RIP Vibe Coding. Feb 2025-Oct 2025.
By The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News
Summary
## Key takeaways - **AI Coding's Dominance in 2025**: AI coding has unexpectedly become the most significant AI theme of 2025, surpassing broader predictions of AI agents dominating the conversation. [03:57], [04:14] - **The End of 'Vibe Coding'**: The term 'vibe coding' is becoming obsolete as developers grow uncomfortable with its superficiality, leading to a need for more robust and maintainable software development practices. [05:10], [07:01] - **Agent Labs Rivaling Model Labs**: Emerging 'agent labs' are now competing with established 'model labs' in terms of market influence, valuation, and employee count, reshaping the AI industry landscape. [03:44], [03:52] - **Sync vs. Async Spectrum Evolution**: The distinction between synchronous and asynchronous AI coding tools is blurring, with async tools becoming faster and sync tools focusing on complex, human-AI collaborative problem-solving. [16:24], [17:17] - **Code AGI: 80% of Value, 20% of Time**: Code AGI is projected to deliver 80% of the value of full AGI significantly faster, requiring only 20% of the time, due to code's verifiable and rapidly evolving nature. [23:59], [24:05] - **Agent Labs vs. Model Labs**: AI companies are bifurcating into 'agent labs' that build user-facing products first and 'model labs' that focus on foundational research, with agent labs showing strong product-market fit. [30:39], [33:11]
Topics Covered
- AI Coding's Explosive Growth: From Niche to $600M Business
- The Unforeseen Dominance of AI Coding in 2025
- Moving Beyond 'Vibe Coding': Building Software We Don't Hate
- AI in 2025: Context Engineering and ROI Take Center Stage
- The "Kindergarten Version" of AI ROI Survey
Full Transcript
Welcome back to the AI daily brief. This
week, as I am out traveling for my
anniversary, we are going to have a
combination of regular shows as well as
some different formats that we don't
normally get to do. And one of those is
an interview with the man, the myth, the
legend, Shawn Wang, better known as
Swix. Now, you might have heard me talk
about Swix on here, or maybe you've
heard his podcast, Late in Space, or his
events, the AI engineer Summit and AI
Engineer Worlds Fair. And even though
many of us who are creators or listeners
of this show aren't technical or aren't
developers ourselves outside of vibe
coding, I think it's a really valuable
thing to spend our time understanding
what developers are talking about. As I
discuss with Shawn in this show, it's a
little bit like previewing the future.
And so what we do in this conversation
is look at the big themes that he is
thinking about and the big conversations
shaping that sector of the industry and
also how he's turning those into key
themes for the AI engineer code summit
which is coming up in New York. Now, for
those of you who will be at the AI
Engineer Code Summit, I will be speaking
there and I'm very excited. But without
any further ado, let's get into this
conversation and bring Swix once again
back to the AI Daily Brief. All right,
Sean/Swix, better known as Swix, how are
you doing, man? Welcome back to the
show.
>> I'm doing great. Thank you for having me
again.
>> Yeah, it's uh always great to check in
with you. Um, as I was just saying, I
think the reason that I'm always
pointing people to to you and the set of
content that you're around is I think
especially for folks who are outside of
the kind of AI engineering conversation,
understanding what the builders are
talking about is kind of like living in
the future a little bit. So, what I
wanted to do today is is dig into maybe
some of those conversations that are
driving the AI engineering community.
And the specific context that I think is
interesting is you have a big event
coming up in just about a month, a
little less than a month now where
obviously you have to think about and
crystallize those things into content.
So maybe let's kick off by just if you
want to tell us a little bit about the
code summit and how you think about this
event relative to the others that you
do.
>> Yeah. And I should also flag that you're
speaking uh which I'm very excited
about.
>> Yes, I know. I I can't wait to be back
with you. Uh so I've been organizing AI
engineer summits for three years and
usually they are kind of generalist.
