I Just Bought $77,000 Of This Stock
By Joseph Carlson
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Massive Mastercard Position Built**: Bought $77,000 of Mastercard in past 30 days across four trades, building a $183,000 position with only $34,000 in gains, making it the largest in passive income portfolio. [00:15], [03:36] - **3.45% FCF Yield Historical Winner**: Mastercard's 3.45% free cash flow yield is historically cheap; past instances at this level delivered 94%, 77%, and 108% returns over next 3 years, outperforming the market. [06:49], [08:51] - **Mastercard's Widening Moat**: Mastercard evolved beyond credit/debit networks into agnostic payment rails and value-added services like cybersecurity and fraud prevention, applicable to any system including governments, making it less disruptible. [09:12], [12:20] - **Google TPUs Challenge Nvidia**: Google's cheaper TPUs challenge Nvidia's dominance, prompting Nvidia's defensive post admitting Google's success but claiming superiority; Google advances PyTorch support to erode Nvidia's CUDA moat. [16:12], [19:39] - **Gene Munster's Google Flip-Flop**: Seven months ago, Gene Munster called Google an 'eBay' in slow decline due to ChatGPT; now he says Alphabet is the best Mag 7 stock into 2026, following crowd sentiment without alpha. [27:09], [28:53] - **Stranger Things Crashes Netflix**: Stranger Things Season 5 premiered with 86% user and 91% critic ratings, highest of recent seasons; massive simultaneous viewership crashed Netflix for 5 minutes. [25:24], [26:16]
Topics Covered
- Mastercard's 3.45% FCF Yield Historically Delivers 94%+ Returns
- Mastercard Evolves into Unassailable Payments Platform
- Google's TPUs Crack Nvidia's CUDA Moat
- Nvidia's Top Customers Build Their Own GPUs
Full Transcript
Welcome back everyone. Today on the Joseph Carlson show, I just bought $30,000 and another $20,000 and another $15,000 and another $12,000
of the same stock all within the past 30 days. The company's Mastercard. And I
days. The company's Mastercard. And I
bought way more of it than I even said I was going to. In a previous episode, I said I was going to buy 10 to $20,000 of this stock, but now I've bought a total of 77,000
just in the past 30 days alone. Meaning,
when we look at the entire position, it's now a staggering $183,000 position with only $34,000 in the green.
And in this episode, we'll be going over four reasons. Four reasons why I believe
four reasons. Four reasons why I believe Mastercard is in such a strong position today and likely to outperform. We also
have some big news to talk about. Google
starting to make Nvidia dance. They're
starting to challenge Nvidia's dominance with their TPUs. So much so that Nvidia felt the need to write an expost saying that we're delighted by Google's
success. They've done a great job, but
success. They've done a great job, but we're still way ahead by our GPUs. Don't
pay attention to Google. I have a lot of opinions about this new way that Google's challenging Nvidia with their TPUs. And I'm not the only one. We also
TPUs. And I'm not the only one. We also
have Mark Mahaney weighing in on Alphabet, talking about why he believes it's still today such a strong stock going into 2026. We'll be looking at Mark Mahaney's comments on Google. We
also had over the weekend the premiering of Netflix's Stranger Things. It
premiered to great reviews across users and critics with the Rotten Tomato meter being above 86% on both of them. So many
people are trying to watch it that it actually crashed Netflix's service.
We'll be looking at this news and already on Monday we have the fail of the week which in this case we have to highlight Gmon who only 7 months ago was
saying that Google was an eBay a company that's in slow chronic decline. Just a
day ago, Gene Monster went on to TV once again, but he's changed his tune a little bit. Now, he says Alphabet is the
little bit. Now, he says Alphabet is the best Mag 7 to own going into 2026. We'll
be looking at not only Gene Monster, but many other analysts that have lost the plot on Google in the fail of the week.
So, we have all of that to get into, plus much more in this episode. If you
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Now, as we start things off today, we take a look at the buy that I made over the past month. This was the most significant buy that I've done in such a short period of time. The buy is into the company Mastercard. And as you can
see through my trading history, I've made four separate substantial buys.
When I look at Mastercard within the passive income portfolio, it's by far the biggest position in this portfolio.
