News-Driven Week For Crypto, What's in Store For August?

All right, welcome everyone and happy August officially. We're here on August

August officially. We're here on August 1st, 2025 talking about the crypto markets, giving you guys an update on what sentiment is showing in terms of

onchain and social and even development activity uh in terms of movement, in terms of where we see markets now versus

where they may go next based on historical similarities uh in terms of where data is uh pointing. And right now

we're on a bit of a downswing. Uh it has not been a a severely painful week for crypto traders, but there has been a bit more of a retrace than uh upside as of

late. So there is going to be an

late. So there is going to be an increased interest in buy the dip. We'll

get to that on the show and talk a little bit about some of the key altcoins. uh obviously not just uh

key altcoins. uh obviously not just uh about Ethereum but we're gonna look into a little bit of XRP uh try to jump into Salana a few other top caps like chain

link stuff like that but what I wanted to start off with was a little look at the past week of alpha

narratives because we've really had a news driven end of July uh in terms of you know what what the real world has in

store and And with crypto becoming more institutionalized, a lot more synonymous with um fluctuations that will align with the

S&P 500, that's going to cause a lot more uh variables that are independent from what cryptocurrencies will usually do on

their own. So for example, we've got

their own. So for example, we've got more news about Trump and uh tariff hikes with Canada right now. Um India

just uh responded with some some tariff uh actions of their own by refusing to buy

certain types of jets from the US. um

there's still things that are affecting markets on a daily basis that are not related directly to the onchain utilization of Bitcoin or Ethereum or

etc. Um so what I'm looking at now are some of the key spikes that show up on this chart. basically anomalies from

this chart. basically anomalies from these uh 20 or so topics that have been driving crypto markets and how they've

shaped the way that we've seen the price fluctuations move. Starting right from

fluctuations move. Starting right from the top, you can see the biggest spike we had was this huge AI spike uh at the beginning of the week, July 24th.

Obviously, AI is is still very synonymous with crypto. we have an entire AI and big data sector in terms of uh different coins that are

associated with AI that tend to go up significantly. So we did see you know

significantly. So we did see you know coins like Render and a few others having some mini breakouts as a result of this spike. Um this one in particular

if you see over on the left side of my screen as I hover with my mouse you can see there's discussions related to AI

generated images and NFT creation. So

having the the next step of NFTTS be the the creation of them through the use of AI seems like a natural course of action. I know it's already underway and

action. I know it's already underway and there's entire communities that are already working on that. People are also talking about chat GPT5 which is highly anticipated. We've been stuck on four

anticipated. We've been stuck on four for um I think a little over a year now uh give or take.

Um, we're also able to now monitor user behavior and psychology using AI, AR technology, DAPI project and its goal of enabling direct NFT creation with AI. I

won't go through all of these, but AI has been a big topic and you'll continue to see it drive markets as the uh final

third or so of the year progresses.

Um, Ethereum price has also been on people's minds. Obviously, Ethereum went

people's minds. Obviously, Ethereum went on that plus 150% rally after its bottom in early April. Uh so with it

significantly surging past Bitcoin's price, there's obviously been a much bigger target. And we'll look at some of

bigger target. And we'll look at some of the onchain and social metrics to dig into what Ethereum's been doing lately.

Um again, so we see Ethereum price here and then again another Ethereum price copy here. So two different segments

copy here. So two different segments that our AI has produced uh indicating that Ethereum has been a major talking point. These are just going to be

point. These are just going to be different topics talking more about the support and resistance levels that have been very hot topics across social media. You've seen a few different

media. You've seen a few different spikes with the latest being right now during the uh time of this recording.

We see um the importance of Bitcoin and some of the topics about its association with uh other coins and their market prices which should be very obvious to

most of you by now. We also see um a lot of discussion with market psychology uh of Bitcoin holders and and how it's uh approached as an investment now versus

some of the previous years.

The big spike here was Bitcoin's price more at the beginning of the week when it was testing that 120K level still.

Now it's down to about 115.

Another Bitcoin price entry. So we're

seeing a couple duplicates. Kind of

interesting. It's really emphasizing just how much um the top two market caps have been talked about over the previous week. Salana has had a little bit of a

week. Salana has had a little bit of a minor spike. I won't go into these

minor spike. I won't go into these details, but many of you that follow Salana closely uh probably saw the

biggest social interest spike around 36ish hours ago.

Gaming minor spikes there. Uh, I see memecoins. Is this supposed to be? Yeah,

memecoins. Is this supposed to be? Yeah,

it is memecoins. Um, the FOMC is a separate topic and we'll get into that as well. Meme coins like uh Doge, Pepe,

as well. Meme coins like uh Doge, Pepe, and Whiff. Speculation on which one will

and Whiff. Speculation on which one will lead the next 100x run. So, those are the top meme coins out there that are getting the most popularity right now.

They got kind of a midweek spike when altcoins were seeing a mini breakout. Uh

but that altcoin rally was short-lived and once it's short-lived, memecoins tend to struggle hardest and suddenly there's very little social volume about it.