They focus on just whoever the best
speakers I can get and the general state
of AI. And I think that now the meta is
kind of shifting towards focus and
concentration on a certain topic because
when we have as many sort of applicants
as we have cuz it's like a you know you
have to apply to get into this
conference we we get to pick and like
the best vibes are when everyone you run
into is all all concentrated on the same
theme like you gather for a certain
topic and even like changing the name
and like um focusing on certain theme
changes the entire vibe of the whole
thing. Uh which is very cool, very very
very fun. This is something I I realized
as a meetup organizer. So so we're we're
doing uh this is our first ever summit
entirely focused on AI coding and we're
doing enterprise and individual
contributor days as well. Uh but I think
like the focus is on like why coding has
emerged as something that has particular
product market fit uh and especially
emerged this year. And it seems weird
for me to say this as someone who's had
a whole career in developer tools and
kind of always focused on AI coding, but
we've never done this before. Uh but I
think this is the year like you know
most people don't even remember that
cloud code only emerged in March uh this
year and is now larger than you know
$600 million business. Uh and it it was
like after our last summit in New York
when you were MCE. So like a lot has
changed. Um, Cognition and Cursor have
emerged as like very large startups. I
can't even call them startups anymore.
It's like uh what we've been calling is
agent labs that are starting to rival
the model labs in terms of market pool,
valuation, employees, what have you. Uh,
and I think it's one of the most
interesting stories of the year.
>> Yeah. I mean what's what's fascinating
about this is it is I don't think anyone
would disagree that this is if not the
dominant or most important AI theme of
the year it's certainly got to be among
the top two you know and it was not on
the radar as the thing that was going to
drive all conversations you know when
everyone was doing their end of year
content you know their end of 2024 into
2025 content predictions no one at least
the one that I saw was like this is the
year of coding this is the year of AI
coding AI coding agents it was the AI
the year of AI agents broadly right that
was sort of like the money's on bet for
what happened I mean vibe coding only
carpathy said that tweet in February
right it's it's it it feels like a
million years ago because of the
inevitability but it really you know we
we are kind of just catching up with
ourselves in some ways
>> uh a little bit and uh I actually also
you know have a spicy thing because
generally I agree with Andre in
everything and most people do but I
think the one thing that is uh happening
right now is that the software engineers
are feeling very uncomfortable with vibe
coding and I think you know you talk
about how we're all 6 months ahead of of
of the of main street vibe coding you
know I declared the end of vibe coding
being cool uh this month and I think a
lot of what we're meeting to discuss in
uh at AI code summit is is like what's
after vibe coding like how can we avoid
the slop and like build software ware
that we don't hate. Uh don't get don't
get stuck in rabbit holes that the
agents might go down sometimes and uh
it's going to take work from the model
labs which we which we have represented.
It's going to take work from the agents
and it's going to take work from the uh
the customers which we also you know
want to hear from. So I I think it's uh
it's interesting because like there's
new terms and like people viping super
popular but I think it also might need
to evolve in some way.
>> Yeah. Well, so so le let's actually try
to unpack this a little bit because this
is this is sort of to me this was like
okay declaration like Sean's now in uh
in spicy mode for what what's coming
with this event, right? I think the
tweet was rip vibe coding 2025 to 2025
or something like that like perfectly
constructed tweet. But so let's talk
about what where the where the
discomfort is coming from and maybe sort
of like what the the difference between
what someone who's sort of excited about
this term still is thinking about when
they see it versus what this group of
engineers who are getting more
uncomfortable with when they when they
see that term what they're kind of
perceiving.
