D51. What are Predication Markets

So today I'll talk about prediction markets and uh so these are the main four topics that I will talk about. The

first one is what are prediction markets.

Then how is it different from traditional petting platforms. The third one is technology and the working process. So this one I won't go

working process. So this one I won't go very deep into it because even I'm not very aware about the technical workings at uh in depth. All I know that it works

on the blockchain platform. So that's

what it is. But then also I'll try to cover a bit and most importantly I want to cover the fourth point like what are the practical

uses of this. The first one I want to cover it from an investment perspective how it can be how it is used and the second is how is it beneficial to

society in general. So these are the four areas that I want to cover.

So I'll start with uh what prediction markets I'll show you the homepage of poly market first. So have you have you heard

market first. So have you have you heard of the name poly market earlier?

No months. I researched it after you told me about it but before that I have not heard of it.

>> Okay. So even

uh me like only this month only in on November onwards I started to learn about what prediction markets are, what is poly market and so on.

So it's recent it's a new thing for me too relatively. So what I've learned is that

relatively. So what I've learned is that here it's almost like in it's a combination of both like betting and investing but uh it's it is much more

white in nature like for example if you're investing you can only invest in stock markets like in companies that's all and betting is mostly you can bet on sports

I think so that's the only mainstream one maybe there are some other things I don't know but mostly you can bet only on sports But this

>> uh you can you can vary in a lot of different areas. So I'll go into this

different areas. So I'll go into this but I have generated some definitions of what prediction markets are. So let's

look at that and then we come back to this screen again and some of those things.

So okay let's look at this first one. So it

says prediction markets are platforms where individuals can trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events also known as information markets or event derivatives. They allow

event derivatives. They allow participants to essentially bet on the result of future events ranging from political elections to sports games to economic indicators and so on. Okay, so

that's more of a formal definition and I have generally a few more.

This is a much more nontechnical I would generate. Let me see how it says.

generate. Let me see how it says.

So prediction markets are like stock markets for future events. But instead

of trading company shares, participants buy and share buy and sell contracts based on outcomes such as candidate A

will win the election and so on.

And the price of a share is between uh 0.01 01 like 1 cents 200 uh two to

$1. So $1 is 100 cents and 0.01 is 1

$1. So $1 is 100 cents and 0.01 is 1 cents.

Okay. So and this can also be why is it between 0 and one? Because it can also be translated as the probability of occurrence of that event based on the

perception of the public. That's why

it's between zero and one because the one means $1 means it's 100% care that probability of occurring. Zero means

there's no probability and so on.

Okay. So these are the two definitions that I found.

Okay. Now let's look at this one.

This is the trending like this is these are the most trending bets that are going on.

Okay. So let's look at some of those.

Okay. Let's suppose

this one which company has the best air model Android end of 2025. So as per the I also had I also mentioned it why is it

different from traditional markets? I'll

also come to that one. Uh but first let me just look into this. So there are all of these companies named listed and right now the public perception is that

Google by the end of 2025 Google's AI models will be the best but also there there is a rule that has been mentioned here the rules. So the market will

resolve to yes if any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the chatbot arena data book. So and

there has to be some like objective measure of things like you can't objectively just subjectively say that no I think Google is bad not like that or even the benchmarks you

can't just use any other thing as per this specific bet which is this link this rule it only has to rank top in

this leaderboard not anything else so this there definitely are some objective rules behind it So, so when the table under leaderboard tab is checked as on

31st December 2025 12 p.m. So with as of this time period in this chatbot leaderboard whichever uh AI model is at

the top that model will be so these are the rules of the G. So as per this the public perception is that Google's

uh AI model is the best is going to be the best.

>> Now here how are the prices defined for the different how is it changing?

>> Yes. So that's what I'm going to try to say here try to give an answer but you'll come to so how so it comes to the second part how is it different from traditional

betting markets so in this case this is more like a stock market so in a stock market the prices are demand uh the prices of a

share is determined by the demand and supply or more like a demand of the stock. So if you have if if the a if the

stock. So if you have if if the a if the public has a perception that this company is going to perform well so the more people are going to are willing to buy the stock of that company that is

more people are willing to buy so the the demand is high so if the demand of a thing is high it's prices automatically go high go high because the ones who are holding on to it they will demand

they'll demand higher prices for it so it goes high so the same thing goes Okay. So

initially so uh there is an article that explains it much better about how initially it starts but suppose randomly suppose we are looking at some time

period. Let's look at now. So as right

period. Let's look at now. So as right of as of now so for Google it's 0.9

and 0.1 or yes and more.