ETFs um will we'll look into the ETF dashboard as well on this call. Uh we

actually saw an outflow day yesterday after three straight very very small inflow days. So, um, that's worth paying

inflow days. So, um, that's worth paying attention to because this rally that we saw over the past three and a half months was very much sparked by tons of

institutional money and a little bit of retail money moving into these Bitcoin ETFs. Uh, we'll show you the graph that

ETFs. Uh, we'll show you the graph that really illustrates just how high those inflows were. Arts, this is mainly just

inflows were. Arts, this is mainly just related to NFTTS. You can see they both spiked around the same time.

Right now, alt season is getting a a pretty massive surge on social media, which is interesting because uh altcoins at this time are not uh thriving.

They're actually kind of retracing a little harder than Bitcoin is, as is usually the case when Bitcoin is dropping.

Bitcoin whale movements. So, this one's been big. Um, let me take a quick pit

been big. Um, let me take a quick pit stop here because I wanted to look at the latest top transactions and then we'll finish off that alpha narratives

look. So, going to top transactions.

look. So, going to top transactions.

I'm just going to add it to this current window.

Going to sort by value. And you can see we actually just had the second largest move over the past month. Um, roughly

two to three hours ago depending on your time zone. Uh so 17,228

time zone. Uh so 17,228 based on $115,000 value. Obviously

that's going to be hundreds of millions of dollars if I'm not mistaken. The

biggest by far was the July 16th move where there was a whopping 77,446 Bitcoin moved. This one was heavily

Bitcoin moved. This one was heavily discussed across social media. Um, you

can see the transaction hash here.

And yeah, input value of $9 million. That

sounds actually kind of low based on that amount of Bitcoin, but you get the idea. It's one of the biggest

idea. It's one of the biggest transactions we've seen all year long.

Um, and you know, if if we look at the price of Bitcoin during that time, it was pretty much right after the all-time high hit a little above 123K. So, right

about here. And we've kind of been pretty flat ever since. Uh, in fact, I can I can refresh just to make sure it goes all the way to the right here.

There we go. Yeah. So, you can see it was right around here where that big transaction was made and we've kind of faded a little bit ever since. It's

actually down to 114.5K at the time of this recording. Now,

heading back to Alpha Narratives for a few more topics.

Um, here's the ETF spike where we mostly saw a lot of hype toward the beginning of the week. There were a lot of discussions about Black Rockck's

Ethereum ETF. So, this isn't just

Ethereum ETF. So, this isn't just related to Bitcoin ETFs. U, but the sentiment in the crypto community on Twitter seems to be bullish toward the Ethereum ETF inflows with many

anticipating further price increases for Ethereum. We don't yet have a dashboard

Ethereum. We don't yet have a dashboard for the Ethereum ETFs, but we hope to have that soon. Um and it it's definitely um just like Bitcoin, the

prices have been very much aided by the fact that these big institutional uh money waves are coming into these ETFs, driving up prices and allowing a

lot of um individuals and companies uh to be able to ride the waves of these prices without having to own the coins on chain.

So, we talked about the Bitcoin whale movements. We have NFTTS.

movements. We have NFTTS.

The White House crypto report um they released a crypto policy report which focused on tokenization and upcoming regulations. Um it's funny that it's

regulations. Um it's funny that it's being written in past tense, but yeah, the the report's expected to include details on the feasibility of a strategic national stockpile. The Trump

administration has been supportive of Bitcoin and crypto. Um, and that obviously has not changed. So,

that's been a topic, or at least it was a brief topic on July 30th. Dogecoin

itself, you see that big spike here. And

then a few more very minor spikes. BTFD

by the blank dip is what that stands for. So, that was after a very small dip

for. So, that was after a very small dip that happened on the 25th. And then

finally, we saw stable coins making a minor uh bump in social volume on July 30th. Um they've obviously been a big

30th. Um they've obviously been a big topic all year long. There's been an introduction of new stable coins like AUSD and Wyoming stable token, the

growth of the stable coin t market, and the integration of stable coins in crossber currency exchange. There's also

mention of the Genius Act laying the foundation for a more secure stable coin future and the use of stable coins on different blockchain platforms like core and bitcoin.

So those are some of the topics that have been driving markets the most. Um

we have a lot we can cover in terms of the actual metrics. Now, um, besides those, uh, huge transactions that I just showed with the latest being just a few

hours ago, um, I'm seeing that the sentiment has been eerily neutral. It's

certainly not negative right now, but you can see some of the big positive spikes versus where we are now. So, it

it's a lot of traders just kind of sitting on their hands, not being too sure of where we're going to go next or what the right move is. Uh, I would expect that we're going to start seeing

some buy the dip talk jumping in. Um,

we're going to take a quick look at that here.

And what I like to do is just type in uh in parentheses by or buying or bot,

if I can spell bot correctly, and um the word dip.

and we'll just go to the last month.