>> Yeah. I think the issue comes with like
we every one of us every software
engineer is very happy that people who
are nontechnical can get to somewhere
productive without engineers. engineers
are expensive. They're uh hard to do
work with. They're divas. They, you
know, whatever. Like just just, you
know, um they don't need to help make
your website, your personal website when
lovable and bold exist. And I think
that's nobody's nobody's has any issue
with that. I think it comes to a head
when you start to say like, "Oh, I I
vibe coded this. Like, come on. It only
took me like an hour. Uh now here, here
take it." and I expect the full thing by
Friday and like well like you know you
haven't dealt with any of the hard stuff
you you've only painted uh the the sort
of superficial picture and you you
confuse that for the full working app
that's one issue that is the sort of
non-technical to technical handoff that
is not being discussed negotiated uh in
fact what is happening is the infra
layers are specializing for the
nontechnical people so that the non the
the sort of vibe coders nontechnical
people are building basically building
of a completely different stack than the
technical ones. And so when you hand it
off, you have to completely rebuild
because it's it doesn't use any of the
same tech. I'm somewhat exaggerating. I
think the the the best crossover tech
right now is Superbase, which is why
Superbase is doing so well. They've
basically quadrupled valuation this
year, you know, but like the there's a
lot of like experimentation in in just
that that front. Then there's also the
inter software engineer fights where
software engineers are also vi coding of
course but some of them are being a lot
more sloppy than others and the people
who care about software care about
security care about maintenance care
about uh honestly just like getting
things uh right or understanding your
code so that you don't get into trouble
because LMS just do run into rabbit
holes and sometimes to really get them
out you have to understand the code. You
can't just sort of wash your hands off
it or or just flow based on vibes. So
when when that when that stuff happens
and people are irresponsible, then they
also tend to like leave PRs to other
people have to clean up. So you know, I
think like people just want something
better. Uh a lot of people are talking
about spectrum development as as a way
forward, which is something that Amazon
is is pushing a lot. uh as well as a
number of other people like my top
speaker from World's Fair was Sean Grove
from OpenAI who was basically pitching
spectrum and development and model
alignment specs. So like I think there's
a lot of action around this. No one the
the term that has to to sort of replace
or complement vibe coding hasn't emerged
yet but I can definitely feel it in the
air. It's literally present in every
conversation I have. Everyone's sick and
tired of VIP coding.
>> Yeah. Is so it's super interesting.
What? So, a couple things. One, there's
this classic pattern with change,
technology change, where we forget
temporarily that the paradigm shift
isn't going to be from a set of problems
to an era of no problems. It's trading
one set of problems for another, which
hopefully are a it's a good trade-off.
It's a sufficiently good trade-off that
that new set of problems we'd rather
deal with because of the gains that come
from the switch, right? And I think that
that second part of the conversation
that you were just mentioning sort of
the intraengineer conversation is a lot
about that. It's like okay well now we
have to reconcile with you know all of
the stuff that comes along with if we
can do xyz much faster or automated or
with background agents it creates this
new set of problems and we are still
going to have to deal with those. we're
going to have to rearchitect our systems
and and sort of, you know, the the way
that we work to accommodate that. And I
think that that's a very natural process
of like figuring that out and actually
sort of rationalizing what it looks like
to use these systems well even as the
technology is changing. And and I want
to come back and kind of talk about
maybe the the sync async spectrums and
and a couple other things that you've
talked about as it relates to kind of
where where these things are. The first
one, you know, I I was thinking about
this. We really don't we don't have a
word for the difference between sort of
professional and amateur in the context
of a democratizing technology, right?
Like you know, if you think about like I
was trying to trying to make the proxy
of like content creation with social
media, right? Tik Tok and Cap Cut come
along and everyone can make videos.
There's clearly a difference between
amateur videos and Christopher Nolan and
no one would not acknowledge that. And
then in the middle it gets blurry of
course and there's some people who may
not be as technically good but the
things that they produce people like
more and you know but there's still like
you know the terms that we have are all
are all dumb right creator influencer
like they just kind of they don't
actually convey this gap and I think
it's actually one I think it's
completely unsurprising to me that
coding is sort of figuring this out
first in the context of AI you know AI
becomes this mass democratization
technology but there is still a
difference between to your point like my
sick terminalbased you AI daily brief
website that I use lovable to maintain
and like an actual product that goes out
and you know an enterprise is not going
to freak out on because it's it's got
you know kind of its security setup you
know we just don't we just don't have
good good terminology for that which I
which I think is is a challenge cuz to
your point I don't think anyone is
actually in disagreement that these
things are are different things. Yeah,
>> I think to some extent it is our job to
figure it out. Like this is not an
unsolvable problem. And so I don't I
want to put people at ease here in terms
of like keep you know keep keep doing
what you're doing. Keep keep uh keep up
with the Bolton uh and lovables and vibe
coding in general. I think it is the job
of the engineers to try to figure out
that transition path because we haven't
worked it out yet. You know, I'm gabbing
people and like trying to focus people's
energies on on this because clearly like
when a new technology emerges and it is
somewhat disruptive to the old
technology. People who are tied to the
old technology complain, which is
exactly what they're doing here, by the
way. But also the goal is not to reject
the new technology, is to embrace it and
figure out how to reshape everything
else uh in order to accommodate it. So I
I think like there's there's more
there's more synergy here than like
people fear when when they when they
first hear about this stuff.
