OCTA: Crypto Cycle update, BTC=ENERGY, AI, Future Jobs, Macro CHAOS! #Bitcoin🤯🔥

Hello everybody. It's Tuesday. We are

live and it's been a bit of a roller coaster, but we didn't lose faith. We

didn't swap out the bull yet for the bear. And uh there's a a lot of a lot of

bear. And uh there's a a lot of a lot of so much to tell. In fact, I could have put together a 100 slides today for this because there's so much news, but I kept it at 55. So, let's try to get through

55 pieces of news in 25 minutes. Be

ready. Thank you, Tindy, Tesla, Shan D, K8, everybody else for being here. Let's

go. I hope everything's working. Yeah,

let's just assume it is. So, this one's about uh energy floor support, macro, money, AI, future of jobs, ton more. Let's get into it. Bitcoin's

ton more. Let's get into it. Bitcoin's

balance engine, not financial advice.

And a big thank you to everybody on Patreon, too. This is from uh

Patreon, too. This is from uh Chevy Deliel. I like that name. His

Chevy Deliel. I like that name. His

Patreon is worth it. Six months in now.

Wish I joined earlier. Yeah, it's been it's been an interesting six months, but it's been a great five years. Anyway,

let's get into the ugly news first.

First of all, Open AAI chatbt goes code red. We'll start with the ugly news. And

red. We'll start with the ugly news. And

uh as you know, I've been calling OpenAI a house of cards for a long time.

Wednesday sit behind Grock from XAI, Elon Musk, and then I sit behind Gemini.

And it's just this guy says some weird stuff. But I'm not the only one to know

stuff. But I'm not the only one to know that, too. In fact, Jack Mers calls Sam

that, too. In fact, Jack Mers calls Sam Alman Sam Bankman freed. We all know what that means. That's not a good not a good look, my friends. Anyway, let's not

waste any more time on that ugly news.

Let's talk about the bad news. Fear and

greed is still below 25. Extreme fear.

It's at 23 right now. Little higher for stocks and all season indicator is back to the Bitcoin side down at about 41 and going pretty fast because I want to get

to the real meaty stuff in a minute.

Narratives privacy died. That was

shortlived. Um I hope nobody bought Zcash at the top at 750, but it's uh falling off a cliff right now. It's down

about 50% from the all-time highs and it was it was Israel hype and Zcash were the two big alt winners of 2025 but you

know everything mean reverts as we know but social came back no idea what chains were in social but either way they are positive and everything else is negative

that's why it's in the bad news category another piece of bad news but it's actually good news shout out to Crypto Rover if you look here he put together this really cool chart part of the little red boxes at the bottom. That's

when the PMI, the manufacturing index, business cycle, uh it's all in contraction, which means it's under the zero line. But when it

goes positive, Bitcoin goes positive.

Now, the reason this is in the ugly news because it's bad for manufacturing, but we know the AI data center buildout is huge and that should bring about a

PMI pump. That's why we talk about it.

PMI pump. That's why we talk about it.

And Bitcoin typically sees its biggest rallies once the business cycle returns to expansion. And there's many reasons

to expansion. And there's many reasons why that's going to happen. Things like

rate cuts, things like new tax laws, things like QE, new money printing, which we'll talk about too, should pump it all. So, literally, despite what

it all. So, literally, despite what we've been through, that is the bad and the ugly news for today. Let's get into the good news. Now,

bizarro numbers. Bizarre numbers. You

can't make this stuff up. November was

down 17.4%. And so far, December is up 1.74%.

That's a 10x delta. And if you don't believe me, I zoomed into the numbers here. November down 17.4. December up

here. November down 17.4. December up

1.74.

And a lot of people sometimes when we go back and look at this, it's like, oh, well, November's red, sometimes December's red. Yeah, but the sample

December's red. Yeah, but the sample size isn't really enough. We've only had a couple of cases. We had a red December in 2011 that turned into a pos a red

November turned into a positive December. We had red November in 2019

December. We had red November in 2019 2018. They also were red in December.

