The Future Mark Zuckerberg Is Trying To Build
By Cleo Abram
Summary
## Key takeaways - **AR glasses: The next computing platform**: Meta's new holographic AR glasses, the Orion prototype, represent 10 years of research and are envisioned as the next major computing platform after smartphones, offering a more natural and social interaction with technology. [02:20], [03:59] - **Multiple AR/VR paths for different needs**: Meta is pursuing multiple hardware paths, including display-less glasses like Ray-Ban Meta for AI, heads-up displays for information, and full holographic AR glasses, alongside existing VR headsets, to cater to diverse user needs and price points. [08:35], [10:52] - **AI personalizes experience, enhances connection**: Personalized AI, powered by context from devices like glasses, aims to enhance human connection by providing a sense of presence and personalized intelligence, addressing the growing deficit in social interaction. [12:02], [12:44] - **Open source AI fosters diversity and safety**: Mark Zuckerberg advocates for open-sourcing AI models, arguing that it leads to a more diverse ecosystem of applications and, counterintuitively, a safer and more secure technology due to broader scrutiny and faster issue resolution. [40:45], [42:05] - **AI's scaling potential is a key question**: A major question in AI development is how far current transformer-based architectures can scale with increasing data and compute, with significant investment betting on continued advancement for future products and capabilities. [44:44], [45:42]
Topics Covered
- Holographic AR: The Future of Social Interaction?
- The Next Computing Platform After Phones
- Multiple Paths to the Future: Display-less to Full Holograms
- Open Source AI: Counterintuitive Safety and Progress
- The Scaling Question: Will AI Keep Improving or Hit a Plateau?
Full Transcript
I'd love to start with these. 10 years of work right there. Someone on your team called these
the real life Tony Stark glasses. Very hard to make each one of these... That makes me feel
incredibly optimistic... In a world where AI gets smarter and smarter... This is probably
going to be the next major platform after phones... I miss hugging my mom. Yeah haptics
is hard... How does generative AI change how social media feels?... We haven't found
the end yet... The average American has fewer friends now than they did 15 years ago. Why
do you think that's happening? I mean there's a lot going on to to unpack there...
I'm about to interview Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg. There are not
that many people with more power over what our future might look like. Nearly half the total human
population now uses Meta products and I just tested some of their new tech that feels like
science fiction. This is crazy! Mark Zuckerberg and the team at Meta are imagining a future that billions
of other people might actually end up living in. So my goal for this conversation is to try to figure
out what that future really looks like. To paint a picture of the future Mark Zuckerberg is trying to
build so that you can decide for yourself what you think of it. Welcome to the first episode of our
new series, Huge Conversations
Hey, good to meet you! Thanks for doing this. Yeah looking forward
to it. Awesome. I'd love to tell you what my goal is of this conversation. Go for it. We have a called
huge if true which is this very optimistic about science and technology and the potential futures
that we can build and in every episode we're sort of exploring what does it look like if you play a
certain technological future out and so my goal in this conversation is to try to help people
see the future that you're imagining when you're building the products that you and the Meta team
are building. What are you imagining this looks like in future? How are you imagining people use
this? All of that. Cool. All right awesome. So I'd love to start with these. Let's do it. 10 years
of work right there! I got to demo them a little bit earlier today. I heard someone on your team
call these the real life Tony Stark glasses? We're getting there. But I'd love to just hear in your
voice what are these? Well these are the first full holographic augmented reality glasses I think that
exist in the world. We've made I think it's a a few thousand or something right. Very hard to
make each one of these but this is the culmination of 10 years of research and and development that
we've done to basically miniaturize all the computing that you need to have glasses not a
headset but glasses that can put full holograms into the world with a wide field of view. So you
can imagine sort of in the future we'd be having a version of this conversation where you know maybe
I or you are not even here it's like one of us is physically here and the other one is here as a as
kind of a full body hologram and it's not just a video call you can actually interact you can
do things I mean in the the demo we had the you know ping pong and games and things like that but
I mean you could you can interact you can work together you can you know play poker play chests
whatever like the holographic cards holographic board game. I just think it's going to be wild.