It's a $183,600 position with $34,000 in the green. The
next largest behind Mastercard in this portfolio is Google, which is a $114,000 position with $48,000 in the green. Now,
Google is a company that I own across both portfolios. Mastercard is a company
both portfolios. Mastercard is a company that I only own in the passive income portfolio. So, if we switch over to the
portfolio. So, if we switch over to the story fund, this is my secondary portfolio. It's a bit more aggressive.
portfolio. It's a bit more aggressive.
And we scroll down and look at the holdings here. I don't have any
holdings here. I don't have any Mastercard in this portfolio. Instead, I
have a lot more Google. I have an additional $74,000 of Google, which is heavily in the green. In fact, the majority of this position is gains at
$46,000 in the green. So this means that when we combine both portfolios, Google is still my largest position by just a little. We can take a look at the
little. We can take a look at the combined portfolio here. We have it right here with Alphabet at the top. A
14% position, $91,400 in gains with the combined positions.
And this does not include dividends.
With dividends, that's another three to $4,000 that Google has paid me. When we
look at Mastercard, it is just slightly smaller from 13.9% to 13.6%.
But only $32,000 in the green. So
Mastercard is a position that I've primarily built up by contributions. If
we look at this by the current value and not percentages, we can actually see the size of these positions relative to each other. For example, Google's a $189,000
other. For example, Google's a $189,000 combined position and Mastercard is $183,000.
So, these are both massive positions, both at around 14%. Now, why am I building up Mastercard to a large position? Well, I do this whenever I
position? Well, I do this whenever I feel that the odds are in my favor, that I have a stock that has a combination of both very low downside and ample upside.
When I feel like I have things right, like I've figured out a position, I tend to lean into it very heavily. When
Netflix was beaten down after they lost subscribers, I started leaning into that company heavily. I made content non-stop
company heavily. I made content non-stop about it. I focused heavily on Netflix
about it. I focused heavily on Netflix until 2025. In 2025, my focus shifted.
until 2025. In 2025, my focus shifted.
We talked a lot about Google. Google's a
company that I've owned for a long period of time. In fact, I've made videos that were bullish on the company going back to 2023, but it's one that I focused on. I leaned into primarily in
focused on. I leaned into primarily in 2025, and that's where I added significantly to the position. But just
like Netflix, I'm no longer buying Google stock. It's gotten to a price
Google stock. It's gotten to a price point where I believe the riskreward and the balance in the future, although still positive, it's not quite as obvious as it once was. Google's being
priced above $300 per share, which more accurately represents the quality of the company. So, as of now, I don't intend
company. So, as of now, I don't intend on making Google the focus of the future. Looking over the many
future. Looking over the many high-quality companies to focus on going into 2025, I believe there's one stock that fits the mold a bit better than the others, which is Mastercard. And I don't believe that Mastercard is another
Google. I don't think it's going to go
Google. I don't think it's going to go up 70% in a single year. But I do believe that Mastercard is a company that investors should strongly consider today for four different reasons. Let's
go through those four different reasons real quick. Reason number one,
real quick. Reason number one, Mastercard trades at a 3.45 free cash flow yield. 3.45%.
flow yield. 3.45%.
You may just look at that and think there's nothing too notable at a company trading at a 3 and 12% free cash flow yield. But for Mastercard, again, this
yield. But for Mastercard, again, this is a notable yield because history shows that this is an undervaluation for this company. Investors should look at
company. Investors should look at companies both on a forward-looking basis with their assumptions of what the company will do moving forward, but they should also look at the company on a backward-looking basis, seeing what the
company has done given different valuations at different time periods.
And we can look at that here with the free cash flow yield over time. We can
look at three distinct time periods throughout history that Mastercard has recently traded at a 3.45% free cash yield, the same today or
above. Meaning time periods where
above. Meaning time periods where Mastercard was as cheap as it is today.
Number one, we look at in 2022, Mastercard for a short period of time traded at a 3.45% free cashial yield. The returns over the
next three years were a staggering plus 94%. So, Mastercard gained a 94% share
94%. So, Mastercard gained a 94% share price increase if you bought it at that 3.45% yield that again it's trading at similar today. The second time you can
similar today. The second time you can see the spike right here. Mastercard for
a very short duration of time traded up to a 3.45% free cash flow yield. The
price went down because of the big COVID scare. And if you bought the company
scare. And if you bought the company during that time period where it traded as cheap as it is today, you got a plus 77% gain over the next three years. Then
we have the third time period, December of 2018. Mastercard for a short period
of 2018. Mastercard for a short period of time went above a 3.45% free cash flow yield or right close to it. It was
very close. If you bought the company right then, you got a 108% return over the next 3 years. every single time period in recent history that Mastercard
has traded at the same free cash flow yield that it does today, the following returns over the next 3 years far outperform the market. In fact,
Mastercard continued to compound at a very high rate after those time periods.