So it will this thing will change over time based on the demand. Suppose if

people are researching more and more about it and they think that no there is no way some any other companies can go.

So this will so people try to buy more and more of ES because suppose some right now uh there are some people who are betting on XAI some are betting on anthropic and so on. So as the time

comes closer and closer they they are realizing that no there's no way these other companies can uh overcome Google.

So let's buy so that the only way is Google. So they will start to buy more

Google. So they will start to buy more and more of Google Google's uh yes shares. So the demand for yes shares

shares. So the demand for yes shares will increase. So hence it's price will

will increase. So hence it's price will start increasing from 0.9 to 0.91 0.95. So it will start to increase

0.95. So it will start to increase because the demand is more and on the same if the yes demand is more then obviously the nose demand will

go will be less but there will be some crazy person will okay maybe maybe what if something comes so it price is low

but the payout might be like some people will not take the risk some will not buy but overall its value will start to go

lower like 0.05 05 0.001 it will start going low. So once demand it all depends

going low. So once demand it all depends on demand and supply >> also then is there any limit on the

number of shares or things here.

So that I am not sure of like uh I yes I'm not sure of how not sure how it happens but >> so because I think I read that there is

no >> like you can withdraw the your bet any day. Yeah, it's

day. Yeah, it's >> so as as it gets closer to the result date, if you see that Google is going to win, >> yes, >> you can withdraw whatever you have what

wherever else you had put the money in and you can then bet for Google, then how is that going to work?

>> No, if if you withdraw like you you'll get back your money like whatever winnings you are getting. So that that is the thing. It says that it's not it says it's a peer-to-peer thing. It's a

it's a blockchain. So you're not betting against a in a traditional betting platform. You are betting against a

platform. You are betting against a house.

>> You this is going to last till a certain amount of time till the result is out.

>> Yes.

>> Right. Today I bet on let's say Xi.

>> Yes.

>> And the probability of Xi winning is going down. So does that mean that my

going down. So does that mean that my value is going down?

>> Yes, your value is going down definitely. Suppose uh

definitely. Suppose uh >> withdraw tomorrow >> you know tomorrow let's say of 2 weeks later I when I invested the chance of Xi

winning was 90%. So it was 9 cents.

>> Yes.

>> Then it came down to 50%. So it is 5 cents now. So if I withdraw all my

cents now. So if I withdraw all my shares I will get that amount of shares into 0.5 not what I initially invested right.

>> No you you Yes. So yes. So let's try to do it

Yes. So yes. So let's try to do it numerically here.

But suppose it's 0.09.

Suppose you have invested also. Uh one second let me show you this

also. Uh one second let me show you this thing.

So you can see in this screen that there's an amount tag here.

>> Yeah.

>> So suppose suppose if I want to buy Yes.

And if I say I want to buy $1.

So I'll get 1.11. So if if I win I'll get 1.11 >> if you buy only for $1.

>> For $1. So how is it determined? So let

me try to look at the maths behind it.

So this is 0.9 cent. So okay suppose if I put 0.9 here 0.9

I'll get $1. I'll tell you what happens.

So this thing is resolved at the end. So

this is the this is not the intermediate price. If you if you sell it in the

price. If you if you sell it in the middle, this is not what you'll get.

This is what you'll get if you hold it till the end. So I'll tell you what happens is that this 0 this 90 and uh uh 11 or let me okay this is some spread

that's why it might be 11. It's not

really adding up to 100. But what

happens is that at the end there will be a binary result. Either yes or no.

Either Google will win or it will lose.

There will be no draw.

So at the end this share the yes will turn into $1 and the no will become zero.

So if you suppose if I if I invested the exact amount of this if I invested exactly 0.9 then my 0.9 will become $1.

But if I suppose uh uh increase at $100 that means I bought more than one share. So one share is

worth 90. So let let's let me try to

worth 90. So let let's let me try to calculate this one here.

Okay. So right now one share equal to 0.9.

So amount that I'm going to invest is $100.

So the question is how many shares did I buy?

So this will be determined by 100 divided by 0.9.

It's like one apple is One apple is 5 rupees.

I spent I spent 50 rupees to buy apples. So if I ask how

many apples did I buy? 50 divided by 5 I bought 10 apples.

You understand this logic?

>> Yeah. So similarly if I uh if one share is 0.9 and if I spend $100 then how many shares did I buy? Whatever

it was 111.11 shares I bought and as I've said at the end this will be binary. So if I win if this prediction comes out to be true

that Google is the best model this will translate into $1.