2018. They also were red in December.

And we had a red December in 2020 red November in 2022 and that turned into a slightly red December. But again, this time is different because we didn't have

the confluence of things like QE starting again, like rate cuts, all that. And I can't underestimate how big

that. And I can't underestimate how big that is. We'll talk about liquidity in a

that is. We'll talk about liquidity in a minute, too. Crypto over the last seven

minute, too. Crypto over the last seven days against Bitcoin, um, ETH apparently beat Bitcoin. Litecoin didn't and others

beat Bitcoin. Litecoin didn't and others didn't. But in terms of uh the mix, it

didn't. But in terms of uh the mix, it was a weird week because something shot up and something shot down. In fact,

there must be a miscalculation there on this chart because compared to Bitcoin, ETH beat it by 8.22%. I don't think that's correct, but this is correct. Uh,

ETH is up 8.22% for the week. Bitcoin is up 3.15% for the week. And it's incredible sometimes

the week. And it's incredible sometimes when we have a violent dip in Bitcoin like we did on Sunday and Monday morning, people lost their minds.

But we'll get to the V-shaped recovery.

That's been crazy. And this puts it all in perspective. That's why I like

in perspective. That's why I like looking back to the week before and how far we've come. And uh everything else pretty much green except for Litecoin,

Doge, and some other random names. And

even Cardano is dark green, but that's still under 2021 prices. So if you held for 5 years, good luck to you. Now,

let's look at money flows. Very

important as well. The ETFs

did book some positive numbers up $1.07 billion and we had four bad weeks, four negative weeks in a row. And as I said last week, it's rare you have five. In fact, we've

never had five negative weeks. And uh a lot of people say that this was helped by, you know, an imminent US rate cut.

Maybe also cheap prices because crypto was cheap. Maybe Treadfire said, "Whoa,

was cheap. Maybe Treadfire said, "Whoa, very cheap. I got to buy some. Now, this

very cheap. I got to buy some. Now, this

is a bit of the crazy news that sometimes is illogical. And we still have a lot of illogical stuff happening in the markets, but you can see here

Bitcoin pulled in 461 million. That's

good. ETH 309 million. Good. Uh XR still on a little positive amount for 4 and a.5 million, which is nothing. And XRP

a.5 million, which is nothing. And XRP

289 million. XRP nearly pulled in the same amount as Ethereum, which is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.

ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.

That's the largest ever weekly inflow into this asset in its history.

Crazy. Cardano saw outflows of 19.3 million. People may be giving up the

million. People may be giving up the ghost, but this is so bizarre. And I do want to share one chart really to show you how crazy this is. This is the market cap per user. I can also show you

the market cap per transaction. It's

even more extreme. But the market cap for XRP per user is 8,600 times higher than that of Salana. That in my opinion

is irrational. ETH is about $600,000,

is irrational. ETH is about $600,000, which is about 600 times higher than [clears throat] Salana. So just, you know, there's many ways to measure crypto. Market cap per transaction,

crypto. Market cap per transaction, market cap per user, market cap per volume, market cap per volume [snorts] per stable coin,

balance, you name it. everything else.

It's wildly illogical. Who the hell is buying XRP? I have no idea. Let's look

buying XRP? I have no idea. Let's look

at the ETF flows, too. Little deeper

dive into following the money. I look at these on a weekly basis. We had a tiny tiny bit of green so far for the week for Bitcoin, which is good. We had a tiny tiny bit of red for the week, but

it was positive last week. And this is for the US ETFs. These numbers above here includes the global ETFs, okay?

Like Sweden and Brazil and other things.

So, it's important to remember that. And

then the Salana ETF also slightly red like the Ethereum one. But I want to take a minute and talk about what has happened since the last bare market. And

Glass Note had these pretty cool charts and shout out to Sanjay as well who got them. Let's talk about dominance. You

them. Let's talk about dominance. You

talk about dominance, but a lot of this data tells an interesting picture. We

saw Bitcoin dominance in the bottom of the bare market was 38.7%.

And now it's 58.3%.

