Ron Baron and Elon Musk Discuss the Future

Thank you everyone.

As I said before, this is a lot different than convention hall in Asbury Park.

Uh today we're privileged to have Elon Musk join us uh virtually and there couldn't be anyone more appropriate to

speak to today when I'm theme of our conference is changing lives. Uh there's

no one who's changed our lives more than Elon, especially changed our lives financially, but changed everyone else's lives and and and that really feels like

it's just beginning. Without him,

there'd be no electric vehicles. Uh

there no FASD. Has anyone ever heard of thought of full service drive self-driving five or 10 years ago? Has

anyone ever thought about that? Uh so uh uh reflyable rockets, no one has been able to do that before. Uh

congratulations to Jeff Bezos for accomplishing it uh yesterday. First

time uh we've already done uh what 5,000 flights and uh and uh we have 9,000 satellites I think it is on the way to 15,000. So uh and the people who did

15,000. So uh and the people who did that for him did it for Jeff are people who used to work at uh for for SpaceX

but couldn't go fast enough for Elon. So

now they went over to Bezos.

Um so there would be no Starlink uh no refi no Optimus. In fact, uh, one of the first questions I wanted to ask is I was telling my assistant about Optimus

before and how the plan is to go from, uh, a million production next year to 10 million the following year to a 100 million to a billion. And what she asked

me was, well, so uh, where's the room for them on the sidewalks? Are you going to build something? Is that the idea that we have behind uh Boring Company to

go underground for the robots to walk around or fly above? Where's the room for them?

>> Well, actually you you can you can fit um all of humanity um on floor

in the city.

That's how small the humans are. and and

octopus uh doesn't mind being packed densely.

So, it's always helpful to think how how much room do people take and and and this is why I think just having it in the back of your mind that all 8 billion

people on Earth can fit on one floor in the city of New York.

So playing another way if you get is is if you're playing across the country and your goal is to drop a water balloon on

someone you will fail [laughter] because it's empty.

>> We we used to do that when we were in eighth grade.

>> We got them though.

>> Um >> yeah.

>> So So Kaitlin, don't worry. There's

enough room.

So one of the things I think about when you talk about Optimus is that there are so many functions that it can perform.

What's going to be left for humans? Is

there a job that humans going to have other than just living in uh you know this this great uh abundance that that you're going to create? What what's

going to happen?

Well, I think there is this question of on how do you write meaningful plan if the

robots can do everything but we see lots of examples where even though

machines can do much better humans like athlet athletics for example um or let's take

a mental sport like chess.

U the computers are so good that your phone not even connected to the internet

can beat Magnus calls easily.

But yet chess is at all times in popularity.

So clearly machines being better at us than us at something doesn't mean we derive set in doing it.

By the way guys is the connection isn't that good with a phone. Is there some way we can do something else?

>> Bit echoy.

>> We're not the connection isn't that good. I think it keeps cutting in and

good. I think it keeps cutting in and out.

>> Can I what if I talk from this? So it

goes.

[laughter] Okay. Okay. You do that. You

do that and I'll do this. [laughter]

>> Um, so so the function the function >> get closer to look at my notable. Sorry.

>> The the functions that you see these robots doing is what? What are they going to do?

>> And why is there how are we going to have a billion of them when we have eight billion people? How

>> look it's going to take us a minute to put make a billion robots. So, you know, they're all very

um but but I think we will um there will ultimately be billions billions of human robots.

Um, a way to think of it is, uh, who on earth not want their own personal R2D2 T3PO?

Like pretty much everyone wants, you know, 3PO, but even better.

Um, like your personal helper buddy robot. It would be great.

robot. It would be great.

uh you could teach your teach your kids take your dog for a walk, get get the groceries, you know, chat, you know, protect you when when needed.

Great.

Um and then how many robots would there be in industry providing products?

probably 3 or 4 to one relative to humans which which suggests that total number of robots will be somewhere around

maybe as high as 40 billion 40 billion maybe 30 billion robots it's a lot >> so so uh the Japanese company I think is

kukov those robots that are used in manufacturing are 50,000 100,000 150,000 and you're describing a robot is $20,000. Do we have to have a million a

$20,000. Do we have to have a million a year to do that or 10 million a year to get to $20,000?

And is that something that's going to be affordable for people? Are they going to be rented? They're going to be purchased

be rented? They're going to be purchased corporations, are we going to get some kind of carried interest once they buy them from us? How is this going to work

or don't we have the model yet?

Uh well my rough guess is that the uh cost of good sold uh their labor and materials for Optimus

um after we reach a million units of steady state production. So call it a year after reaching a million units a year. Um because it takes a lot of

year. Um because it takes a lot of effort to uh improve the cost. Um,

but at that point I would expect the the B the labor and materials to be 20 to $30,000 in current year dollars.