So my $100 and since I own 111.11 shares so my $100 of investment will turn into one and 1.111 and if I lose it will turn into zero. I won't get

anything back zero.

>> Okay. And then if you had bought the shares when the one share was not 0.9 but 0.7 let's say.

>> Yeah.

>> But at the end >> the share price is 0.9. Will you get the value of 0.9 or for 0.7 only?

>> No. What did you say? At the end it is 0.9. It at the end it will only be one.

0.9. It at the end it will only be one.

>> Yes.

>> When you had place the place the bet.

>> Yes. It was 0.7.

>> One share was 0.7.

>> Okay.

Okay.

Now what did you say?

After a certain amount of time, the share now before the result is out is 0.9.

>> Okay.

>> So, person who invested $100 when the share was 0.7 and person who invested when it is 0.9.

>> Yes.

>> It's not the same.

>> Yes.

>> So, it will depend on when you invest.

>> Yes. Because if if it's 0.7 if I spend $100 depends how many shares did I buy.

So again it is 100 / 0.7. Let me

calculate with the calculator.

Uh 100 / 0.7 is this is 142.85

and by 0.9 was 1111.

So if I buy at 0.7 and if I hold it till maturity then I will get this amount of

and if I buy it at a higher probability I only get this amount. This is what's going to happen. So when you buy when

you place a bet on something that has lower probability of winning your payment or your in uh result will >> profit will be higher.

>> Yes.

But also you're taking more risk like uh since it is lower probability of happening and it is bound to like fluctuate. It's

like it's like it's 0.9 that you're seeing it today. Maybe one week from now it will fluctuate. it won't be 0.9 like depending on how the events are

happening and this is what is the collective wisdom because uh again we I wanted to talk about this thing the traditional batting platforms the odds

are not determined by again there are no such kind of odds for which model for like sports there are so even there suppose two teams are playing like Real

Madrid and Barcelona so this is generally winning Barcelona winning or there's a draw this there

will be scores like 3.15 two like 2.5 so suppose if you bet on real winning you will win whatever suppose you spend $100 you will get $315

and if you if it's a to you'll get you can only bet on one thing you can't bet on all three of those one any of those things so why is it 3.5 why is it not 6.15

you don't know like it is they will determine the numbers and they will determine in such a way that no matter whatever is the result they themselves will always have enough

money. So this

money. So this numbers may not reflect the real world outcome of the result. They will only they will choose the numbers so that they make money. So it's it's more of an

entertainment thing not the not a predictor of the real world events. But

again there are also bets for like football matches in in poly market as well. But there no one is setting the

well. But there no one is setting the probability rules by themsel. It is the people based on their knowledge of the sport or whichever subject matter the

question is in they are placing their bets based based on that one. So the

probability is generated by the collective wisdom of the crowd or the people.

So that's one of the things and again it's keeps fluctuating and also you asked >> okay what are you saying? No, you can

continue asking later.

>> Yes. And you ask something like this.

Like suppose I don't know if you ask exactly like this or not. Like suppose I buy it at 0.7 and now the value is 0.9. If I want

to sell it now, what will happen?

Yes. What will happen? Uh what is going to be my payout right now?

I think it will be the difference even I'm not sure suppose okay it is 142 >> so I think it will be it will be 0.9 it

will be multiplied by 0 I mean divided by 0.9 at that point >> because if you win >> yes >> uh

>> no no this is not this is not I'm I'm not going to I I'm I'm selling the share before the resolution.

So if I keep it till if I hold this share till the end, I'll get this one.

But if I suppose, okay, I don't want I'm not sure anymore. Suppose it's 0.8, but I'm still not sure. So I want to uh reduce it actually.

Okay, I'll have to I'll calculate this on my own maybe because it'll take time to think.

I think it will be something like 100 by 0.7 into 0.9 that is

okay if I be 142.85 85 2 0.9 the result I'm getting is 128.57 maybe

>> because yes I'm not getting $1.

>> Yeah, you're not getting $1. If you win it becomes $1.

>> Yeah, it's 0.9 I get 0.

>> Yes.

Yeah, I think we'll get 128. Yeah.

Oh, yes. I think it makes sense now.

Okay.

Yes.

Exactly. Yeah. Because uh suppose I think I'm cutting my I'm taking my chances. For example, if suppose I I can

chances. For example, if suppose I I can take the risk of holding it till the end and win, then I'll have a bigger chance of getting 142.85.