So again, this is a historical analysis.
This shows us what happened at different time periods. But we also want to be
time periods. But we also want to be forward-looking, which brings us to point two. point to a zip Mastercard is
point two. point to a zip Mastercard is a very wide remote company that's very unlikely to be disrupted. It's not just enough to find a company that's trading at a historically cheap price or at a
historically high free cash yield. We
need to know that the company can protect its moat. And I believe that not only is the moat wide, but I believe the moat is getting wider by the day.
Mastercard faces many risks. There's so
many different competitors across the payment networks, across digital payments, across different ways to move money, and there always has been. It's
true that Mastercard and Visa have a duopoly in credit card payments, but they don't really have a duopoly in digital payments. There's so many
digital payments. There's so many different competitors from CLA to PayPal to even government entities making their own payment rails. Many governments in India and South America are making
different versions of a debit network to compete with Mastercard and Visa. So,
these companies aren't without competition, but that's never really been a problem for these companies in the past. They've dealt with harsh
the past. They've dealt with harsh competition going back decades over time. And because payments is such a
time. And because payments is such a huge arena because there's so much money in cash that's moving over to digital, these companies have strong organic pathways for long periods of time. And
Mastercard also has something that they've been doing specifically to address the concerns about competition with their payment networks. First of
all, we have the payment networks themselves, which is around half of Mastercard's total revenue. This is
where you earn money directly by crossber transactions by credit card and by debit card. Now, Mastercard is more primarily driven by credit cards, which I believe is an advantage unique that
Visa doesn't have. But Mastercard has made themselves more agnostic of which type of network they support. Not only
are they supporting their own debit and credit network, now they're supporting all various networks. They want to work with AC transfers. They want to disperse different entitlements. Mastercard has
different entitlements. Mastercard has made themselves not just a credit card company, but an agnostic payment rails company that works with multiple rail networks. That makes them more resistant
networks. That makes them more resistant and more diversified, less reliant on specifically credit cards or debit cards. In the other segment which is the
cards. In the other segment which is the value added services, the name value added services is very ambiguous. It
doesn't say a lot about what they actually do, but this is a part of the company where they pivoted again away from being just a credit card or debit card company. It's true that a lot of
card company. It's true that a lot of their services are attached on to those transactions, but now they've evolved to more of a SAS company, a cyber security company. Mastercard Management has said
company. Mastercard Management has said that they don't really know how people are going to pay for things in the future. That's a question mark that they
future. That's a question mark that they can't really answer. But they do know that every single payment will involve fraud. Every single payment network will
fraud. Every single payment network will involve security and identification and knowing your customer. Every single one of them without a doubt. If you have payments, you will have fraud. If you
have payments, you'll have identity verification. So they are leaning
verification. So they are leaning heavily into those value added services that are more agnostic and more universal. They can be applied to any
universal. They can be applied to any system, including governments.
Mastercard has made themselves not just a payment network company, but now a platform for all of commerce. A company
that can sell these services like a SAS business to any company, even ones that don't use Mastercard's network themselves. The whole goal here is to
themselves. The whole goal here is to make their company even less disruptible than previously thought. So if
governments come up with different solutions, even with those pressures ahead, Mastercard has evolved their business to be highly diversified into all different segments that are much more universal. So with number one, we
more universal. So with number one, we have a company that's historically at a great valuation. Number two, we have a
great valuation. Number two, we have a company that's heavily diversified with a wide moat that's very unlikely to be disrupted in the future. Number three,
we have a company that's growing fast.
Over the last 10 years, Mastercard has grown around 12 to 13% per year. Over
the next 5 years, it's expected to grow around 12 to 13%. It's maintaining this organic high growth rate. When people
spend more money due to increased costs of goods and services, Mastercard is a natural hedge against that. Then when
you add in all their value added services, they have another growth path beyond that. So this company should
beyond that. So this company should sustain high growth rates into the future. Then we get to point four.
future. Then we get to point four.
