Emini End of Day Review - Monday, December 1, 2025 - Brad Wolff

All right. So, last week we've been in a fairly tight bull channel on the weekly chart and then we formed a bull bar closing on its high last week. That's a strong enough bar

last week. That's a strong enough bar makes me think we'll probably get a second leg up and attest to 7,000.

And then daily chart more or less the same.

So, here is 7,000.

We've been obviously in a bull trend for many, many months. Most pretty much the entire ever

months. Most pretty much the entire ever since April. We had a bull trend. We've

since April. We had a bull trend. We've

been going sideways in this trading range. We have 7,000 just above. I think

range. We have 7,000 just above. I think

it's strong enough rally. Probably

buyers below at least a second leg up in a test of 7,000.

Let me just check something really quick.

All right. Coming into today, yesterday Well, Friday, so we Thursday we formed a trading range, open, rallied, went

sideways, and then on Friday we had a spike in channel. Today we gapped up, excuse me, we gapped down say big enough gap that, you know, it's strong enough

that it'll probably influence the market a little bit. Bar one rejecting a gap.

It's a bull bar. that increases the probability that there's probably going to be buyers below bar one. And

therefore, if we test down of the bar one low, I suspect there's probably going to be buyers not far below it.

And then two, we have a bare reversal bar closing on its low. Good for the bears. Probably

bears. Probably good for the bears, but bad context.

Bull bar closing on its high with bar one increases the risk that there's buyers below two. And then three, you can see testing down to the bottom third of bar one, finding buyers, probably

more traders buying in this general location than selling. And because of that it

than selling. And because of that it increases the probability that the market is probably going to bounce.

Four bull breakout above the high of three or above the high of three but failed to close above the excuse me bull breakout on four above the high of two but we failed to close above the two

high. It's a strong enough bar that

high. It's a strong enough bar that we're probably going to get a second leg up. So that's good for the bulls. And

up. So that's good for the bulls. And

then five consecutive bull bars. four

and five strong enough breakout that I suspect we're going to get at least a second leg up and therefore probably by the close by the pullback and then six

we have a bare reversal bar it's a bull bar but it closed below the midpoint of the bar and so technically the barish direction is bearish you can call it a

low two with bar two and six six we have a micro channel from the low of three to the high of bar six because of that you'll have some traders looking at bar six anticipating ing.

You have some traders expecting buyers below the six lows scaling in lower.

However, if you look at the overall range of the day, it's a trading range and buying right here is a little bit dangerous because there might be buyers all the way back down here. You'll have

low one short below two. We could easily rally all the way up here, find sellers, and test back down to the low two.

That makes it a little bit difficult for that makes it difficult for the bulls buying right here. Riskreward is not ideal. Bear reversal bar seven good for

ideal. Bear reversal bar seven good for the bears but three bar micro channel probably buyers below. And then eight we have a weak high one buy. Not a great buy for the bulls above eight. So we may

get a small second leg down. And then

nine another bear bar. 10. Another bear

bar. This is one of those sneaky reversals where you start getting trending lower highs and lows. You're

basically getting four consecutive bear bars. Let me check this bar right here.

bars. Let me check this bar right here.

Okay, this bar closed at the open, but it's basically four consecutive bear bars. And because of that, especially

bars. And because of that, especially with the gap down, that increases the risk that traders might get trapped and we get a downside breakout. And that's

what happened on bar 11. 11 bare bar closing on its low, breaking up below 10. Good for the bears. We may go a

10. Good for the bears. We may go a little bit lower. And then 12 consecutive barrel bars. 11 and 12. Good

for the bears. Probably the first reversal up will be minor. And then 13.

Now we have three consecutive barrel bars. 11, 12, 13. Strong enough that

bars. 11, 12, 13. Strong enough that we'll probably get a second leg down and we'll probably fall below the one low or the three low. And then you can see what happened with bar 14. 14 outside up.

Good for the bulls. Probably going to go at least a little bit higher. And then

15, not a good low one short. So a

breakout, pullback, not a good sell below. Probably buyers below. And then

below. Probably buyers below. And then

16, we have a bull bar. Three

consecutive bull bars. I suspect the first reversal down. Probably it'll be minor. So probably more traders buying

minor. So probably more traders buying in this area rather than selling.