It has swung up violently and a lot of that has to do with the DATs and the ETFs. Stable coin dominance went from

ETFs. Stable coin dominance went from 17.3% to 8.3%.

That's actually fallen. Oldcoin

dominance 27% to 21.3%.

So altcoins have not done well. Either

has Ethereum. Ethereum 17.1% down to 12%. So a lot of the dominance has gone

12%. So a lot of the dominance has gone to Bitcoin and away from everything else. So Bitcoin has been the winner

else. So Bitcoin has been the winner since the bottom of the bear.

Another cool view. And there are people people still, you know, I guess maybe there's people that buy tops, there's people that buy bottoms. I always stress try be a bottom fisher because it's much

better for your return on investment.

But if you bought at the bottom of the bear, you were up today 500% on Bitcoin.

Not bad despite what happened, that's going back to November December 2022.

Now, what's really interesting about this, at least from my perspective, if you had an average equal waiting bag size of old coins or Ethereum, your

return was the same. But only a few old coins have done well. A lot of the old, what I call zombie chains have just been annihilated. And you see you see things

annihilated. And you see you see things like Cardano less than it was in the last bull market of 2021. It's lower

today. Um, and it it's crazy to see, but that is interesting. Again, you got to excise out the winners here, but to see the ETH performance, the old coin performance after how bad the old coins

have been, that's pretty interesting.

Now, another cool chart is this. And it

proves that this cycle is very unlike others. And I'll say it for theundth

others. And I'll say it for theundth 50th time. This time is different in

50th time. This time is different in every single perspective. Let me show you this cool chart from Glass Node. And

they talk about how unlike prior cycles, this is where cap in prior cycles, capital typically rotated out of Bitcoin into ETH and then further at the risk

curve into altcoins after ETH. But this

cycle, nope, not at all. Bitcoin had

multiple waves of capital inflow, you know, pulling in 40 billion to 190 billion per month, whereas Ethereum only had one modest rotation alongside

Bitcoin, and that was in Q3 2025.

Shout out to Tom Lee. Again, follow the money. This proves why Bitcoin dominance

money. This proves why Bitcoin dominance is higher because it's pulling in more money. Follow the money. It's not hard,

money. Follow the money. It's not hard, folks. And that is crazy. Uh the ETH net

folks. And that is crazy. Uh the ETH net cap blue, you can see that little pump there happened after Tom Lee started Bitmain. The rest of the time nothing

Bitmain. The rest of the time nothing really happened and of course Bitcoin pulled in the lion share. Stable coins

as well um has grown a little bit and that is a very cool chart to look at.

Now where did I go next? Let's talk

about this. This is the V4 vendetta I tweeted earlier this morning. H the

V-shaped recovery. Sunday we were at 91K. 48 hours later we were at 91K. But

91K. 48 hours later we were at 91K. But

the point is we fell to 83,000.

That $8,000 tankage that happened Sunday night, Monday, uh scared a lot of people, but the recovery caught a lot of people offguard. And there's nearly half

people offguard. And there's nearly half a billion dollars of liquidations out there. People on the short side thinking

there. People on the short side thinking we were going to 80k. Well, that didn't happen. But why is Bitcoin going up?

happen. But why is Bitcoin going up?

Well, one of the reasons, and in full [clears throat] disclosure, I used to mock Vanguard for being vanguarded for all these years. Well, Vanguarded no

more, they have just today opened up their retirement accounts and everything else for customers to Bitcoin ETFs. So,

they are vanguarded no more. And

remember, they have about 11 trillion in assets under management. I think Black Rockck is about 14 trillion. Fidelity is

about seven. Uh Schwab eight. Like these

four big players are like the four horsemen of whatever the apocalypse.

They control 30 plus trillion dollars.

And when they give customers access to something, the result is quite explosive. Let's see. Like you might

explosive. Let's see. Like you might think, oh, who's using Vanguard? Well,

people that are stuck in there from places where they work, where their retirement accounts are and things like that or or even after they leave their job, they still keep the same account just for simplicity. Well, guess what

happened in the first 30 minutes?