But suppose if it doesn't go if it if I lose then it's it's zero then I'll get nothing. But the in between this and

nothing. But the in between this and this I can take a little bit less of profit with $128 but at least it is better than

zero. So yes it makes sense. I'm yeah

zero. So yes it makes sense. I'm yeah

reducing the risk. Okay. Yes,

I think this also covers the point at which screen am I right now? Am I in the writing screen or the polymer market?

>> Not only >> Yeah, notepad. Yeah.

Yes. So this also so basically this covers the working process part of things. how these things happen and the

things. how these things happen and the technology I already told that it's the blockchain blockchain works in blockchain it's peerto-peer so there's no traditional betting platform so main

platform I also uh talked about this odds like 0.90.7 in here it is it happens through supply and demand of the

audience the people are making the bets as it is more like the stock market even the prices of the stock market happens demand and Nobody sets the in the

beginning when the IPO happens the the prices are set but once the IPO goes on after the IPO when the buying and selling of shares happen it it all

depends upon the uh demand of the share the company if people think the company is going to do good the prices will increase nobody is setting the thing so

same goes on here but in traditional platform let me show if it's possible to show some traditional betting platforms. Maybe

this is so fast. Let's

see the odds here.

do this one.

I mean the mobile app is much better than web where but still you can see some odds here.

Okay. So these are the odds for example Bay versus St. Paul. So who's going to win full time? Uh since Bayern is

obviously the bigger team. So

uh it's 1.09. That means if you if you bet $100, you'll get $109.

But for St. Pi, it's 23. Uh because the odds it's it's a very uh weak team compared to Bayern Munich. So it chances

of winning are very low.

So if but if you bet there, there's a very high chance of getting money. So if

you bet $100, you'll get $2,300.

But it but since the result is very likely so the chances are that if you bet $100 you're going to lose it. So

that's the thing. So they their ideas the whoever is the bookmaker their idea is to tempt you like okay what if what if St. Paul beats Bayern Munich

if St. Paul beats Bayern Munich so you you you'll have then I'll win 23 times my original investment. So you'll

have this temptation to go but Bay Mun I only get $9 1.09. This is nothing.

So what's the point of investing there?

So very few people will invest there.

But this is >> the meaning of that red arrow going down for buyer like are people considering that they will lose?

>> No, I think the value is going down.

Maybe it's 1.09 now. Maybe after like some time it will again go 1.05. I think

it was lower >> the at the Asian handicap 1.8 3 and 2.03.

>> Yeah, those are different thing like there are different kinds of B is this one means I think so if B scores more than 2.5 goals I mean it

it scores more than two goals or not. So

there are different kinds of batch it's not just winning or losing how many how many goals will B score. So those kind of things.

So there are different kinds of betting systems are there. So they're like for for first half who's going to who's going to lead in the first half? Who's

going to like there are many different things but this is the simplest one that I think to understand that overall who's going to win the match.

I think it just changed. Did you see 26 to 23 it happened and this was 1.09 it became 1.07. So

this are also changing fluctuating but these are not based on supply and demand. These are the this is being a 1x

demand. These are the this is being a 1x bet the this platform is doing this.

This is not the people the collective consciousness is coming again and definitely they'll try to

tempt you to bet here because uh you'll be now 23 out of it is 26 times but more likely the more you're going to lose this thing because it's very

unlikely that St. is going to bit by.

You know what? Let me let see if if the the same or same thing is there on poly market or as well.

Yes.

Even here is the same thing.

This 9010 it's most people more likely to win this.

Yeah.

So if you bet on no and St. Paul wins

you're going to get 898.

>> Yes. So here Yeah.

What am I betting for here? I'm betting

for Yeah, I'm saying that B mini will not win here. So that means St. Paul will win

here. So that means St. Paul will win and I'll get $819.

So this brings me we have uh about 8 minutes left. So this brings me

minutes left. So this brings me to the final part the practical uses.

So what uh I have told told about that there are two practical uses. One is

from in an investment perspective. The

second is a benefit to society. So what

do I mean by this thing?

So from an investment perspective it is the what I want to say is that now people can bet in a wide range of things

because uh earlier because there are people who who have expertise in a lot of things but they can't make money off them and so

traditionally what you can do is if if you only have expertise in stock market you can inve stock market and if you're experienced in sports you can bet there and even then since the the the prices

are determined by the house you don't know how truly it reflects those things so the ability to monetize your knowledge was very limited but with this

there there are so many different areas for example this is the Chile presidential election who is going to win let's see so maybe someone who is very knowledgeable in politics they

might use these things again there are the rules like uh those rules are uh earlier so right now so I don't know anything

about the politics of Chile but someone might know this and I think it's very close it's 6th November

I think it's already been held okay result will be known by 2026 anyways Black people with knowledge of different

areas can vote on this. So if you look at culture number of views and miss be next video there are like most stream Spotify edition 2025 there are like all kinds of

things what will happen before GTA 6 this kind there are so many kinds of things that people can bet on like who knows people might have expertise in those kind of things game of the year 2025 like there are people who are interested in games they know all of

those things but they can't monetize those skills. Now with this they have

those skills. Now with this they have the ability to monetize those skills like make money of their knowledge. So

that this is one thing. The first thing uh as an investment point of view this is one benefit. The second is >> also one point in this one.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh who is starting this like anyone can start this kind of wedding.