>> Yeah. Yeah, I wonder I wonder if there's
I mean you know I don't know if it's an
interim solution or not but it feels
like there's there's a role or at least
a function around sort of translating
you know if you've got all especially if
you think inside an organization or a
startup you've got all these folks who
are now able to speak with code right
instead of talking about features they
want they can just you know mock them up
which is you know what we do what every
company I know at this does you're
you're talking about sort of the
challenge of translation it feels like
that's that's a thing that someone could
get really good at you know both helping
people sort of you know build things in
the right way in the But anyways,
there's there's a lot lots of
developments that I think are going to
going to come on that front.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. So, the next thing I wanted to
talk about which is sort of you know
builds off of this a little bit is what
this landscape of AI and agentic coding
platforms the full breadth of it now
because part of the the challenge and
and why sort of vibe coding RIP I think
is that like if you go back six months
ago it's like who's going to win bolt or
lovable? It's literally that and then
cla code comes and it's like okay now cl
you know as opposed to now people people
with a passing glance see lovable bolt
claude codec cli uh cognition factory
and and it's sort of this you know this
broad spectrum and and you actually
wrote about this a little bit when when
you sort of shared that you were joining
cognition huge congrats by the way I
think that's by the way for for my money
maybe the most useful uh I I'm making a
career switch blog post that I've ever
seen
Um, usually that's a very very sort of
self-indulgent thing. It's just like
here's my trajectory that was like kind
of packed with interesting observations
and one of them that you talked about is
the this sync async spectrum. I would
love you know without asking you to kind
of boil the ocean share kind of roughly
how you see the topography of these you
know of of these categories of coding
tools emerging right now.
Yeah, you're making me think about uh
other conversations I've had since since
that that uh publication. But yeah, so
so totally. Um I think there are a
number of charts that people have made u
you know basically coding agents are
enormously popular and now we're just
figuring out what the ideal interfaces
for them are right so probably it
initially started with GitHub copilot
which is uh just spicy autocomplete as
they say. Devon launched like two years
ago with sort of the web app um sort of
interface code interpreter is also in in
the mix somewhere in there where uh you
know you can chat and like it starts to
generate code and run and execute that
code I would say then cursor obviously
uh with composer and you know all the
other cursor agent stuff that they're
launching. So I think like now the form
factors are you have the IDE or V or or
VS code extension, you have the web app,
you have Slack or whatever your sort of
team collaboration thing is. You might
also want to put linear in there. Uh and
then finally you have the terminal which
is obviously like the newest that
emerged on the burst on the scene this
year with cloud code. basically you just
need universal handoff for among
everything and uh I think like that is
the goal you know everything I described
all the surface areas all the companies
pretty much have all of them now I think
uh with like cloud code going to the web
and codeex coming to the VS code
extension it's everyone's got everything
and I think that the handoff is like not
worked out yet so cloud code is the
first one to work out like a the
hackiest possible version which is uh
cloud code teleport where you can just
sort of dump the JSON of the chat and
continue with it in locally which
because they're the same uh instance uh
the same cloud code on both sides uh but
I think like there may be some more
evolutions from there because that's not
naturally how we transfer context
between engineers working differently
and so like in my post uh I started
talking about the sacing spectrum and
you kind of need to own that which is
why I was very impressed with cognition
buying windsurf when was up for grabs
because well you know here's like the
number two IDE it's for cheap because
you know like a month ago it's worth 3
billion. Now it's worth like less. Uh
the rumor is a 300. I I I I actually
haven't even confirmed uh that number.