Mastercard is a company that is very shareholder friendly. And by that, not
shareholder friendly. And by that, not only do they grow, and they generate enormous amounts of free cash flow, but they also don't dilute it away by paying it to all their employees. It's always
great for employees to be rewarded, but as a shareholder, I'm looking out for my own interest. I want that cash to be
own interest. I want that cash to be able to go back to me, the shareholder, not just to employees or people that are inside the company. When we're looking at Mastercard, the huge majority of capital is sent right back to the
shareholders with enormous growing volumes of stock buybacks. We can look at the amount of buybacks they did in 2024, $1 billion worth. This year,
they're going to be doing billions of dollars in increment more than they did in 2024. Mastercard is a dividend
in 2024. Mastercard is a dividend grower, growing the dividend by 15% per year. That's because they add more money
year. That's because they add more money to the bucket that they pay in dividends and they reduce the share count over time, which again grows the dividends per share. So, we have a company that's
per share. So, we have a company that's growing the buybacks over time, growing the dividends by 15% per year. They are
very shareholder friendly and have a very strong capital return policy.
Mastercard is not a complicated bet.
It's not a company that's so unique that no one else can see it. But many
investors continue to overlook some of the easiest buys in the market. We've
seen them do it again and again. And
this company, I believe, has a great case. It's a company worth considering.
case. It's a company worth considering.
When you factor in the low historical valuation, the unlikely chance of being disrupted, the continued fast growth rate, and the shareholder friendly capital return policy, I think that Mastercard will be a winner. That's why
I've put so much money into this company and I've made it such a considerable bet. Now, I realize that this isn't the
bet. Now, I realize that this isn't the company for everyone. And I'm not saying that you need to buy this stock, as I've always done with this channel. I've
given transparency into my own actions, but I've never told you what to do or what investing strategy works for you.
Mastercard is not without risk. Every
company faces competition as does Mastercard as well. But for me, this company is lower risk than most stocks out there. So, I'm happy to have it as a
out there. So, I'm happy to have it as a massive position in my portfolio. Now,
moving on, we get to more news about Google. This is a company that again I
Google. This is a company that again I saw a lot of super investors selling this one down in Q3 of this year and I thought that that was a mistake because Google has so many different catalysts playing out all at the same time that
for me it's a company worth hanging on to especially when it's still trading at the high 20s Ford PE ratio and we have continued bullish news for Google. Not
only is Google a huge cloud winner but it's also a company where those TPUs the TPUs are the chips that Google has worked on themselves for years and years. Well, it turns out that they're
years. Well, it turns out that they're actually really good. They're super good while also being substantially cheaper than Nvidia's chips. Meaning that Nvidia has a new potential problem. A problem
that's not just AMD or the Chinese trying to make their own GPUs and chips, but now it's Google. The Wall Street Journal says the AI trade splinters as Google challenges Nvidia's dominance.
So, what's going on right now? Google
stock is going up while Nvidia stock is going down. You can see a massive
going down. You can see a massive divergence there. This has caught the
divergence there. This has caught the attention of many OpenAI investors, many Nvidia investors, and many Google doubters. In fact, some of the people
doubters. In fact, some of the people that have been previously the most bearish on Google, the ones kind of leaving it out of the talk of being an AI company, the famed investor Philip Leafont who runs Katau, he tweeted for
the first time in years saying, "I bet these dots cross again." Referencing the same chart of Nvidia stock price going down and Google's going up. the 40 best AI companies that they outlined earlier
in 2025. Google wasn't even mentioned.
in 2025. Google wasn't even mentioned.
It didn't even make the list of the top 40 companies and it's outperformed every single one of those 40 companies since that list from Katau was made. So, Flee
Leaf is one of the many huge hedge fund managers, many of the smart money investors that was caught off guard by Google. We have news that Alphabet
Google. We have news that Alphabet shares have continued to climb as different publications like the information have reported that talks with Meta are being done with Google to use their chips to run its data centers.
Alphabet last year increased production of semiconductors in an effort to potentially reduce reliance on outside vendors. As a result of this news of
vendors. As a result of this news of Google and Meta being talked about as doing a deal, Nvidia's newsroom on X decided to release this post. They said,
quote, "We're delighted by Google's success. They've made great advances in
success. They've made great advances in AI and we continue to supply to Google.
NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry. It's the only platform that
industry. It's the only platform that runs every AI model and does it everywhere computing is done. NVIDIA
offers greater performance, versatility, fungeibility than AS6, which are designed for specific AI frameworks and functions. This is not the post that you
functions. This is not the post that you make when you're not concerned about a competitor. And while it may be true,
competitor. And while it may be true, everything that Nvidia said here is probably true. The fact that they even
probably true. The fact that they even had to say this, that they had to go out of their way to just say, "Hey, Google, great job, but our stuff is better." Is
a huge admission that they're facing a new competitor. They thought that Google
new competitor. They thought that Google is now a big enough competitor that they have to address them and then remind people why their chips are better. But
what Nvidia is leaving out of this equation is not just the performance and versatility of their GPUs, but the fact that theirs are far more expensive than Google's. Google's are more specific to
Google's. Google's are more specific to the AI use case and they're cheaper. And
Google's solving one of the biggest problems with competing with Nvidia, which is the CUDA mode. Whenever you
talk to an Nvidia investor, they'll highlight that it's not only the technological supremacy of the GPUs and the complexity of them that makes a moat, but it's also CUDA, the coding
language for using GPUs. In order to actually use the GPUs effectively, you have to use CUDA, which is Nvidia's proprietary language. So, Nvidia has
proprietary language. So, Nvidia has created this software layer mode around their hardware. And this graphic that
their hardware. And this graphic that semi analysis created by Google's notebook LM shows how things may be changing. We have the old way support
changing. We have the old way support for PyTorch, the language choice for most of the AI community, was clunky and seen as a secondass citizen. So there is
kind of like an open- source language, an AI communitydriven language, but it's just not as good as CUDA. So nobody used it. Then you have the Nvidia castle
it. Then you have the Nvidia castle surrounded by the moat, which is CUDA.
But you have this monumental shift taking place. Google's now making a
taking place. Google's now making a massive engineering effort to make the TPUs a native platform for PyTorch. the
key initiatives supporting the eager execution native distribution APIs torch.distdributed and integrated with
torch.distdributed and integrated with torch.compile.
torch.compile.
They also are contributing heavily to open-source inference libraries like LLM. So Google's now already created a
LLM. So Google's now already created a TPU that challenges Nvidia's remote with the hardware, but they're also simultaneously pushing against Nvidia's remote with the software. This forked
attempt at beating Nvidia's moat is what's causing some investors a little bit of concern. Some investors in Nvidia are feeling a little bit defensive and we've seen that online. So, it's very
reasonable to believe that Google now has a real chance of taking some market share from Nvidia from showing other companies that they can manage to actually train their AI to do inference
on their own TPUs and they can license that technology and sell those services directly to competitors like Meta. and
Google's making a lot of advances in that way. At the same time, I believe
that way. At the same time, I believe that Nvidia probably has so much demand right now that it doesn't really matter anyway. Nvidia is going to continue to
anyway. Nvidia is going to continue to be able to sell their GPUs at a very high margin, but this is always been a risk that I feel has existed for Nvidia.
When I look at Nvidia and potentially investing in this company, I recognize it's a super high quality company with high margins. But one of the biggest
high margins. But one of the biggest challenges with Nvidia is that every single one of their largest customers is actively working on creating an alternative product to their GPUs. Out
of their massive monumental growth, around 40% of this revenue comes from only four customers. It comes from Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft.
Those four companies alone make up for almost half of this total revenue. And
all four of those companies are in the works creating their own GPUs. You have
the TPUs from Google. You have tranium from Amazon. You have Meta and Microsoft
from Amazon. You have Meta and Microsoft also working on their own hardware as well. And I don't like the fact that
well. And I don't like the fact that around half the revenue from Nvidia are from customers that are working on their own solutions. When I contrast that with
own solutions. When I contrast that with the likes of ASML, ASML also has a high concentration into few customers. In
fact, ASML's concentration into their customer base is even higher than NVIDIA's. Yet, the difference is ASML's
NVIDIA's. Yet, the difference is ASML's customers are not trying to replace them. They're not trying to build their
them. They're not trying to build their own lithography machines because ASML's customers understand that building a lithography machine is simply just too complex. On a scale of complexity, an
complex. On a scale of complexity, an ASML lithography machine is on a scale of 100 times more complex than an NVIDIA Blackwell machine. ASML is simply just
Blackwell machine. ASML is simply just more difficult to replicate. So, when
I'm looking at my hardware play, the company that I want to invest in that's the gatekeeper of the AI revolution, I continue to pick ASML over Nvidia. Part
of the reason I continue to hold Google going into 2025 is because I believe we're going to see more storylines like this of Alphabet continuing to take share from companies like Nvidia.