There was one billion dollar of trading volume in IBIT, which is probably the most traded Bitcoin ETF exposure out there. Again, billion bucks volume in 30

there. Again, billion bucks volume in 30 minutes, and that is pretty huge. Also,

Bitcoin went up maybe 6% too. So, is

this all driven by spot ETF? No, I don't think so. There's other players at hand

think so. There's other players at hand here, but it just shows you this whole thing is still very, very manipulated and making the rounds. Elon was talking

uh this week about over the weekend. He

did an interview and he talked about how the US is heading towards a massive debt crisis. We're heading to 40 trillion in

crisis. We're heading to 40 trillion in debt. And this will he believes this

debt. And this will he believes this will fuel a major Bitcoin boom.

One of the things he said was and this was he's probably not looking at the the price and how much it fell on Sunday and everything else. I think he did the

everything else. I think he did the interview on Sunday. But uh what is interesting is he spoke about you know rate cuts coming and Musk also said

money will disappear as a concept because of the age of abundance and then he said energy is the only real form of money and that bitcoin is energy which

is great which takes me to the big story today. Let's try and look at this

today. Let's try and look at this bitcoin is energy stuff. This is the Bitcoin energy oscillator. Shout out to Bitcoin long too from AO. But this is

cool. And his chart basically says each

cool. And his chart basically says each time Bitcoin's energy oscillator bounced off the lowest levels, a Bitcoin bull run followed. And it's currently

run followed. And it's currently bouncing at those levels again. Last

time we had bounces at these levels, that was 2012, 2015, 2020, and now here. In fact, if you look

at what has happened since 2022, we've been hovering around here. We

haven't actually had a bounce. Not

saying we are going to bounce, but we're definitely overdue for a bounce. Now, I always like to try and

bounce. Now, I always like to try and find confluence across different indicators, which is kind of this one's kind of related as well. This is

Bitcoin's energy floor price.

And the short note is you got a production cost of electricity on average across all the Bitcoin miners.

And to mine one Bitcoin, you have to spend about $71,000 in electricity.

So if you're home mining, expect to have a lot of electricity charges if you hope to mine more Bitcoin. Anyway, 71 grand.

It's interesting to think about. But why

we care is because Bitcoin's energy floor is the floor of Bitcoin price historically. Very rarely does it ever

historically. Very rarely does it ever breach this level. And of course, the protocol will adjust to miners if the miners unplug or if electricity is too expensive or the hash rate goes too

high. The system adjusts itself. But we

high. The system adjusts itself. But we

got pretty close to that electricity price when we fell to 80K a few weeks ago and 83k the other day. Now, what's

also interesting for me because I'm thinking beyond the chart, we all know globally electricity is getting more expensive because of AI and because of other reasons, people blowing up their

nuclear stations and stuff like that, but we won't get into that at all right now. But if AI is going to push

now. But if AI is going to push electricity prices up, which it will, to me that means theoretically it'll push

up the Bitcoin floor price. And

[laughter] and the funny part of this story that makes me laugh is like nobody wants to pay more in electricity, but if you got Bitcoin bags, it's a

hedge because your Bitcoin will go up.

Get it? Floor price of Bitcoin goes up if electricity goes up. So, you win either way. I hope people enjoy that.

either way. I hope people enjoy that.

I'm probably the only crazy person who sees that. But anyway, I thought that

sees that. But anyway, I thought that was interesting. And in other news too,

was interesting. And in other news too, I went into Coin Glass today because I last week I did share stuff about the Bitcoin balance and exchanges that dropped about a huge amount of Bitcoin.

I think it was 230,000 Bitcoin left in a week. And I wanted to chase up on that

week. And I wanted to chase up on that and see if we're still current. So I

look at the charts on Glass Node. I look

at the charts on Coin Glass. And I look at the charts on Cryptoquant. And they

all pretty much say the same thing. And

now Bitcoin balance on exchanges just hit an all-time low. It's about $2.05 million. And when you put that in

million. And when you put that in perspective and you imagine there are 20 million Bitcoin, which are of course there's a lot less, but just imagine 20 million. 2 million Bitcoin is 10% of

million. 2 million Bitcoin is 10% of Bitcoin supply that's on exchanges right now. But also remember, even though it's

now. But also remember, even though it's on an exchange, it doesn't mean it's for sale. A lot of people don't trust self

sale. A lot of people don't trust self custody like myself.