And then 17. Strong enough bull breakout. Strong enough bar. I suspect

breakout. Strong enough bar. I suspect

we'll probably get a second leg up, but possibly two legs. Rally, pullback,

second leg. There might be more sellers up here than buyers. And then 18. Not a

great follow-through bar. Increase the

risk. We get a pullback.

And then 19. Now we have consecutive bear bull dogeis. 18 and 19. Probably

because of that that increases the risk that the bulls buying this high in the range will begin to reduce their position anticipating that there might be more traders selling up here rather

than buying. Bulls they'll buy if the

than buying. Bulls they'll buy if the momentum is strong. But if the momentum starts to weaken a lot of those traders will begin to reduce their position, betting that a trading range is more

likely than a bull trend. And then we have a reversal bar on 20. Good for the bears. Probably going to get a small

bears. Probably going to get a small second leg down, but 20 is allowing. You

can see what 20 is doing. Twisting. 20

is testing down to a location.

20 is testing down to a location where traders got trapped. You have traders who sold the high of n of 16 scaling in higher. And look what 20 is doing. It's

higher. And look what 20 is doing. It's

allowing those traders out of the trade.

And that was a bad sell location for the bears. And because of that, you had

bears. And because of that, you had traders buying in this area and they'll probably buy in this same location again.

21 possible micro bottom with 20 and 21 increases the probability that we may end up getting a bounce. And then 22 we

have a dogee bar. Not a great sell.

Probably going to get a bounce. And then

23 we have a bull bar, but the bulls need to undo 20 and 21. And because of that, there might be more traders.

Because of that, there might be more traders selling right here. And we may have to go sideways before the bulls get a second leg. Then 24, a bull bar. Now we

second leg. Then 24, a bull bar. Now we

have three consecutive bull bars. Good

for the bulls. And then now we have 25.

We have four consecutive bull bars.

Looks like the bears who sold the high of 22 have betting on a second leg down with 20 and 21 bears selling here. They got

trapped on the rally and there might be more traders buying on a pullback.

26 we have a dogee.

That is good for the bulls.

It's not a great 26 dogee but not a bare reversal bar. Good for the bulls.

reversal bar. Good for the bulls.

Probably buyers blow in a second leg up.

And then 27. We have a outside up bar.

Good for the bulls. Strong enough

breakout bar. We'll probably go a little bit higher, but we have three pushes up.

One, two, three. And so far, this looks more like a leg in a trading range than the start of a strong bull trend.

That makes me think there might be more traders.

It makes me think there might be more traders selling in this location rather than buying. 28 consecutive bull bars.

than buying. 28 consecutive bull bars.

27 28. Good for the bulls. We're

probably going to pull back fairly soon.

And then 29, we have a reversal bar.

But after that many bars up, 22 low to the 28 high, I suspect the first reversal down is probably going to find buyers.

And then you can see bar 30. Let me zoom in a little bit here.

There we go. 30. Not a great high one buy, but I suspect buyers blow in at least a bounce. One of my concerns so far is that there's sellers somewhere

above. And because of that, it's really

above. And because of that, it's really not a great because of that, it's really not ideal for the bulls. You know, bulls, they can

buy, but the reality is you, we saw what happened later today. If you buy in this general location, you really do run the risk of getting of the upside being

fairly limited.

reversal up 31 follow through after the high one increases the odds we go a little bit higher but I suspect there's going to be sellers somewhere above the 28 high so we may end up going sideways

to up we may have to form a wedge one two and then maybe three but if we do I suspect there's going to be sellers not far above and that the upside will probably

probably be limited Just see something for two seconds here.

Okay. And then we have a reversal down on 38. 38 reversal bar. Not a great

on 38. 38 reversal bar. Not a great second entry. Increases the probability

second entry. Increases the probability that we're probably going to go have to go sideways for more bars and develop more selling pressure. What's the

chances we get down to the 22 low? I

think we might get down to the 22 low.

But one of my problems here is that I suspect the upside is probably going to be one of my problems right here is that I suspect the upside is probably going

to be limited.

And because of that, if you're let me say it differently, the chances of the market falling down here when the channel up is this tight is is low. And because of that, we'll

probably have to go sideways and stabilize for longer. So if you're selling right here, you really need to be willing to scale in higher reversal 33. Good for the bears, but a double

33. Good for the bears, but a double bottom of 30 and 33. That lowers the probability for the bears. And then 34, we broke to the downside, but now it's two legs down after the tight bull

channel. There might be more traders

channel. There might be more traders buying in this location. And you can see what happened. The market started to go

what happened. The market started to go sideways in a tight trading range. Then

we have a bull breakout. 39 39. Is this

resetting the count? Is this a strong enough reset [clears throat] reset?

Excuse me.

Is this a strong enough reset and the start of a new market cycle and a bull break out of a bull channel? Or when you look at this, are you thinking, "Yeah, it looks like this bull break out of the

bull channel is looks like this is probably just part of the channel." And

because of that, we may reverse down.

Right now, it looks like it's part of the bull channel. And you can see what happened. We have a reversal bar on 40.

happened. We have a reversal bar on 40.

That's a reminder that this is still part of a spike in channel. Three pushes

up. One, two, and three. Reversal down

41. Good for the bears. Closing the

gaps, increasing the probability that the market is going to go higher.

And then 42, three consecutive bear bars, but we may still have to develop more selling pressure before we go straight down. on a minimum because we have a

down. on a minimum because we have a wedge 1 2 3. We'll probably test the most recent higher low, the third leg up in the wedge, which is the low of 34.

Bull bar 43. Good for the bulls, but not great context. The signal bar is good

great context. The signal bar is good for the bulls, but the context is really disappointing. We have a three bar, we

disappointing. We have a three bar, we have a three bar micro channel, 40, 41, 42, so probably sellers above the 42

high. Then we have a dogee on 44

high. Then we have a dogee on 44 and looks like we'll get a small second leg down. Bullbar 45, but I suspect

leg down. Bullbar 45, but I suspect sellers above the 40 high scaling in scaling in higher. It's possible we need

another leg up. So one, it's possible that the rally to 28 is the first push.

This is the second. This is the third.

Then dogee 46.

Not a great sell, especially after three consecutive bull bars, 43, 44, 45. We

may need a small second leg up, but if we do, I suspect sellers above. And then

we started to kind of drift sideways to up. But what do you notice about the

up. But what do you notice about the rally? You know, it's fairly

rally? You know, it's fairly disappointing. And it's really,

disappointing. And it's really, you know, it's not breaking out to the downside and it's also not breaking out to the upside. you're getting a lot of overlap

upside. you're getting a lot of overlap and this increases the probability that the market is likely going to start going sideways.

So, it looks like a bear a bull leg and what will become a trading range. Then

we got another dogee and then a bear bar. And then finally, we had a surprise

bar. And then finally, we had a surprise strong enough bar 55. We'll probably get at least a second leg down.

And then follow through 56 consecutive bear bars probably sellers above and a second leg down. And then we tested the low of 32. 32 probably going to be

support. But after this many bars down,

support. But after this many bars down, I suspect whatever reversal up we get is probably going to be minor. What about

selling the close of 58? I think it's tough because the odds are you're probably going to get a bounce before you get some kind of continuation to the downside and then

instead we broke to the downside on bar 59. Good for the bears. Probably going

59. Good for the bears. Probably going

to go at least it's good for the bears increasing the odds that we're going to go at least a little bit lower.

But still, you know, you've had mostly a trading range day. I suspect we're going to be sideways fairly soon. 60, another

bare bar, good for the bears, still sell the close. And then 61, we broke to the

the close. And then 61, we broke to the downside. I mentioned this bar was

downside. I mentioned this bar was becoming more climactic than the others, and that increased the probability that the market would probably find buyers

relatively soon.

And that's exactly what happened.

Reversal up 162. Good for the bulls.

probably going to go at least a little bit higher. I expect we'll get up to the

bit higher. I expect we'll get up to the 34 low over the next couple of bars and instead we reverse down pretty sharply.

That's good for the bears, but and one of the problems for the bears is that the bears are being forced to buy in what's likely the bottom third of the range and that lowers to me that lowers the probability for the bears. I'm not

going to take a stop order sell especially a fairly big one closing on its low in the bottom third of the range when I think there's probably more traders buying below dogee 64 probably a second leg down

after 63 and the bears got it but then we reversed up on 65 that's an implied second entry after 61 not a great buy above 64 but a warning that we're probably going to start to go sideways

soon and then we got a second entry with 67 at some point I think we're probably going to try and break to the upside side and test up to the 62 low and the

34 low. And you can see the market

34 low. And you can see the market rallied up to 69. We tested the close of 62, but we could not break above it and we couldn't get to the 34 low.

And then we reversed down on 70. 70

strong enough reversal down, but I think probably buyers below the 69 low scaling in lower. And you can see what happened.

in lower. And you can see what happened.

We formed a bull bar on 72. got a second leg down after 70 with 73. Then we broke to the upside on 74. 74 was an important bar. It was a bull break out of the

bar. It was a bull break out of the triangle. Whenever you have a triangle,

triangle. Whenever you have a triangle, 50/50 chance the breakout is going to be successful. 50/50 chance that breakout

successful. 50/50 chance that breakout is going to fail. And so when you really when you see that bar, you know, it's really not all that impressive. It's a

good bar, but it's not as strong as it could be. You know, realistically, bulls

could be. You know, realistically, bulls probably need, you know, maybe probably one more bar and that increases the probability that increases the risk that it could

fail and go the opposite way. And then

75, we sold off and rallied. So,

while it's not a bear bar and that's good for the bulls and one of the problems is it's a double top. If we

reverse down above 76, the market rallied 74, sold off 75, rallied 76. See

the reverses down again. It's a micro double top. And then 76 or excuse me 74

double top. And then 76 or excuse me 74 we rallied 75 we sold off and then 75 we rallied again. If we sell off again on

rallied again. If we sell off again on 76 that'd be a microle top. And that's

what happened. 76 and called a wedge 1 2 3 or 1 2 3. Strong enough bar. We may go a little bit lower. And then we got follow through selling 77 consecutive bear bars. Looks like we're going to go

bear bars. Looks like we're going to go at least a little bit lower. And during

this bar, the market sold off, testing the moving average, the 60-minute moving average, and then it started to stall and then reversed back up late in the bar.

78. That's a strong enough bull reversal bar that the odds are we're probably going to go sideways in this range. And

we may test back up here and get back up to the 34 low later today.

And you can see that was the close. For

stop orders, you can buy above one, but low probability. If you buy above one, do

probability. If you buy above one, do you sell below two? I would not. I

think, you know, you probably just keep your stop below one, but you know, 20% chance it's going to be the low of the day. And then the next stop order for

day. And then the next stop order for the bulls, you know, maybe above five, but that's pretty dangerous. And if you do, if you get out, you either get out below seven or you get out after three

or four consecutive bear bars and then bear breakout on 11. Some traders will sell it. If they do, they got to get out

sell it. If they do, they got to get out above 14. Bulls, they can buy above 14.

above 14. Bulls, they can buy above 14.

And where do they get out? I don't think they have if they didn't get out during the breakout 20. I don't think they have to get out down here. This is low in the range. And there might be more traders

range. And there might be more traders buying down here rather than selling. But if they did get out, they probably buy again, you know, maybe after three or four consecutive

bull bars or above 25. And then bears, bulls, they can get up below 32. Some

bears will sell and I think in here's really tough. Bears if they're short

really tough. Bears if they're short they probably get out as the market goes sideways and then bulls you know you can buy but you're buying a wedge 1 2 3. So

really not great buying above a bull bar such as 39 and then 40 bare reversal bars exit. some bears go short,

bars exit. some bears go short, but if they do, you know, maybe they get out above 43, you will have bears selling and scaling in higher betting that the market will evolve into a

trading range. And that lowers the

trading range. And that lowers the probability for the bulls buying up here and that's what makes it difficult even though the channel is tight and you can buy and once you see 55, you definitely

have to exit your shorts. And then

bears, they can sell 55 and they probably get out above a bull bar, you know, maybe above. I think it's okay to get out above 62, but it never triggered and then they get out above any of these

bars over here.

And at this point, it's so late in the day, I think it's really hard to take a stop order. You know, maybe you buy

stop order. You know, maybe you buy above that bar, but probably not ideal.

And then, you know, bears, they can sell below 76, but, you know, forcing you to sell in the bottom third of the range, really not a great location. And that's

probably for stop orders for limit orders. I thought buyers in the bottom

orders. I thought buyers in the bottom third of one. I thought sellers, you know, maybe buy the moving average.

Sellers, you maybe the midpoint of bar seven. And then I thought buyers below

seven. And then I thought buyers below 12 scaling in lower.

And then probably buyers below 20, buyers below 21 for a bounce.

And then I thought sellers above 30 and then sellers above 32 during 39. And

I thought really sellers above all these bars scaling in higher betting on a second leg up.

and then [clears throat] sellers above 61, but for the reasons I mentioned, I would not. I think it's okay to sell above the

not. I think it's okay to sell above the bear bar closing on as low as 60. That's

a stronger sell, limit order, sell above, then I thought buyers below, and then that's pretty much it for limit orders. You could argue buyers below any

orders. You could argue buyers below any of these bars, but I think really tough for traders to take. Buy the close, sell the close, you know, maybe

not really great buy the close here. If

you do, you probably get out as it goes sideways. Sell the close 12. Not great

sideways. Sell the close 12. Not great

by bottom third of a range. And then,

you know, even up here, if you buy and scale in, that's probably okay, but not great. buy the close and may buy the

great. buy the close and may buy the close 2526 for a bounce. I thought it was clearly sell the close on 5657 for at least a small second leg down and

then selling down here. I think it's tough because the odds favor sideways trading and you can see what happened.

We went sideways for the next several bars. Let me take a look at questions.

bars. Let me take a look at questions.

Okay, let me check one more place for questions.

Good question. What do you do when bar direction and body direction conflict or are conflicting?

Yeah. So

I think what you mean is you know what do I do? There's something called bar direction and then there's body direction. Bar direction is you you

direction. Bar direction is you you think bar direction as the direction you the way I think about it and I might be misunderstanding this

person. When I think of bar direction, I

person. When I think of bar direction, I think of the direction.

So I think of two things. I don't think about as body direction. I think more as the bar itself. Is it a bull bar? Is or

is a bear bar? And then the bar direction. And for me, I generally think

direction. And for me, I generally think of bars as closing below their midpoint.

If they close below the midpoint, they're they're [clears throat] bearish.

And if they close above the midpoint, they're bullish. So here, bar three, we

they're bullish. So here, bar three, we have a bear bar. However, it closed, you know arguably it closed just under its midpoint. So,

it's actually a bear bar as well. Let me

look at a different example.

Here's a here's a good example. So, 53

there is it closed under the midpoint of the bar, but 50 but 53 is a bull bar.

So, the bar direction, the bar itself is a bull bar. However, it's an I it because it closed below the midpoint, it's a bear bar. you can be think it can be thought of as a barrel bar and because of that I think about the

context and I look to the bar to the left 53 it's a bull it's a bearish direction because it's closing below the midpoint and 52 is a bear bar so I think

this is more of a bearish environment but it really comes down to context is it a good sell below Seven.

[clears throat] Sorry about that. Okay. Is it a good sell below seven here?

Second leg to the EMA, the two legs up to the moving average. Yeah, I think that's a credible sell. You know, the the breakout four and five are strong.

So maybe you wait for more sideways trading, but I think it's an okay trade.

And then is it okay to sell below 29 for the wedge top? So can you sell here for a wedge top? I think if you're selling 29, you know, it's a little bit lower probability of a trade, even though it might be a failed breakout of a double

top. So 29. We have a double top six

top. So 29. We have a double top six double top 18. We sold off. We broke

above it and we're pulling back. So you

can argue it's a failed breakout of a double top. I think the reality is this

double top. I think the reality is this location here is probably going to find I think the reality is that

because the buying pressure the low of 22 to the high of 29 that increases the probability that the market is probably going to go more sideways. So if you do

sell below 29 you probably need to be able to scale in. And if you sell below 29, I think it's better to use a wide stop, but then you probably get out somewhere

down here. Okay, so where do we go

down here. Okay, so where do we go tomorrow? I think I think tomorrow

tomorrow? I think I think tomorrow it's probably going to be mostly sideways.

We have a weak high one buy, tight bull channel, so we'll probably get a second leg up, but we're also in the upper third of the range, and that may require that the market goes sideways for more bars. We also may have to test back to

bars. We also may have to test back to the November 20th high over here, but we'll see. Okay, thanks everybody for

we'll see. Okay, thanks everybody for joining. And again, if you want to

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Room. Okay, thanks everybody for hanging out with us today and I hope everyone learned something and I will talk to everybody very soon. All right, thanks everyone.