They're going to take share from companies like ChachiBT. And although
the price has moved up to a more fair valuation, I believe analysts will continue to become more and more bullish on this company. Mark Mahane is one of them.
>> Uh yeah, we've had a phenomenal run in the stock. It's um whatever doubled over
the stock. It's um whatever doubled over the last uh 6 months. It kind of reminds me a little bit of the dramatic recovery you had in Meta and Netflix's stocks 3 years ago, except those were stock recoveries off of what were kind of
broken fundamentals. That's never been
broken fundamentals. That's never been the case with Google. Their fundamentals
were really have been pretty consistent.
It's just that the market was so negative on Google 6 months ago because of the DOJ and because of um and because of chat GPT. And I just think this market was way too negative. The stock
was oversold at 15 times earnings. Is it
overbought here 29 times? No. But I
think that the the the pitch you make for um it's very hard to see a material rerating in the multiple the multiple going materially higher from here. But
fundamentals look great for the company and this this big broad pitch they can make of we've got the leading AI model.
We've got the broadest way to monetize that of any company in the world. Oh
yeah, and we've got the lowest cost infrastructure because we're vertically integrated up and down the tech stack.
That's a very powerful pitch. And so I think this stock is now a highquality compounder. It can largely hold the
compounder. It can largely hold the multiple although watch for some negative catalyst coming from Chad GPT in the next 12 months but it can largely hold the multiple and the stock can go higher from here. I think there are
better candidates from here more dislocated opportunities but you know all the credit goes to Google and I think the stock can still compound. I
think you can still hold it. I
completely agree with Mark Mahoney. I
think he's spot on. He describes Google as a continued compounding machine that should be able to hold around the same multiple as the earnings continue to grow. And I also agree that we'll see
grow. And I also agree that we'll see likely some negative catalyst with chatbt. You can see news that Chacht has
chatbt. You can see news that Chacht has a new model or something more competitive to Google or that they start having ads on their searches or what have you. There's going to be some news
have you. There's going to be some news that seems a little scary for Google over the next year like there always is, but Google still remains an incredibly good bet. the company that owns robo
good bet. the company that owns robo taxi networks, YouTube, Google Cloud, now the TPUs that are posing a real storyline threat against Nvidia. So,
when I look at Google, I still want to hold it in my portfolio, although I agree with him that there are more dislocated companies at this point in time. Now, we get to another company
time. Now, we get to another company that I haven't talked about as much recently. It's been one that hasn't
recently. It's been one that hasn't really been dislocated for a while, but it's starting to trend down a little bit, giving investors an opportunity to enter back into this company, which is
Netflix. It used to be at $132 per
Netflix. It used to be at $132 per share, split adjusted. When we look at it now, it's at 108. So, it's giving investors a little bit of a potential entryway. This stock is going to have a
entryway. This stock is going to have a great Q4. I pay attention to which shows
great Q4. I pay attention to which shows are out there and which ones are garnering a lot of attention. Stranger
Things season 5 premiered last week.
Now, you can have your opinions on the show or that the characters look older.
Of course, they look older. It reminds
me of the old '8s shows where you had 25year-olds pretending to be high schoolers, and that's true, but you can't deny that this season is not entertaining. It's very entertaining.
entertaining. It's very entertaining.
Overall, the story line is very well paced. We look at the ratings so far,
paced. We look at the ratings so far, and user ratings are 86%, the critics have it at 91%. Which is the highest of the last four seasons going into these first four episodes. So, there's a lot
more to go as they're going to be doing another two drops of episodes going into Christmas. When we look at the
Christmas. When we look at the popularity of Stranger Things, it was so much so many different people tried getting on at the same time to watch it right as it was being released on
Netflix that the premiere crashed Netflix for 5 minutes. The streamer
crashed at 5:00 p.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, just as the highly anticipated fifth season of the sci-fi series premiered. Why did Netflix crash
series premiered. Why did Netflix crash on the premiere of this show? because
hundreds of millions of people were all trying to watch the same show at the same time, which is very rare. Netflix
somehow has a way of creating massive hits and they do it over and over again.
We had Squid Game and Demon Hunters that set new records and now we have the new season of Stranger Things that will likely set records as well. There's a
lot going for this company. It's one
that I'm still happy to have in the portfolio and I think we're going to have a great Q4 from it. I'm looking
forward to their next earnings report.
Now, moving on, we get to our fail of the week, which in this case is one that I'm regretfully doing. I didn't want to do this one. I like Gene Monster. He
seems like a nice guy, but he is an analyst. He's going on TV. He's putting
analyst. He's going on TV. He's putting
himself out there, which means he does open himself up to criticism. So, I have to say something about this. In April
25th of 2025, meaning just 7 months ago, this is what Gene Monster was saying about Google.
>> Basic terms, Google is becoming eBay effectively. its energy is getting
effectively. its energy is getting zapped out. Before eBay, it was Amazon
zapped out. Before eBay, it was Amazon kind of taking its energy out. Now it's
GPT, Enthropic, and Grock doing the same.
>> Now, there wasn't any real qualifiers.
He just said that Google's becoming eBay because Chachbt is zapping out the energy of Google, similar to how Amazon zapped out the energy of eBay. And this
is something that we don't need to look at in hindsight to know that this was false at the time. In fact, at the time that he said this, the very week I made a video saying referring to Google as an
eBay is both ridiculous and patently false. And if he just stopped there, if
false. And if he just stopped there, if Gene Monster just got this call wrong, that's fine. But now he's on TV once
that's fine. But now he's on TV once again. Let's go ahead and just take a
again. Let's go ahead and just take a look at a recent appearance this last week. Here we have Gene Monster once
week. Here we have Gene Monster once again invited back on to CNBC for his expert opinion on Google. Let's go ahead and take a listen.
>> Our next guest says Alphabet will be the best Mag 7 stock for the next year. Deep
Waters Gene Monster joins us now. That's
a bold bold bold statement. Why? Our
next guest now says that Alphabet will be the best stock for next year going into 2026. And he calls it a bold bold
into 2026. And he calls it a bold bold statement. You're wrong, Scott. It's not
statement. You're wrong, Scott. It's not
a bold statement. There's nothing bold about picking the stock that currently has the most momentum, the the most good things going on in the company and saying that's the best buy for next
year. What is bold is coming out and
year. What is bold is coming out and saying that 7 months ago when other people were referring to it as an eBay, when other people are saying that this stock is doomed, that it's losing market
share. Saying that it's the best buy
share. Saying that it's the best buy back then is very bold. Saying that it's the best buy now is not bold at all. In
fact, it's the opposite of bold. It is
being spineless and just following with the crowd, doing what everybody else is doing at the same time they're doing it.
Following the common sentiment with no dissenting view whatsoever. So, what
Gene Monster is doing here is the opposite of bold. But we'll continue to watch GM's case, Scott. It's for two reasons. Number one is that this bare
reasons. Number one is that this bare case around them being able to compete and navigate with generative AI taking away from search. That bare case has been essentially addressed by them
accelerating search from the June quarter. Then again comfortably beating
quarter. Then again comfortably beating by 300 basis points the growth for the street in the September quarter giving expectations that show that we're in a good place. Essentially, they're
good place. Essentially, they're capturing all of this renewed interest that people have in finding out information and train or or tunneling that into search revenue. And the second
piece is that the this gets by what to why the stock is up today is that uh this Gemini showing that they in fact have the chops to compete toe-to-toe
from a large language model perspective against open AI is encouraging for investors that the company's culture has been reignited to compete. And so what that's important is that over the next
year, you're going to see more distribution. That's what the playbook's
distribution. That's what the playbook's going to change for next year around these chat bots. Keep in mind that it's only about 20% of the Google population uses a chatbot daily. Big opportunity.
And I think as they expand that, the multiple will go up.
>> I'm sorry. I just I can't do this. Gene
Monster 7 months ago when the multiple was half of what it is now was saying that it was in eBay and now he's saying the multiple should go up from a 30 even further than what it is today. These are
the analysts that are being recognized and continually brought on every single week after week on CNBC to inform their audience that the company that just recently went up 70% is the best buy
today, the best stock to buy going into 2026. Gene wasn't ahead of Wall Street
2026. Gene wasn't ahead of Wall Street at all on this. He didn't have any extra alpha to provide whatsoever. He
completely followed and tracked the exact popular sentiment of Google the entire way. And now that sentiment's at
entire way. And now that sentiment's at an all-time high, Gene Monster sentiment is at an all-time high. This is not the type of analysis that generates alpha.
And for that reason, Gene Monster is the fail of the week. That's going to be this episode. Hope you enjoyed. See you
this episode. Hope you enjoyed. See you
in the next one.
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