>> Yeah. Who start these questions? Who

post these questions you're asking?

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Even I'm not sure about this. So

let me just briefly ask perplexity if I can.

Okay. Users cannot

they're from controls which marks listed.

So you can suggest okay.

Okay. So there are suggestions but uh there I think there are employees there who evaluates those things and then comes up like it's not like a social like a social media X platform

you can you can't just post a question and make the predictions so there's a evaluation criteria behind this thing

so that's wrong thing >> there some aspect of it is still centralized Yeah, I think yes, I mean the decision making about what is there or not there

is centralized in terms of Yes.

But I think this also comes into this the since it's peer-to-peer there has to be so I have to understand more about the technical parts of it because what

if nobody is willing to back those kind of questions like you suppose for my own benefit I'll make some silly questions and post it like then how will there be

equal matching of those things I think uh for that I'll have to look more into the details of how the technical mechanism works as well so that is also needed

Okay, 3 minutes left. Okay, so that was the first one.

The second one was the uh the benefit to society.

So the uh the benefit is that since is the uh is the collective wisdom that's the term that's being used to

define define this since the b since the bets are not made by the any central person. So even though the questions are

person. So even though the questions are being selected the overall probability of occurrence is not made by anyone.

It's about it's it's collectively it happens by the supply and demand of the yes and no more shares.

So uh there are two means uh I think it'll take me 10 more minutes to explain this one. So should we start anyone because

one. So should we start anyone because otherwise I'll try to hurry this and I won't be able to explain it properly.

>> Okay.

>> Okay. I'll stop this and then you'll start.

So I'll talk about the societal benefit of this prediction markets.

So uh there was this post made by this person the bear gave he wrote uh this post on prediction

markets.

So it's a great post but there was a part where he mentions the benefit of prediction markets.

So initially it says that yeah uh many have predicted prediction market is another form of gambling like it's a new way for this

degenerate generation to bet on everything while providing nothing of value but he thinks that it's not wrong there there is some value to it in fact

there is a very important value to this prediction markets are a form of betting but with a with a beneficial byproduct or reliable information. By providing

everyone with better information to make better decisions, prediction markets will serve as a disruptive force in this

media, finance etc. Okay. So it gives a few examples like uh

Okay. So it gives a few examples like uh there was a score of this movie and prediction markets

uh predicted the quality of that movie better than this rot rodent tomatoes website which is a movies review website also

but gives a much more important example somewhere Okay, this one uh prediction markets can be applied to matters of more substance

that is matters of more importance.

Prediction markets can help execute determine which legis legislations will become law and so on.

And this was the important thing that I found interesting. Prediction markets

found interesting. Prediction markets are most useful for people with the least reliable information such as civilians in warning areas.

Poly market offers several markets on whether and when for example this is one example like when Russia will capture certain portions of Ukraine during the

ongoing war when viewed strictly as betting this markets can appear like yes this is this is a critic like there are people dying and you are making money off their predictions so it's like a

very sick sport what is this game the hunger games if you have seen that people they're killing each other and and making it at a making it as an

entertainment. So it seems more like a

entertainment. So it seems more like a Hunger Game. This is one criticism. But

Hunger Game. This is one criticism. But

on the other hand, it has the potential to correctly uh predict the outcome of such kind of

events because because of motivations.

So which I will explain it but first I'll talk about what he says. Prediction

markets are beneficial because they are better than the alternative relying on mainstream media. Why?

Because this is partly because prediction markets only incentivize accuracy rather than views, clicks, selling subscriptions or catering to the crowds. This thing

resonated with me very much. I think

that that is what convinced me that this this argument is valid because I have experienced it personally when I watch football news. So it's not

a very important thing like war but still.