it's going to remake I think so many different fields that we think about today from how we work
and productivity to a lot of things around science a lot of things around education entertainment fun
gaming. But this is just the beginning you know this is the first version, it's a
prototype version that we've made in order to develop the next version which is hopefully
going to be the consumer one that we sell to a lot of people. Why build these? Well I think
it's going to be the next major computing platform. So if you look at like the grand arc of computing
over time you've you've gone from like main frames to computers that basically like live
on you know your desk or on a tower to phones that you have in your hand that you basically
like you know can take with you everywhere that you want but it's it's pretty unnatural right it
takes you away from the world around you and. I think that the trend in computing is it gets more
ubiquitous it gets more natural and it just gets more social right so you want to be able
to interact with people in the world around you and I think that this is probably going to be
the next major platform after phones. I'll give these to you. These are the clear ones that show
all the... The whole thing is a special edition and this is like a really special edition. There's
not a single millimeter of of space. You know everything in here from the micro projectors that
um basically shoot light into the wave guides right it's a special type of display system. I
mean these aren't normal displays like you have in a phone or a TV or computer like the type of
displays that people have been building for decades. It's a waveguide system. The projector
that's shooting light basically goes into these nano etchings across the wave guide that are what
catches and creates the holograms. In order to synchronize that with your where you're looking
there's eye tracking and little cameras, they illuminate your eyes and then of course
there's all the basic stuff that you need all the computing, the batteries to power the whole thing,
microphones, the speakers because it needs to be able to play audio and speak with you and the
cameras and sensors to see things around you in the world so that way when it's placing holograms
in the world it can do that in the right place and understand where you are so that probably
is still not covering everything because there's a lot of things that need to go into syncing up
the holographic images between the two displays because you don't just have a single display
like you have in a phone or TV you have two and it moves around and you know physical things
are hard and need to be synced up. There's also the radio that has to communicate with your other
computing devices to do heavier computing um and the wrist based neural interface that you probably
got to try out. We kind of miniaturized all of this and fit it into uh you know normal looking pair of
glasses which is... you know when I told the team that we were going to do this 10 years ago you
know people weren't sure if we were going to be able to but I think you not only we're going
to be able to do this but I think we're going to be able to get it cheaper and higher quality and
even even smaller and more stylish over time. So I think this is going to be a pretty wild future.
There are so many versions of trying to get a similar idea of digital objects in physical
space. I'm thinking of for example of glasses that have heads up displays where it's headlocked and
it's moving with my eyes, glasses that are really creating digital objects in physical space that
don't move as I move, I'm thinking of these, I'm also thinking of the Snapchat Spectacles that they
just announced, then on the other hand there are headsets like the Quest and also like the Apple
Vision Pro that seem to fall into a different category. I'm curious how you would organize this
landscape for people and how you think about people using these tools in their real lives
in the near future? Yeah so when we were getting started on this about 10 years ago I thought that
something like this was going to be the ultimate product for everyone. Right you get to you know
normal looking pair of glasses and we'll continue improving that that can have full holographic
images. I think it's super powerful and it is sort of the science fiction future that
I think we all hope to get to. On the journey we took a few other approaches as well um to help us
develop towards that including building glasses that don't have displays to try to learn. Just
take a stylish pair of glasses today and put as much technology into it as you can but really
focus on the form factor and that's the Ray Ban Meta glasses and it's doing really well and
initially we thought that that was sort of intro product for us to learn how to build this but one
of the things that's clear now is you're going to be able to make that product a lot more affordable
than this probably permanently. So I actually think that there are going to be a bunch of different of
these paths that we've taken are going to be kind of permanent product lines that people
will choose. I think you'll see display-less glasses like the Ray Ban Metas continue to get better and
better, great for AI, no display but you can talk to it, it can talk back. I think there's going to
be something in between these that's basically a heads up display, so it's not a 70° field of view,
maybe it's a 20° or 30 degree field of view, so that's not going to be what you want for
putting kind of a full hologram of a person or interacting with the world around you but it's
going to be great for you know when you're talking to AI, not just having voice but also being able
to see what it's saying or being able to text someone with your wrist-based neural interface and
then have their text show up rather than having it read to you, which is, we read faster than we
can listen or getting directions right or just being able to search for information get all that.