But yeah, I mean like you know at some
point it's worth buying and and actually
you know you're starting to have a leg
up in in that sort of sync side of the
the spectrum while Async is having
extreme product market fit, right? Like
I I talked a little bit about the
numbers in in the Cognition blog post as
well. So like I think that's good. I
think actually sync async might be a bad
framing uh which is really weird for me
because one thing that's happening now
that you're going to see with cursor 2.0
today and also uh what cognition is is
launching is that the async side is
moving faster rather than slower because
I think there's been a perverse
incentive to measure all these coding
agents based on the number of hours
worked and like you know where else do
we do that? Well, lawyers and like
everyone every and like you know
everything that we hate uh because
you're just incentivizing them to take
more time uh which is horrible like no
one no one actually wants that we're
just using that as a poor proxy for like
how you know what difficulty of work and
you actually doing so everyone's working
on faster agents I think which is good
for users ultimately because that's what
we want in practice the async side is
becoming more sync and then the sync
side is changing in terms of like the
the mindset right like why do you want
uh synchronous code. Well, the the
actual answer is because not everything
can be viodated. Uh like the anti- vibe
code is to turn your brain on instead of
off and use AI to augment your skills
and thinking rather than to replace it
and with scrolling Twitter, right? So
the sync mode is for the deepest focused
and hardest problems where you need the
centaur combination of human and AI. Uh
and so that's that's what I posted in
the the recent thing we shipped on
Swiggraph where we have the uh sort of
async value of productivity, right? Like
either you're super productive because
you're you're in flow and you're focused
and you're working on hard problems. uh
if agents take longer then you start to
switch away and change context and lose
context and then later on when you you
start to get more productive again
because you are able to employ parallel
async background agents on stuff that is
like really commodity and like you can
trust them to nail it.
>> Yeah. So what this reflects to me is the
richness of the just the topic of AI
coding this why why you can do an entire
summit about the variety of
conversations going on here what are
some of the other conversations that
you're trying to bring in you know that
have been maybe part of part of previous
summits that you've done you know eval
memory context like sort of what you
know rag like what what are what are
some of the other big kind of big
hitters that are going to be you think
key parts of the conversation heading
into this year's event.
>> Yeah, I think memory and planning are
always going to be huge. Context
engineering is obviously a huge theme
this year and we have the the guy who
one of the three people that coined
context engineering
uh speaking. Dex Dex is a fantastic
speaker, one of the top speakers at
World's Fair. And I think like then the
other part is honestly just like
organizational transitions which
actually uniquely as a podcast you you
will cover which is rare uh which is
more of a leadership topic, right? like
uh sure like the AI exists but like how
do you like move an existing large
organization to take advantage of it to
upskill your team and maybe potentially
reorg in order to uh capture the the
opportunities right like I think like
this is one of those things where like
for the first time I'm able to feature
people from like Goldman Sachs and
Mckenzie and like you know like the some
of the top enterprises in the world uh
Northwestern Mutual uh you know and like
Bloomberg's coming back this year.
There's just a lot of like very
interesting especially east coast
stories that I wanted to feature because
a lot of tech is like very west coast
ccentric but uh there's a lot of good
stuff happening in enterprises too.
>> Yeah. on the organizational change
piece. Um, one of the things that I
think is is really interesting about and
and I think to me was reflective of just
how dominant the AI coding theme has
been this year is when we started, you
know, when we were we were kind of first
doing some of these agent audits around
the beginning of the year, it was very
often the case that the engineering
departments were surprisingly some of
the holdouts. They were the sort of most
intrigent around wanting to to adopt new
systems. And while I don't while my
perception is not that that's gone away
entirely, it does feel like there has
been a major shift over the course of
the year. Perhaps as the tools have
gotten better, as the models have gotten
better, as you know, maybe our
understanding of, you know, how to
integrate these systems has gotten
better, certainly not universal, but we
see less and less, you know, just, you
know, over my dead body kind of, uh,
engineering departments when it comes to
some of these transitions.
>> Yeah, totally. Um I I think like there's
a lot of knowledge sharing in this kind
of stuff, but it's also like not fully
uh well mapped out. And honestly, I'm
waiting to hear from you and you know
the rest of the speakers on the on the
leadership day to map out like the state
of affairs and like what is working,
what is not among the the enterprises
that you talk to. So speaking of that
one term, you know, basically going back
to what you were saying about vibe
coding, it almost feels like part of the
challenge is that it this this same word
or same phrase means different things to
different people, right? I think that
context engineering is going to be a
term that has a similar bifurcation or
potential bifurcation in in the year
because context engineering is is a very
sort of like technical set of of
questions for engineers who are thinking
about how to design systems that better
interact with context. But it is also
now a uh a leadership or sort of a
change mindset as people like basically
sort of akin to prompt engineering for
individuals where organizations are
thinking about context engineering as
how do we sort of organize our data
broadly speaking to be ready to be used
by these systems. How do I think as I am
prompting individually as a as a sort of
you know a frontline worker in a
company. How am I making sure that I'm
giving it enough work context? And it's
not that that's obviously a totally
separate thing, but you know, the the
one is not thinking about different ways
for kind of technical methods for the
LLM to access different information.