And you know, I don't keep stuff in exchanges, but other things. But the

point is a lot of people do and that doesn't mean it's for sale, at least not the current price. So again, more goodness, but

price. So again, more goodness, but let's see what else we can find. Uh,

this gets into the liquidity section and how Bitcoin sniffs out liquidity ahead of time. This is from CryptoQuant

of time. This is from CryptoQuant from Axel and he looks at the impulse 7-day average Zcore and this metric

captures the money flows absorption of outflows, inflows, etc. And given the crazy week we just had, it has gone

slightly positive and that's good. This

means there is an impulse of liquidity into Bitcoin across ETF holdings and money flows and everything else. And

this also is probably what took us up to 92K today after that big dip. It's a

whole whole many whole you know many many items have taken us kind of higher which is good. Another thing that actually happened sniffing at liquidity the Fed Reserve the other night last

night the night before last night I think I reported on this in Patreon they pumped 13.5 billion into the US banking system through the overnight repos and that's the second largest injection

since co co I hope I can say that word now without being silenced and surpasses even the peak of the dot bubble and that's the weird sideways blue line on the right hand

There's normally gaps between funding the reverse repo. There was a big pump in there um at the end of October 2025 and then we see the one we just got

right now. Again, big pump and expect

right now. Again, big pump and expect more of this.

What's bizarre is the Fed said QT quantitative tightening would end December 1st. Literally midnight on

December 1st. Literally midnight on December 1st that happened. It's like,

"Okay, there probably a whole bunch of people with their little hands on the buttons ready to say, okay, pump it, pump it, fire up those money printers."

It's just crazy how it happened. Anyhow,

another cool indicator that is also a bullish sign. H this is from Mags, the

bullish sign. H this is from Mags, the scalping pro. And this at the bottom

scalping pro. And this at the bottom part of the chart is Bitcoin dominance.

No, sorry, Tether dominance. When Tether

dominance hits 7%.

That's typically when Bitcoin bottoms. And guess what? The dominance hit 7% yesterday. And that is the orange little

yesterday. And that is the orange little box there. Every time that dominance

box there. Every time that dominance hits that orange box, Bitcoin reverses and pumps. It's that simple. We'll see.

and pumps. It's that simple. We'll see.

This pattern has existed now since 2020.

Let me get the exact time. Since 2023.

So yeah, will it continue? We think so.

So again, pulling in all of these different data points all tell a very very good bullish picture

but not all is good. So this is the top 50 over the last 30 days. Black is in the middle which is Bitcoin down 16.8%.

It's been an ugly November. So much for Moonvember. Now couple of other things

Moonvember. Now couple of other things that have happened. One quant a blast from the past. I remember trading that five years ago. Monero doing well.

Casper, another weird chain. Anyway,

a lot of crap. But then all the stuff on the right getting destroyed.

Aptos down 40%. M whatever that is.

Don't know to the AI thing down 41%.

It's been ugly across the board.

Everybody, nobody made money unless they were all in on quant over the last 30 days. But again, every dog has its day

days. But again, every dog has its day as I say for years. Let's talk about Apptos because that triggered some interest. Why is it tanking so much?

interest. Why is it tanking so much?

Well, it's enough because their stable coin business is doing okay. This is the stable coin supply changes over the last 24 hours. Ethereum number one doing 600

24 hours. Ethereum number one doing 600 million bucks. Salana doing about 460

million bucks. Salana doing about 460 million and Aptos did about $310 million of new stable coins.