>> I think that's that's a pretty I think that's a pretty safe estimate >> when you're improving costs. So with

cars, your idea is that everything we buy from other people to use in our cars, we know exactly how much it costs and therefore we can tell someone how much we're going to pay for what we're

buying from them. And if it doesn't if they're making too much then we make that stuff ourselves. Is that the same kind of idea we have in this robots where we're going to it should be much

simpler to make than a car or am I wrong because of a hand?

>> The hand is the hand is extremely complex. Um there are 50

complex. Um there are 50 actuators in the hand and forearm.

>> Actuator is the motor.

>> Yeah. actuator is the motor, gearbox, and power electronics.

Um, so that's a 100 per robot.

Um really a lot of butt actuators and sensors, right? Am I getting approximately?

right? Am I getting approximately?

Um, so it's it's it's there's a lot of complexity. Uh,

complexity. Uh, >> why is that important? Why is it important that we have such a complex hand?

Uh so in order to do dextrous tasks you you have to have a hand with the the sensitivity, precision and degrees

of freedom of a human hand because you know the so something that is we find easy to do like pick up a

screwdriver or turn a wrench uh or even say thread a needle uh or play the guitar actually require a

lot of dexterity.

Um and uh one of the one of the paths but one of the reasons um we we think we achieve sustainable abundance

which is sort of the that new um sort of the revised version of the company's goal because it was accelerate sustainable energy which as you

mentioned we've we've done that. Um our

new goal is sustainable abundance. So

that's abundance for all.

um and but but in a way that is sustainable that does not uh destroy uh any of the natural wilderness.

>> How do we decide who gets what? Somebody

wants to buy my house, they can just come in and start living there.

>> Well, I'm not sure why. I mean, I do have a nice house, so

why. I mean, I do have a nice house, so [laughter] I can certainly see the appeal. Um but

uh the robots will be able to make anyone a house and uh you know as long as you don't insist on it being in a particular location you

can have Roberts will be able to build you a castle if you want. So and but the the reason for hand dexterity is you

want to be able to do um like surgery and precision medical actions. And um so imagine a world where

everyone has access to the best surgeons, literally everyone.

And uh Optimus will have the level of precision that is frankly superhuman.

Um and will be able to do medical procedures um of very sophisticated medical procedures, any any medical procedure perhaps things

that that really humans can't even do because they're too they're too difficult. Um and that will be available

difficult. Um and that will be available to anyone.

You hear people often talk about eliminating poverty and providing great medical care, but they never they never actually have a solution.

Um, and and money doesn't solve it because there are only so many uh there's very limited number of of great doctors and surgeons. Uh they don't grow

on trees. Um but now they they will get

on trees. Um but now they they will get built in factories. So, so, uh, I sent you a year or two ago an article about a young man who was in an interview in

Barrens and he was 33 at the time and he'd become a portfolio manager and he lost his legs to a um, he was a parolympic performer and he lost his

legs to maneing bacteria and he said, "Is there anything we can do to get him out of the wheelchair?" And you said, "Yes, there is. In three or four years, we can give him an optimist body and

then we can use you know transistors in his head in his brain to let him function as a normal person and dance

and sing and walk and run. Have we been able to make progress in that area?

>> Yeah. So that's a compliment of two of my companies. One is being your link and

my companies. One is being your link and the other being Tesla. Um so Neurolink is also making good progress. Um now has

I think over 10 uh patients with Neuralink implants. Um and and these

Neuralink implants. Um and and these people who didn't have the ability to move their arms or legs in some cases were completely locked in like like

Steve Corking. Um and they can now

Steve Corking. Um and they can now communicate um I think as quickly almost as quickly as we're communicating right now.

um which is very cool and that's that's going to continue to accelerate. Um so

what we can do is use a neural link implant um that is taking signals from the motor cortex of the brain

um and and also uh uh receiving signals from this semato smatensory cortex um and then you have someone uh who's lost

their legs optimus legs and so you I mean we're really getting like the $6 million man here I mean from back in the I don't know if you watched that show, but I watched Netflix.

>> I watched I watched it.

>> Yeah, I thought it was pretty famili and and we we can actually give someone superhuman cyborg capabilities like the $6 million man, but less than $6 million [laughter]

in this day and age. I mean, $6 million back then was a fortune. These days,

this is like nothing. Um but uh but for much less than that I mean like for something that that would be reasonable and affordable. Um

and affordable. Um you know it might be well like $60,000 type of thing. Um and um and you can

take signals from neurolink the mind that would be transmitting to the legs and transmit those to the attached uh optimus robot legs and um and he would

actually be able to run faster than a human.

just just like $6 million.

>> You know sounds really exciting. Sounds

unbelievably exciting. Uh let's switch to XAI. Uh so three years ago you were

to XAI. Uh so three years ago you were here and you had either just purchased or about to purchase uh uh you know

Twitter which you've renamed X and you were widely criticized for that. And

>> yes I was >> right. In fact, you you even mentioned

>> right. In fact, you you even mentioned here on stage that you didn't want to have anyone else be angry at you because you had enough people trying to kill you already.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Totally.

