign countries, which can be a little bit hard to sign up for because you're not sure what what you

should type in the sign up fields. Um,

and then you're also kind of like, you know, you're you're trying to get to a base of knowledge that and like it like you have to kind of pretend that you're a prediction market trader in in Italy.

Like who are the top political people that I need to follow? like who are the smart um analysts? Like what accounts do I need to be do I need to be following?

So you you have to kind of get up to speed. And then the other facet is often

speed. And then the other facet is often I'll be like watching like Israeli TV and I have my phone out and I'm like literally holding my phone up to the TV and like translating the Chirons in real

time so I can understand what they're saying. So it can get a little bit

saying. So it can get a little bit ridiculous sometimes, but I mean it's fun. It's it's funny. It's fun. It's

fun. It's it's funny. It's fun. It's

it's a lot it's a a lot of work, but it's rewarding.

>> Um, if you were going to teach like a college class on learning how to make money in prediction markets, like what would what would you put on the syllabus?

>> Oh, that's a really good question. I'm

not sure. Um,

I mean, so in my Twitter profile, I have a list of books. You know, I'll I'll go back to what I was saying earlier. Like,

I would probably because it's easy to teach people how to read politics and how to learn about politics. Like, if

you immerse yourself enough, you can get caught up. you you can, you know, if you

caught up. you you can, you know, if you get the Politico newsletters, if if you're following people on Twitter, if you watch um Meet the Press, if you're watching the nightly news, like you can

get into it pretty quickly. The harder

part is knowing how to react quickly and not making um big mistakes. And so from that perspective, I would probably like

teach very quick reacting like more like a poker element and more like um you know managing your bankroll. So there's

a lot of intricacies that would go in it beyond just the knowledge element. It's

kind of like how you think and how you react and how to not make mistakes. So

those would probably be the the things that I would focus on.

>> Like the the mental ability to be calm when you have those big market swings, I think is especially because like the AI can't do it for you yet, apparently.

>> Yeah.

>> Um I don't know. We'll throw some meditation classes in there, too.

>> Yeah. I mean, the the number one mistake that I see people making, especially when they first join these markets, is being afraid to take a loss. like loss

aversion is such a strong thing. It's

like, "Oh, I put a 100 bucks in. I'm

going to try my hardest to get 100 bucks out." Like they're so averse to taking

out." Like they're so averse to taking that $20 loss and and being at 80 bucks.

Whereas me who's been doing it a long time and I think I'm wrong on something, oh my god, I'm I'll gladly take that $80 and maybe I'll put it on the other side and then try and get my money back that

way. But yeah, be being averse to taking

way. But yeah, be being averse to taking losses is probably the number one mistake that people make.

>> All right. Well, Domer, uh, best of luck out there and thanks so much for being a part of China Talk.

>> Yeah, thanks, man. It was a pleasure.

>> All right. We're continuing our prediction market themed episodes with Jonathan Zubkov, otherwise known as Ziebadger. John, welcome to China Talk.

Ziebadger. John, welcome to China Talk.

Thank Thank you guys for having me.

the the insider trading stuff like you haven't felt that sort of start to happen yet?

>> Yeah. No, I a few times. A few times.

So, there were just like KCI in particular and I believe Polly did the same thing got like very granular and like okay like these people are going to

be the cabinet secretaries. Now we're

getting like individual markets on which senators will vote for them. Uh a few times uh this year there was just like

very obvious movement on uh certain senators with no update information um that indicated that there was some

insider uh level going on. Um there are people and I I'm not even sure how I feel about this. There are people who think like it's it should be the most

efficient pos market possible and if somebody from Susan Collins's congressional office wants to put the information out into the market that

she's going to vote to confirm uh RFK Jr. then that is making the market the most efficient possible. Um,

so some people believe that. Um,

others uh do not think it's very unfair and there's a lot of new people who are just going to get rolled over because of

that. I'm I'm not really sure how I feel

that. I'm I'm not really sure how I feel about it. It's not fun when you're on

about it. It's not fun when you're on the other side of someone like that and your shares crash, but um it probably does make the market more efficient. How

has uh AI changed your research process um if at all?

>> It's really helpful. Um you can get like a lot of analysis, a lot you can get

research that would have taken hours and minutes. Um for all the reasons it's

minutes. Um for all the reasons it's helpful for everyone. Um it's helpful for me. Um, I I will say right now like

for me. Um, I I will say right now like the dumbest people that I go up against are the ones who are just like, but like I asked Claude this and they said this,

why why am I not uh winning right now?

Like that that happens all the time on like R or like I just on random stuff like I asked Claude what the temperature would be in Central Park today and they

said 77. July is 72 when stuff like that

said 77. July is 72 when stuff like that like that those are probably like the like biggest zeros right now. Um I've

also like I also use AI to like I fed like my trading log to GPT and it was like pretty helpful what they sent back

like I like you lose the most when you buy in this percent this uh price range.

like um I've had like I keep spreadsheets for various markets. I've

had chat TV analyze um like my own data um keeping stuff and came up with like various trends. Um

various trends. Um >> Oh, that's fascinating. Can you talk a little more about that? Like what like so like you you you're not good at estimating like 70% or something like what did it tell you?

>> Yeah. So, I like lose the most in like it's not even like the 90 range cuz typically when I'm buying in that range.

Um, it's like pretty obvious. Um, I only do that when it's pretty obvious and it's usually the higher end. Uh, yeah,

the 80 the 80 range is my worst uh range apparently. Um, and I I tried to I it's

apparently. Um, and I I tried to I it's just a range where if I like if I would rationally explain it and it's a range where it looks like something's obvious

to happen, but there's enough that could go wrong that it could send my shares underwater to a point where I get like

very uncomfortable and either sell or like just end up losing. So, it's yeah, that is uh that is something I'm trying

to grow from. Um, and I I thank Chad GBG for showing that to me. But, yeah, it's there's a lot of ways you can analyze your own performance and data.