What's also interesting about this ammonad's on there too number four but what's also interesting is Tron Tron used to be the stable coin leader and they lost nearly 200 million of stable coins but again that fluctuates

dayto-day but it's interesting to look at and the reason I jumped in there is to find out why is apttos so weak anyhow moving on uh I also discussed briefly a

week or so ago that koshi flipped poly market they raised a ton of money I can't remember half a billion dollars last week with Sequoia and a couple of Silicon Valley VCs and

they are off to the races but even bigger than that Khi is not only beating Poly Market but guess what Khi just moved over to Salana soon or now I

haven't checked yet because it'd be fun to bet on stuff but uh Khi a year ago I think was at 4% market share poly market was 96% now they have nearly 70% market

share and some people called the Kouchi super cycle and humans are DGens and they love gambling on everything but Kouchi not only has Eclipse poly market but it's growing much faster and they

move to Salana which will help them screech ahead even further but remember everything will be tokenized on this market and this will be the number one betting market for

everything onchain elections CPI job numbers sports stock prices rate cuts you name it all tradable as

tokens on Salana. Huge win for real usage and real volume. And I need to check as well before I say all roads lead to Salana eventually. Best,

cheapest, fastest is where you need to be. But I need to check if I can use it

be. But I need to check if I can use it myself because we couldn't use Poly Market in the past unless we're offshore. I wonder now that it's on

offshore. I wonder now that it's on chain with Salana, we can use Koshi to bet. That'd be fun. It' be fun. Anywh

bet. That'd be fun. It' be fun. Anywh

who, gambling is bad. Don't forget that.

And speaking of betting, DEX pers are going absolutely berserk, bonkers, wild, whatever you want to say. And this

explosive yet sustained growth reflects a clear structural demand for decentralized trading venues. People

want independency, they want custody, they want transparency, and they want instant onchain execution without sacrificing liquidity or depth. These

new perp dexes, all of them, the Jupiters, the Aers, the Hype, the Drift, they're all making a ton of money. Much

of their prices don't reflect it yet, but watch this space. It's 2026. I do

not expect this thing to sold, slow down. We could we could

down. We could we could get a mini per Dex all season off the back of this action because I don't see it slowing down. Uh, by the way, shout

out to nearly $80 billion in daily volume.

That's a lot for something that's completely decentralized. Let's talk

completely decentralized. Let's talk about stocks for a minute, ladies and gentlemen. Once again, thank you to

gentlemen. Once again, thank you to wonderful mods in the chat and everybody being here. Stocks are mixed the last

being here. Stocks are mixed the last seven days. As you know, we focus on AI

seven days. As you know, we focus on AI here. Nvidia up nearly 4%, Apple 4%,

here. Nvidia up nearly 4%, Apple 4%, Microsoft 3.3%, Google down 3%, but Google has been on a rampage. I still

kicking myself I didn't buy at 187 a few weeks ago. Uh anyway, Amazon 4%. What's

weeks ago. Uh anyway, Amazon 4%. What's

with this 4% today? Meta 4%. My

goodness. Tesla 3.51%. You round that up. That's 4%. It's like everything went

up. That's 4%. It's like everything went up 4%. Crazy. Where's Broadcom down 1%

up 4%. Crazy. Where's Broadcom down 1% at least that broke the trend. So mixed.

But remember cuts are coming which is good for these risk assets. Stock fear

and greed is at 25. Which gone to fear?

If it's a 24, it's extreme fear. So,

that's out of the woods right now. And

remember, stock markets are hitting new all-time highs. A quick look at the S&P

all-time highs. A quick look at the S&P 500 over the last 3 years. And shout out to Sanjay and Coobasi for this one. The

inspiration for this my chart, but if you look at the gainers, uh this is kind of really impressive.

The S&P 500, it's gone up 80% over the last three years. But the reason the three year is the anchor point here is that is the time when ChachiBT launched 3 years ago. Again, AI is the biggest

asteroid to ever hit this planet probably since the dinosaurs if you believe in that type of thing. Anyhow,

you can see here all of this action.

This 80% gainer in the S&P 500 was up 80% was driven by things like Nvidia and others. And the S&P 500 market cap has

others. And the S&P 500 market cap has grown by $ 24 trillion.

that is pulling in adding $22 billion in value every single day for nearly 1100 days.