So, check that out. This social dominant spike here indicates we're seeing the highest level of dip by enthusiasm that we have in the past month. Now, this

isn't necessarily a great sign. We

actually find that the best opportunities to buy dips are when the crowd isn't seeing it as an opportunity because the markets move the opposite direction of the crowd's expectations.

So, the fact that there's this big dip by spike right now, that means that a lot of retail investors think that the 114K level is low enough to start piling

in money again, which means institutional investors and whales can see this and find ways to sell off to them if they so choose. doesn't mean

they will, but often times they'll they'll sell off in these situations until retailers get a little more humbled or a little less greedy um about mild dips like we're seeing at the

moment. And it is a mild dip. I mean,

moment. And it is a mild dip. I mean,

we've been kind of ranging in this 11718K range and suddenly 114K is back on the menu. That's only about a little

over a 1% to 2% drop. And I just I think that the crowd looks to be very anxious right now

just to get in on any dips they can because they think these surges are inevitable and sometimes it takes a little bit of time before we see some sort of rebound to that 123k all-time

high. So, we'll see how this plays out,

high. So, we'll see how this plays out, but I I don't love this sign as an indication that we're quickly going to recover. looks to be very fueled by

recover. looks to be very fueled by Reddit here as well as 4chan right now is seeing a big spike in by the dip discussions.

While we're here, the Fed um released their or I should say they they decided to leave interest rates as

is. So the FOMC meeting resulted in the

is. So the FOMC meeting resulted in the expected outcome of no interest rate changes to the uh chagrin of Donald

Trump and the White House administration which are hoping to see interest rate cuts. Uh that would of course if and

cuts. Uh that would of course if and when those interest rate cuts happen um that would of course help cryptocurrency prices be able to thrive on the backs of

economic um or I should say stock market growth in particular. And if we look at some of the I'll come back to the ETF

dashboard. If we look at the correlation

dashboard. If we look at the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, some interesting patterns. Um, you can

see that the S&P is actually down quite a bit. This is its biggest retrace in in I think it would have to be going

back to right around No, that can't be right. it it's certainly one of the

right. it it's certainly one of the larger retraces that we're seeing at the moment, but I don't think it goes all the way back to May. There have been a few little mini ones within here. Either

way, you're seeing the S&P and Bitcoin both kind of going down together just as they've gone up together. If I hide gold, you can see the correlation a little more clearly. And yeah, the two

of them are are just very tight uh in terms of their fluctuations together right now. So, it's not a surprise

right now. So, it's not a surprise whatsoever that Bitcoin is kind of dropping a bit as the S&P 500 has as well.

And by the way, putting gold back, you can see that gold is almost going inverse to the other two. So, it's

actually having a a good day today. Um

this happens a lot when tariffs are announced by the way because the entire confidence in fiat and uh worldwide

global currency takes a hit whenever we get news about more tariff news and hikes and countries essentially not getting along uh and trade war escalating.

All right. So, here's the ETF dashboard.

As I mentioned, you can see all of these huge inflow days, well over $5 billion during this chunk here with all these big spikes. And then we saw these three

big spikes. And then we saw these three concerning outflow days, albeit they were quite minor in mid to late July.

Um, we recovered with a few minor inflow days. And yesterday we actually saw um a

days. And yesterday we actually saw um a pretty sizable outflow day that should be considered a bit of a concern because so much of this rally has been

perpetuated by institutional money coming into the ETFs and of course um on the key stakeholder side onchain it's

mainly matched to this but these small drops here are showing that maybe this rally is losing a bit of steam uh at least at least in terms of constant

inflows of money pouring in. So, we're

watching this close. Obviously, Black

Rockck's been in the news. They're still

accumulating. We haven't seen them have an outflow day uh since June 6th. I know

it says fifth on my screen, but it's actually the sixth. It's one day behind.

Um, but you, yeah, I mean, Black Rockck's done its part with only three outflow days going all the way back to midappril, but others are a little more mixed. You

know, here's the Fidelity one with plenty of outflows going around. Uh,

Grayscale is always going to be going down because it's kind of the older ETF that's being replaced by the newer ones.

Uh, ARCB, kind of a mixed bag.

Invesco pretty small sample size there.

Bitwise pretty mixed bag as well.

And the VANC Bitcoin Trust ETF flow actually does look pretty good. It

actually had a massive out inflow day um here on the 24th. But yeah, I mean, Black Rockck is is doing its part, but overall the the

concerning thing is the minor outflows that are starting to creep in with four of the last nine days of seeing a net amount of money moving out rather than

moving in.

Okay, some other things. We're going to look at Bitcoin's key stakeholders now.

So overall, the long-term trend looks fine. Um, this is the past three months

fine. Um, this is the past three months of wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin and what their collective holdings are.