It's more of a mindset shift getting
away from just strictly prompt
engineering to making sure that your
your cloud skills are updated with all
all the things that they need. And uh I
wouldn't be surprised if we see again
there's sort of like the enterprise
non-technical conversation around
context engineering which is going to be
sort of like a very broad use of the
term context and a very broad use of the
term engineering as opposed to maybe the
more technical conversation.
>> Cool. I don't have a view on that yet.
That's something that you're picking up
better than me. So I'm curious to learn
more as
>> Yeah. Flesh out.
>> It's a prediction, not a not a not a
fatal complaint. So the the last couple
of things I I wanted to ask you about
move back to the blog post that we were
that I was mentioning the Devons in the
details. Um the two things that I think
really stood out to me. One was your
kind of very simple 8020 sort of notion
of of code AGI. Uh I I'd love to just
sort of like hear about that a little
bit. So the the quote is I'll quote
yourself you so you don't have to quote
yourself but the line was the central
realization I had was this code AGI will
be achieved in 20% of the time of full
AGI and capture 80% of the value of AGI
so talk talk I would love to hear just a
little bit about kind of h how you think
about that I think it will resonate even
with my non-technical audience just
based on how much coding has shaped what
we've all done with AI this year despite
not being coders.
>> Yeah. Um, well, I mean, so I would say
that there's a little bit of self cringe
when I when I really boiled it down
because obviously the world is never
that simple, but you have to think about
the highest order bit and you have to
think about concentrating your bets
>> uh instead of spreading them out when it
comes to power laws. And so 8020 paro
principle framing is is the way that I
do it. Um, okay. So, and then the other
the other irony is code AGI is a I don't
know what's what's what's the word for
like self-contradiction because if it's
general, it should be general. It
shouldn't it shouldn't be.
>> Right. Right. Right.
>> But like um you know all all that all
that aside, I think that the general
sentiment is what I was trying to
reflect which is literally value capture
versus timelines. And I think those are
the right two axes to really think about
in terms of where to spend your time and
uh where to invest maybe and which is
which are the same thing. You're
investing your time or investing your
money. And so I I think like one I think
the the obvious statements are all all
listed in there which is how like code
is like a verifiable domain. It's much
faster. The people working on the code
are also the people like you know
consuming the models. So like there's
there's just like a general virtuous
cycle that is obvious in there and like
basically doesn't need any more
elaboration. Uh I think the interesting
thing comparatively here is also the
value side uh instead of just the
timelines which is obviously happening
now a little bit but like you have to
really and for me to join a company
that's that's worth 10 billion you know
like what's the upside like 20 like no
like it has to be 100 and so I think
like you have to really think through
like is that even on the cards and I
think uh yeah probably like and and
that's mostly because of the flexibility
of code I think that the best way to
commute ate this is with like how many
people and how many times people have
observed that you can use cloud code to
do non-coding tasks right because it
does generalize it it has the sandbox of
tools uh we used to you know in the
chatbot era only do uh you know
embeddings retrieval right but now we
have like agentic search and that
basically requires a document library
and all the things that people talk
about in the you know the modernized
LMOS stack uh for people who are
interested in this uh check out Jerry
Lou's talk from the uh 2025 holds fair
and he talks a little bit about the the
emerging stack here and so like I I
think like that is probably the case
where like there's the things that we
learn in coding agents basically
generalize and actually the the people
who work on coding agents first will
will find it faster because they already
have like I it's like super obvious to
me that they that they already seen it
in some ways like cloud code is a is a
new foundation for cloud itself like
when people talk about like the cloud
platform or They people talk about like
cloud for finance which or Excel which
was launched this week. It's all based
on a foundation that was built with
cloud code. Uh so it's like it's funny
because it's I'm not even really really
putting my neck out on on this thesis.
It's just I'm just calling it out as
something that's already happening.
>> Yeah. No, it's it's super interesting.
Like I said, I think I think it's a fa
fascinating way to look at things. And
the la last thing that I wanted to ask
you about is so I' I've said a number of
times on the show probably enough to
start to annoy people that I think two
dominant themes heading into next year
at least for sort of like the business
the AI at work side of things. Um one is
I I actually think is context
engineering and just thinking broadly
about what's the set of information that
we need to provide you know whatever AI
we're using for it to do better than
just whatever it sort of can do out of
the box. I think that's going to be a
massive theme and I think that part of
why it's going to be a big theme is that
by making it a theme it gives
organizations the license to do unfun
very difficult things like you know big
data uh projects that were you know less
sexy than like coming like coming into
this year was like what what
demonstration agent can I build I think
going into next year it's going to be
more like how do I get this entire house
in order and there's going to be you
know sort of wind and wind at people's
backs for that. So that's one. I think
the other very obvious one is ROI and
performance. I think it's easier said
than done, but I think there's going to
be a lot a lot a lot a lot of discussion
around, you know, how these AI uh and
and agentic systems are actually sort of
impacting the world of work. You know,
be it time savings, cost savings, new
capabilities unlocked. Uh I think that's
going to be a major exploration. The
third which I'm just starting to sniff
and uh and so I'm not ready to sort of
call it on that same level is I think
that I see this conversation starting
around the product era of AI and the
emphasis on products in which AI is
situated being the things that people
are are releasing and focusing on as
opposed to the conversation just purely
being you know how does this model
compare to the one that was 0.5 before
it and you had uh it was not this this
wasn't the conversation But one of the
things that you talked about was the
sort of difference between agent labs
and model labs. And uh I'd love to just
that if you if you want to share that
framework because I think it might might
have a stake in that that larger
conversation as well.
>> Yeah. Okay. There's there's a lot in
there. So uh first of all product era is
a broader thesis than agent lab. Um I
think product era is basically in VC
terminology is the application layer
winning right like and definitely 2
years ago application layer was very
unsexy people made fun of it you're just
writing GPC rappers now they're like $30
billion companies and like you know 50x
sales and uh Harvey and and cursor and
all these guys are are doing super well
a bridge uh you know open evidence what
what have you um so so I think like yeah
the the the product era has definitely
happened but the specific type of
products that is doing super well is
agents. So like uh that's how I make
that transition. I think like as a
product person sometimes you can
overthink it and if you really just look
at like what the heck people are
actually having PMF with it's just
agents like Reb spent like two years
like working on AI products and like got
nowhere and then they build an agent and
then suddenly they're like get $300
million revenue. Uh so it's like um kind
of obvious um if you just take it
literally anywhere like uh you know like
uh notion like getting serious of agents
is is is very good for notion uh all
that stuff. Okay. Uh the agent lab is a
thesis that isn't quite fully worked out
yet. Uh but it's really just the case
for building AI companies in a different
way than has been in the past. Uh I you
know obviously I love two word uh
coining things that are two words and I
I love uh like I love the way that like
people start to organically adopt it
which is why I know this this
terminology is working because like now
people are saying it without even me
being present in the room. Uh the the
Asian lab thesis I'm going to I'm going
to pull up this uh this this guy's
coverage of my clothes which is uh which
is really helpful. uh it's basically
like people shipping products first into
the model first, right? Like a lot of AI
companies in the past, they would just
basically say they they'll raise a bunch
of money, announce they have a bunch of
money, announce they have a bunch of
cracked researchers, they buy a bunch of
GPUs, and then you don't hear from them
for 6 months uh or or a year, and then
they they come out with like, oh, here's
our model, you can't try it, but like we
here's here's some interesting updates
from our model. That's exactly by the
way I I mean I'll come right out and say
it like when when we launched street
grip in in cognition like it I was like
oh this is why like magic with their
their 100 million token model never
launched because their model lab uh and
cognition is agent lab build the agent
first and then build the model and I
think that was like a a backto-front
theme that I think really starts to play
well. It it remains to be seen obviously
because I think the bitter lesson
applies and scale in infrastructure and
GPUs is king. Uh how much of the
relative value agent labs can capture
with model labs? But I think that's
really bifrocating and like it's so
weird. Yesterday OpenAI like kind of
proved my point like did you watch the
live stream from yesterday?
>> Mhm.