Crazy to think. And uh

if you look at the dip on that little chart there, that little orange dip, that's a tariff tantrums that and see how bad it was and see how quickly it rebounded. Again, yet another

V-shaped recovery. When the markets are

V-shaped recovery. When the markets are being flooded with money, it'll rise all boats, including indexes. Now, you

probably think, whoa, S&P 500, why don't I just invest in that? Well, in the same time frame, Tesla's up 260% over the

same time frame. So, again, not bad, but and Nvidia probably up even more. Can't

remember the exact number, but it's important to excise the winners and don't play the indexes, but indexes are good if it's all you can get. And Tesla

FSD is ramping violently across Europe.

Shout out to all our European friends watching.

You can see here uh we have France next in the box and this is a media outlet.

Shout out to Soya Meritt as well. But

they were allowed to film everything and they have a huge video coming including the long uncut. But it's mind-blowing both for safety and for the humanity of

the choices.

French media saying it's mind-blowing and it's good for human safety. And we

thought it would be impossible to get FSD approved in Europe because Europe hates well they like regulations and they hate maybe

Elon and AI and stuff. But anyway, it's coming. Spain, Netherlands, Norway,

coming. Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Germany.

Uh wonder when Italy is going to come.

Anyhow, and the Italian [clears throat] roads are a challenge too, worse than the Paris roads. We also have the Tesla semi- ramping in Nevada. Uh these blue boxes are all the equipment that go into

making Tesla semi-truckss. Not sure

exactly where they're maybe seats, windows, all that type of thing. But

these things are going to ramp hopefully to close to 50,000 units by the end of next year. Again, there's

so many tailwinds coming for Tesla in 2026, it's not even funny. And there's

rumors that the whole supply chain is now about to be finally approved for the Optimus Robot 2. And of course, Robotex is going to scale as well. Now, on the subject of AI, this was a cool post as

well made by the CEO of Microsoft called Sacha Nadella. And easy way to remember

Sacha Nadella. And easy way to remember his name is it's close to Nutella. Such

a Nadella. Such a Nutella. Anyway, very

smart guy. uh he had a very interesting piece on the future of work and he called it I think it was macro delegation and micro steering and

instead of doing the work humans will be assigned like a managerial position to manage AI agents and they the humans managing these will manage the

exceptions just like sometimes happens in in real world and my take is you know the good news is humans won't be replaced but they'll be promoted

And they'll go from being doers to directors of AI teams. And humans will should start now focusing their time on

judgment creativity exception management, not routine tasks. And

again, let AI do the grunt work and be there as part of the kind of rubber stamper, approver, exception manager, etc. Whether it be 20% of cases or 5% of cases, but that was a positive note,

too.

But I urge you if you are in this type of realm, start thinking very hard about that future of work, becoming that director instead of the doer. I think

that will be very positive. And speaking

of money, yet again, Fed rate cut is now 89%. And that cut's coming in 7 days.

89%. And that cut's coming in 7 days.

Once we get 80% 2 weeks out, it's in the bag. And then again, that's good for

bag. And then again, that's good for risk assets. The less return people get

risk assets. The less return people get on their fiat, the more they deploy it into risk assets, pumps risk assets. And

if risk assets have to borrow, it makes borrowing cheaper, too. It'll

also completely juice the real estate market. Okay? When rates come down, it

market. Okay? When rates come down, it takes a while for the mortgage rates to respond. When those mortgage rates come

respond. When those mortgage rates come down, it'll enable people to start selling their homes, buying new ones, bigger ones, whatever. And it'll also enable a lot of people to buy property,

maybe for the first time. So, expect

that to jack real estate prices, too.

So, be careful. Now's the time to buy before the rate cuts come. And it's

death season for selling real estate.

It's great best season for buying, as you always hear me say. And speaking of more rate cuts, this is a big policy policy shift happening in the US. And

there's a new guy called Kevin Hassid who is the lead favorite. 72% odds again from Kelshi. I don't know how many times

from Kelshi. I don't know how many times I mentioned Kelchi today, but that's where all the betting happens. If you

want to bet, uh, that's I think $4 and a half million dollars of volume on this.