Definitely.

>> That's fascinating. Yeah. So, what what are some other cuts that people look at when trying to think about their their past performance?

Uh they look like they look at like their top five biggest wins, like top 10 biggest losses. Um stuff like that

biggest losses. Um stuff like that can be helpful for me. I I know what those are off the top of my head. I

don't need >> GBT to tell me that. But uh like uh you can look at like the price points that you uh typically win at like uh how

often you um sell shares before a market ends like stuff like that. Um that can be helpful to how how you do um selling

shares before a market ends versus holding shares to completion of a market. Uh which one you do better on

market. Uh which one you do better on various things like that. There's a lot of helpful information. uh that you can get from it.

>> Yeah.

>> Cool. Are there any other sort of specific markets uh or like other war stories of I don't know how things go very right or very wrong you you want to

you want to share?

>> Yeah. So there there was the the biggest like all the sharks lost market would be the Romanian election that just

happened. Um, and it was like a big like

happened. Um, and it was like a big like so it was a two- round election. Uh,

round one happens and like the rightwing nationalist guy gets like 42%. No one

else was even close. So literally every person I know dumped a ton of money into that guy winning. And then these are

people mostly in the US. And then the Romanian bookmakers come out and had the second place guy like vastly

different like vastly closer like it was like basically 50/50. So it became like this war between like the prediction

market traders who were like analyzing like the towns in Romania in round one and thinking they had it figured out for like on poly market specifically. You

get all these people from Romania who are just joining on and just being like the the like nationalists want this guy

to win like and they're manipulating the odds like to make it look like this bad this guy's going to win and this is like terrible for Romania

and all the and they like slowly like bring the price of the other guy like well past 50/50 to the point where he's favored and uh Romanian ians were

correct. That guy did win. And all of

correct. That guy did win. And all of us, basically every person I know got like totally smoked by these Romanian

bookmakers and citizens of Romania.

>> It was not a good one.

>> That's amazing. Shout out Shout out to Romania. We got to find uh

Romania. We got to find uh >> I don't want I don't want to miss.

>> If you're on the other side of that and want to come on China Talk, uh you know, the floor is yours.

>> That would be great. And then the next week, the same people I I I know this because there like the you can track the accounts on on Poly Market. The same

people like doubled down on Poland or something um and just got totally smoked. like the exact opposite happened

smoked. like the exact opposite happened where like the like the right-wing guy like was like instead of being like favored this time, they brought him all

the way down to like 15 cents and he like won easily or something and all these people who made all this money like the week or two weeks prior just got totally eliminated. I don't think

we've heard from them since. Is this a common trend of like a a constituency just makes a lot of money on a market and then is like, "Oh, this is easy."

And then they lose it very quickly.

>> Yeah. I I would expect I would expect with uh the New York City mayor election for like whenever the next hot progressive comes along, I would expect

that person based on the people winning money from Mandami. Um I would expect that person to then be way over inflated

and just like eventually those people will then uh lose. Uh I would Yeah.

because a lot of people made a lot of money there. Uh Cuomo at one point was

money there. Uh Cuomo at one point was 93% to win. Um and then like even the day of

to win. Um and then like even the day of because of like anecdotal turnout reports in the Bronx he was at like 60

to win or something stupid like and then like within five minutes it was just like oh it's over. Okay. Like good game.

Uh it's just he lost immediately. So I

would expect the people who made money on Mandani to um give it back eventually. It's a very common thing

eventually. It's a very common thing like people like when the Trump like was the previous thing when like the maggot candidate would win they would like the next one would just be like too high and

then like they would like that first one lose. Very common experience.

lose. Very common experience.

you I want to come back to this sort of like you're not great in 80% land. Um

are there sort of yeah >> particular personality types that you have observed are more sort of like attracted to different to betting at

like different percentiles.

>> Yeah. I I know I know one dude who only bets on the weather every day and

only bets at like 97% and above. So he waits for the day to

and above. So he waits for the day to play out when it's like clear what the high will be in like the various eight cities where Kouchy has markets and he

only puts out orders at 97 to 99 and he gets his bonds for the day and he's probably made like $100,000 doing that.

like the a it's the only way he trades and it's something that people should get like take the edge from him, but

nobody that's not like fun to it's not like fun to put out 99 cent offers in eight weather markets and like monitor the

time when you should do that. That

sucks. And it's also like the one out of like 10 times where like you might be slightly wrong, then that like really sucks and that's really not fun. So he's

obviously good at that. Um but yeah, there are people who only look for bonds. Uh so a mention market will be

bonds. Uh so a mention market will be like uh Trump is uh giving a speech and we're going to put up a market for each

of the words that people might think he'll say. So, like we'll put up a

he'll say. So, like we'll put up a market for Teriff, we'll put up a market for Sleepy Joe, we'll put up a market

for um Epstein, like all all various stuff like that. Um, so there is one dude I know who will just put one cent

orders uh for no out on every single share and just hope somebody or for yes and for no and just hope somebody hears the wrong

thing and then buys his shares and makes a mistake. And this guy has made like in

a mistake. And this guy has made like in three markets I've seen him post like $15,000 uh screenshots uh just from somebody

hearing the wrong thing and making um a bad mistake. So yeah, people have

bad mistake. So yeah, people have different strategies. Um it works for

different strategies. Um it works for them. It's these are the type of things

them. It's these are the type of things where you would think like that doesn't seem like it should work out, but um it's right now a lot of these aren't the

most efficient markets and a lot of people can take advantage in different ways.

>> Okay, awesome. All right, John, thanks so much for being a part of China Talk.

>> Thanks,