>> Basically Sam was like we're giving up
on products. We're we're building you
know infra we have like chip we have
Sora but that's about it like everything
else is third party we're going to be a
platform you should make more more money
than us on our models right he said all
this and like I think to to me who has
been watching openi as long as you have
uh that's never been that clear like
they always wanted
>> Yeah totally I think I think it's
probably been not clear to them I think
they've been debating it back and forth
constantly
>> they hired a CEO of applications that's
curious because now they only have too.
Um uh but like you know there's there's
going to be applications built on uh
CHBT but like that's that's a different
thing anyway. So so I think like now the
lane the swim lanes are very clear right
you want to build AGI go join a model
lab. You want to build uh products that
serve users and and vertical domains
build an agent lab. And I think like
that's really what I'm seeing with the
agent lab thesis. I I think there's
probably like more to flesh out here on
like what a good agent lab looks like
versus a bad one.
But like I I I'm pretty curious and I
think like that explains the entire
differences between the vibes that you
get from agent labs versus model labs. I
think one of the interesting
implications maybe we'll explore this in
the in the talk in a couple weeks is it
might force enterprise buyers to think a
little bit differently. I think that it
has felt for a while like you could
effectively avoid pretty much all that's
happening in the longtail and just deal
with you know the you know the the the
foundation model companies or maybe the
one sort of like leading vertical player
in your industry like if you're legal
like maybe you deal with Harvey or you
know if you're in medical you deal but
like but not you know one of the reasons
that I don't have a ton of space on the
show to cover as many of the cool new
products as I'd like is so much of the
audience is like well I can I just I
mean if I use it in my personal life
great but there's no universe in which
that's coming in and if it really is the
case that the model companies decide
that they really are going to be
platforms and let uh let the sort of you
know the agent labs build the next set I
think you will have to see an expansion
in just the procurement process which is
very very discreet part of the
conversation but an interesting one. H
um yeah no no no difference uh take on
that. I I think maybe the one hole in
this thesis is maybe anthropic because
they are really building out cloud code
to be an agent lab within the model lab
and every model lab can easily build an
agent lab for sure. Uh it it is just a
matter of resources and a matter of
honestly social pecking order to be an
applied AI engineer inside a model lab
is like low status. You're paid half
what the researchers get paid probably
less if you're working in meta. Um I I
think like I think that it's interesting
um how seriously the the labs taken and
obviously there's a very very wide
variance but typically like typically
and I speak to plenty of people you know
in those in those roles they are more
like the four deployed engineers but
they're not involved in research and the
company clearly values research more and
it just that's just how it is.
>> Well Sean awesome conversation could
talk to you for hours but uh excited for
the event coming up in a few weeks. Uh,
thank you for hanging out and um keep
keep telling us where the future is.
>> Yeah, I'm excited for your talk. Do you
want to preview your what you what you
gonna talk about?
>> The I I don't know yet, but what I do
know is that I'd like it to be
substantive as possible. So, I don't
know if you've seen, but I've got this
thing live right now, ROI survey.
>> Um, like I said, I think I think that
next year there's going to be so much
conversation of ROI. And this is like
the kindergarten version of ROI. It's
literally like tell us your top use
case, which of these eight areas is sort
of like the biggest area of benefit,
time saved, cost saved, whatever, and
then give us your subjective rating, you
know, of it, like how many hours per
week or what it's it is so generic, but
I still, you know, it's been live at the
time of recording for like 36 hours and
we have, you know, 250 plus use cases
that people have logged in and said,
"Here's how it's benefiting me." And
already that's such a different amount
of information that that we don't really
have access to. So I'm I'm hoping that
there's something that's interesting
there maybe combined with some of the
other uh other readouts and and and
learnings that we've had from super
intelligent. So it's not just me
rambling. It's uh it's a little bit more
data driven, but we'll see. We'll see
what's ready by by uh November 20th.
>> Good. Uh yeah, the ROI of AI is a
perennial topic. Uh just like just like
every other leadership uh thing. It's
it's it's weird because I can just have
the same schedule every year and it like
Totally different.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, I hope we solved some things.
Uh we'll see. But human human problems
will always make new ones, you know, to
replace the old ones.
>> Uh but yeah, thank you. I know trying to
wrap up. Yeah.
>> Thanks, Sean. I'll see you soon. Season.
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