So I remember earlier like maybe like 7 8 or 10 years ago when I watched some football analysis on TV it was very technical like there were

boards and they were explaining the movements of players and so on and so those kind of things even now they are there even still there but it it is also

a bit boring because even though it's accurate it gives beneficial information but is boring like most people do not may not like those things and what is their

incentive the because they are a media platform at the end of the day and their incentive is that the more viewers they have the more revenue they will get. So

at the end of the day they want to make money but telling the truth does not guarantee

the maximum amount of revenue. It's

talking about the most outrageous things because again I'll give example of football like if you say something that

is quite like uh what's the word the rage bait like if it will rage bait you for example suppose hling Harland is playing very well then there will be a

title Earling Harland is not a great striker then people will listen how is it possible he's playing so well now you'll click on And even in the argument, you'll see it's pointless

argument like 10 minute pointless video.

They'll just just to rage bait you.

They'll start making all sorts of claims. They not they are not they are not trying to find a truth about whether he's a great striker or not.

The fact that they're just trying to raise bait you into more clicks but but they're not trying to get into the truth of the matter whether he's a good striker or a bad striker. they just keep

keep doing anything.

But suppose the same people you you ask them to place a bet about okay in the next match Harland is going to score or not or who is going to be the top scorer

of this season Holland or not Holland automatically you will see these people start betting on Harland. So what

happened all of a sudden you were telling Holland is a not good strike he's not a good striker. So why are you betting now? Because now the incentives

betting now? Because now the incentives have changed.

the the core incentive is still the same that you want to make money. Okay, that

if if you tap into the deepest darkest desire of human to make money, you're still tapping into those things. But now

the path has changed. Now it's not through rage bait and clickbaits and selling subscriptions. It's about

selling subscriptions. It's about getting to the truth of the matter and your correct prediction of the truth of the matter is going to earn you money.

So what does that mean? that you are you are actually going to analyze the situation objectively and try to predict what's going to happen.

So now it's not just about football, it's about politics because most of the new channels are all about politics and culture and social and the developments that are happening there. So now if you

change the incentive to more views and more selling of subscriptions into finding the truth of the matter and now it's not just limited to the traditional

media any human can bet on those things.

So if you post questions like this uh will Russia capture this station by October 31st, November 30, December 30

at the end of which month.

So a new channel might cover this story based on what's what's going to get them the most clicks. But humans who want to

make money of the of correct prediction of this event will not try to sens sensationalize this news. They'll try to research look at

news. They'll try to research look at the developments happening and try to correctly predict what's actually going to happen.

And as a result, if you use now the this poly market homepage, not as a betting platform, but as a news platform, you think of this is a news

site. Okay, what's going to happen here?

site. Okay, what's going to happen here?

Let me see. Okay, honor pred presidential election. Instead of

presidential election. Instead of looking at a news site, let me just look at a predictions here. So, it says that okay, there's a 61% chance that this person is going to win. And I think

instead of instead of referring to a news channel, let me just I think this is going to be a much more pred accurate source of information for me. So you can treat this as a news site instead of

looking at traditional media because this the people here have the right incentive to find the objective truth as compared to traditional media. So that's

my second point about benefit to society.

Yeah.

>> Uh so I mostly agree >> but I have just one point here or the question. So for

example the question of like I saw some markets here asking the question will Russia and Ukraine sign a peace agreement or whatever.

>> Yeah.

>> Similar to that.

>> Yeah. somewhere like ceasefire in 2025.

The first one >> okay >> yes >> and people will have the incentive to bet correctly that is true and they will

research whatever but again the source of this information you can assume that maybe there are few people who have some insider and knowledge and they are also betting but most people will be common people who

will be betting based on what their understanding of the current situation is.

>> Yes. But for things like this lot of things happen in the happen behind the scenes that we do not know.

So we are still relying on information that is not available to us to uh predict what is going to happen. So

this I mean this displays what the overall maybe group of people think might happen >> or what the common consensus is >> but we still cannot guarantee that

behind the scenes something else completely else is going on.

>> Yes I agree because uh there is a information mismatch so this might not be an accurate reflection of the things.

Uh yes I so that is a good point against this.

Yes >> and also it's aa case by case like this is a very sensitive war going on especially between two nations that is

stopping information from coming out.

>> Yes. So you will not have access to information but other things like that game of the year one that is a very the information is open to that you can just play the games and identify what you

like what the overall people are thinking that is that that information is accessible.

>> Yes certain events you will not have the actual truth and many times it may be your bias that is

>> that is in display here.

Yeah, that is that is true like your point is uh correct because because certain events might not have that amount of information so those

predictions may be inaccurate but uh even for those kind of events uh this article also mentions certain

things that might negate that to a certain extent I think.

