Sharpen Your Trading Skills w/ U.S Investing Champion Oliver Kell

all right welcome back everybody long time no see about an hour ago um we got a very special guest tuning in today uh

we've been hyping this up since Friday um I'm pretty pump for it um he was a winner of the 2020 us investing

Championship putting up 941 per returns in a single year couldn't hit a thousand that's a shame uh welcome Oliver Kell here onto the workshop uh just wanted to

say we really appreciate you coming on hop with us taking time out of your day um so I think we're just going to start here you got a brief PowerPoint ready for us just kind of explaining what the basics of your system and whatnot yeah

so well one thanks for having me guys I appreciate it happy to be here and uh yeah I'll just kind of my my my strategy is pretty simple it's more the implementation of it that you know is

where the skill is um so I'll kind of run through that real quick and and then I can answer any questions or look at the market or or whatever you guys want to do um but I mean I I named it the

cycle of price action uh just because I [Music] mean as I show it to you or you know it seems like you guys kind of already know what it is you'll realize like it is

just like a cycle up and down you know throughout the year um but basically the simplest way I can describe what I do is like I have a moving average CR

crossover system but I'm looking to anticipate changes in the trend via like price structure um which I'll which I'll go over that a little more here in a

second and then there's you know specific areas that I'm looking to execute um so I think a couple times during each Trend you get lowrisk areas

where you can you know risk a little bit and hopefully make you know many multiples of that um and then also as you as you trade it more and you know

I'm constantly getting better at myself you know you can kind of understand where you're at in the cycle and hopefully that can help you you know uh sell into strength or just

understand you know when you want to be less aggressive or or more aggressive um but so that's that's a a quick intro on it um but basically the cycle price action for me it's an objective overlay

to keep you on the correct side of the market um in a green light environment a market where you want to be long or looking for Longs at least um you're just trading above the moving averages

or or the price structure the the higher highs and higher lows are are setting up to at least take out the moving averages that would be the first time I would I would look for a long and then a red light environment would just be your

below the moving averages you either want to be short um or in cash and then you want to adjust your Market exposure

exposure and aggressiveness based on where the market is in its cycle um so for example near the beginning of a trend near what I here let me go to the next slide

um all right so here I'll run through this so I used the 10 and the 20 period moving average and you know I use the the red moving average is the Ten and I use the exponential moving

average uh basically when I first started trading I I prop traded day traded and these these guys who followed

used the 1020 EMA on the intraday chart they actually used you know the 1020 5200 SMA on the daily chart um and not

even then but a couple years later after like trading for years and winning and losing and and never really truly figuring it out I just kind of decided

you know what if I use the 1020 EMA on the daily chart and I I've been using it ever since to you know there's no fine story on why I came up with it I just

started doing it and it worked for me and I and I haven't looked back I've constantly just tried to refine it but basically the way the Cycle Works is the beginning of an what I call an up cycle

starts when you have what's a reversal extension um you can essentially think of that as capitulation so you're having a down cycle the Market's trading down

you know the volume starting to increase and some point you know you just the market blows out capitulation occurs and

you rip back and really the Target off of a reversal extension if you were to trade it would be the 20 EMA um and this is fractal so it occurs

on all time frames you know whatever you guys like to trade my main core trading time frame is the daily chart but it occurs on all time frames um and then

the so the volatility between the extension and what I call the wedge pop is pretty extreme so sometimes it'll like rip back but then it'll like tank

back down and sometimes it can take a couple weeks for you know the market to contract and the price action to tighten

up and then you get the wedge pop where you're basically breaking out of this contraction in price and you're in you know doesn't have to necessarily a move back through the moving averages that's

kind of what everybody thinks it's really based on the price bars and breaking through this contraction it just often happens to be through the moving averages and that is really the

first time where I'm looking to kind of get swing long it's not that I won't play the extensions sometime I sometimes I will um if I if I see it perfectly but

I've learned via having a big gain and then getting you know giving it back that it's often better for me to just kind of sell the extension out and just

wait for this entry here because at this entry is when the market starts to trade more uniform and better and as a swing Trader at least for me um because you

know there's tons of different types of Swing trading it's easier for me to hold a position when volatility is lower um so we get the wedge pop that's kind of the First Time I Look to get La the

market and then I think the second best time to get along the market is when I have What's called the EMA crossback so you you pop up and and hopefully you extend I mean the more you extend higher

the better it just means that the Stock's more powerful um inevitably you will always come back and test into the 10 or 20 period moving average you know

sometimes it might be the 20 sometimes it might be the 10 it just kind of depends on the personality of the stock um but that area is the the next area to

try to get long a stock and I would say these two are the two optimal entries on a stock to get long um reason being is because hopefully they're near the the

the true turn higher and and you have more potential Trend to catch um then from there you know we go up and and you'll you know if we continue higher you'll have consolidations they let the

moving averages catch up and go higher I call those Basin breaks um you know you can have you know in a good Trend you'll you'll usually have like two and when I say Trend I'm more talking intermediate

term you know maybe like six to 12 weeks or something like that um and you know in a really good Market you can get many Basin brakes which is you know really

what we're looking for but you know just in my experience you usually get like two on the average stock and then you'll have what I call an exhaustion extension where you basically extend away you know

from the 10day and volume heats up the Chasers are coming coming in and if you see that correctly you know ideally you want to

sell into that or or maybe piece out a portion of your position into that um but the key is you don't actually know this is an exhaustion extension until