Keep in mind they hold uh a collective 68.4% of all Bitcoin. So a little over 2/3. It

should be quite obvious that with such a large sample held, they're going to be controlling markets day in and day out most of the time. So, what we really look for are bullish or bearish

divergences where, you know, the price is going down, but this group of holders is accumulating because that would indicate that we're likely going to see a turnaround at some point, which we did

here on June 4th, which ended up being a local bottom. We saw one more here on

local bottom. We saw one more here on June 21st and then we really blasted off until that mid July all-time high.

Overall, in the last three months, the 10 to 10k wallets have accumulated about 172,720.

Bitcoin adding about 1.3% to their stacks. Overall, I think this looks fine. Uh some may point out that

looks fine. Uh some may point out that we're actually down a bit since July 15th. Um, why is this lagged though?

15th. Um, why is this lagged though?

Hold on.

We've got a little more data.

Better. Yeah, not much changes. So,

since July 15th, that's when we were at the top. 13.63 million was the all-time

the top. 13.63 million was the all-time high amount held. Um, which was just a couple days after that all-time high.

Not a coincidence.

and then we started to tail off just like Bitcoin did. So, you can see how well this tends to correlate with prices. And when there's divergences,

prices. And when there's divergences, that's when it's just a really obvious um sign that you can buy with confidence or take profit with confidence. I I'd

say right now though, price is kind of following along closely. So, there isn't much of a a divergence or um instance to take advantage of like we normally would.

Also notice Bitcoin's overall social dominance is starting to rise once again. Um this gap right here where the

again. Um this gap right here where the social dominance obviously it it peaked here on July 13th which was the all-time high but you can see the gap in which it started to drop down. This was largely

due to Ethereum and XRP and some other top caps going on big runs themselves taking the conversation a little bit away from Bitcoin and moving it more

toward some top altcoins. So now with Bitcoin starting to drop, eyes are starting to turn back toward Bitcoin as

dip buyers are discussing, you know, at what level would be the perfect time to buy back in.

Overall, this is all kind of just a a version of FOMO, right? Because when you when you believe long-term in an asset, which the crowd clearly does right now,

the the crowd is despite looking neutral sentiment-wise, the fact that they're talking about which level to buy back into should be a giveaway that they're still bullish. They're just kind of

still bullish. They're just kind of trying to be precise about when they can buy and get the best bargains. So,

that's still a version of FOMO from what I've seen, just a a bit of like a uh more disguised FOMO. So when you see the

conversation going, "Oh, I I definitely want to have more Bitcoin, but I'm waiting for X price." Oftentimes that price never dips, right? So, people who

are waiting for 100K or 90K, I'm not saying that can't happen, but if you see a uh a drop followed by a bunch of people

targeting a price to buy back in, it it means that that price often never comes and we get a bounce before that those dip buys were planned and the

retailers are left kicking themselves.

The same works on the opposite end of the spectrum where a lot of people are like, "Oh, well, I'll I'll sell most of my Bitcoin once we hit 200K Bitcoin and,

you know, then we hit 123K and start to retrace and then maybe there's some panic selling here because they're the price didn't have a straight shot all the way to 200K like people were hoping.

It's an extreme example, but you get the idea. There's a lot of people all the

idea. There's a lot of people all the time who are getting a bit greedy with their target prices that never end up coming and then

they start making irrational decisions to make up for it as we see interesting volatility along the way.

Funding rates I wanted to mention as well. Um

well. Um whatever's causing this block Oh, it looks like this is Binance.

That's interesting.

Oh, so yeah. So it does look like the funding rate is a little on the higher side for Bitcoin. Let me zoom it out a little so we can get a better sample.

Okay. So yeah, it's it's been fairly neutral. There's not as many ticks down

neutral. There's not as many ticks down that would indicate people are trying to short here. The shorts would be

short here. The shorts would be fantastic. The last time we saw a ton of

fantastic. The last time we saw a ton of shorting was late April when people were really in denial about Bitcoin surge

after the tariff um situation and and a lot of the war and conflicts around the world were scaring a lot of people. Um,

so they shorted, those shorts got liquidated and we blasted off to the 112KI, came back down here, and then in early June, people started shorting again. A

little more shorting right at the bottom, which was when the US and Andy Ron had the uh air strike exchanges, and then we've blasted off to another all-time high. So, we'd really love to

all-time high. So, we'd really love to see more shorting, but right now people are just staying very flat. um it looked high for a moment, but now that I've

zoomed out, you can see these longs back in late 2024 were the real longs that we would be worried about. Uh cuz they would indicate that we're getting a bit

topish. The shorts indicate we're

topish. The shorts indicate we're getting uh bottomish because shorts will liquidate and allow prices to bounce and really surge with some rocket fuel

behind them.

Total amount of holders just for mentioning uh currently sitting at about 55.87 million wallets. Uh in terms of non-MPY

million wallets. Uh in terms of non-MPY wallets out there um we peaked on July 30th with 55.89 million.

Moving over to regular onchain metrics.

So, we can see the transaction volume is starting to trail down a little bit. It

peaked here in mid July right as the all-time high hit. Um, and it's kind of back to that normal range. Now,

network activity. Let's make this way less noisy for a moment here. I'm just

going to put these as 7-day bars instead of one.

So yeah, we saw this huge circulation spike around the all-time high, but daily active addresses and network growth are mostly staying normal

throughout the past month. Um, utility

is overall declining. Ignore this

obviously because this is a uh recurring or an unprocessed day that is not complete yet. But the trend really going

complete yet. But the trend really going back to the beginning of June has been some slight decline on the network. Uh

not in in any sort of danger of being like you know making a year low or something but utility is driving drying up a tiny

bit on crypto's top asset at the moment and it's worth keeping an eye on in case it continues to drop. Now MVRV I also recommend watching. We did recently see

recommend watching. We did recently see the 30-day average returns for Bitcoin wallets drop down to about -1.6% while the 365day MVRV is at about plus

18.7%.

So shortterm there's a small opportunity to potentially see a bounce here. Um but

negative 1.5% really is not much in either direction. I'm still a bit

either direction. I'm still a bit concerned that the long-term MVRV is as high as it is. We may want to see this tick below plus 10% before there's some

clear, you know, mathematical confidence that we can start to go on another big run. Most big runs and most true buy the

run. Most big runs and most true buy the dip opportunities happen when both the short-term and long-term MVRVS are in negative range like we saw here um when

the tariff fears were at their peak in early April uh and even here in early March when we had that big dip and then going back all the way to last

August when we were in the good old days below 50K. Okay,

below 50K. Okay, whale transactions. Yeah, you can see

whale transactions. Yeah, you can see the big one on July 24th followed by some decline. So, these were probably

some decline. So, these were probably some profit takes going on based on the small decline in collective holdings from 10 to 10k wallets that we just looked at.

Also wanted to point out the mean dollar invested age. uh it is on the kind of

invested age. uh it is on the kind of decline side which is a good thing indicating a lot of dormant tokens are moving back into circulation still. Um,

when we start to rise like this with that mean dollar invested age line, that's a sign that dormant coins are really starting to get stagnant, really

starting to just sit um without a lot of movement. And that causes uh like I

movement. And that causes uh like I said stagnancy uh and and very little upside for crypto to be able to move.

But you can see right when it started to drop down after the tariff pauses kind of became clear in midappril, we go on

this big run as dormant tokens really start to move back into circulation and the average age of investments get younger and younger here.

Supply and exchanges are also staying quite low. It's a good sign overall only

quite low. It's a good sign overall only about 1.22 22 million of Bitcoin supply based on known wallets are sitting on exchanges right now.

Okay, we'll move on to Ethereum next.

Take a look at what's been going on.

Obviously, Ethereum has been very much in the news due to its large surge that's really gone on. I mean, we can look at it in terms of just Ethereum

versus Bitcoin. So, you can see when

versus Bitcoin. So, you can see when Ethereum really started to gain traction and excitement.

So, this red line, yeah, right around mid June, uh, if we just look at Ethereum's ratio versus Bitcoin, it's up about 43% since

mid June. These past sevenish weeks or

mid June. These past sevenish weeks or so, five-ish weeks, excuse me.

So transaction volume kind of similar to Bitcoin. It peaked here in mid July.

Bitcoin. It peaked here in mid July.

This was a couple days after Bitcoin's peak. Um but Ethereum kept on surging

peak. Um but Ethereum kept on surging even after Bitcoin made its all-time high and started to go flat. sale. It

actually hit its top on July 28th, getting nearly to 4,000 for the first time in uh about well the first time in

2025 going back to last December.

And unlike Bitcoin, its onchain metrics, this is interesting. They've been going up and up and up. I mean daily active addresses. Uh this is

addresses. Uh this is uh on July the week of July 23rd until the 30th.

This was the highest we've seen daily active addresses over the past year.

Network growth had its second largest week. Circulation more average. But I

week. Circulation more average. But I

love to see this because you know over one 1 million uh new addresses created in one week for Ethereum. That doesn't

happen too often. And yes, it coincided with a bit of a FOMO top, but if this can maintain itself and we don't just see it drop back down to normal right away just because prices have retraced a

little, that could be a really good sign that Ethereum's network is getting more utility, getting more use and and actual traction and adoption,

which is what on the long-term end helps crypto assets be able to thrive and move up.

MVRV uh 30-day is lagging for some reason. Let's give that a refresh.

reason. Let's give that a refresh.

I'll zoom into just three months.

All right. So, on the 30-day end, um it's not as optimistic as Bitcoin because we're still in the positive range at plus 6 1.5%.

It has come down sign significantly though because it was all the way at about plus 31% at its peak just about 10 days ago. So, sitting at plus 6 and a

days ago. So, sitting at plus 6 and a half% means there is some risk in buying short-term right now. Um the bigger concern is that the long-term MVRV is

sitting at about plus 30.8% which is very high um especially for Bitcoin and Ethereum um which are not nearly as volatile as some of the smaller coins.

It rarely gets above plus 30%. So um I'd be a little cautious of the fact that the average profits are so high for Ethereum over the past year. It means

that long-term we need to at least see a little bit of a flattening out period.

Um or some, you know, maybe some people getting punished when they FOMOed in uh back at its peak a few days ago. But I

would say there's some some pretty big long-term risk right now. Um at least until Ethereum can have a little bit more of a a cool down period.

Interestingly, there is some shorting going on as of today. Uh it looks like yeah, DYDX is part of that. Binance is

the main culprit.

Yeah, let's look at just Binance for a moment here.

Yeah, this is actually pretty significant. This is the biggest short

significant. This is the biggest short spike for Ethereum since June 20th. Um, and obviously these

June 20th. Um, and obviously these shorts ended up coinciding with a bottom. Obviously, it was very

bottom. Obviously, it was very news-driven at the time related to the um, US and Iran air strikes they exchanged. But this this is showing that

exchanged. But this this is showing that maybe people are despite average returns being very high.

The people on exchanges that are opening some of these perpetual contract funding um positions, they are shorting with the expectation that this drop is just the

beginning. And obviously when there's a

beginning. And obviously when there's a tremendous amount of shorts and funding rates are always prone to getting liquidated in either direction, this could allow for a bigger bounce than

usual for whenever the next mild bounce is planned or not planned, but um will inevitably occur. So we're we're rooting

inevitably occur. So we're we're rooting for these shorts to continue because that's just going to add rocket fuel to any rebound we see.

Whale transactions, they're definitely declining. Not too big of a deal either

declining. Not too big of a deal either way. It just means key stakeholders

way. It just means key stakeholders after all the madness are uh taking a little more of a breather. It's still

we're seeing plenty of healthy whale moves on a daily basis though. It's not

nearly as low as what we saw at the beginning of July.

Also wanted to point out the wallets holding between 10,000 to 100,000 Ethereum which is a key tier in terms of smart money. They've really been

smart money. They've really been accumulating up a storm the past three weeks or so, adding about almost 1% of

the entire supply, uh, owning about 5 1.5% more than they were holding uh, just 3 weeks ago from an absolute perspective.

They've added they've added about 1.64 million Ethereum, which is a 6.2% rise. That's

massive. So, this tier, um, for whatever reason, they're they're not holding back. They're accumulating any coins

back. They're accumulating any coins they can, and it's been that way for a little over 3 weeks now.

Just like Bitcoin, by the way, the mean dollar invested age line is moving down.

So, plenty of dormant coins moving back into circulation right now. Great sign.

Supply and exchanges moving down, also a good sign. less risk of a sell-off as

good sign. less risk of a sell-off as long as supply exchanges continues to stay down. You can see social dominance

stay down. You can see social dominance also peaking about 10 11 days ago and it's starting to come back down to earth now. Um I would expect it probably will

now. Um I would expect it probably will get back to average unless Ethereum suddenly makes a big bounce and starts

testing that $4,000 coveted market value once again.

Also, Ethereum has the most total amount of non-MPT wallets of any asset in crypto. They've now hit a little over

crypto. They've now hit a little over 153 and a half million uh wallets where the the numbers just get more and more

staggering every time I check this.

All right, let's go into some XRP analysis now.

So XRP's transaction volume really peaked up here on July 18th, kind of similar to what we saw with Ethereum a

few days after Bitcoin's uh run and XRP just went on this massive run itself getting all the way uh to about 364 or

so on July 21st and it has retraced somewhat hard. Um well, it's down 14%

somewhat hard. Um well, it's down 14% against the price of Bitcoin or 16% I should say and it's down about 15%

overall. Um so transaction volume is

overall. Um so transaction volume is kind of following suit right now. If we

look at network growth, sort of similar to what we see with Ethereum, this kind of happened a week earlier, whereas Ethereum's biggest week was right around here. Let's zoom out to see just how

here. Let's zoom out to see just how historic that jump was. really not that much. We've seen bigger network growth

much. We've seen bigger network growth here in mid January, though this was the biggest spike in about six months.

Circulation coming back down. Active

addresses never really was that special in the first place, even on this big rally.

And this was a big rally, by the way, from June 21st up until that all-time high. That was about a plus 77% rise in

high. That was about a plus 77% rise in price. But utility doesn't look like

price. But utility doesn't look like it's doing anything too special. Um, I'd

be more excited about Ethereum's utility if you value those onchain metrics very strongly. And then check out how crazy

strongly. And then check out how crazy the MVRV has been for XRP. So, at its peak, the long-term MVRV got all the way above 70%.

Which was a clear sign that we were getting very toppy. um the 30-day, even the short term being at plus 36% was a massive red flag that we need to cool

down a bit. And yeah, even though we haven't retraced that entire rally, and hopefully we never do, we're already starting to see the 30-day MVRV get back

to neutral. It actually did get negative

to neutral. It actually did get negative and now it's at plus one and a half%.

And uh the 365 day MVRV while still very high, it's not at plus 70 anymore. It's

at plus 39. So

a little better. And hopefully we can start to see the average wallets, you know, get below perhaps plus 15%, which then you're starting to get into some

good buy signals. Once again, this doesn't mean we can't go on a little bit of a bounce once again, but the risk is there. the higher these MVRVS are. And

there. the higher these MVRVS are. And

even though short-term is fine, long-term is still pretty dicey right now.

Funding rate, nothing special here. More

like Bitcoin. It's just sitting in neutral. So, Ethereum is the big story

neutral. So, Ethereum is the big story because we're actually seeing some shorts. By the way, we did see

shorts. By the way, we did see especially in in Q1 going into Q2 here, tons of shorts for XRP,

a lot of people not believing. And you

can see right when we saw the the really aggressive shorts happening at peak terafir time, that's when we immediately saw the bounce and all these shorts

started to get punished and we just have not seen nearly the amount of shorts ever since. So, it's kind of like they

ever since. So, it's kind of like they learned their lesson and don't want to bet against XRP again for the time being.

Also, take a look at how active the XRP whales were um right as XRP was peaking.

Not a coincidence. They were absolutely taking profit here. Um over a thousand1 million plus transactions on XRP

happened on July 17th, just a couple days before that big top. And now

they've kind of come back down waiting for the next opportunity. So XRP

especially like their whales come alive during times of volatility and there is a lot more volatility for XRP compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. So you'll see

much more extreme whale transaction spikes as a result.

And let's check to see if there's some anomalies with the key tiers for XRP.

Let's just go to a million or more.

So from an absolute perspective, they're constantly going up.

So that isn't very good alpha. But if we can see from a percent perspective, that can help a little better. Yeah, they're

mostly staying pretty flat. So wallets

with a million or more XRP hold just under 3/4 of the supply. They almost got to 75% here at the end of December, but

they're mostly staying pretty neutral.

uh sitting at about 73.7% and holding about 47.2 billion XRP right now.

And just like Bitcoin and Ethereum, bit uh uh the mean dollar invested age is still moving down u for XRP. So I like that sign from a long-term perspective.

Uh, I'd love if key stakeholders were showing a little more accumulation right now, but I'd like to see how many dormant tokens are really being moved at the moment. Uh, if we go back

the moment. Uh, if we go back historically, let's just go four years.

Yeah. I mean, especially when we were seeing a massive drop here in the mean dollar invested age going from god 1166

days all the way down to well, let's just go here to the peak of the rally 721. So yeah, that was a 38% drop in the

721. So yeah, that was a 38% drop in the mean dollar invested age line and that resulted in us getting all the way up above $3 at that point. Then we see this big retrace. But even during the

big retrace. But even during the retrace, we've seen the mean dollar invested age line continuing to go down.

I like this sign a lot. Um, we're

actually at its youngest point right now that we've seen in the past four years. We'd have to go back to

Gez. Uh, it looks like it's kind of

Gez. Uh, it looks like it's kind of matching what we saw in May of 2021.

very close to being lower than that. Uh

this isn't really a support and resistance type of analysis though. It

doesn't matter if it goes below this.

But generally the direction of the mean dollar invested age is what's most important and it's continuing to drop overall um which is just going to continue to enable a lot of these huge

rallies that we're seeing. So, I like the sign uh that dormant XRP wallets are getting rid of their coins or at least moving them, which is causing a lot of

coins to get back into circulation and a lot of these rallies to be enabled.

Also, notice these massive realized profit spikes here. If if uh Max and Balance was here, he would be talking a little bit about how this often can

perpetuate further bull rallies. Um, and

this was just a huge instance of both retail and institutionals trying to take profit around the same time. Um, if we see these kinds of realized profits

continue to stack up when prices rise, it's just going to perpetuate further rallies. So, I like the sign of this

rallies. So, I like the sign of this overall. Let's just see how far of a

overall. Let's just see how far of a retrace this ends up being. Um,

obviously $3 is going to be a big support level for a lot of people. So if

and when it drops below $3, you'll see polarization all over the place.

Retailers might start to panic sell.

Institutionals might start to really buy the dip. And that's a good sign that we

the dip. And that's a good sign that we bounce right back up on the backs of, you know, good news from things like network realized profit and of course

the mean dollar invested age line continuing to move down like this.

All right, just a few other topics now that we've gone through the top three non-stable coins out there. Um,

so in terms of trending words, lots of noise. Yeah, haha, mate are the top

noise. Yeah, haha, mate are the top three.

August, Figma, uh, I know Figma has a big story right now because the company had a recent IPO. Coincidentally,

Sentiment uses Figma for our art when we post on social media. So, you know, things like this that I posted, um, that's all using Figma. Uh, this was a

Figma post. The vast majority of of

Figma post. The vast majority of of these posts that you see, especially when they have a header, that's all created with Figma. So, just wanted to shout them out.

Um, we can also see on the trending stories, which is now live, by the way, Figma's market surge is number one. Uh,

and I I didn't actually mention the news, but the stock surged over 230% on its first day, reflecting strong investor demand and market excitement.

Um, Adobee's failed $20 billion acquisition deal and $1 billion breakup fee add to the narrative of Figma's independent success.

So happy for them. of August trading open. Bitcoin closed July with an 8.1%

open. Bitcoin closed July with an 8.1% gain uh with the White House and Trump supporting banning Congress from trading stocks, which is interesting to see.

That should be big news for the uh stock market if that starts to gain some traction. I know she's been uh Trump's

traction. I know she's been uh Trump's been talking about Pelosi a lot uh and some other people who have made significant gains over the previous

years and decades through their uh legal insider trading.

Also, Coinbase is expanding its platform to include tokenized stocks and prediction markets for US users, aiming to become an all-in-one onchain

exchange. Um the SEC is aiming to

exchange. Um the SEC is aiming to modernize securities rules and move US financial markets on chain. Um they

emphasize that most crypto assets are not securities signaling a clear regulatory framework. That is good news,

regulatory framework. That is good news, right? because we've seen on and on on

right? because we've seen on and on on again offag again debates about crypto in general certain coins being securities and it creates all of this

uncertainty over what can and can't be treated that way especially here in the US so with more clarity either way that's going to be

good for crypto also Micro Strategy shout out to them they they really did well on quarter 2

earnings with a 46,000 % EPS beat. Um,

of course, Michael Sailor's targeting an MNAV of 4.0 implying a 1,23 Micro Strategy price, which is uh somewhere around double where they are

right now.

Um, so yeah, Micro Strategy is increasingly in the news these days because they are accumulating so many Bitcoin. uh it seems like every week as

Bitcoin. uh it seems like every week as of late.

Trump tariffs, as I mentioned, the Canadian jump from 25% to 35%. Also

criticizing Jerome Powell predictably after Jerome Powell and the Fed kept the interest rates the same. You'll continue

to see their ongoing battle. I saw a post yesterday where Trump implied that he knows that September is going to lead

to an interest rate uh drop, but we, you know, we don't know how confirmed that is. Uh no matter what your perspective

is. Uh no matter what your perspective of Trump is, uh we've seen some things come to fruition when he says so, some things not. So, we'll see how that ends

things not. So, we'll see how that ends up going. Obviously, a lot of that is

up going. Obviously, a lot of that is dictated by how the S&P 500 and crypto look in a couple months, too.

Um, whales buying USDC. This is big news as well. Circles launching the native

as well. Circles launching the native USDC on Hyperlid enabling faster, cheaper, and bridge-free stable coin transfers. Whale activity is strong

transfers. Whale activity is strong across meme tokens. Um, growing interest in speculative momentum for assets like Jugs and Chill House. institutional

players continuing accumulating Ethereum while while Bitcoin sees notable outflows. Um so yes, there has been a

outflows. Um so yes, there has been a narrative of whales moving their co uh holdings from Bitcoin to Ethereum. I think that's a

bit overstated. Um it usually isn't as

bit overstated. Um it usually isn't as clear-cut as all the whales coming together and agreeing to just move from one asset to another. But there has been

a trend of more accumulation on the ETH side than on the BTC side. So that is true.

And I won't go over these other topics, but uh yeah, I just recommend you guys check out the trending stories tab. Um

we update every day, unlike the alpha narratives that updates once a week. If

you want more granular, up-to-date news to see what's driving the markets on a daily basis, start right here with trending stories. It's a really great

trending stories. It's a really great tool that uh I think the Santiment team did an awesome wonderful job of putting together.

All right. Well, I am losing my voice.

Um tends to happen when I do shows by myself, but I never mind it. I just

think we've covered what we needed to cover for this week. Uh I want to thank you all for joining. I know the vast majority of you watch this on replay and uh we just really appreciate your

support as we continue to grow and gain traction with our live shows, with our pre-recorded shows, which I do with Thinking Crypto and some of our other

guests. You'll see more other guests

guests. You'll see more other guests sprinkled in as um the final five months of the year uh continue to commence. And

uh yeah, just shout out to the Santiment team for continuing to upkeep our wonderful platform and shout out to all of you for being members. Um don't

forget if you want to sign up, go to the pricing page, you can sign up for free and get two weeks to just trial the platform. If you don't like it, you pay

platform. If you don't like it, you pay nothing. Um, but if you do like it, you

nothing. Um, but if you do like it, you can use the code TWWIC, which stands for this week in crypto, and you get 25% off

of however many months or years you decide to sign up for. Uh, and you can continue to see what others in crypto can. So, I'll leave it there. Thank you

can. So, I'll leave it there. Thank you

all, folks. Have a wonderful week, uh, or weekend, I should say, and happy August. Talk to you'all soon.

August. Talk to you'all soon.