So there's a lot of value for heads up display that will be somewhat more expensive than the
display-less but somewhat cheaper than this. Then I think you're going to get this. It's going
to be probably the most premium and and expensive of glasses products but hopefully still something
that you know like a computer is generally accessible to most people in the world but I think
that there are going to be all of those and I I think people will like them. I also think that
the headsets that people are using around mixed reality will continue to be a thing too because
no matter how good we get at miniaturizing the tech for this you're just going to be
able to fit more compute into a full headset. Fundamentally our mission is not you know build
something that is advanced and only a few people can use, we want to take it you the last mile and
do all the innovation to get it to everyone. We you know just shipped or announced Quest 3S,
the new mixed reality headset where we basically are delivering high quality mixed reality for $299.
I was really proud last year when we delivered Quest 3, the first kind of really high quality
high resolution color mixed reality device for $500, right it was like, it's like a fraction of
the cost of of what the competitors are doing and I think it's actually higher quality in a
lot of ways, and now we've just doubled down on that. So I think that they're all actually going
to end up being important long-term product lines: display-less, heads up display, full holographic
AR, full headsets. I think that they're all going to be important. Yeah. If you play out the future
of not just the hardware that we've been talking about so Meta Ray Bans, Quest, Orion, but also
the Llama models, if everything goes according to you and the teams wildest dreams, I'd love for
you to just begin to describe what that feels like. I mean I think that there are two primary values
that we're trying to bring. On the AR and kind of mixed reality side, the main value we're trying to
bring is this feeling of presence .Right so there's something that I think is just really deep about
being physically present with another person that you don't get from any other technology today and
I think that's the thing when people have a very visceral reaction to experiencing virtual or mixed
reality what they're really reacting to is that they actually for the first time with technology
feel a sense of presence like they're in a place with the person and that's super powerful. I
focused on designing social apps and experiences for 20 years that's sort of like the Holy Grail
of that is being able to build a technology platform that delivers this like deep sense of
of social presence. The other big track is around personalized AI and for that and that's sort of
where Llama and Meta AI and all those things are going. There's all this development that's going
into making the models smarter and smarter over time but I think where this is going to get
really compelling is when it's personalized for you and in order for it to be personalized for you
it has to have context and understand what's going on in your life both kind of at a global level and
like what's physically happening around you right now and in order to do that I think that glasses
are going to be the ideal form factor because they're positioned on your face in a way where
they can let them see what you see and hear what you hear which are the two most important senses
that we use for for kind of taking information and context about the world. I think that this is
all going to be kind of really deep and profound stuff but it's basically those two things: It's
this feeling of presence and this capability of really personalized intelligence that can
help you. I'd love to talk about each of those two things. The first on presence, I owe a lot
to being able to connect with people online. Right this job that I have is by definition that, also with
my family. My parents don't live anywhere close to me. I video call them a lot and when I think
about the progress of technology like this in a timeline from the telegram to the telephone
to video call to some feeling of presence with another person who's feels like they're right
there in front of me, that makes me feel incredibly optimistic. I would love a future where like I can
lose in Scrabble to my mom and feel like she's really there in front of me. Yeah and it feels like
we're not that far away from something - I agree! - that persuades my brain that that's happening. Yeah
totally. And also I miss hugging my mom right like that never goes away. Yeah haptics is hard. Yeah and
so my question is about that it's about this this feeling of like it's hard
for me to imagine um a future where real physical presence is not different and special in some way
where I don't miss literally hugging my mom and I'm curious how you think about the
parts of human connection that are eye contact and physical touch and things that our ape brains
value for connection with other people. Yeah well eye contact I think we're going to get to a lot before
the the touch part. For haptics I do think we'll make progress on that but it's it's obviously
there's a spectrum there too from kind of hands which is where if you you draw out the kind
of like homunculus version of a person in terms of like what are what are our kind of sensory you
know what what's like the majority of what we're sensing it's like yeah yeah so I think being
able to do that for your hands is probably the most important place to start and you have a rough
version of that with controllers today. I think that that'll get even more over time. We have this
demo playing pingpong where you have a controller where as the digital ball hits the ping pong
paddle you feel it hit the as if it's hitting the ping pong paddle wherever it is so you actually
have a sense of like where it's it's hitting the the the paddle so I think that was that
was just a wild demo so I think we'll get some of that the most extreme version of this is wanting
force feedback right so I mean like for doing a lot of sports right it's it's like okay we can kind of
do a good approximation of like boxing today or you get like good feedback on your hands but it
would be hard to do a virtual reality version of Jiu-Jitsu where you're like grappling with someone and
you need like real kind of force feedback on that so that's probably like the hardest thing
right to go do but I think we'll get there. You know I think like most science fiction it's