it's confirmed by the wedge drop um so the wedge drop is basically I'll move over here you have the exhaustion extension you trade back down to the moving averages and then usually you

kind of wedge up on a lower volume you know kind of the late people will start saying oh we're we're holding the moving average and we you know we're we're

going to head back up but the but the we exhausted ourselves here and the volume will show that and there's usually light volume here kind of wedging action if any of you guys know what that is and then the volume will come back in and

we'll drop back down through the moving average and to me that's confirmation that this truly was an extension um so the way I think about it

ideally we set sell the extension perfectly but you know that's just not realistic that we're always going to be perfect um I do try to sell into

strength um I think that's key but if you miss it you know this move right here is is your you know that's your safety net

like hey you didn't sell it perfect but you know you got to go now you got to get out and then this is also when you would look to get short so you'd look to

get short here or on this crossback um I don't like to short ba like you know I will take swing trades off these Basin breaks to the long side usually I'm looking to sell them you know after a

couple days versus hold for the whole Trend just because they're later buys I don't look to do that on on the short side um just just because I've done it

before and gotten smoked um and you know typically the market has more upwards flow obviously year like 2022 was was more downwards um but even in those

downwards markets uh you know the trends down are typically not as long as like an uptrend in a good Market in my experience um and

then you do it all over again you have a reversal extension and you start a new Up Cycle um and really is what I try to do is I want to pair up the weekly

because this cycle occurs on the weekly and the daily and if I can get involved you know let's say we're having a wedge pop on the weekly

and you know that might be like a crossback on The Daily or something you know that's a great situation for me because I hopefully can catch a long move on the weekly and you know manage

it on the daily um so in a good weekly Up Cycle you know you may get two or three daily upcycles um and I trade off the daily

but if we're in a weekly upcycle like I'm just going to go to cash here I'm not going to look to short I'm basically just going to step aside and let the stock reset and then I'm going to try to get back on

board um you know once we turn back up so I'm trying to marry up the time frames um and you know how do I kind of implement it all so so sorry I gotta read these slides more because I'm

basically already going through this the higher time frame for me is the weekly or the monthly so I'm basically using the more the weekly but I do look at the monthly to see the complete picture you

know how extended is the stock you know typically I want to move to be some where in in relation to the 10we moving average when it starts um for no other

reason than if we're not near the 10 week it's going to be harder to catch an extended move um the tough thing there is when you get a big earnings gapper

you know it'll look a little extended um so like how do you play that you know it's not it's not perfect but these so these are general rules um are we breaking out of a large multi-month base

you know you know if we're breaking out of a multi-month base you got your better shot for for a big move than if you're trading you know some like you

know five day bull flag that's extended from the 10 week you know that might even be a trap um so I'm looking at the weekly or monthly first and then I

manage my trades on The Daily combined with the 65 minute chart um so you know I'm looking at the daily bars and the daily moving averages the 10day and the

20day um but then I'm watching the actual price structure you know the higher highs and the higher lows on the

65 minute time frame and I will keep the 65 minute 21 EMA or 20 EMA doesn't really matter and the equivalent of the

FED day on my 65 minute chart and a lot of the time I'm ideally you know if a market stretches up I I'll kind of wait and I'll buy that pullback um and try to

buy the higher low in an uptrend on the 65 minute um and then you know from an actual straight up execution standpoint these kind of overlap because I am

looking at the 65 minute a lot but I I use the 30 minute and same deal I put the daily 5 102 EMA on the 30 minute and I'll look for reversal bars off the 10day or the

20-day um stuff like that and then there are situations you know like if I'm looking for a breakout where the daily looks great and I'm looking for a breakout and I think it might happen on

the open you know I will zoom into the 10 or the 15 minute and I use pivot Points um to try to buy support and I I'll keep the vwap on there in the intra

20 EMA um but I would say more I'm focused on you know the 30 minute and trying to buy into these moving averages or the 65 and less in the select

scenarios where you know I just know hey this thing might go I I got to be keeping an eye on it and and often it's on more of the open than than any other

time um but the key is for me you know I don't create trades on the lower time frame so everything I do is driven by the weekly and the daily um you know if a stock looks nice on the five minute

you know I've been in chat rooms where people say oh there's like a a flag on the five minute you know some sometimes I'll look at that comment and I'll go look at the daily chart and and I'll

just say oh like there's nothing there um and it might work but it's just not a trade for me because the you know it's extended on The Daily or something like

that so the weekly and the daily Drive everything for me um and then so some advantages to what I do you know it's it's it's reasonably objective I would

say I can tell you there's certainly plenty of room to screw it up um but you know you're either above or below the moving averages so like I see all these people uh

you know I was literally short the market into the low in October and then I was pretty heavily long October 31st and November 1st and I was real bearish

on October 26 that's actually when I covered and it ended up being the low um I had no idea it was going to be the low at all um but we were below the moving average and then when we got above it I

was bullish like like it's really that simple uh you know I don't I don't like right now everyone says there's going to be a re s like like sell the

market you know one of my sayings is I've never seen a downtrend above the 10day and I've never seen a uh an uptrend below the 10day so you know if

we're above the moving averages you know typically I'll like the market um and if we're below them I won't um and then it's fractal so you can use this strategy you know you could put a

10-month on the monthly chart and go look at it you'll you'll realize that you know the Market's respond on the monthly um the weekly the daily the 65 minute whatever you want um you're just

going to get more signals the lower the more signals and more fake outs the lower and lower you go on your time frame right you're going to get more entries on a five minute but you're

going to get more shakeouts than a monthly where you you know you might get one signal every couple years um then price is the number one indicator so the cycle provides a framework to analyze

the only thing that pays which is price um I'm typically always buying strength I'm just adjusting my time frame to get there um so you know maybe we're pulling

back on the daily but I'm finding you know a reversal bar and buying strength on the 30 minute or something like that um and then you know a lot of people

because I you know I'm influenced I would say influenced by you know the Can slim method or whatever William O'Neal really I just use charts and I pay attention to earning and sales growth um

but a lot of those guys use the 50-day and they say like oh like you know no one can make money using the 10 20-day moving average um but really for me if a

stock can't hold the 10 or 20day moving average like I don't want to trade it because I'm not trying to own like 50 stocks like a mutual fund you know I'm

typically gonna own five to 10 stocks you know in a really good Market maybe like 12 but above there I actually start selling stuff because I you know don't want to own that many stocks so why

wouldn't I try to trade the 10 stocks that can hold the faster moving average that move quickly you know like like look if you're trading under 25 million

bucks like you're small you're like a small Trader and you can get in and out of stocks you know

fairly easily so you might as well just focus on getting in you know what you deem to be the best five or 10 stocks um and then it can also help you spot

relative strength so for example with the markets the index has moved where they've moved now you know if some stock is like only just taking out its 10 20 period moving average right now you know

that's sort of a red flag to me you know do I really want to be in that stock um maybe you know maybe I'm not saying

definitely no but it might be a lager um and then there's no excuse to ever chase you know if you miss that wedge pop you don't want to chase it you just want to

be patient wait for the crossback um it'll come eventually um so there's always another setup so some disadvantages you know

there's whips off potential and that you know I'm using the faster moving averages uh I sort of just think there's whips out potential because we're trading stocks

um and you know it's just kind of part of the game um and then it's Trend following in nature so you know in a range-bound market where there's no

Trends um you can get more false signals or really like because I used the faster moving averages I sort of think when markets are moving up and down I can

still catch trades it's just it's way smaller trades you know because things obviously don't extend um so you know you could maybe go down and trade the

cycle on a lower time frame like the 65 minute or something like that um which I don't like switch my whole setup or anything but you know year like 2022

where obviously the trends weren't as there were a lot of great Trends but they were shorter you know that's really where that 65 minute 20 EMA or 21 EMA

you know was really powerful because the the trends just weren't as great um and then you know you could view this as a disadvantage it's discretionary

execution um I think this could also be mut is a major advantage um you know kind of once you know what you're doing um but you know it certainly leaves the door open to emotional mistakes or if

you have the incorrect analysis of the market um which we all do for sure at times that's why we use stops um but you

know I don't know people people think discretionary is like red flag you know maybe um and then it's not complete so you know I utilize a a lot of other

tricks you know I like to take advantage of relative strength for stock selection um I love big gaps so you know I I I uh

identify a lot of my stocks via massive volume um what I call Bull snorts um which often have a big gap so

you know that's I I I think that's probably more important than any set of fundamentals out there um but you know things called like that I call a wick

play or inside bars obviously support resistance I use a lot of kind of candle patterns especially on those 30 minute charts and I'm you know buying reversals

uh volume for me you know I don't know how anybody trades without volume it's just uh you know I could throw out all the moving averages and everything but I I definitely could not do what I do

without you know interpreting volume it it really tells the story um and then you know fundamentals so proper stock selection uh you know I look for stocks

that have big earnings big sales I think a lot of these Tech type stocks that I trade the revenue growth is actually almost the most important thing um but

really a lot of uh moves in stocks are they have a huge volume signature near the beginning of the move on the weekly bar so so just like a huge just punch of

volume and that's how I find a lot of my stocks often that's because there is a big upside earning surprise or there's some change in the underlying

fundamentals um but I but I actually I actually think that uh a lot of the times I'm on stocks and then you know I do have software that I can look at the fundamentals and I'll go look at the

fundamentals and I'll say oh like that was a good earnings report but you know that's not actually why I got on it but it's you know it's a nice thing to see

um but then mostly the well-trained eye so you know I'm sure some of you guys are learning to trade or you know some of you probably trading a traded a long time but um I think the key to learning

to trade is you know kind of getting SE time um getting in the game making trades screwing things up uh you know

studying your mistakes learning from it um there's just no replacement for that there's no strategy or anything that can replace SE time um so that'd be my

recommendation to anyone learning the trade is you know get in the game um so that's you know I guess if you want any

more info I wrote a book Kel trading.com it basically goes over this strategy um and then I write a newsletter at the swing report.com where I you know just

try to identify opportunities that I'm looking at and then those Trader line guys I did a master class with them which is

basically a very indepth uh you know review of the strategy you know kind of how I look at weekly daily charts I go over you know all these different types

of things that I use which I have all that stuff in the book too but you know it's more in depth so um if you want to look at any of that stuff that's there

but I would I would emphasize and you know really the number one thing that all you should do if you're trying to learn is you know figure out a strategy whether it's something along the lines

of what I do or or whatever else it may be and go through you know I I like to trade more liquid stocks go through you

know the big liquid winning names of the last 20 30 years you know the apples the Amazon B was a big stock when I was

coming up um and go through them bar by bar and you know mentally trade them you know really put in the work and I mean I'm talking I've done this going back 20

30 years on on many names and you know I use one note snip things out put it in a folder you know you really got to put in that work and and try to master whatever

your strategy is and get in the mental reps um there's there's just no replacement for that you know that's what's going to give give you conviction in real time um when you're actually

looking to trade the market awesome awesome thank you um tsdr you had a good question you were kind of running by me at the beginning of this uh to ask for

Oliver hey hey unmute your mic he's got the book there by the way here's here's the book go uh go snag it up uh on on

Kel trading on his websites on his website um it's already great I imagine I'll go through this you know 10 to 12 times uh by the end of the year already

um so I know you've you've got some experience early on on the institutional side of trading

um as you know all of us are you know small fish as you alluded to what are what are some big things that you learned there and and how critical was

that experience of the institutional side of trading for you so here I'll give you I'll give you like very quick high levels so my background

is I uh my dad was a market maker so they they uh supposedly they still exist but uh the way I think of what a market maker is is the guys on the floor that

yelled all day you know I'd go down to the floor I grew up in the Bay Area and you know we'd have a half day from school you'd go in there's paper all over the place like it was amazing um

and so trading was you know sort of the family business sort of I guess you know well it was like that's what my dad did

um but uh so I actually uh I never wanted to trade because uh you know just for other reasons but uh I kind of got

into it when I graduated college I I just like wasn't able to get a job and you know I don't know I ended up uh taking

some money going to New York and I I put up money at you know what I would consider to be kind of a a bucket shop in modern day standards where you put up

like five or 10 grand and they say oh like we're gonna let you trade our money or whatever but really they're just leveraging you up and they're making like a penny a share on all your

commissions and they don't teach you anything and it's it's really a crapshoot um but you know when you're 22 and you read a couple trading books you think you're going to like take over the

world um so I did that and I lost all my money which was like five grand so it wasn't like a a massive deal um but it was a big deal for me at the time that

was like a lot of money for me um but you know I kind of had to go home regroup started you know studying the market a little and I ended up getting a

job at like a a more legitimate it was still like a prop firm but it was basically a group of prop Traders you know small there was like

seven or eight of us um that you know they had raised some money and we were basically a hedge fund um and we actually did International Arbitrage which is much more complicated you know

we would trade stocks between Australia London and the us we like I traded the tsunami open for Japan which was insane um you know so I got some

experience doing that but I was an assistant for these two guys um and I had one Mentor who who still trades to this day who who who was a real swinger

I mean he he took some shots and I mean he would really make a lot of money and he would lose a lot of money and then I had another Mentor who was extremely

conservative I mean he would basically make money every single day I mean he was he was he was really good but he basically traded this one stock called

newscore which is you know you know they're like they own the murdocks they own like Fox and all that stuff but it trades between the Australia in the US and I mean this stock like barely even

moved but he would basically take a percent out of it like every single day of the week it was it was unbelievable and so I got to see just like two totally different personalities two

totally different ways they approach the market um and the conservative guy who basically made money all the time he actually doesn't trade

anymore um and the guy who was a real swinger uh fund ended up going under and I'm not going to say it was all his fault but I ended up having to trade him

out of like a significant amount of positioning in between three countries in the 2011 taper tantrum uh and so I

kind of started following him initially and I uh I got into a hole which I was fortunate to work for a place that actually took some risk on me you know I think I was down like 60

Grand or something like that which for them was like not that much money but again for me you know like I was like 23 I was like oh man I'm down 60 Grand how am I ever going to make this back um and

I found this guy on Twitter at the time by the name of Trader Florida who I still to this day I mean I I sort of think he's probably like the greatest

Trader I've ever seen um and he's no longer really on Twitter anymore but he would literally do these short videos like

every single night and he like taught me how to read volume um and I mean he changed the whole game for me he would call turns in the market like

in advance based on the volume I mean he'd be like saying the Market's going to Bott him you know right around here and people would be like talking crap to him that it would literally bought him like two days later it it was

unbelievable like he was unbelievable um but so I learned a ton from him um specifically and that's really what kind of got me on the right track um I actually like started trading really

well started learning chart patterns you know bull Flags descending channels whatever it may be um and I traded my way out of my hole and I was making you

know pretty good money and then unfortunately the fund went under um which you know I was I was actually I I had my second biggest day the day we went under but you know I was the

smallest book so it didn't didn't really help out all that much um but from there I got a job at bti which is a you know I don't know if I'd say big but like yeah

I think pretty big institutional trading firm and I worked on what was called an Outsource desk so I don't know if any of you guys know what sales trading is but sales Traders are guys that basically

they're hunting for order flow all day you know so they've got a client um that's like a big hedge fund or mutual fund or something maybe they want to buy like a million shares of Apple like

whole different scale from from what we're doing um and they need you know I guess Apple's not the best example because you can go clip off a million shares of Apple no problem but you know maybe a million

shares of you know some like midcap stock where maybe it t would take a couple weeks to buy that and you know they're trying to go find a seller and pair them up um so we had a lot of sales

Traders but then I worked on what was called an Outsource desk where literally we had clients who they didn't want to hire a Trader internally at their fund

so they outsourced it to us and I knew their positions you know I knew the size of their positions and I just executed their orders all day um you know

literally there was a stock which which like I can't say but a well-known name that went had ipoed in like 2011 or 12 or something like that I literally

bought like a 100,000 to a million shares a day of this stock every single day for like I don't know six to nine months I mean we bought like 15 20% of

the company and Via doing things like that I did start to understand kind of how bases were built you know bigger bases like like big weekly bases where

the Stock's selling off and this guy's buying like a million shares and it's tanking and I'm sitting there like what's this guy doing but then over time

you know he he soaks up a lot of the supply and then next thing you know it's breaking out you know like three months later and he's pulling all his shares from the short sellers you know he's

pulling his shares and it's creating like a big short squeeze you know I got to see uh pulling his shares from a locate so guys that were short like basically had to cover you know there were games like that some of these big

fund managers would use um so I got to see some of that stuff um which was informative but but more than that you know I was trading my personal account

the whole time and so kind of like what I said earlier uh where it's all about kind of getting screen time you know I was getting screen time I was I was getting exposure to the market I was

making mistakes um I was I was losing money I was making money um that's really probably what the key was when I worked

there uh more than any of the actual institutional type stuff um so I wouldn't say there's anything in particular like every now and then I see something where I just kind of like know

what's going on you know when I see a big big print hit the tape or something I just kind of know like hey that's going to be the low of the day and I'll like get long which there's some of that

type of stuff that that maybe maybe I don't uh maybe I don't notice but is there in in my subconscious um but I also think one of the other major things

that you should know is that I think most hedge funds are just as bad if not worse than most retail so like everybody talks about like the

smart money or whatever I think some hedge funds are like the dumbest money that ever existed um so you know I wouldn't put them too high on a pedestal um I guess is one of the things I

learned you know if some hedge fund guy goes on TV and says he's long as stock like I'm just as likely to think oh man this thing's probably topping out than

than to think it's like going higher so you know that'd be one of the big big big takeaways is just a lot of these guys have no idea what they're doing um so you know that's kind of My overall

background a little long- winded but if you have any more questions there just let me know yeah so um I got one and this is a little more maybe Market related so um

mainly just like you know where's your focus in the market right now uh into the new year um and especially you know if we do you know if we were to pull back and reset on some things you know

where would you know majority of your focus so here let me uh so here's the weekly you guys can see my screen here yep you're good so here's

the weekly this is the daily this is 195 minute and this is the 65 minute down here and so I'll look at the NASDAQ so

the NASDAQ for me is kind of the the base index if you will um that I look at because I trade a lot of tech stocks and so bigger picture

kind of how I see things is we had a three-wave down bare Market which a lot of times Corrections or bare markets will happen in you know moves of three

and then we broke this descending trend line we came up and when we back tested the 20 week here um you know a lot of people used the 30 week I I just keep it

consistent and I use the 10 20 week but if you go study kind of the 2000 to 2003 Market or if you go study after 08 you know that bare Market once we back

tested this 20 we and held it we actually traded to all time highs in in both of those instances which are two of the bare markets I've studied most extensively um so really for me this is

kind of when the market kind of started you know different environment than obviously this and most of this was

led by large cap stocks so Nvidia really it's been the best stock for me all year I'm still trading it um mainly just because Trader Florida taught me you

know never leave your win man you know your number one stock and it's been my number one stock but it kind of LED this move and it was you know the best kind of high beta name to trade but a lot of

the other names that did well were like you know Microsoft through here Apple through through here Apple actually you want to see relative strength go look at this chart versus

the indexes during this bare Market it it held up ex extremely well um but now we had this correction right where you'll notice we had three waves down

and actually I sort of thought right in here when we resisted here there was potential this was going to look like kind of the 08 bear where we rolled back

over um but that's another story um you'll notice we had huge expansion bars here we were really stretching higher and then as we got deeper and deeper

into this correction um you know things were pretty tight right it's not like we were expanding down and then it's what ended up happening so so like I said literally I covered all my shorts like

right down in here like literally 343 I think I posted it on Twitter and the only reason I covered is just kind of like what I said earlier you know I I just don't like to be short as much so

the only reason I covered is because like i' made like pretty good money and you know seemed like as good a time as any more more than anything else um but

I was still I was more looking for us to kind of rally up into the moving averages and and get faded again um but it's what happened on this day in particular you know we were kind of

wedging up and we traded down and we held this support area so let me I guess I can't show you my 65 but if I could you could really see

it but it's really this bar right here where we traded up we got rejected we traded up and we came down and you know if you think about it when I talk about price structure we trade it up we trade it down we trade it up we trade it down

we trade it up we Trad it down and it started to look more like kind of an a I'm not going to call it an uptrend if you will but you know like the structure

was starting to change so I actually got long the market on this day after that happened and then I got really long on the follow through so this to me is kind of a mini what I call a mini base and

when we broke out here that's where I got a long signal on the market um and I wasn't sure right here but then when we had had this reconfirmation you know I I

I I got even longer um and really I I was pretty heavily invested by about here but I was in stuff like Nvidia that I'd been trading I was actually short

Nvidia into these lows and flip long um and it did really well through here but as we started to get up into here into this area and all through this

consolidation is what we started to see is these more kind of small midcap names uh start to take the Baton and often in like year one or I I'll call it move one

of a bull market you're in a lot of big cap names and that's really what's doing well and then in the second move it's more small cap type stuff um so right

now I think like small midcap areas are what you want to be focused on and I I'll give you a look at some some names I'm talking about um but basically when

we broke out of this you know wedge or yeah like a descending wedge um you know it really looks like a

uh big cup and handle and you know we look very good here I think the Russell also is somewhat participating

in that we got a buy signal and we're up into this resistance where it wouldn't surprise me if we kind of chopped around a little bit here um but I was impressed today how we didn't give too much back I

I still think we're going to keep keep chopping here you know if we could chop you know do something like this that'd be ideal um but if we can

take at this level here on the Russell eventually you know maybe maybe in a week or two or something you know I don't know you know I think there's a

chance that we can really start to see this more small midcap stuff uh really really perform um so kind of some names you

know I've been long I've been I've this has been my best name you know I was actually a little late to this but I got in this in here and I sold it here and

then I bought it back you know in in here and I'm I'm kind of sitting with this I think Bitcoin looks pretty good

um as far as what it did today it it you know traded up um and held the 20-day today so I actually think Bitcoin sort of looks like it's going to break out

again here and I really like coin in particular because I mean look I know everybody trades mea and Riot and these things

look great um but you know I I sort of think Mary in particular is a little bit sketchy Riot had a buy area for me today

but but so coin is really where where I can put you know a good chunk of money and I think it's kind of the institutional favorite I think if you kind of look at this whole Bitcoin

exchange type space or or whatever you want to call it obviously the SBF thing you know they were the biggest exchange and they're out of the game and then I

don't know all of them but you know Kraken or binance you know binance seems to have been the the other number two guy um they're all gone and I don't think coin's going anywhere I think

coin's legit um so I think there's a chance for this to kind of continue to to dominate take share I mean it's where all the institutional money going into

Bitcoin has their Capital you know like black rock that their money's at coinbase is my understanding um so we're a little extended into this broadening

line here that's actually why I sold here but we're holding the 10day so I'm certainly not saying like buy now you know I re-entered here and I move my stop up to here today but I think

there's a chance this can kind of get up into this this kind of 200 area if you will um but o overall you know I I think

this is a stock to to stay focused on so this is one of the main names I'm focused on um you know Nvidia like I said I'm always kind of trading Nvidia it seems

to have kind of lost its power but I'm I'm long it from you know in this area and my stop is is now you know probably up to here you know maybe if it could go sideways a little here i' I'd consider

adding to it um but it's it doesn't quite have the juice that it had earlier in the year um I think AMD has probably been the better

trade it's a little extended at this point um but I'm long this one I'm long this path which kind of one of the things I talked about is that every name

kind of has a a uh change of character bar so that's right here when I draw these magenta arrows you know that's what that signifies you can see see just

a massive volume so volume equals price cause equals effect um and so I'm thinking this path this is right where the year to date or sorry the all-time

high anchored vwap is it's like right in here um I'm thinking if we can get through there this can trade a little bit better um I'm long from you know

down in in this area um so I'm really I don't have any risk on it it's more a question of like is this going to work you know if we can follow through my stop is probably up around here now but

you know I'd really like to see us follow through before I have a hard stop there but that this is a name that if we can kind of get through you know this

area I think it can start to more Trend obviously it's been trending here but you know more of a you know a trend like

this that's really what I'm looking for um and you know coin kind of had that too you know this is where I make big money is when when things really really

Trend and um so crowd is a name that I've this has been maybe my best trade as far as you know I had a lot of size and coin still do but I I've had a pretty big position here I got in it

down in here you know you can kind of actually here I'll go through this trade because it'll kind of show you that sometimes it takes a couple tries so I actually

really got in this thing in this area and I and I I thought this is just going to rip um and then I ended up stopping out of it you know normally that I might not have sold there but you could just

kind of tell the whole Market wasn't ready yet like crowd was actually showing relative strength but it it just couldn't get going but then when the market bottomed because of this and the

fact like it was trying to go when the market wasn't ready I knew like hey when the Market's ready this thing is going to rip and so I got pretty heavy in this

thing um I can't remember exactly where I added I was kind of adding you know all through here just a little bit I kind of do what I call Force feeding where like once I

have my core on if the name acts right and performs and responds right I'll add little bits and pieces um and so I was doing that all in

there and then sorry let me uh and then I I I don't hold like hug like I I'll hold like a I had a pretty

big position here so I sold a little bit before earnings just just because and then unfortunately I didn't do a good job on this earnings day normally I would add back but I added back you know

on these pullback areas you know around like 232 I think and I've been riding it higher you know one of my concerns here is that we're getting pretty extended

from the 10 we so I actually think this stock is probably you know I'd probably be a net profit taker on this um at this point but you know I'm really you know

we were holding the 10day and now we're holding the FED day which is usually a sign that things are accelerating and I'm like really I'm hoping we get a blowoff top here I'm

just not sure if it's going to happen um and if we did I would be probably selling into that but this is a name that I think is going to reset and

should be a focus stock it's certainly going to be for me kind of depending how it bases out um so I'm not sure if it's done or not yet but I but I wouldn't buy

something new this extended from the 10 week um but pay attention to this stock um I've been long Shopify from down in this

area and it had a day to take note bar or the change of character bar right here but it was just too early um so more recently it had it right here and I

think we're kind of breaking through this neckline and it it constantly all through here keep keeps getting attacked with downgrades and all this crap um and

it's been responding very well so I think there's more into this I'm sort of looking for it in time to trade up to this Broening line you know and that's

that's where I'll probably be looking to take some off um DG is a name I'm In from from down in here and you know you

can see we traded up we pulled back so like you know this would sort of be the wedge Pop I guess sort of unique one in that it happened on an earnings Gap but that's the change of character bar in

this big inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and we traded up and you know there was no real crossback just sort of because of how this happened you know

with it being a big gap but me to me this is like a basin break here the Basin break is usually a little longer you know the crossback can just be like more of a pullback but the Basin break

is a little longer and you know we're just kind of extended here but I I think if this can continue to stay above this

pattern you know this is a name to kind of keep an eye on once it sets up again um it's hard for me to like give names now because we've obviously run so much but you know these are names that I that

I think if they set up again you know this is another name I'm in from down here that's that's done well um this estc is a name to keep an eye on this is

the highest volume ever on this weekly and I think we're just a little extended here um but if this can chop around for a few weeks I think this is a name to to

keep on your radar um this stn we broke out of this huge weekly bottoming base you know we've had a

couple areas to get long um but keep an eye on on this you know this is like basically a two-year base so I'm betting it rallies for more than you know five

or six weeks um and the fundamentals here are pretty good it's really turned around its earnings and sales but so I'm looking at like a lot of software type names that

that might be turning where I've identified some big volume signatures um you know this one it just really hasn't quite got going yet um but

some of these if they can kind of consolidate well and and base and and let this five and 10 week catch up you know these moves not have even actually

started yet in reality um you know maybe I'm totally off on that um but I like those kind of software type

names um you know look at this new tanx monthly like you know we we we cleared through a pretty huge area you know all

the way back to the IPO like right here and so you know we're even a little extended on the monthly so you know we're a little extended on the weekly so I'm not saying buy it here but you know

these are some names to to kind of keep an eye on um but the specific themes like I don't think the Bitcoin thing's going anywhere and I'm not like a

Bitcoin YOLO like buy the dip kind of guy it's just something that seems like is not going anywhere that's the only reason I say it I and I think these

small midcap type names you know more in the software type space that's that's where really where I think we can do well if we're actually in the second leg

of what I think is a is a new bull market um and that's kind of identified a little bit by Arc um I see

a big inverted Head and Shoulders here on Arc I think very likely I don't know if it's going to be right here or a little higher I I sort of think we're

almost there but I think we're going to need you know a little bit of consolidation here here some sideways action before we're able to really take this out you know kind of how I'm

thinking about the iwm um and who knows may maybe these reject there and you know my whole thesis of us being in a new bull market

is incorrect and you know we roll over I I'm not sure but if we can set you know this iwm and this arcup you know that

sort of space of the market is where I want to focus on and I want to look for big patterns like this rivan I think there's potential that this could be building

out you know bigger bottom I'd really like to see it you know kind of get above this area and then this area before I really want to try to really

hold it but you know you can see how we burst off the low here we filled this Gap today which is where a lot of that you know downside volume came into it um

so if we can start to kind of live above here you know there may be more to this thing smci which was a you know I had a I had you know good chunk of this move

um and I actually I got out of it before earnings because it had what I call a second extension which I won't try to explain that today but you know there's potential I know a lot of people are

very excited about this thing right now I'm still a little bit skeptical of this bar whether it's actually G to really really go on a major Trend but if this

could trade up and get up into here and then base out you know I think fundamentally you know there's a chance this thing could could could really rip again so I'm sort of keeping an eye on

it um and then this is a new stock kind of on my radar I literally had it teed up down in here so this would be an example of a crossback um or a basin break depending

on how you interpret it but to me this was kind of the first move move breakout here and then we pulled back into the moving averages and you know we've just

ripped you know we've ripped 20% here and uh we got long I got long F frsh through that inside day at uh

$20.60 hell yeah I mean dude this was a great setup um I I had it teed up and you know I don't know why I I just I I wasn't fully a believer in this weekly

um but you know this was a great entry and part of the reason I'm keeping an eye on it now is I mean look at this volume in here um I mean they are coming

after this thing and even today you know we're I mean we're pretty extended and this thing is still unable to pull back um but you know the volume was lighter

today as it was kind of flat so sort of is what I I'll give you an example like how I think so like right here I've identified this as a name that that could be very interesting so how do do I

think about how to attack this well I never chase not so much that it can't work it's just that you know I'm not looking to flip things for like a day or

two trades so you know if I buy something like right here and it works for a day you know it might just knock me out you know a couple days later so I'd rather wait for like a a really good

entry so kind of when I analyze this chart I'm not I'm a believer that you know gaps don't always fill and I actually think they're a sign of strength so like I don't think this Gap

here is going to fill um so I'd either like for this to continue to go higher and then kind of back test this area you

know as like the 102 day kind of comes into it and look to get long there or I'd like to just kind of see it chop around here build sort of a

consolidation of some sorts um let these moving averages catch up and and you know maybe start to pick away at it into the moving averages you

know assuming that it chops around correctly you know if it just has like huge cell volume come into it I'm you know I'm not going to pick away but and then and then look to like add when it

breaks out of its pattern so like that's kind of how I think about something like this um I see it had like nice volume here and it kind of had reconfirmation

volume here so I I like how these volume patterns are building um something like this where you have huge volume here on the all-time low I actually view that as

a very good thing you know that could be like capitulation you know think about the guy you know Kathy Wood or someone who like bought it up here you know they

finally got fed up and sold out which just gets rid of supply and then we've been able to consolidate in here for like a year which is what's needed to create a big move right you need a huge

base and so I'm hopeful at least that maybe we're starting you know kind of that that move you know we tried to push here and we weren't quite ready so we

Consolidated back down but notice how we expanded and we had a wide R and up move and then we were really tight kind of on

the like comeback or I don't know how to describe it but to me that's a sign they were aggressive buying and then you know it was very contained but at some point

Point hopefully we can start you know more of a consistent up move you know kind of like you saw in something like this crowd where you know crowd was in

that phase maybe right here and it came back but then eventually it more expanded um so I'm hoping for something like that and and fresh and you know some of these other names I'm actually

in some of these which I'm not quite sure if they're going to work you know right now and if they don't work that's fine I I'll just get out of them you know for a small win at this point and

but I'll but I'll keep watching them and if they eventually get ready you know I want to catch the real move that's that's really my goal um bre you care if I ask you

another question quick yeah make it real quick y yep real quick um ah man um how frequently do you scan through like like hundreds or thousands

of stocks and secondly going back to do dog um one of my troubles is you know this never tapped the short-term moving averages after their earnings and I found a lot of them like Shopify and

doog on that initial move it just gave one or two days of rest and then went right away I'm sure you view that as a sign of strength rather than um unable

to get in um that's my main question so yeah I mean like you know that's kind of sometimes sometimes it's about you know like literally like right in here

right is where I thought the market changed and then when we had this bull snort I just kind of decided like hey I don't think this is going to retrace you know in 2022 I probably

would have been trying to short this uh so it's like it's kind of uh taken the whole environment into account in you know in addition

to the Chart so again like 2022 I I probably wouldn't have been looking to play that but based on us kind of having that huge bear trap on the indexes and

seeing the power in the indexes you know is what I'll do sometimes on these big gaps and it's actually what I did with data dog is I'll buy like a little bit with a wider

stop and then as it starts to hold up I'll I'll buy a little more and I'll buy a little more and then on this day I can't remember exactly how this one went but I I have a 20 well now it's a little

higher but I have a 22% position here and so I think I want to start I started at like like three and a half to 5% and maybe I got it up to like nine or 10 in

here you know and I kind of shed at my stop a little bit so that I'm not risking too much and then I probably like doubled my position and raised my

stop so that's one way I play these gappers where it's a huge gap is I'll uh I'll kind of piece into it and as I get more though I only buy more when I think

I can raise my stu um because otherwise like you know you're just like assing get smoked um and I and again I probably wouldn't have done that if I didn't just get this feeling like the market was

ready to Rift you know kind of once we had that bear trap and then I typically do really really well in November December into kind of that second week

of January so I'm more likely to take risk you know around this time of year um so that all kind of played into it in

addition to you know the Gap um where's Shopify let's see so shop Shopify actually did the same thing

and I think I I got a lot on here and I ended up selling selling it here for like nothing which like I'm not saying that was right or wrong but then when it

kind of had this turn day I started buying it back and then I topped it off here um understanding that I was up a couple points here you know I was able to kind of just put the trade back on

basically but that's how I played shop I think shop was a little easier than than data dog because data dog on this day basically it went and if you didn't kind

of push on that day it was sort of gone um and uh so Shopify to me like the easier entry was like right here at like

6150 um but you know so that one that one I think was a little easier than data dog um but you know sometimes these don't

work out I'll show you a trade that I I I was I actually had a little bit of this into earnings because I I just had a very strong you know like two and a half percent I I'm never just going to

like start a position a big but I had a little bit of this and then I was pretty aggressive right here and then this was that like reversal day in the market I actually cashed this in the whole thing

and I made like 10% and then on the open here it just like flashed down and I just kind of like again kind of based on experience I just kind of I I just sort of like knew like hey this is going to

bottom here because how it happened and I and I bought everything back so I was in a really good position on this name and that like I had taken some off bought it back lower but literally I got

stopped out of this yesterday and I'm and I'm pretty frustrated about it actually um but I was kind of looking at it I I thought we had a nice kind of cup

here and um I thought this was was going to go um but in hindsight you know if I'm really looking at this name because I try to be objective even when I'm just

like frustrated you know these are kind of our are you know change of character bars and the volume profiles on this thing are are really really good um I

sort of sort of think it's just a little extended from the 510 week and that maybe it'll set up you know down here on the 20 day in time but I've kind of

struggled with this name in general like I've thought I've had it multiple times and it just hasn't really worked out for me um but so you know I'm not trying to paint the picture that like I just buy

these Gap ups and they all work like like I screw them up you know yeah it's not an exact science man it's just I I love your I love your ability to just

like get back in a name like right after like just getting out of it like that's like my biggest weakness is like having a stock that has a really nice setup getting out of it for some reason and then being able to get back in like as

soon as it proves itself again and acts right you know yeah I mean I've uh yeah I don't I don't know I have a I I definitely have a pretty shortterm

memory um which I think is you know a good thing um but uh yeah it's just

yeah I don't know I mean it's just yeah I'm able to do that that's awesome well I guess we could wrap it up there uh great session

uh once again thank you for coming on um I'll have this recording posted guys like right when we're finished and I'll have it sent over to you Oliver and uh yeah I think we're good all right cool

guys I appreciate you having me happy to come on again you know a couple months or something um and uh you know hopefully we're we're getting into a better market for everybody

right but happy trading and uh you know thanks for having me you too where else can people find your stuff besides your book I mean really like I I just started this swing report thing that's kind of

what I'm what I'm doing now um and uh you know that's that's

that's pretty much it um yeah one one chart six on Twitter I'll type in the chat for you guys yeah what's that

about so I uh I mean literally I've been posting on Twitter for I don't know a long time like 10 or 12 years and I had

like 300 followers for a long time which was kind of nice actually um and I played quarterback in college and my number was 16 so it was just one chart

six that's that's really it there you go oh yeah all right well thanks for coming on olert and we'll see you guys tomorrow morning 9:00 am all right see

you guys we going