>> Right. So, so you were buying you were buying uh X and it was $42 billion I think and you were in the process of raising money and I called you up and uh you hadn't called me to solicit me and I

called you up and I said uh I would like to invest with you $100 million in this uh and uh it was $60 million for one of

our funds and $40 million for me and uh and and you said really I said yeah [laughter] >> you said really and I said

and and you told me that you thought uh I would make a double. And uh I said, "Well, I hope so." Uh but to me, it felt like you made us $8 billion in in Tesla,

and it'd be not very appropriate if I didn't support uh this new venture that you were doing. So, we invested and uh and then the day that we paid the money,

uh we marked it down 70%. So,

>> Oh, man. [laughter]

This is this is how I know you're a true friend, Iran. Uh because uh this is a

friend, Iran. Uh because uh this is a you know um I I do regard you as as as a as a true a true and trusted friend. Um

and you know the the test of friendship it >> I got more to the story. [laughter]

>> Well, it's a better friendship better ending. The test of the test of

ending. The test of the test of friendship is is is who supports you when the chiffs are down and the times are tough and everyone's against you.

That's a real friend and that's you Ron.

>> Thank you.

Um so so so we did invest that 100 mark down to 30 and then about a year later we started getting phone calls from hedge funds who always seem to know things they're not supposed to know.

[laughter] >> Yeah. How do they do that?

>> Yeah. How do they do that?

>> Right. and they started saying, "I'd like to buy your stock for what you paid for it." And I said, "I think I'd rather

for it." And I said, "I think I'd rather wait and stay in," which I did. And then

uh and then uh changed the name to X and change the configuration of business and uh and then from that uh you bought uh Twitter and it came together and a

social network along with this and and and all of a sudden we have a business that has incredible data. Did you buy this for the data that no one knew about? But but the data with 600 million

about? But but the data with 600 million people talking with each other. So

physical data that no one else has. And

then you started Grock which is based on our data. Uh and everyone else doesn't

our data. Uh and everyone else doesn't have that. They got digital stuff. And

have that. They got digital stuff. And

then uh when they have Grock then we need more data centers and you're building those. And in a space of a very

building those. And in a space of a very short time, less than months, uh you built a data center which is four times what is large

as anyone else on the planet. 25,000

uh what what other people had in in CPUs and we built it in GPUs 100,000 uh more powerful and then uh uh you know now we

have now we're going to go to hundreds of thou but the bottom line is the investment that we made we put up more money and we have a total of $350 million invested over the past two or

three years and now it's worth $700 million. Uh

million. Uh so everything you touch is like that.

It's the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen. So so everyone invested in

ever seen. So so everyone invested in technology and we investing in in the technology person best engineer on the planet. So thank you very much. So so

planet. So thank you very much. So so

the vision is the question is did you buy X did you buy Twitter because of the data? Is that did you have all this in

data? Is that did you have all this in your head before you did it?

>> Uh not really. No, I I just bought Twitter because I thought it was um having a negative effect on civilization. [snorts] Um and um just

civilization. [snorts] Um and um just sort of pushing uh ideas that were anti-vilizational.

Um you know, it sort of having been somewhat captured by uh the far left. I'd say, you know, it's fair

far left. I'd say, you know, it's fair to say the radical left. I mean they they wouldn't regard themselves as such but it was captured by a you know group of people whose uh political beliefs are

those of uh you know deeply San Francisco or Berkeley um which is about as you get in America. Um so

that that that meant it wasn't a good forum for debate um because they suspended many people on the right including the president as as you may recall a sitting president which is

really unprecedented for president. Um

so I think we need to have a public square where there's uh true freedom of speech. Um and freedom of speech is

speech. Um and freedom of speech is Freedom of speech is is the bedrock of democracy. Um if there's not freedom of

democracy. Um if there's not freedom of speech, people cannot make an informed vote. And and if you cannot make an

vote. And and if you cannot make an informed vote, you don't have a real democracy. So that's the purpose of

democracy. So that's the purpose of acquiring Twitter was to try to uh bring it more to the center. Uh there have been no no leftwing voices have been

banned or or anything like that or or suppressed. Um but uh what we're trying

suppressed. Um but uh what we're trying to do is give equal weight to all parts of the country um so that they can be a public town square where people can

exchange ideas and hopefully not present violence. Um, and uh, I think that's

violence. Um, and uh, I think that's that's fundamental to uh, I think it's it's one of the like like you said, free speech is the

bedrock of democracy. It's why it's the first amendment because people came from countries where if they could be uh, killed or imprisoned what they said. And

in fact, this is happening all around the world as we speak, even in places like Britain.

Um, so that's a sort of anyway I I did it

because I I felt like u if it's the civilizational risk had to be addressed and and I mean what if if

America is not strong then what do businesses matter the the does America is the central pillar that

holds up a western civilization.

And if that pillar falls, everything falls.

So, so uh so you were one of the founders, the two founders of ChateBT

and you know Open AI and uh and you had a disagree and it was founded as a charity and it was your idea that you wanted to make sure that you know

freedom of speech and all the things that you deem important for good lives on our planet uh were followed safety

and uh uh the uh the other founder what he tried to do and did was accomplished is that he got control even though it

was your money and he got control and uh and you and he said Elon I'd like you to stay and uh you said I want to go I don't want to be a part of this and uh

and and he offered you some ownership and you said I don't want it and so here you walk away from an ownership of chat GBT.

So, you're obviously not doing all this stuff for money. I mean, you are, but I mean, it's that's not but I mean, if you if it were only about money, you would have never left something that's worth

500 billion dollars by itself. And so,

here you're forming this new entity uh Grock to accomplish what you wanted Chat GBT to accomplish. But you think that we

have an advantage in this because of the data, because of the compute, because of what? And what are you going to do with

what? And what are you going to do with this ultimately? So you you talk about

this ultimately? So you you talk about connecting physical worlds to digital.

What does that mean?

>> Yeah. Well, just going back to OpenAI for a second. Um, the reason I found it open AAI was because I was concerned based on my conversations with Larry

Page, who used to be a close friend of mine, um, that he was not sufficiently concerned about the dangers of AI.

Um this really came to a head when at my birthday party uh he in front of a large group of people called me a species

um for favoring humanity over computers.

Uh that I found that troubling.

Um [laughter] I was like Mary uh what side are you on?

Um sounds like you're on the side of the computers. Uh, but you really need to be

computers. Uh, but you really need to be on team humanity here, you know. Um, so,

uh, after that I was like, okay, this is it. We got to have some counterbalance

it. We got to have some counterbalance to, uh, Google. Um, because Larry doesn't seem to care if humans make it or not. Um, so I thought, what's the

or not. Um, so I thought, what's the opposite of Google? It would be an open-source nonprofit. And that's where

open-source nonprofit. And that's where the word open in OpenAI comes from. It

means open source.

and and then I I provided I provided all the money beginning um like what was the series ABC rounds and uh recruited the

key people like IAS and Sky and um taught them everything I know and uh you know I actually even got them the

deal with Microsoft with with Satcha initially to got I got Satcha to donate some time from Azure.

Um and for all that I did not seek any financial reward whatsoever.

Um the and the reason I actually turned down the offer for shares is because I mean I I felt like what do you shares and why like nonprofits supposed to have

shares at least last time I checked. Um

you know they're not based nonprofits are not supposed to be vehicles for self-enrichment. So that's why I turned

self-enrichment. So that's why I turned on the offer of shares because it it didn't seem morally or legally transible.

Um so then then with with with XAI we and we are starting late with XI you know we're only I don't know two and a

half uh years old basically uh and we're starting from behind um you know we are somewhat of an underdog

uh but they're pretty good with technology so I don't want pat myself in the back here, but I'm pretty good with

technology. Um, and um, and we are

technology. Um, and um, and we are advancing faster than any other way.

So, I think the the for technology ventures the winner ultimately is the one that is able to move the fastest.

So, so, so we think that so we're optimizing for the best technology and we're doing something different than others. Others in in a digital world and

others. Others in in a digital world and we're physical to digital with movements uh and uh visual and other people can't

match that and also we have the real-time data. What does that mean? Why

real-time data. What does that mean? Why

should we do better than everyone else?

Why are we going to win? And why are we going to at least be different than everyone else so we have a really strong business?

>> Well, first of all, I think in terms of being a strong business, actually, I'm not too worried about that that because um even even a small player that is

successful in AI will be worth a lot because they will contribute so much in productivity to the economy.

So and and so so it's actually pretty easy to achieve a not pretty easy but I mean it's it's not there there will be many

companies that are worth sustainably several hundred billion dollars sustainably. Um

sustainably. Um so then several question of like well how do we achieve the lead? Um that

comes down to three things.

Um are you able to attract the best talent?

Um are you able to bring the most amount of AI hardware online? Can you can you bring uh GPUs online faster than anyone else? And we've we've already

else? And we've we've already demonstrated that we can do that.

Jensen Monk himself said that um he was blown away by how fast X= Colossus data center.

>> Jensen said there's only one human on the planet who could have done that.

That's you.

>> Yes, he did say that. Um [snorts]

it's very very very kind.

>> You made us think about are you really human?

>> [laughter] >> I keep I keep telling people I'm an alien, but nobody believes me.

I mean, when I got my green card, it said alien registration part. So, I

mean, you know, I have have proof from the government. [laughter]

the government. [laughter] Um, so I guess I have to get registered.

[laughter] So, uh, let's say I've got some some, uh,

like relatively rare skills these days in America in terms of of of getting hardware built.

Um, if you look at the biggest successes uh, in manufacturing in America since World War II by far are Tesla and SpaceX.

Um yeah.

>> So uh so so to stay to stay stay on Grock for another minute. So the idea of

another minute. So the idea of connecting physical and digital is that that's different than digital digital figuring out who wants to buy what.

We're doing something entirely different.

Is that fair?

>> I wouldn't say we're doing something entirely different. We're doing uh we're

entirely different. We're doing uh we're doing some things that are same, some things that are different. Um, but it's if you're just saying like the the elements that define success for an AI

company are are going to be one, the talent to the hardware. How much AI hardware can you bring to bear? Um, that

that's actually a very big deal. Um, and

we've shown that we're the best at doing that at XAI.

And then third, unique access to data.

And for that, we've got the the X system, formerly the Twitter system, which is the by far the best source of real-time data in the world. So that

those are some pretty significant assets.

Um, and uh, and I think we're going to come up with some very innovative ideas. Um,

but I have more ideas in my head that I know what to do with, frankly. Um, so I think we'll make some moves that are not

on the chess board. Um, that people don't anticipate.

Um, some creative moves. Um, and and and like I said, so so and I should point out Grock right now actually um Debbie

um is still the smartest AI best of my knowledge. It's it's I recommend trying it out. Um croc for heavy is where we spawn several agents.

They they they work in parallel and they compare their output like a study group and give you the final conclusion. And

it keeps getting better. Um and now we've begun training on grog 5. Grog 5 I think will be the smartest AI in the

world by a significant margin on every on every metric without exception.

Um I might be wrong but I I think that will be the case and and that will be in Q1 sometime.

>> Gro five.

>> Yes.

And Grock 5 is the first time where I thought well we have a nonzero chance of achieving artificial general intelligence.

Um not that it's a high chance. I I I sort of I calculate like 10%. That's

what my biological neural network comes up with, which still means 90% chance that we don't clear. Um, but I've never thought that before. And so for the

first time, I think like, wow, this this this really could be general intelligence, at least a small chance.

Um, five will really be something special.

Um and and it'll be both extremely intelligence extremely intelligent and extremely fast.

Um so so one of the things that we're doing that I think is interesting is Groipopedia.

um which we're going to rename down the road to in to to be encyclopedia galactica uh in honor of Isaac Azimov

uh and um Douglas Adams who both mentioned that in the books um and the idea behind Galactica is to

create an open-source repository of all knowledge like a distillation of whole knowledge and and open source meaning anyone can

access it, anyone can use it and if if other people want to train on it, they can do so. Uh, and then we want to

create copies of this and distribute these copies throughout Earth. Uh, and

even put them on the moon and Mars and out in deep space. Um, as

in a way sort of a a modern day Library of Alexandria.

You know, it was the great tragedy that the Library of Alexandria burned down or or was burnt down. Um and um so in order to preserve this knowledge, I think we

we we want to literally etch it in stone and sort of stone stone like microf and and and distribute it widely. So in

a worst case scenario, future civilization can can see what we what what we learned and we pick things up from there.

>> So is there a major breakthrough that you can describe that allows us to do this with GR 5? Is it just speed? Is it

more compute and therefore we have more analys more uh you know information we can train on what is the breakthrough that allows us to uh to have this 10%

chance for AGI is there is there a breakthrough or is just speed and access to data not just but >> so there's a couple things it will be

the largest model to best man knowledge So this is this is a six trillion parameter model.

Um whereas Grock 3 and four are based on a 3 trillion parameter model.

Um moreover the six trillion parameters will have a much higher intelligence density per gigabyte than uh rock for.

Um I think this is an important metric to think about intelligence per gigabyte and intelligence per trillion operations. Um so we've learned a lot.

operations. Um so we've learned a lot.

Um so um the quality of the data that we're training on with GR 5 is mission error.

Um it's also inherently multimodal. So

it's text, pictures, video, audio.

Um it's um it's going to be much better at tool use

uh and in fact creating tools to be more effective at answering questions and understanding the uh its vision will be

uh extremely good. It'll have real be able to understand real time video which is I think a really fundamentally important thing that only other AIs can

understand real time video and I think if you can't do that which is humans can obviously do um you're you really can't achieve uh AGI

um >> by the way every one of these >> there's some special source items that I that there's some special source items that I I can't talk about in a public forum obviously you I can't give away,

you know, all all the secrets here and just between us and um but but but we have a few a few other

special things that are that are in the works um for Rock 5. So it's it's

it's it's really going to feel sentient.

>> So but there is no when we rock five and you're talking about the advances There is no limit. So when we're Grock five is better than Grock four which is

better than Grock three. So so it keeps going. So once we get to sentient levels

going. So once we get to sentient levels we go two sentient 5 sentient 10 sentient a million.

