Markets Are Approaching Big Resistance With Structural Shifts To The Upside
By Geeks of Finance
Summary
## Key takeaways - **S&P 500 Gamma Shift to 7000**: The largest gamma exposure is now at the 7,000 strike unlike previous rejections at 6900, making this a buy the dip opportunity rather than dealer selling pressure above 7000. [00:27], [00:53] - **QQQ Net GEX Positive Divergence**: QQQ saw net GEX decline but remains positive, while IWM and S&P show net negative GEX, creating divergence. [01:30], [01:42] - **SLV Breaks Out Above 50 Strike**: SLV up 2.52% closing at 52.50, breaking out of consolidation with price running through the large gamma exposure at 50, now trading above upper dealer cluster at 50-51. [02:59], [03:15] - **VIX Maintaining Higher Lows**: VIX last week's low at 15.78 higher than November 2nd's 15.63, maintaining higher lows despite sloppiness. [05:19], [05:25] - **SoFi Holding Call Spreads to 30**: Entered December 19th 28-30 call debit spreads on November 24th when SoFi at 27.05 with big gamma at 30; now at 29.20 with nearly 50,000 contracts traded at 30 strike, planning to hold for upside to 30-32. [06:46], [07:50] - **ADI Pullback Risk to 245-250**: ADI extended to upper dealer cluster at 270 with little GEX above 280; pullback could target volume at 245 and big GEX cluster at 250, near zero gamma and Hull MA. [08:46], [09:14]
Topics Covered
- S&P Gamma Shift Buys Dips
- QQQ Fills Gap to 610 Support
- Silver Leads Gold Breakout
- VIX Higher Lows Favor Bulls
- SoFi Targets 30 Gamma Pin
Full Transcript
The S&P 500 was lower today, rejecting out of this zone that we've seen build over the past month. During the course of November, we've seen multiple
rejections between the 6800 and 6900 zone. This has been an a large area of
zone. This has been an a large area of resistance on the S&P 500. And over the last several trading sessions, starting to see a little bit of a rolling over in
this zone down 53% closing at 681263.
The largest gamma exposure, however, continues to be at this 7,000 strike.
And so, the main difference between the price action over the last several days versus the price action over these previous two major rejections is how gamma exposure is structured. This time
around, instead of having the largest gam exposure at the 6,900 level, the largest gam exposure is now at the 7,000 strike, meaning that this is more than
likely a buy the dip opportunity rather than a larger rejection accompanied by dealer selling pressure. So, most of the dealer selling pressure is going to be above the 7,000 strike given the current
gamma exposure setup. We continue to see rather large volume every single trading session. Today it was well over 50,000
session. Today it was well over 50,000 contracts traded at that 7,000 strike.
So these are out of the money calls and puts that are being bought and sold at the 7,000 strike and in recent days we've seen as many as a 100,000 contracts being traded way up there at that level.
>> Thanks Anthony. Uh let's take a look at QQQ. And I want to start with the weekly
QQQ. And I want to start with the weekly chart. And I did also want to note that
chart. And I did also want to note that uh QQQ saw net gex decline today, but it's still positive. Whereas we see IWM and S&P both showing net negative GEX.
So there is some divergence there. But
let's look at a few key levels that may prove important for QQQ in the next few days. First off, technically we see
days. First off, technically we see today rejected a move past this whole moving average at 618 on the weekly chart. Uh we need to get through that 16
chart. Uh we need to get through that 16 area to tag this 620 GEX cluster and ultimately the upper dealer cluster zone which is currently at 630. I have our
net GEX selected on the chart. You can
also see we have a large uh noteworthy GEX position at 590 for QQQ. Let's zoom
in a bit further and take a look at the daily chart reflecting QQQ's price being a little bit extended above the whole moving average so far. This gap is likely to be filled, but with the whole
moving average rising, this may end up converging because of the whole u matching price as it moves sideways. So,
there's a number of ways this gap could be filled. I switched to gross gex. So,
be filled. I switched to gross gex. So,
we could see positive and negative clusters at each strike. And you can see 610 does have a considerable amount of GEX. And so potentially a further
GEX. And so potentially a further decline to 610 may find some support and that would very likely end up getting very close to the whole moving average as the whole moving average is rising.
>> Thanks Sean. You know I wanted to point out that the metals markets are on fire once again. Let's take a look at silver
once again. Let's take a look at silver specifically SLV. The silver ETF up
specifically SLV. The silver ETF up 2.52% today closing at 5250. And just
over the last several trading sessions, SLV has really broken out of this larger consolidation range that's taken place over the last couple of months. You can
see the large gam exposure at the 50 strike that's been in place, of course, now for several weeks with price running right through that level over the last two days. You can see our upper dealer
two days. You can see our upper dealer cluster zone is right there between 50 and 51. So, we're trading well above
and 51. So, we're trading well above that level currently. We think this is a pretty decent area for some sort of slight pullback or consolidation just above that 50 strike. Obviously, game
exposure is the largest at that 50 strike. And even if we scroll up the
strike. And even if we scroll up the options chain and look at gam exposure further up, you know, we're starting to see gamma exposure growing at the 55 and 60 strike. And we even have more gamma
60 strike. And we even have more gamma exposure growing at even higher strikes all the way up into 70s. And this is a similar phenomenon uh as what we've been
seeing in GLD, which is the gold ETF.
We've been seeing uh some strength over the last several trading sessions. Of
course, GLD not quite getting to its previous highs that we saw earlier in October, trading over the 400 strike. In
this case, we think silver could actually be leading gold this time around with silver making new highs while we see game exposure starting to grow at higher strikes on GLD at the 400
strike and above as you can see here on our GEX chart. So, flipping back to our SLV chart again, we're looking for some consolidation, maybe just a couple of days trading around the 50 to 52 area.
Maybe a slight pullback, but I think this is a name that we're looking to add to our portfolios, potentially with a similar weekly income strategy as what we've been doing on GLD, potentially
adding SLV to the mix as this breakout has begun unfolding. By the way, you can track our trades in real time as we manage our options portfolio by becoming a member at geeksofinance.com.
You can also get a sneak peek of what we're trading right now by checking out our community Discord absolutely free.
Links in the description below. All
right, changing focus to the VIX. Uh
let's look at the weekly VIX chart. We
still don't have very much meaningful negative GEX appearing below the 16 strike with the largest GEX cluster appearing as negative GEX at the 18 strike. And I noticed uh last week's low
strike. And I noticed uh last week's low in the VIX was still higher at 1578.
Then the low from November 2nd, which was 1563. So uh even though it's a
was 1563. So uh even though it's a little sloppy here, we're still seeing the VIX maintain higher lows where it counts. You know, market bulls really
counts. You know, market bulls really want to see that 1563 broken. Make this
pattern start looking a little bit more dicey for volatility bulls. We're a
little bit extended below the weekly hole, uh which is actually almost right at that 20 strike. Let's briefly look at the 2-hour chart for the VIX. Today saw
a rejection of the 2-hour whole moving average, which is angled downward. This
is a positive sign for market bulls. And
we still have this downtrend with the Kelner channels occurring. So any bounce in the VIX is likely to uh fail in the 20 range. As long as the Kelner channels
20 range. As long as the Kelner channels continue to be fairly good guides for where the VIX reverses and tops. Given
that today's close was below the hole, uh we could see another retest of this 16 area before there's another attempt to buy the VIX to turn back up. All
right, next let's take a look at a trade that we are currently in on SoFi. SoFi
has made a pretty strong move over the last week or so. We actually entered a trade back on November 24th, buying five
of the December 19th SoFi 2830 call debit spreads at 71. And if we just zoom into our screenshot from our post at the
time, SoFi was trading at 2705.
One of the highlights for taking this trade was this big dip that we saw below the 50-day EMA. And we started to see some momentum and some buyers stepping
in as SoFi dipped well below 25, but big gamma exposure at the 30 strike. And on
this particular day back on November 24th, there was also big volume at that 30 strike as well with price trading at 27. And so this is one of our favorite
27. And so this is one of our favorite setups. Big pullbacks or retracements
setups. Big pullbacks or retracements into major technical levels with gamma exposure and big positioning coming into the options market at these far out of the money strikes. And that's the exact
same setup that we saw on SoFi back here on November 24th. So let's fast forward to today. SoFi is currently trading at
to today. SoFi is currently trading at $292 as of today's close. It was actually down 2.36%.70
down 2.36%.70 during today's trading session, but still well above the 50-day EMA, which is currently sitting at 27.65.
And most importantly, we're seeing large gamma exposure at the 30 strike accompanied with large volume in the options market. Nearly 50,000 contracts
options market. Nearly 50,000 contracts traded today at that 30 strike. So, that
does appear to be a target for market participants. You do see some negative
participants. You do see some negative gamma exposure here at these strikes between the 25 and the 30 strike.
However, we're also seeing positive gamma exposure building above the 30 strike. And of course, if we go back to
strike. And of course, if we go back to the end of October, we saw a couple of peaks here above 30, even getting near the 32 level. That ultimately resulted
in uh selling pressure coming in. But we
think there's another attempt here at getting above that 30 level, potentially up to 32 and above as we head into year end. And so we're going to continue
end. And so we're going to continue holding our 2830 call debit spreads for the next week or two and we'll see if we can get some further upside movement towards that 30 strike. That'll be a
really nice profit if we do get back up above 30. All right, my last one this
above 30. All right, my last one this evening is going to be analog devices.
ADI. The daily and weekly chart show price being uh pretty well extended over the whole moving average and right at the doorstep of the upper dealer cluster zone at the 270 strike. It was a nice
breakout from this consolidation that we saw that really went all the way from July into November. But the key here is not that can't overshoot that 270 GEX
cluster. It very well may, but we barely
cluster. It very well may, but we barely see any GEX above 280 at this moment. So
bulls will want to see GEX grow above 280. Otherwise, this volume that we see
280. Otherwise, this volume that we see at 245 and the big DEX cluster we see at 250 may end up being a uh a target in the event of a pullback that would
represent just about halfway back from this spike. It would get us close to the
this spike. It would get us close to the zero gamma level and it's not too far from where the whole moving average is.
So a very logical spot for a pullback.
And that 245 target looks pretty good as well. And guys, you can still take
well. And guys, you can still take advantage of our Cyber Monday sale. You
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out. Thanks so much everybody for watching and we'll see you guys in the next
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