Sam Altman goes NUCLEAR (CODE RED)
By Matthew Berman
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Sam Altman Declares Code Red**: Sam Altman told OpenAI to go code red, meaning working to improve ChatGPT quality and the model race at the sacrifice of other products like ads and shopping. [03:15], [10:00] - **OpenAI's Garlic Model Counters Gemini**: OpenAI is developing a secret model called Garlic to counter Google's recent gains, performing well on evaluations compared to Gemini 3 and Anthropic's Opus 4.5. [08:22], [08:44] - **Scaling Over? Experts Say Yes**: Ilia Sutskever said the age of scaling is over, transitioning back to research with new ideas and algorithms, as just scaling up isn't working anymore. [01:21], [01:27] - **Google's TPUs Break Scaling Wall**: Google's Gemini 3 shows scaling is far from dead thanks to their custom TPU silicon, overcoming pre-training hurdles others hit since GPT-4o in May 2024. [02:38], [02:51] - **Day-to-Day Experience Trumps Intelligence**: For 99% of use cases, models are good enough; what matters is improving ChatGPT's speed, reliability, personalization, and day-to-day experience. [03:48], [04:18] - **OpenAI Supercharges Pre-Training**: Mark Chen says they've supercharged pre-training efforts with a superstar team, believing there's much room left despite claims scaling is dead, to go head-to-head with Gemini 3. [07:18], [07:40]
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Full Transcript
In response to Google getting all the love for Gemini 3 and their TPU architecture, Sam Alman has declared code red. And according to the
code red. And according to the information, they have a new secret model in the works called Garlic. All
right, let me take a step back. I just
made a video about how Google is probably the best positioned company to win artificial intelligence. They have
everything. They have a frontier model.
They have AI infrastructure. They have
custom silicon. They have a ton of revenue. They have a ton of great
revenue. They have a ton of great researchers and of course a massive amount of data. And so Google after last week has really planted their flag on
the AI hill. And it seems everyone was mogging Open AI. According to semi analysis, OpenAI's leading researchers have not completed a successful fullscale pre-training run that was
broadly deployed for a new frontier model since GPT40 in May 2024. That is over a year and a half ago, highlighting the significant
technical hurdle that Google's TPU fleet has managed to overcome. So apparently
we have hit a wall in pre-training scaling. Ilia Sudskver, OpenAI
scaling. Ilia Sudskver, OpenAI co-founder, current founder of safe super intelligence, one of the leading minds in AI, just did a podcast with Darkesh Patel in which he basically
said, "The age of scaling is over. We
are transitioning back to the age of research." Meaning, we need new ideas.
research." Meaning, we need new ideas.
We need new algorithms. Just scaling up what we're doing currently is not working anymore. Watch this.
working anymore. Watch this.
>> From 2012 to 2020, it was the age of research.
Now from 2020 to 2025 it was the age of scaling but now the scale is so big like is is it is the belief really that oh it's so big but if you had 100x more
everything would be so different. I
don't think that's true. Andre Karpathy
another famed AI researcher AI thought leader also said something similar on the Darkh Patel podcast and of course Yan Lun has been saying this for a
while. Large language models in their
while. Large language models in their current form are running out of space to grow. We need new ideas. This is
grow. We need new ideas. This is
becoming so prominent it's even becoming memes. Look at this. So here's Ilia.
memes. Look at this. So here's Ilia.
Scaling is over and LLMs are a dead end.
Ah, you're so sweet. And then of course Lun comes in. Scaling is over and LLMs are a dead end. Hello human resources.
And Lacun loved it. He thought it was hilarious. And you know what it really
hilarious. And you know what it really was cuz Lacun has been saying this for years, years and years. Then Google came out with Gemini 3. And Gemini 3 showed
scaling is far from dead. But maybe
there's something unique about Google, something unique about the way they're doing things or their architecture that allowed them to scale past what everybody else said was the wall. And a
lot of people are pointing to their TPUs. The TPU is Google's own custom
TPUs. The TPU is Google's own custom silicon to run artificial intelligence.
They've been building TPUs for years and years. And now the benefit of all that
years. And now the benefit of all that work is finally coming to fruition. And
they put out an absolutely massive model that performs incredibly well. And
people started counting out OpenAI. But
don't count them out quite yet. Sam
Alman just this week told OpenAI, "We are going code red." This means working to improve the quality of Chad GPT and
the grand model race at the sacrifice of progressing other products. According to
this Wall Street Journal article, Altman said OpenAI had more work to do on the day-to-day experience of its chatbot, including improving personalization features for users, increasing its speed and reliability, and allowing it to
answer a wider range of questions. Now,
what is interesting about this quote is they don't really talk about the quality. And to be honest, and I've been
quality. And to be honest, and I've been saying this for a while, the quality, the core intelligence of these models, they're there. we really for 99% of use
they're there. we really for 99% of use cases don't really need higher intelligence models. Now, of course, I
intelligence models. Now, of course, I will be happy if these labs continue to improve the quality of the models and continue to improve the intelligence of the models. Yes, of course. But what we
the models. Yes, of course. But what we need is all the things around it, the scaffolding, and that's what he's talking about here, the day-to-day
experience. And for 99% of use cases and
experience. And for 99% of use cases and 99% of users, the day-to-day experience is everything. the models are good
is everything. the models are good enough to serve the vast majority of most people's use cases. And so we're at this interesting time. Google finally
caught up. They released an incredibly good frontier model, beating OpenAI's models on many benchmarks. Their usage
is growing. They went from 450 million active users to just a few months later 650 million active users. We have OpenAI whose growth seems to be slowing down.