Okay. So one of the things he says that the financial incent in incentives for correct predictions also mean this

markets often surface information that the mainstream media misses and unlock talent previously ignored. This is one of the things that I previously

mentioned that people are expertise but you can see like what kind of tricks people will play to gain more information. For example, this for

information. For example, this for example, one legendary trader with millions in lifetime profits under the pseudonym dom.

So this person he famously tracked the private jets during the 2008 elections and deduced that Sarah Pel was the vice presidential presidential nominee by

finding an overnight flight from Alaska to Ohio in the hours before John McCain running made announcement. a level of diligence well beyond traditional media.

So did you understand what this person did here?

Actually >> you >> okay yeah go.

>> No no I can >> no I was about to say that there was a movie based on this uh not not this uh scenario but about uh John McCain and

Sarah Perry about this thing about this 2008 presidential nominee. I saw that movie. So I I can I understand this this

movie. So I I can I understand this this references but this this trading was not mentioned there. This is a new thing. So

mentioned there. This is a new thing. So

what you're about to see?

>> Yeah. Nothing else.

>> Okay. So uh

so he it says that again I don't know what okay then this statement is important like it

does not 100% fix what you what argument you made about uh incomplete information it does not 100% fix that but to an

extent it uh tries to work on that because it says that this market often surfaces information that mainstream media misses because they do not have

the incentive like why should I go so much like if I want to make profit the more sense my point is to just sensationalize or try to hype things up those kind of

that is going to make me more views and hence more money getting to the bottom of the matter and finding the truth is not my primary goal for a for a media

company but there are some crazy people who I think this is in a way data analytics like who like in a normal person it

won't even occur to their mind that let me look at the patterns of the flights this way this this he track private jets it's not even public jets private jets

and I don't know how he access those data but this is the thing I'm saying there are hackers like those kind of people who can who has access to things like they are not like official things but they are good with hacking and those

kind of links they can access information. So maybe they might track

information. So maybe they might track the supply of weapons being sold and the transportation, logistics, those kind of

things. Who knows this crazy means like

things. Who knows this crazy means like there are nerds in all sorts of niches.

They might be tracking those kind of things. Okay. What's the supply? They

things. Okay. What's the supply? They

they they'll track the supply of ship of of weapons to and between US and Ukraine and these supply chains and make

all sorts of connections and try to come up with an idea that okay probably this is what is going on in Russia and Ukraine right now.

So >> yeah. So if we can

>> yeah. So if we can assume that people are that are betting on this kind of platforms are of a diverse background.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> And then trying to skew the bet in any particular direction. Then in terms of

particular direction. Then in terms of in the point of view of news, you can look at this kind of bets and it could be a starting point for research.

For example, you saw that most people are betting against any peace agreement.

Then you can take that direction and try to figure out why most people are thinking that it is not going to happen.

>> Yes.

>> And that is also like I said it is assuming that this is not a skewed population of user because >> if people with a certain agenda flock to

this marketplace and they just to for their advantage everyone just bets on yes as a like a group effort then the whole

point is defeated >> but since the background is some blockchain and stuff so I don't know how it is managed but in traditional betting system that

could be the case right where you it's sort of like match fixing >> yes >> where you already decided the winner and you're trying to

manipulate people into either betting on the other side or this side. This has to be truly decentralized.

>> Yes.

Yeah, that is that is true.

So, but uh I mean I saw a video which made a similar kind of reference. I did not understand what he's trying to say but

uh for example suppose someone is for example Russia versus this ceasefire in 2025 so which means I think so the by end of December 31st 2025 will get a

ceasefire and if someone is uh what's the status right now like there's a 9% chance of ceasefire

and if people are deliberately trying to do do this Okay. And

and see suppose if you're trying to do this thing that what will be my benefit like as a team because the actual event is I can only manipulate the market. I can't

manipulate the real world event because uh this Russia and Ukraine ceasefire is not within my control. So

if I'm trying to falsely say that it's not going to happen but if it in fact is it it is going to happen then I'm going to lose my money

but actual kind of there are situations where you'll have control some people will have control over the realtime events

>> yeah I'll give you example from a TV show have you seen [ __ ] blinders I think one episode I have seen >> then from the first episode itself.

>> Okay.

>> So you you remember how the series starts by him going like on a horse >> some powder trick powder trick.

>> Uh maybe I Okay, go on.

>> Okay, I'll I'll tell you. So he takes a horse to some some area some person and does a powder trick on the horse. So

what the powder trick is supposed to signify that it has been enhanced. So

it's some kind of what is the word superstition that if a horse has been done that power trick then it is going to win the race.