If you want to bet on who the next Fed chair is, well, it looks like Hasset's going to win. And why do we care? Well,

this guy, he loves low interest rates.

He understands the deficit. He knows he needs to make money cheap. He needs to drive more liquidity and then risk assets will go up and Bitcoin will go up etc.

We're seeing two things happen that we saw at the same time during C19 back in March April 2020. Rate cuts and quantitative easing. Today we just

quantitative easing. Today we just started quantitative easing and more rate cuts. The third one this year is

rate cuts. The third one this year is coming in 9 days or is it 7 days? 7

days. It's coming even sooner than I expected. Also speaking more about money

expected. Also speaking more about money because it's a money channel and thanks to Bitcoin long as well. This is um the amount of tariffs collected. Net customs

duties now hit nearly 32 billion in October, a new all-time high. And that's

over four times what it was a year ago.

And at this pace, annual tariff revenue would exceed 300 billion for the first time. And there's also talk for the US

time. And there's also talk for the US administration that if the tariffs continue to be good, maybe it could replace taxes or at least

reduce them. We shall see. and Iran

reduce them. We shall see. and Iran

strikes gold. Hope people don't think this is political, but apparently we're finding people are finding gold all over the planet. Uh I think Asia,

the planet. Uh I think Asia, Africa, now in Iran, parts of South America, and they apparently have found about 61 million tons. Of course, that's

not 61 million tons of gold, but of course, that has to be pulled out. But the point is they believe they could pull out a lot

which is huge. So again, gold is not as hard as Bitcoin. In fact, the amount of gold produced every year is about 3,000 tons, 110 million ounces. And if you

multiply that by the current price of gold, it's about $462 billion or a quarter of Bitcoin's market cap. Bitcoin

is hard. Gold not as hard. In fact, gold is very soft in its raw form. But uh

with all these gold discoveries, I don't know how long it's going to continue, but it might make it softer and then there'll be one pristine digital gold and that's Bitcoin. We'll see. I'm here

for it. Now, it's been a such a good recovery day. Let's check the Bitcoin

recovery day. Let's check the Bitcoin price. 915. I'll take that. Bitcoin now

price. 915. I'll take that. Bitcoin now

5200 bucks today. But everybody's

freaking out. Jeff Lutzo his comments is like everybody became a Japanese bond expert last week. But Bank of Japan rethinks rate rate hikes and Bitcoin

takes a nose dive. Anyway, the point about this meme, and I love memes where you can tell a much bigger story, what happens if if there's any inkling of fear in the market or a little bit of

FUD, the market makers jump all over it, drive the price down to liquidate you.

Don't let that happen. Again, look at the V-shaped recovery shows you was all complete nothing burger. And another one that's also very interesting. Shout out

to Ocean JJ for this one.

He creates the best memes. When I say something in a video, he'll turn into a meme. And I should do a video of all of

meme. And I should do a video of all of his memes because they're hilarious. But

they also have valuable lessons. But

this is uh from Tom Lee. Sorry, Bitcoin

won't be at alltime high in December. It

will be in January and if not in February and if not for sure in March.

So I I really wanted Tom Lee to be right, but I also know hope is not a strategy. And this was a lot. This is 55

strategy. And this was a lot. This is 55 slides. All of these are turned into uh

slides. All of these are turned into uh Substacks that you can listen to podcasts. You get all the slides, you

podcasts. You get all the slides, you get all the write up, etc. Thank you to the team that does that. And I hope you all learned something. A big thank you as well to and for every being here too

during these crazy times in the markets.

DBF 430 Nick Marovski it's likechaikovski I like that name swiper no swiping I am cult Piper Haliaala

sounds Hawaiian and Clint Alexander 8 thank you all for coming on friends and thank you of course the best mods in the world Sha D&D and K8 for keeping us all

safe from scammers and toxicity which we don't like don't put up with any toxicity in life it'll just shorten your life and reduce the quality of your my life.

That's the key. Anyway, thank you all for coming. See you all tomorrow.

for coming. See you all tomorrow.