>> Correct.

>> The the sentience will grow. I mean

what's really mind-blowing is can how far can the sentience grow to your to your point? How far does it go?

Um I think it goes immensely far almost almost incomprehensibly far and almost does go

incomprehensibly far. Um,

incomprehensibly far. Um, so the like like we see a path to to

putting 100 gaws per year of solar powered AI satellite into orbit.

um and and having this be actually the lowest cost way to uh power and operate

u AI at a very large scale.

Um for reference, the United States consumes roughly 460 gawatt on average per year because the average power load in the US is 460 g.

>> The whole country. The whole country.

>> All electricity of all sources in the US. Yes. And you're talking about a

US. Yes. And you're talking about a hundred being added.

>> Well, roughly a quarter US electricity output.

>> Um, that's >> and we have a we have a plan mapped out to do that.

It gets crazy.

>> So, so there's what, a trillion planets like Earth in the uh world in the solar system, whatever you call it. A

trillion. And in that trillion, so big bang was 14 billion years ago. 13 half

billion years big. And planet our planet's only four billion years old. So

there must be other planets that are like ours with all the minerals, oxygen, hydrogen silicon carbon. Uh so life here has been

carbon. Uh so life here has been extinguished four times. And presumably

you feel that other places, other civilizations, other planets, then we'll get off of this uh ex exist. And are

they planets where the beings there are part human or part carbon and part metal?

>> Well, I think we'd like to find out. I'd

like to find out.

I mean, my philosophy is one of curiosity. I I I just want to know

curiosity. I I I just want to know what's you know what's going on in this universe. Um is the standard is the

universe. Um is the standard is the standard physics correct about the beginning of the universe? Is heat death the end of the universe? Are there other

alien civilizations? Can we talk to

alien civilizations? Can we talk to them? And and what questions should we

them? And and what questions should we be asking about reality that we don't know to ask? So that's my question is to expand consciousness to better

understand the universe.

So, so, so let's go to away from the universe back to Tesla again. And so you said that uh >> got [laughter] to be back on ground here,

>> back on ground. And uh so you said that our expertise is in making things better, faster, cheaper than other people. And when I started investing in

people. And when I started investing in Tesla, when we started investing in Tesla, you were telling us that uh that it's the machine that makes the machine that's most important. The machine that

makes so you went into machine learning, machine technology then, which is 15 years ago. And uh so and now uh the

years ago. And uh so and now uh the average car I think is 50 minutes uh or

50 seconds, 40 seconds, 60 seconds and we're now 35 seconds. Every 35 seconds the car rolls off and then you say that we're going to get down to 10 seconds

and you said it's a possibility we can go to five.

>> Five I I >> five seconds every car is rolling off a line. How's that happen?

line. How's that happen?

I I I certainly see a path to achieving um a roughly 5,000 millisecond sec time or 5 seconds. Um which is only that's

only really walking speed. That's like

sort of a fast walk. Um 1 m per second is a fast walk. The car is less than 5 m long. So um 5second cycle time the the

long. So um 5second cycle time the the cars will will be exiting the line at walking speed. So it's it's you can run

walking speed. So it's it's you can run away from them. It's not it's not going to be like they're coming out like bullets or something. [laughter]

So, but as a as a rough rule of thumb that's you know it's 10,000 minutes in a week. If you run 247 operation and you

week. If you run 247 operation and you get uh you know [snorts] let's say 10 cars per minute um you've got uh

100,000 cars a week.

So, so but the question is how come we're able to do this? Do other people just not care or they think that gee if I do something if I have this idea and

we try to implement it and it doesn't work then I'm not going to get promoted or I can get fired or I'll get blamed and if it works then I'm going have to do a lot of extra work that I wouldn't

know how to do if it didn't work. So why

don't other people have, you know, a mindset of making things better? Why the

J the Chinese, they've been great at copying us and in some instances probably even done better than us after they've copied for the first time. But

how how come do you think that other people haven't been able to make the advances we have? And even the guy from Ford just recently said, "Gee, those people in China wouldn't give us

compliments, but he said the people in and the Chinese have copied us. Uh those

people in China are doing great, which is really a compliments us because the reason they're doing great is because of us." So why don't other people do this?

us." So why don't other people do this?

Why doesn't he do that?

>> Um most companies are incrementalist.

um you know the management team wants to do I don't know 5% maybe 10% better than last year um as opposed to take big

risks that could fail.

Um obviously don't have a problem with taking big risks.

Yeah, I'd say >> um so the and I like to use the tools of physics to analyze things and

you know when I was in the factory one night I was looking at the factory and I was like you know this this could be much more efficient could be much

faster.

Um the I just trying to just rough math trying to calculate the volumetric efficiency of the factory. So if you divide the

factory into cubic meters and say how many cubic meters are doing something useful and it's a surprisingly small percentage.