So he does that in public so everyone sees it happening and then when but actually there's nothing no trick there it's just a superstition that people

believe. So when people saw that this

believe. So when people saw that this horse has been spiked that way then people will bet on that horse and if it actually wins then they are winning but

and like first in the first race the horse wins so they get some money and once the horse win people are confident that he win again then they will bet on that horse again but at the third time

when more and more people are starting to bet on the horse they will make the horse lose. So that kind of manipulation

horse lose. So that kind of manipulation real real world manipulation could be there. There is a I'm not sure if I was

there. There is a I'm not sure if I was able to able to explain the example very well.

>> Yes, I think uh yes in here so if the event itself so even if the so unlike this traditional betting thing you can't

manipulate the odds but what you can manipulate is the outcome of the event itself. So if this kind of events are

itself. So if this kind of events are uh if someone some people has control over those events so it can be manipulated. So I think this is one area

manipulated. So I think this is one area of point that could be researched further to get the answers like whether it can be manipulated or is there any

checks and balances here.

Uh yes, >> for example, I really believe any market is related to Elon Musk could be manipulated by him.

>> Yes. Yes. Like this kind of >> have influence on what?

So for example this things like this could be manipulated like this is like this question is what is this number of tweets between 21st November and 20th

November. What is the

November. What is the how is it this market will dissolve the number of times mass post on

the main fits 10. Okay.

10. Okay.

What is the kind of Okay, I think since the time is already over 29th, this is 28.

So it resolved.

Yes.

Okay. So this this this bet was on how many tweets he will make within this week. There are different ranges that

week. There are different ranges that have 460 to this this this and the finally he posted 20 to 29.

Now if Elon Mus himself decides to bet on this one. So it is in his complete power to okay he'll say okay I'll make only 200 tweets this week and then he'll

bet his money there. So in those kind of scenarios it can be manipulated.

So yes but uh yes that is true these are perfectly in control but I think for those kind

but those kind of topics are also not news worthy how many tweets he's going to make is not a very important news for the humanity in general but uh things

like war politics those are important things and also it is very difficult for a single person to manipulate

>> tech tab.

What kind of bets are there?

>> This is the tech tab. Largest company

of the year AI model. Well, Gemini

released Gemini 3.0 flesh.

Okay.

second lose company of divorce in 2025. What kind of pet is that?

>> That is what I'm thinking. But the most most of the like they're very childish or not very

useful kind of bets.

most of them at least from what it seems >> either their AI right now what is trending is at least which is the which is the best AI

mostly AI related >> yes those are mostly AI related but I think the one that I find useful are

those kind of things like uh the there is an IPO question like create an IPO guy this kind of questions are Actually from a investor's point of

view, financial investors point, this is important.

Tik Tok filter through quite a lot of them to find some interesting moves.

>> Yeah.

Like for example again this Micro Strategy announced back uh bankruptcy those kind of thing. SP SpaceX Starship

datab IPO. So those are kind of

datab IPO. So those are kind of uh quite important but also there are some silly questions like this divorce thing and some not very important like top

five search Google. Okay, this is fun but not very important. Yes.

What about culture? Highest grossing

movie. Again this these kind of things are not very important like it doesn't matter what fees are high but still like

it's fun to battle those kind of things.

>> Yes.

>> I think some of the questions are very meme based >> it only cryptocurrency. I tried this thing.

Uh you can't >> you can deposit it.

>> It does it didn't work. I didn't I thought it would be much seems simpler but it's not. I have to create a crypto account and so on and

>> but there's an option to deposit card.

>> So basically you need to have you need to own cryptocurrencies. Some of the ones that are accepted here they can't

directly uh invest through money through normal currencies like rupes or dollars and talking of which

cryptocurrencies in India are quite it's not that easy and also the apps that they use I I researched a bit India has

platforms like coin DCX and so on but it does not uh accept those kind of things.

It accepts platforms like Binance which is good but again in India it's not easy to create an account as an Indian

citizen to on Binance. So so the technical formalities are quite it's there but I will try to find a way into

it. So like investing in US was was also

it. So like investing in US was was also not easy but eventually I found a way to do it. So finally I can now.

do it. So finally I can now.

So we need to have create a different bank account and so on for the US markets but I'll figure something out for this one

as well over time.

But yeah, these are the two main benefits here as an investment tool and as a source of news.

So, anything else you have to say here?

>> No.

>> Okay. I realized my earphones charges are there. You know, that's why I wasn't able to hear you.

Okay. So, we can end this one.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay.