How Casual Sex Affects The Rest of Your Life

What is the impact of body count on long-term relationship success?

>> Um, I mean, it's very intuitive. I'm

always surprised by how controversial this is because I say it quite a bit and I say it not even kind of bracing for impact, if

that makes sense. I'm like, this will this seems intuitive, right? But people

who love to have casual sex and sleep with lots of people and hop from relationship to relationship and as a result of all those behaviors end up with a higher number for their age than

you would otherwise expect. Those people

are less likely to succeed in long-term monogous pair bonds than people who do not like doing that and do not have that sort of track record. And that and when

I say succeed, I mean in terms of every outcome measure, I mean, you know, more likely to get divorced, less likely to be satisfied in their

relationships, uh more likely to cheat.

Uh there there was one analysis I believe it was by the IFS where if an individual and this is from this is all true for men and women by the way there I know that on the internet there's a

huge focus on women but all these effects there's no sex difference and sometimes the effect is even larger in men than women. So that aside right we're we're talking about everybody

here. Uh if you subdivided the data

here. Uh if you subdivided the data neatly and said people with a body count below five people with a body count above five what's their infidelity rate?

The infidelity rate of the above five five group was double that of the below five group.

>> No way.

>> Yeah. So this is not this is not a nothing burger, right? This this is a thing. Uh and the reason it's a thing is

thing. Uh and the reason it's a thing is very intuitive, right? It's like

what is an affair, for example, like an affair is a form of casual sex. And so

if someone has had lots of casual sex, they're telling you to some extent, oh, I'm more likely than someone who has not done this, I I probably enjoy this, right? because I keep doing it over and

right? because I keep doing it over and over. I mean, I'm sure there are some

over. I mean, I'm sure there are some cases where that's not true and and people change obviously, but it's a huge, you know, past behavior is a predictor of f future behavior. So,

you're basically saying, oh, I've got like when people are surprised by this, I'm surprised because it's like you've got two groups of people, let's say people who have slept with lots of people and people who haven't. And

you're trying to predict who's going to sleep with more people in the future going forward. Like why why would you

going forward. Like why why would you why would you predict anything other than >> the only the only explanation that I could come up with is that somebody has closed the loops.

>> Oh, they've gotten it out of their system. Yeah. The classic Imagine if I

system. Yeah. The classic Imagine if I said that with alcohol, >> right? I'm going to get it out of my

>> right? I'm going to get it out of my system. I'm going to so I can drink less

system. I'm going to so I can drink less in the future. I'm going to drink more during my undergrad. Right? Imagine if I said this with drug use. Imagine if I said it with positive things. Imagine if

I said I'm going to get the gym out of my system. Right? then that's that

my system. Right? then that's that doesn't happen that it's like oh I'm going to go to the gym every day I'm going to work on my muscles and then in the future I am not going to want to do it as much cuz I used to do it like you build healthy habits you build unhealthy

habits.

>> Do you think do you think that there's ever the potential for somebody to stray because they had unfulfilled variation early on in their sexual uh career.

That's I mean it's a really good point and I think that what we're talking about here is average population level trends which is the sort of thing this data is good for.

I think that there probably is some causal relationship but the data don't speak to that yet and you actually can't ethically design the sort of experiment that would tell us >> [ __ ] ethics boards dude they suck so hard. Um so

hard. Um so >> so many interesting questions that we could answer. I think I think it's an

could answer. I think I think it's an interesting one around um how people interpret socioexuality.

Bus had in the evolution of desire. I

swear one of the lines that's still in my readwise is the single biggest predictor of extrammarital sex is premarital sex.

>> Yeah.

>> Is that true?

>> Well, it's sex predicting sex, right?

>> But is that true? is the single biggest predictor of extrammarital sex.

Premarital sex >> single biggest predictor I well it's David Bus saying it so I'm very tempted to just >> slightly older book though right like has evolution of desire is what how old now

>> yeah that's true it's it's like 1999 I believe so I I mean in my data and looking at other people's data I would say relationship dissatisfaction >> but that is >> could that be due to

>> think about that think about relationship satisfaction as like the damn lifting up and like all the other causes being allowed to run rough shot >> relationship dissatisfaction is not one of the predictors that you could be able to

>> say in advance. Exactly. It's like

obviously when things get bad, they get bad, right? It's kind of it's predicting

bad, right? It's kind of it's predicting itself.

>> And maybe it's because they've got wandering eyes. Maybe it's because

wandering eyes. Maybe it's because they're not paying as much attention to you.

>> Exactly. And then it's it's also it's not a like it's it's kind of an all cause thing because as soon as you don't care about the relationship, any other motivator becomes much more pertinent.

Like maybe you were the sort of guy who never had a wandering eye and you know couldn't be swayed.

>> Dissatisfaction has now meant that the first thing to the surface is now what burst out and the most salient personality trait you have is your high socioexuality. You slept with 25 women

socioexuality. You slept with 25 women before you got this >> relationship. I think that the the best

>> relationship. I think that the the best predictor of extrammarital sex is premarital sex. Maybe that's true. I

premarital sex. Maybe that's true. I

mean, I do know that the if you look at people who do go the very religious route and they just have one person and and that sort of thing, they I mean, they do tend to

have or and they don't live together before marriage.

>> Yeah, >> they I mean they seem to do they seem to do pretty well. Um I do think though that this is correlational and so there are going to be individuals who don't

fit that pattern. And one thing that we cannot test, this is a huge caveat, is that we can't know like if you take that person who had a a high body count,

let's say, and cheated, we can't rewind the clock and say, "Oh, if you hadn't built that habit, >> you would have like maybe maybe it would have been maybe it would have been even wor like like like I can't recommend

from this like I can't I can't like tentatively I would say it's probably not a good idea if you want to marry for life, it's probably not a good idea to

sew your wild oats. It's probably not a good idea to try and get it out of your system with the caveat that it's hard to know from the data with great confidence

that um that there aren't individual cases where that actually is protected.

But also, I I really wanted to get into this the causal effect. Somebody is

somebody's just lost their virginity yesterday and they're going to get into a relationship which is going to be their lifelong relationship in 8 years time. They want to have sex with lots of

time. They want to have sex with lots of people. They want to. They really really

people. They want to. They really really want to.

>> And is me saying hold it back is that going to make them less likely to cheat.

Yeah. I I it's a good point. It's a good point. I think

point. I think >> Does it change? Does it change? Does you

sleeping around? Because one of the questions would be, well, you know what it's like. You've developed some sort of

it's like. You've developed some sort of habit, some sort of lifestyle. You've

maybe gotten rid of some of the stigma that's a part of it, inculcated some kind of [ __ ] sexual rhythm with new partners, whatever it might be.

>> Uh, you know what's out there. Yeah.

>> Right.

>> You actually know the mechanics. I mean,

people who have never had a one night stand, they actually don't know >> the one night stand. They don't know how that works.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. I That's such an interesting point. I think one night stanza, apart from in modern modern med media, often romanticized by people that have maybe only been in long-term

relationships, like the taxi home, the [ __ ] cleaning up of the clothes in the morning. It's not the beginning of a

the morning. It's not the beginning of a Love Actually movie. It's not. It's just

it's steeped in awkwardness and stories that you tell your friends in WhatsApp chats the next day. Yeah, I think there's some cases probably I mean I I think there's some cases probably where people have that experience don't like it and it actually solidifies their

commitment to monogamy. I think that the I think that when we're talking about I made I made kind of a glib analogy to I was feeling quite cheeky made an analogy to alcohol that kind of thing and I

think that to to walk that back to some degree I would say that it's probably true if we're talking about like very high cases um but there probably are

some cases within normal normal range where like if you came to me and said look Mac and I really really want to drink and party and and all that sort of stuff like Would my advice really be

going into undergrad, well, don't do it because you'll become an alcoholic later. Or would it be like, well, have

later. Or would it be like, well, have have a little bit of fun, try not to go too far, and then after check back in and maybe maybe don't, maybe you could make similar advice about like how to

navigate sexuality. If you are someone

navigate sexuality. If you are someone who's, you know, socioexual, >> this is the problem with these sort of like big population level data, these big surveys. We don't know what the

big surveys. We don't know what the underlying motivation is, right? There

are lots of different ways. the Robert

Plowman. I always think about Robert Plowman when I think about this stuff. I

don't think about casual sex. I think

about Robert Plowman. Yeah.

>> And um he said to me that uh there's lots of ways to get fat. He's talking

about behavioral genetics. He's saying

there's lots of different ways to get fat. Some people have a higher ghrelin

fat. Some people have a higher ghrelin release. Some people have got a bigger

release. Some people have got a bigger stomach. Uh some people just don't like

stomach. Uh some people just don't like exercise. Some people got a slower lower

exercise. Some people got a slower lower BMR. Uh lots of a million other ways I haven't thought about.

>> Okay. What that means is when you look at fat people, you are looking at many different routes up the top of the same mountain. When you look at high body

mountain. When you look at high body count people, many different routes up that. Maybe it's because of social

that. Maybe it's because of social approval. Maybe it's because of a need

approval. Maybe it's because of a need for connection. Maybe it's because of a

for connection. Maybe it's because of a difficulty with commitment. Maybe it's

because of high socioexuality. Maybe

it's because of a high sex drive. Maybe

it's be whatever the whatever's going on. Maybe it's because of your job,

on. Maybe it's because of your job, right? You're a stripper or whatever,

right? You're a stripper or whatever, like or a [ __ ] metal guitar player. I

think I think in that case the the negative predictive outcomes might might be maintained. But yeah, I I completely

be maintained. But yeah, I I completely take your point >> and we don't know how people are getting up because we're just taking these big aggregate pieces of data.

>> I also think that another thing to keep in mind we're the reason that body count means anything is likely because it's a proxy for socioexuality. And so when we're looking at an aggregate, as you

say, sure there's some predictive benefit, but if we were to look at any individual case, you could assess it and say like, okay, well, how predictive is

this of socioexuality? And we even see this in the recent research from um again it's it's it's Thomas's team and I I believe Stuart Williams is on it as well again where they looked at this

across nations and they took a more fine grained nuanced approach than they did in 2019. Y

in 2019. Y >> and what they did was they looked at essentially the effects of recency, right?

>> And it's like if someone can be the same, but if it's like all of them, and you can really think about this, like what's a better cue to socioexuality? If

you're 38 and you meet a woman who's 34 and she's slept with 10 people, but they were all in undergrad and since then it's been like one boyfriend, right?

That's very different to meeting the same 34y old woman who's like, you know, actually it's been 10, but they were all this past month, right? And you're

number 11. Like, what's what's the cue, right, in terms of personality? And what

they found was that people were sensitive to that. And I think they're sensitive to a lot of things. Like I

think that >> if you're talking about like like a body count of seven being quote unquote high, it's not really high for like a 35year-old, right? And it's certainly

35year-old, right? And it's certainly not a 35-year-old for someone who's only slept with one person in the last 10 years.

>> Yeah, exactly. Um, but it actually is insanely high for like a 19-year-old, right? Like that's a shock, right? So, I

right? Like that's a shock, right? So, I

think that for people listening to this, >> I would say that if you're trying to I mean, I talk about this stuff first and foremost because I find it interesting and not necessarily like it's kind of a second order effect. Yeah. If anything

happens to be useful, that's wonderful, right? And we want to extract that as

right? And we want to extract that as much as possible. Uh, but that's not my primary motivation for >> as a life coach. show you.

>> Yeah. Like in terms of looking Yeah. In

terms of looking into it, >> it's um but I would say that if you were trying to glean something practical from this, >> don't I wouldn't take the kind of caveman like, oh, high body count bad,

low body count good approach or or you know, a cave woman as well. Um because

these these preferences are apparently very similar.

>> I would and these outcomes as well.

>> I would say, okay, well, I've got this piece of information, but what's the context of that number? Like, is this a person like, if you want long-term healthy monogamy, is this a person who has had five long-term relationships?

Cuz that might even be like a green flag. If you're like 30 and this they

flag. If you're like 30 and this they they've had relationships, that that sounds pretty good. Um, if you're an undergrad and you met someone and the numbers five and it's all one night, I mean, let's Yeah, that's such a good

point. If you were to do a third

point. If you were to do a third iteration of Thomas' study and say, were these in a committed relationship that lasted for longer than 6 months or were these one-offs? Yeah. Well, the

these one-offs? Yeah. Well, the

>> completely different story.

>> Totally different. Yeah, that's so great.

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