not this binary thing that you just like wake up one day and we're like oh we've realized all the
dreams but but I I do think that these platforms are going to be the first time that I think that
there's a realistic sense of presence in all the ways that that's special to people for
most things that people want to do which are not the most physical ones and even some of the basic
physical ones I think we'll get. But then there's a long tale of other stuff I mean smell is also
really important for people yeah right it's I think it's disproportionately important for
memories and that's not really a thing that I think in the next few years we're going to
have in any of these devices I mean that's a very difficult and challenging thing on its own. What is
the piece of that that you feel most interested in, that you keep coming back to in your mind? This has
the frustrating property to develop that the sense of presence is almost like when you're
designing something that that's sort of trying to artificially deliver it you're delivering
an illusion to a person and more than any one thing that provides a sense of presence it's
actually more the case that any one thing done wrong breaks the sense of presence. You kind
of know that you're interacting with technology but it's so convincing that um that you just kind
of go along with it. You're like okay yeah no this person feels like it feel like they're there right.
When I did that pingpong demo I like at the end of it I dropped the pingpong paddle on the virtual
table and it shattered so that was not the best for for our internal development but
like that's winning in our in our development right it's like when when you feel like something
is is kind of so realistic that you you're just convinced that um that it's there now and there
are a lot of things that can break that right so I think a a field of view that's too low right so
something feels real but then you turn your head and it's not there um latency read physics that
don't behave like realistic physics. It also is interesting in some ways what people can accept
as physically real even though it's not right so like we've done a ton of work on avatars we
we have this whole work stream on Kodak avatars to do these photo avatars and it's I think it's
going to be incredbly compelling and people are going to love it but one of the things I found
interesting is the ability to mix photorealistic and expressive kind of the cartoony avatars with
photorealistic worlds and kind of more cartoony computer game type worlds so you can have the
a Kodak kind of photorealistic avatar of a person in what is clearly like a video game
or cartoon world and people are generally pretty fine with that it's like okay that
that feels pretty good and similarly having a photorealistic world but good increasingly
good kind of cartoon avatars as long as the avatars move in a way that feels authentic to
the person you're interacting with it actually feels pretty good you know it's when you look at
a 2d still frame of it some of the stuff can look a little bit silly and and we've certainly
you know had had a our share of memes around that but um but when you're in there you know and
you you've played around with lot of the stuff it feels realistic because it's basically mimicking
the kind of authentic mannerisms of of a person that you're interacting with and even if it's not
a Kodak photo realistic avatar if it's kind of a more cartoony expressive one so I I think that
that's it's very interesting to see kind of which pieces you need to unlock and what where you
just need to be like very technically excellent and consistent but it's um this isn't a space
where it's like you deliver one thing and it's good this is like there's a wide breth of things
that you need to nail and then have it all come together and that's why these are you know 10 year
projects. It seems like an interesting way to learn about the human brain and what we actually care
about with respect to what feels real. I was wondering about, there was this moment in an
interview that you did with Lex Friedman, you quoted research that says that the average American has
fewer friends now than they did 15 years ago and I was so interested in that because
it seems like if we want to get to a world where there's more human connection this is the trend
that we're going to have to grapple with and just to give some data on this in the American Time Use
Survey over the last 20 years the amount of time American adults spend socializing in person has
dropped by nearly 30%. For ages 15 to 24 according to the Surgeon General it's nearly 70%. and I
look at that data and I think to myself well maybe if we're all socializing digitally that doesn't
matter so much maybe there's a future where that's actually fine but there's also data that suggest
that we're struggling somewhat. The number of Americans who say that they don't have a single
close friend - yeah it's really sad - that share has jumped from 3% to 12% in the last 30 years. It feels to
me like with all the tools that we've built for human connection, we're struggling to connect and I'm curious
why do you think that's happening? I mean there's a lot going on to to unpack there. A lot has changed
sort of economically and socially during that period and a lot of those trends go back before
a lot of the modern technology. So I mean this is something that a lot of academics and folks
have have studied but it is an interesting lens to look at this though because I think whenever
you're talking about building digital types of connection one of the first questions that
you get is is that going to replace the physical connection and my answer to that especially in the
case of something like this is that no because people already don't have as much connection
as they would like to have. It's not like this is replacing some sort of better physical connection
that they would have otherwise had. It's that the average person would like to have 10 friends and
they have two right or three and there's just more demand to socialize than what people are
able to do given the current construct and giving people the ability to be present with people who
are in other places physically just seems like it will unlock more. It's not going to make it
so, if I have glasses, it's not going to make it that I spend less time with my wife, it's going
to make it so that I spend more time with you know my sister who lives across the country. And