They are nearing or almost at a billion active users. But as I said in a
active users. But as I said in a previous video, Google is incredibly well positioned. They have diversity of
well positioned. They have diversity of revenue. They have a ton of cash on
revenue. They have a ton of cash on hand. They have multiple business lines
hand. They have multiple business lines that they can tap into to fund and lose money on the AI side of their business while they compete with OpenAI and
Anthropic. But again, don't count OpenAI
Anthropic. But again, don't count OpenAI out. And by the way, if you want the
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Now back to the video. Mark Chen, chief research officer at OpenAI, just did a podcast in which he said pre-training specifically supercharging our pre-training efforts for the last half
year. Um, and I think it's a result of
year. Um, and I think it's a result of some of those efforts uh together with Jakob focusing and building that muscle of pre-training at at OpenAI. uh you
know crafting a really superstar team around it, making sure that all of the important areas and aspects of pre-training are emphasized. Um that's
what creates the artifacts today that feels like we can go headto-head with Gemini 3 easily on on pre-training.
>> And so there it is. He explicitly said it. Yes, we have some tricks left. And
it. Yes, we have some tricks left. And
yes, we're forming and continuing to build out our superstar team to focus on pre-training to specifically compete with Google. He didn't mention
with Google. He didn't mention Anthropic. He didn't mention XAI. He
Anthropic. He didn't mention XAI. He
mentioned Google by name. Um, we think there's a lot of room in pre-training.
You know, a lot of people say scaling is dead. Um, we don't think so at all. I
dead. Um, we don't think so at all. I
think um it's a little bit of an alpha for us because we think there's so much room left in in in pre-training and and I think as a result of these efforts you know we've been training much stronger models and that also gives us a lot of
confidence carrying into you know Gemini 3 and other releases coming this end of the year >> and so there it is chief research officer at OpenAI saying pre-training is not dead RL was incredibly important we
spent time on it we maybe had a little bit of muscle atrophy on the pre-training side but now we are back we are back to pre-training and we are going hard and they have a model
cooking. Now that might be what the
cooking. Now that might be what the information just reported on. Let's take
a look. So according to the information this article just came out, OpenAI is developing garlic, a model to counter Google's recent gains again on the
pre-training front. Google really just
pre-training front. Google really just set the industry ablaze on how much they were able to scale up pre-training and have this incredible model. Now, garlic
is the counterargument to Google's Gemini. Last week, OpenAI's chief
Gemini. Last week, OpenAI's chief research officer, Mark Chen, told some colleagues about the new model, which was performing well on the company's evaluations, at least when compared to Gemini 3 and Anthropics Opus 4.5. Now,
remember, it might be performing well on the benchmarks, and they might not even be done cooking it. It just might be a checkpoint that they're testing against, and that just makes it super exciting.
Of course, the pre-training might plateau, but it is exciting nonetheless.
And as part of Sam Alman's code red inside OpenAI, OpenAI has a new reasoning model it is preparing to launch that is ahead, quote, ahead of Gemini 3 and OpenAI's internal
evaluations, Altman told colleagues Monday. And we might get a December
Monday. And we might get a December surprise that might mean GPT 5.2 or even 5.5 by the end of this year. But Garlic
is different from this other model codenamed Charlotte Pete which has had a lot of rumors circling around it lately.
But Garlic incorporates bug fixes that the company used in developing Charlotte Pete during the pre-training process.
And according to the Kobaysi letter, internal memos show that OpenAI is pausing projects like ads and shopping to focus on improving Chat GPT's performance. So kind of glad to hear
performance. So kind of glad to hear that. I don't need ads. I want them to
that. I don't need ads. I want them to focus on everything else that makes the experience of chat GPT better. And let
me talk about that for a moment. Now, a
handful of people that I've spoken to recently, including Jonah from my own team, has said that they have almost entirely switched to Google Gemini, but they're not the normal user, and I'm not
the normal user. When we're talking about the average general AI user, they don't care about these incremental improvements in the core intelligence of the model. What they want, as I said
the model. What they want, as I said earlier in this video, is the best overall experience. And right now, Chad
overall experience. And right now, Chad GPT is still at the frontier. Google's
Gemini is incredible. And of course, because they have distribution with Google search, they are going to continue to grow their user base and share of the market. But for most
people, Chad GPT was their first exposure to AI and likely will just continue to be. There would have to be major issues with chatbt for the
majority of people to want to switch off of it. Remember chatbt is the verb
of it. Remember chatbt is the verb similar to how Google was with search.
Go Google it. Well, with AI, the verb is still chatbt and the chatbt experience is still killer. And so even though we
have some people at the frontier of usage of these models of these products switching to whichever one is best at the moment the vast majority of the
population who uses AI won't be doing that. Don't count OpenAI out. They
that. Don't count OpenAI out. They
definitely have increased competition in this moment. But you know what? You know
this moment. But you know what? You know
who benefits from all of this cutthroat competition is us, the consumers of these products and services. If you
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