The volumetric density is not very good.

Um and then the speed of the cars and the parts moving is quite slow.

um generally limited by the speed to which people can say attach brake lights or a seat or something like that. Um so

if you densify the factory and improve the blametric efficiency um which is helpful for for for production efficiency because and things

have less distance to move just like just like a chip you densify circuits on a chip make it more efficient. Think of a factory is a lot

efficient. Think of a factory is a lot like chip. Um, how do you make a chip

like chip. Um, how do you make a chip faster? Well, you you bring circuits

faster? Well, you you bring circuits closer together, make them smaller, and uh you increase the clock speed.

>> So, Robin told me that you told her once that I think of myself as a bit. And if

I'm a bit, how would I like to travel?

>> That makes sense.

>> Bit or an atom. If it's if it's the I'm software, I software or if I'm on a ship, I say, "What's the journey of the bit? B, what am I doing? And if if this

bit? B, what am I doing? And if if this journey doesn't make sense, I need to fix it. And if the journey of the atom

fix it. And if the journey of the atom in the factory doesn't make sense, I need to fix it.

>> So, when you say you're working on weekends, I spend all my Sundays working on a chip. What does that mean? What do

you do?

>> Uh, it's Saturdays, but uh some sometimes Sundays actually recent weekends been Sundays, too. Um

yeah, just the the AI5 chip, which is going to be a great chip. Um

you know, all all of T all of Tesla hinges on that chip. That's that's the chip that goes that go into our next generation of self-driving cars. And

it's also essential for the Optimus robot.

So that that chip program was in bad shape.

um it it wasn't it wasn't closing because that it's it's it's quite an ambitious trip design and and it really wasn't on a path to success. Um and then

we also had the dojo program which was doing it was also doing okay but but not on a path to be competitive with Nvidia.

So I I collapsed I collapsed the two programs into just one program which is to get everyone focused on AI5 chip which is essential um continue to use

Nvidia for training but we need the AI5 inference chip um which is it's a a very powerful chip but that but it's also a very low power chip so it's it doesn't

use a lot of power so it's performance for what is extremely good. Um we think you know it's probably going to be

at least two to three times better than Nvidia informs for what um at the at the inference level in the car and the robot and

you know I don't know 10% of the cost of an Nvidia chip something like that. So,

so the these are very important uh numbers to achieve and um I had to get the ship program back on track. So, put a immense amount of time

track. So, put a immense amount of time into it and and at this point I have the entire physical design of the chip laid out in memory. I can visualize the whole thing. But when you're when you're

thing. But when you're when you're talking about chip chip manufacturing, you say we might have to build some kind of a giant fab. Presumably, we would have a partner with TSMC or with

Samsung. We wouldn't do this by

Samsung. We wouldn't do this by ourselves. And those guys have been

ourselves. And those guys have been doing this for we would do it by ourselves. And and these are things that

ourselves. And and these are things that cost 20 billion, 30, 40 billion.

And where the people come from to do this? How could we not have partners?

this? How could we not have partners?

Is your thought to have a partner to do it by ourselves ultimate 10 years? You

don't there's not going to be enough chips in the world to accomplish what we're trying to do.

>> Yeah. First of all, I have immense respect for TSMC and Samsung and we we've we worked with both TSMC and Samsung

um at Tesla and at uh SpaceX. Um, so

TSMC and Samsung are great companies.

Um, and um, and and we want them to make our trip as quickly as they can and scale up to as high as possible volume

that that they're comfortable doing.

Um, but but uh it's it it doesn't appear to be fast enough.

Um, and um, you know, when I ask how long will it take to from start to finish to get a new chip fab built, they tell me five five years to get to blind

production. I'm like five years to me is

production. I'm like five years to me is an opportunity.

My my my timelines >> to me too, by the way, >> one year, two year, and at year three scale, it rails to infinity. So So I I

can't even see past three years.

Um, so then I'm like, damn, okay, this is um this is not going to be fast enough.

So now if they if they change their minds and say, "Yeah, they're going to go faster, they want to provide us with,

you know, 100 200 billion AI chips a year uh in the time frame that we need them.

That's great. But how could they not when they know that we're demand and we are going to use the product in our own product? How could they not want to be

product? How could they not want to be our supplier or how could they not want to be partners with us? I don't

understand.

>> No. Well, they are partners. Uh we're

using both TSMC >> I mean to really expand capacity tremendously. Why don't they do that?

tremendously. Why don't they do that?

From their standpoint, they are um because you'll be using TSMC Taiwan, TSMC Korea, TSMC Taiwan, TSMC Arizona,

Korea, Samsung, and uh the Texas back Samsung. So, we got four fab

Samsung. So, we got four fab um and um you know, from their standpoint, they're moving like lightning.