that's, I think that's good. I think people need that. As for the rest, I
I think we could probably spend a multi-hour podcast just going into all of the different
kind of socioeconomic political dynamics that are going on but none of the trends that I've seen
does it seem like the primary thing that's going on is that because people are interacting online
they're now not interacting with their with people physically. Now certainly I think you
you I do interact with people online who I also like to interact with physically but and I think
that that's kind of like a combination um like more combined richer relationship that you have
overall but I think that there's a lot going on with the loss of of kind of social capital and
connections that really predates a lot of the modern technology. The goal of what, I'm what I'm
trying most to learn about is how we can structure the technologies that we use in the future to get
toward this future I think you're imagining of more human connection in more ways. I'm curious, you
brought up the other big pillar of AI and in some of your conversations, I'm thinking of a conversation
with Tim Ferris in particular, you talked about a lot of different use cases of AI and they seem
to me to fall on somewhat of a spectrum. Like for example you mentioned automatic real-time
translation, like basically the Star Trek Universal translator. We're pretty
much there! Yeah and that's one example on one end of the spectrum where some people might argue
that there is a chance that someone is less likely for example to learn a language because we can all
speak to each other in real time in different languages. I think nobody would really argue
that therefore we shouldn't have that kind of universal translator. People still learn Latin and
Greek. Right exactly and so I think that end of the spectrum is something like um technologies
that really measurably unlock our humanity because they remove a struggle between people and then on
the other end of the spectrum there are a lot of educational things for example where the struggle
is kind of the point right? Like it's like building a muscle. I can think of so many times
in my life where like the reason why I was doing something was not the output it was the fact that
I was trying so hard to do it. There's one example in the Tim Ferris interview where you talked
about your kids struggling to articulate themselves emotionally and adults very much had
the same problem and you talked about AI as a way to help them articulate those emotions. Yeah and
I thought about all of the many times in my life where I have struggled to articulate my emotions
and how I really could have used some help in those moments and I also found myself thinking
about the times when that was really building a muscle where like the act of struggling to
communicate with someone and understand what they wanted from me was was important to my development.
And so my question is if you think about that as a spectrum between things that are really
important to our humanity where and the struggle being removed is helpful versus things where the
struggle is the point and it unlocks something about our humanity and is important
to preserve like building a muscle, how do you draw the line between those things and how do
we ensure that the muscles that we're building for this future are stronger and not weaker? Yeah it's
interesting I mean I think we're always going to find new things to struggle with and I mean it's
you can always get better at communicating with other people and kind of expressing yourself and
understanding other people so having a tool that can help you do that better isn't going to mean
that like oh now we perfectly understand every you know it's I mean I think the maybe one
of the most functional aspects of this you're already seeing a lot of these AI models really
help people with coding right like a generation ago um before I was getting started a lot of
coding was like really low-level system software and you know then by the time that I got into
it there was a little bit of that but um you you can make websites pretty easily make apps pretty
easily and I think in 20 years or a lot sooner than that you're going to basically be in a
world where kids will be able to just describe the things that they want and build incredibly complex
pieces of software so it's um in that world are kids going to be not struggling I I don't
think so I think that they're going to be just expressing their creativity and and it'll it'll
be this kind of constant iterative feedback loop around like okay like yeah I you know took a few
minutes to describe this thing and like yeah this whole like amazing virtual world was created that
I can have see on my glasses or whatever but like these things are not exactly what I want them to
be so now I need to like go back and edit them it just I don't know I think that there's always
more. Another way to get this - it's one of the things that I think makes makes people so good. It just
there's there's always more to do. We'll always find the struggle? Yeah. Another way to get at this
is if you if you play this out to make the tools even better in like 10 years let's say
your kids are in high school are there ways that you would want them using AI because you think it
would accelerate them intellectually and ways that you would advocate for them not to use it or
things that you would have concerns about? I mean I think that there's some things that you need
to be able to do yourself. I think that's a lot of the basic fear that people have around this is
that while we're building these amazing tools we get away from this self-confidence and ability of
being able to do like this basic stuff yourself so it's like all right you have a calculator but it's
still good to be able to do kind of basic math in your head because there are a lot of things that
come up throughout the day that you just want to have a general numeracy around right that often
they're not expressed in numerical terms but just in terms of understanding trends or understanding
arguments that people are making, you you kind of need to understand the shape of how numbers come
together and so I think one of the big debates is like should we still teach our kids to program
computers even though you're going to have these tools in the future that are just so much
more powerful than anything that we have now to produce incredibly complicated pieces of software.
I think the answer to that is probably yes because I think teaching someone how to code
is teaching them a way to think rigorously and that even if they're not doing most of the code
production I think it's important that you kind of have the ability to think in that way and I think
it's going to just make you generally a better thinker and better person so yeah maybe that's
like this generation's version of calculators it's like so you you want to you want to use the
calculator but you'll also want to be able to generally do without it. Other ones like language
I don't know I mean different people can come out I think this is one of the interesting
questions about parenting these days is like is is just kind of like what what's important to
teach your your kids and in an era where so much is going to change over the the time that they're
even in school. Language I think you can make similar arguments. I think there's a lot of it's
like it's probably going to be less functionally relevant in the future to learn multiple languages
but it sort of helps you think in different ways, you know I found from the languages that I've
studied that a lot of it you learn about the structure of your own language, you can
you know you also learn about the culture right because so much of how things are expressed in
different places is tied to the nuance and the history of kind of what how so I think
like you that's all valuable and interesting stuff to get into but then I don't know at the
same time we only have so many hours in the day so people need to prioritize what they're going
to learn and it may be that okay in a world with perfect translation which by the way we basically
just announced on the Ray Ban Metas that now you're going to be able to just like you go to
countries yeah we're starting out with just a few languages but we'll roll it out to more and you
know you'll be you could be traveling anywhere and you have your glasses and they just translate in
real time in your ear. So it's wild, yeah so I think people are going to need to choose what
what what they want to focus on going forward. How do the developments that we've been talking
about in AI intersect with social media and the platforms that most people use today? There's a
future where there's images and generated text and maybe AI influencers. How does generative
AI change how social media feels in the future? Yeah I mean I think that that's a really
deep one. You know there's already been one big shift which is that social media started
out as people primarily interacting with their friends and now it is you know at least half of
the content is basically people interacting with creators or content that's not created
by people who they kind of personally know so we sort sort of already have that paradigm and
I think AI is probably going to accelerate that. It will give all these people additional tools right
so your friends will create kind of funnier memes and more interesting content um that'll come from
a lot of different ways. I think some of it will be okay your friends have glasses and they capture
a bunch of stuff and before they might have not been able bble to edit it to make it interesting
or maybe it was just too much work or they didn't even realize that they captured something amazing
but now the AI is like hey I like made this thing for you out of your content um it's like okay
that's awesome like people will enjoy that. Creators obviously kind of much more specialized skills
are going to be able to use even more advanced AI tools to make more compelling content but then I
think that there will be a bunch of kind of green field type stuff where maybe in the future there
will be content that is purely generated by AI by the system personalized for you maybe it's
summarizing things that are out there that that are going to be interesting maybe it's um just
producing something funny that makes you laugh this is going to be like a very kind of deep zone
that there's a lot to to experiment with. I think there are going to be AI creators as well,
as creators building AI versions of themselves, I mean that's a thing that we just showed too
at Connect is basically I mean if you're a Creator one of the big challenges is
like all right there are only so many hours in the day and your community probably has a
nearly unlimited demand to interact with you and you want to interact with them because you're
trying to grow your community. I mean that's both socially and from a business perspective that's
sort of you know growing the community is an important part of what every creator does so
okay if we can make it so that each creator can basically make an like an AI artifact
that their community can interact with people be clear it's not the actual creator themselves but
it's almost like a piece of digital art that you're producing like an interactive sculpture
or something that it's like it's like you train it to here's the context that I wanted to have
here's the topics I wanted to communicate on here's stuff that I wanted to stay away
from you're giving your community something to interact with when you can't be there to to kind
of answer all the questions and I think that's going to be super compelling so there's like
these interesting things but I think it's I AI it's kind of like the internet in a way where
it's probably going to change almost every field and almost every feature of every application that
we use um it seems sort of hyperbolic to say that but I do think that's true and it's just hard to
sort of enumerate all the different things up front but I think that over the next 5 to 10
years we're just going to explore the impacts in each of these areas and it's going to be
like an amazing amount of innovation and really exciting. I feel two things simultaneously when
you say that. I feel both like I really want to be optimistic about the future of these
platforms and I obviously have gained so much from an enormous pace of change right like everything
that we're doing now and what I actually feel is worried. I feel some specific concerns around the
way that you know I might communicate with an audience and the way that they might respond to
that or the way that human communication might change but also more generalized just sort of
fear of the pace of change and and worry and I don't think I'm alone in that feeling. Yeah and
you're supposed to be the optimist! I know! And I'm curious like how you talk to people who feel that
way. What concerns do you feel are most legitimate and what do you feel most misunderstood? I think
the pace of change is always a concerning thing right it's there is a lot of uncertainty
about how how things will go in the future and we're all going to get really amazing new tools
to do both our hobbies and our jobs and they'll make it so we can do better work and
have better lives but at least on the professional side it's going to be our responsibility to keep
up with that or else it's going to be difficult for us to compete with other people who are
doing a good job of kind of keeping up with the new trends. So I get it. I mean I think
you know especially in the you know line of of work of being a creator and it's a very sort of
competitive space, I don't think that like creators necessarily think about it as competitive but it
is right it's like it's you know and um and so I get it. I think that this is going to make it so
that like the quality of work that people produce and how interesting it is and how much they can
communicate and like really efficiently is is just going to kind of go through the roof but
but when you're staring down a set of changes like you know that there's some big change coming and
you don't know what it is that's always a time of anxiety so I get it. If I take my creator hat
off and I'm just a person who is youngish starting out my career-ish, starting out building a family,
how would you advise someone like me to prepare well for the future that we're headed toward
to be able to learn new skills now or just think about this future in an educated way? Yeah I mean
I just think maintaining curiosity about things is is important. I do think we can overstate to what
extent the next 10 years is going to be sort of different from the last 10 or 15. I mean a ton of
stuff changed over the last 10 or 15 years too. It's not like this is the only time in history
where there's some technology it's going to make it so there's new opportunities and things change
the internet coming into maturity and everyone having smartphones has already rewired things
dramatically and I mean maybe the next period will be a somewhat bigger change or maybe it won't I
think it'll feel different to different people but I don't think this is like going from zero to
one it's not like okay everything's just kind of been normal and now like now it's about to change
it's like the technology of evolves over time and and like the opportunities that we have evolve and
improve and I think that's like the people who do well I think are are people who are generally
curious about it and and dig in and and try to use it to live better lives rather than the
people who who basically you know try to fight it in in some way. One thing that I really want to ask
you about is open source. Yeah. I think imagine that we're talking to an audience that has maybe heard
that term but doesn't have any real idea of how that might impact them in the development of AI.
How would you explain the reasonable debate that people in your field are having about this
right now? Well I think there are two pieces. I mean so what does open source mean? It means that people
can build a lot of different things right so at a high level I look at the vision that a bunch of
companies have right so Open AI, Google, they're building an AI right like one AI that I think
in general they're like okay this is going to be it's like you're going to use they think you're
going to use Gemini or ChatGPT for like all the different things that you want to interact with
and at a high level that's just not how I think the world is going to go. I think we're going to
have a lot of different AI systems just like we're going to have we have a lot of different apps.
I think in the future every business just like they have a website and a phone number and an
email address and a social media account is also going to have an AI that can interact with with
their customers to help them sell things to help them do support. I think a lot of creators will
have their own AIs right I think like a lot of people will interact with with a bunch of
different things. There's a question of okay do you want a future that's fundamentally kind of very
concentrated and where you're interacting with kind of one system for everything or do you want
one where a lot of different people are building a lot of different AIs and systems just kind
of like you probably didn't want there to be you know just one app or just one website. It's like a
richer world when there's a diversity of different things so that's one piece is is just giving
people the ability to build it themselves and what open source does it makes it that everyone
can take and modify the model and build stuff on top of it which is different from the kind
of closed and centralized approach. The safety debate is a specific part of this which is in a
world where AI gets smarter and smarter, what's the way that we have the highest chance of of having a
a a kind of positive future and and not having a lot of the safety concerns? And I think some
people think that if we keep the model closed and don't give it to a lot of developers that
should make it safer because then you don't get bad developers doing bad things with the model.
Historically I think what we've seen with open source is actually the opposite which is that
this is not the first open source project right I mean this is obviously this has been a thing in
the industry for decades and I think what we've traditionally seen is that open source software
is safer and more secure largely because you put it out there more people can scrutinize it because
they can see all parts of the system and then there are inevitably issues with any software
there are bugs there are security issues and initially with open source people thought hey if
you're putting the software out there and there are holes in it isn't everyone just going to go
exploit those holes and especially the bad guys but it turned out that it sort of in this
counterintuitive way that by making by adding more scrutiny to the systems the holes became apparent
quicker and then were fixed and then people roll out a new version just like we roll out
a new version of our models right Llama 3, Llama 3.1, Llama 3.2 everyone upgrades, so I think the
same thing is going to happen here I think it's sort of this counterintuitive thing where even
though I I think there's some concern around all right are bad guys going to do bad things with
these models. I actually think you just get a kind of smarter and safer model for everyone the more
it's rolled out and the more kind of scrutiny is on it and then part of that is we get
feedback and we make the model safer so that is we roll it out to to more people it's safer
for more people to use. So I think that the history of open source in the software industry generally
would suggest that open source is going to lead to a more prosperous and safer future. Our show
is called Huge If True and what I mean by that is kind of testing the most optimistic non-obvious
thing and so my question to you is what is the biggest open genuine question on your mind right
now? In which field? You're in so many! I am particularly curious about the combination of
AI and hardware but I realize that we've covered a lot so I'm curious the direction you'd take this
on a question that occupies you right now. Gosh I mean I think maybe one that's a little more
AI specific is there a current set of methods that seem to be scaling very well right so with
past AI architecture you could kind of feed an AI system a certain amount of data and and use
a certain amount of compute but eventually it hit a plateau and one of the interesting things
about these new transformer based architectures over the last you know 5 to 10 years is that we
haven't found the end yet. So that leads to this dynamic where Llama 3 you know we could train on
you know 10 to 20,000 gpus, Llama 4 we could train on you know more more than 100,000 gpus, Llama 5
we can plan to scale even further and there's just an interesting question of how far that goes. It's
totally possible that at some point we just like hit a limit and just like previous systems there's
an asymptote and it doesn't keep on growing but it's also possible that that limit is not going
to happen anytime soon and that we're going to be able to keep on just building more clusters and
generating more you know synthetic data train the systems and that they're just going to keep on
getting more and more useful for people for quite a while to come and it's a really big and high
stakes question I think for for the company is because we're basically making these bets on how
much infrastructure to build out for the future and this is like hundreds of billions of dollars
of infrastructure so like I'm clearly betting that this is going to keep scaling for a while
but it's one of the big questions I think in the field because it is possible that it doesn't. You
know that obviously would lead to a very different world where it's I mean I'm sure people still
figure it out eventually just need to make some new fundamental improvements to the architecture
in some way but that might be a somewhat longer trajectory for okay maybe you know the the kind
of fundamental AI advances slow down for a bit and we just take some time to build new products
around this or it could be the case and that's what I'm betting on that the fundamental AI will
just continue advancing for quite a while and that we're going to get both a new set of products that
are just really compelling in all these ways and that the technology landscape and what's
possible will just continue being dynamic over like a 20-year period and that's probably what
I'd guess is going to happen but it I think it's one of the bigger questions in the industry and
kind of for technology across the world today. Is there anything else that you want to say? I
don't know! Awesome. We're good. Amazing yeah thank you so much for doing this. Yeah no thank you...
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