Um, I'm just saying that nonetheless it would be a limiting factor for for us that they're going as fast as they can from their standpoint. There's metal to

the middle. They've just never had

the middle. They've just never had someone with a company without sense of emergency. Uh,

emergency. Uh, so I that's like, man, it it might just be that the only way to get to scale at the

rate that we want to get to scale is to to build a a really big fat um and um

or or or be limited in output of optimized and self-driving cars by the AI chips.

>> Obviously, you're not going to Right.

Right.

>> Those are two choices.

>> Um to go to FSD. We don't have too much more time, but FSD uh full surf full self-driving. Um the uh you know, we're

self-driving. Um the uh you know, we're making these tremendous breakthroughs, it seems. And you said recently that you

didn't want to expand capacity for making cars until you were convinced that that was the case. You are now convinced that's the case. And again

here we're making these exponential leaps uh in make in in these cars. And

you said that a very large percentage of people who actually paid for full self-driving don't use it and have never tried it before.

>> Yes, it's pretty well.

>> Yeah. How Yeah. How we doing? How

>> something you want to try it type of thing?

>> It's amazing.

>> Yeah. Yeah. So, so we're we're now kind of insisting uh with customers uh for safety reason that we demonstrate full self-driving

because the numbers are unequivocal at scale that with with now 10 billion

miles driven that it's four times safer on full driving than than not.

So, so it's actually a big improvement in in safety. And so, at this point, we're we're just insisting that we at least demonstrate uh self-driving to

customers so they know how to use it and turn it on uh for safety reasons.

>> So, it drives full self-driving drives just like a person as opposed to having to code to uh look for every circumstance that would happen. and you

had a you know this this is a fire truck in front of us with a bicycle attached to it or someone walking his dog while he's driving along. They have to identify everything with a code. What AI

does, what we do is we as I understand it is to make sure that it's just like us.

Is that fair?

>> Yes. It it the key to achieving uh full self driving unsupervised full self driving much more safer than a human is improving the AI software in

the car. We're confident that the AF4 uh

the car. We're confident that the AF4 uh hardware that that's a chip that we designed uh currently made by Samsung uh is capable of achieving uh a safety

level unsupervised meaning if you're asleep in the car uh at least two to three times that of uh the average driver

maybe more. Um and then with AI5 we

maybe more. Um and then with AI5 we think can achieve probably a 10x uh improvement in safety.

Um so these these are really big deals.

I mean I think a one very profound things that I'm seeing here. Um and I really encourage people to go out there and try Tesla self-driving and and uh

see for yourself. And it's you can just go to any Tesla they'll show it to you.

You know it's not a secret. See,

everyone here, uh, you're benefiting if you try this and then buy it. But once you try it, you're going to buy it.

>> You should try it.

>> Um, and uh, so, so I want to close on what I mentioned this morning on CNBC

was that you're not doing this uh, so you can get enough money to buy a beach house.

You're you're do you're doing this even mine. [laughter]

mine. [laughter] >> Yeah, that's really >> But but but you're doing this because you know

uh Larry Pageige was right. You're

you're a species that you think humans should survive.

>> Yes. I'm pro I'm unabashically prohuman.

[laughter] >> I mean so you're you're spending actually Whether you're worth another trillion dollars or 400 billion, it doesn't really matter. What are you going to do

really matter. What are you going to do with all this money at the end? What

what's what's your plan? How do you want people to think about you?

>> Well, you know, mostly I need to have enough sort of ownership of the companies to be able to continue to direct their activities.

Um, but it's from a personal consumption standpoint.

Um, I I don't actually own any vacation homes. Um, and I just own one sort of,

homes. Um, and I just own one sort of, you know, mediumsiz house in Austin. Um,

so and and actually say a tiny house at Star Base, but I've >> I've seen that house. It's tiny.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah. I bought actually people like friends of mine have come to visit and they thought I was kidding. I'm like,

no, it's real. I bought it $8,000. But I

I've done a lot with the place.

artificial turf in front, little white pick of fence.

Yeah. So, um

but but like like I said with with AI and robotics there will be uh a benance world. So it's people actually in fact

in a benign scenario there's going to be interesting threshold that that AI passes and AI robotics pass where it's

run out of things to do for humans.

Literally it's it's completely uh satiated all human wants.

Um and then I guess it'll have to start thinking about what to do for itself or I don't know. Um

but I but you know overall I want to take the set of actions that expand consciousness into the future so that the scope and scale of

consciousness grows tremendously and that we explore other star systems like in Star Trek go places nobody's ever gone before

and find out if there are existing alien civilizations or maybe there's a long dead alien civilization and we can look through their groins and try to

understand what what they were like. um

and just generally understand the interview.

>> Where are you now? Right now,

>> I'm in I'm in Silic Valley.

>> Thank you very much for today.

>> Welcome.

Thank you for everything you've done for me, for our shareholders, and for humanity.

Thank you, Ron.