Trump’s Cabinet Naps Tell a Bigger Story (w/ Jonathan Lemire) | The Bulwark Podcast

a lot of, you know, MAGA blogger 420 also are asking him questions, you know.

>> No, this is a a great point and it's one of the things that he's done differently this time around is the White House has more or less hijacked the press pool.

>> Hey guys, quick scheduling note on what's been uh what's been up with the podcast. So, you got two podcasts

podcast. So, you got two podcasts yesterday. So, in case you're one of

yesterday. So, in case you're one of those who, you know, wakes up in the morning, does the Sunday morning commute, just goes to the most recent uh show, um we I tag Amanda Carpenter yesterday morning and then Olivia Nudie

yesterday afternoon. So, don't go don't

yesterday afternoon. So, don't go don't miss out on all caps Amanda yesterday.

Um that podcast was was excellent. Um

the Nutsy podcast, some people, we had some mixed views on the Olivia Nutsy podcast. You'll be

surprised to hear that. And um I'm going to have some more extended thoughts on that um over on the next level. But um

reason why we did that bonus podcast style, understand folks views on it, but uh you know um when you have somebody

that can uh personally testify to the um horrific way in which the current Secretary of Health and Human Services handles a crisis and how he's hiding his

drug use from his wife and a bunch of other stuff. Uh I think that's some

other stuff. Uh I think that's some relevant information uh for for us uh in this moment. So I I'll have more on that

this moment. So I I'll have more on that over on the next level as I mentioned.

Uh so please go check that out. Me Sarah

and JVL um are taping that every week.

It's where we get to let our hair down a little bit more. Um on this show uh it's a little tight in part because I'm flying to DC. I'm be doing the next level in person in DC. Um, and uh, and

so I had a short window this morning and we had a little guest shuffle and so I appreciated Jonathan Lamir uh, jumping on with me uh, in between his Morning Joe segments. That dude works. All

Joe segments. That dude works. All

right. Well, you were in bed. Jonathan

Lamir was on TV, leaving TV, doing this podcast, going back to TV. You know, I mean, it's not he's not a coal miner or anything, but you know, you got to respect the grind. Um, and so we had a

little bit abbreviated pod with Lamir and then I I gave you some extended remarks at the end of the show on the Tennessee special election results last night. So there is no limit of content.

night. So there is no limit of content.

Carpenter yesterday, Nutsy yesterday, today we got Jonathan Lamir. We got the next level coming out later. Um, stick

around for all that. Appreciate you

guys. Up next, Jonathan Lamir. Hello and

welcome to the Bullwward podcast. I am

your host Tim Miller. Delighted to

welcome to the show a staff writer at the Atlantic, co-host of Morning Joe on MS Now. He's covered the White House

MS Now. He's covered the White House since 2016 for a bunch of outlets, Politico AP. It's Jonathan Lamir. What's

Politico AP. It's Jonathan Lamir. What's

up man?

>> Hey, man. Good to see you.

>> Good to see you, too. You had a great piece for The Atlantic this week. I

wanted to grab you on called The Bubble Wrapped President um regarding Trump.

And I think it's interesting. It's kind

of like sort of a traditional type of piece that you could have written about Joe Biden or George Bush or like Trump is is different in a lot of ways and unique in a lot of ways, but like this

has been a an issue kind of as an oldest as old as time with presidents like how do you you know when you're inside this White House like m maintain touch with what's happening in the country. Um and

Trump avoided that a little bit through his like rallies and other ways um throughout his time, but it feels like he is now kind of receding into a problem that we've seen from more normal politicians in the past. What do you

make of that?

>> Yeah, I mean he's far from the first president, as you say, to struggle with the bubble. Some of that is the nature

the bubble. Some of that is the nature of the White House. Some of that's the extraordinary security measures that come with the job. Um but Trump is facing an extreme version of it now. And

a big part of it is, and there's a number of reasons, but the biggest one I'd argue is he's stopped doing his rallies, which frankly are the signature political event of our last decade, the

Trump rally, right? Started in 2015 all the way through uh his re-election bid a year ago. And not only would he travel

year ago. And not only would he travel the country, but he'd use those rallies as like testing grounds. He he'd he'd give a line. He'd see what kind what kind of response it got. the crowd liked it, well, he'd say it the next night and

it would, you know, a line would become this part of the speech, which sometimes would become policy. If something that, you know, he said that went over like a dud, well, he usually would drop that.

But also before and after the events, he would meet with people, local officials, state party chairs, even just some regular supporters occasionally. And

though he didn't love traveling the country, it gave him a real window into what his base cared about, he stopped doing that. And people around him are

doing that. And people around him are afraid he's now flying blind. I guess

why did he stop it? You write in the article that he uh told his aids after the Grand Rapids rally um at the end of the campaign in 2024 that that would be his last. I guess I don't really

his last. I guess I don't really understand why. I I mean you said there

understand why. I I mean you said there that he doesn't he didn't enjoy really driving the country. He did seem to enjoy the rallies.

>> Oh, Lee loved being on stage. No doubt.

And it is a surprise to some people around him that they've stopped. I mean,

yeah, he he closes every campaign by he's very superstitious with that with an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Um,

and after the one in 2024, which was in the early hours of election day, that Tuesday morning, he said, "That's it.

I'm done." Now, he's actually had a couple of small sort of rally-l like events uh early this year. He did one to mark 100 days that was also in Michigan, but it it was nothing compared to what

you consider a full-fledged uh Trump rally. It's a couple of things. I am

rally. It's a couple of things. I am

told that, you know, look, I mean, he continued to do rallies after the assassination attempt in Butler County, Pennsylvania, but understandably got spooked by that. Secret Service also has made it that much harder. You know,

their their qualifications for securing a venue that much higher now. But also,

I think he was sort of just worn out.

And we know the president doesn't like to talk about uh being tired or his fact that he's approaching 80, but it is exhausting. And he has instead traded

exhausting. And he has instead traded those for nights at the White House.

He's traded that for dinners with billionaires or business leaders who want something for him. And we looked at his schedule his in 2017, the first year of his first term. A pretty robust

travel schedule within the United States this year, the first term of his first year of his second term. Yeah, he's

traveling overseas a fair amount, but he's done next to no domestic travel. In

fact, in October and November, the only times he left the Washington area to travel in the United States, >> Maraago, let me guess.

>> Boom. You nailed it. simply his golf clubs.

>> His golf courses. Yep. His own clubs.

>> Um, you write in the article. It's

interesting. It's not just, you know, it's not just the fake news at MS now that is noticing this. I mean, Bannon is complaining about this. Others, they're

like, why are you traveling overseas so much? It does take a lot out of a

much? It does take a lot out of a president. We're going to get to the age

president. We're going to get to the age stuff in a second. But also that what I mean, it's literally the antithesis of what is right there in the name of the slogan of America first, right? and and

he seems, I guess, so obsessed with the peace prize and the deal making process that that he has, you know, sh um ignored the domestic travel and and in

favor of, you know, going overseas.

>> Yeah. It's not just those of us at MS Now. And I'm coming to you, by the way,

Now. And I'm coming to you, by the way, from the darkest possible corner of the new MS Now offices. Apologies for the backdrop.

>> Looking nice, I think. A little ominous.

>> Some light. Some light. Yeah, it's sort of Death Starish, frankly, this room. Um

the uh now look again this is where he's a little bit like a typical president. A

lot of secondterm presidents who you know inherently are a lame duck find that they can't do as much with a domestic agenda. They often shift focus

domestic agenda. They often shift focus to foreign policy. Oh that's where we'll leave I'll make my legacy you know that's where I think in I can do more unilaterally. I don't need Congress's

unilaterally. I don't need Congress's approval uh on the world stage. So in

this case President Trump is is acting like that. But he also you just said it

like that. But he also you just said it he's desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize.

uh he is by the day the number of conflicts he's allegedly uh ended his tally seems to go up. Um, but some of his most faithful supporters are saying,

"Wait a minute, like you your focus should be here at home. That's what you promised during the campaign last year.

You know, I don't want to see you in Saudi Arabia. You know, sure, it's

Saudi Arabia. You know, sure, it's important to talk about peace in the Middle East, but like, you know, don't forget here at home." And Marjorie Taylor Green, right before she fully broke with the president, she was one of those voices who said, "Look, leave Air

Force One parked on the tarmac. You

know, stay here in the United States."

>> Yeah. Um it it should you would think that that would be a a red flashing warning sign for him that that if Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Green are complaining about something and Marco Rubio's happy, right? That's just

another thing about the second term that's kind of related to the bubble wrap, which is more than the first time.

He does kind of care about the feedback of the rich CEOs, the people that are funding the ballroom, you know, Marco, right? And it's kind of this weird

right? And it's kind of this weird dichotomy where like the the people that were in there last time that were establishment that were kind of putting the brakes on him were, you know, those folks are not there, but there's like a

new class of kind of establishment suckups that he seems to be gravitating to more than, you know, his the traditional MAGA allies. What do you make of that?

>> Yeah. And people around Trump have long said, and I mean, I've covered him for a long time now, said like he the one thing that impresses him is wealth. uh

and he loves the idea that these rich powerful people are coming to him to kiss the ring or to ask him for things or to donate money to whatever cause uh he suggests whether that's the

presidential you know library that allegedly is going to be built someday or the ballroom that's now in place of the the devastated uh white house east wing but you also make a good point in

the in the first term he was surrounded by some establishment Republican figures folks you know, well, uh, who would occasionally tell him no, who would who would pump the brakes on some of his

ideas. That's just gone this time around

ideas. That's just gone this time around by design. It's just true believers. So

by design. It's just true believers. So

therefore, no one is telling him, hey, you're actually out of touch here. No

one's saying this is a bad idea. And

even his his media diet has become more and more that way. There was, you know, in the first term, you know, he Yes, of course there's Fox News. There's still

Fox News, but now there's also O and Newsmax. Uh but this time, last time he

Newsmax. Uh but this time, last time he was on Twitter where at least he'd occasionally encounter uh you know an opposing viewpoint.

>> He was watching you on Morning Joe. He

was live tweet live bleeding that I guess it was tweeting back then. He was

still on Twitter.

>> That's just it. I mean he does he still I'm told he still does that a little bit this time around but less. But it's more is he exists in truth social and we just which is a site he owns. It's completely

syncopants. It's all his acolytes. We

just saw him go on a What was it? He

tweeted or he truth or retruth over a hundred posts the other night.

>> What was the deal with that?

What was it? He was he posted once a minute all night long. Do we know what the deal was with that?

>> Well, he likes to say he doesn't sleep very much. I've long said that the best

very much. I've long said that the best window into his soul is what he does on Truth Social in the middle of the night cuz that means he's not sleeping. He's

up and likely unhappy about something.

Uh and in this case, like look, we we know what his poll numbers are. I don't

think it's a shock that this came after Gallup had him at the lowest mark of his second term.

>> Melania should be cuddling him a little bit more, I would think. You know,

>> I'm going to keep on that. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Um, you don't have any thoughts?

You don't have any thoughts on that one?

Okay, we're going to That's fine. Um,

you know, I'm going to keep throwing it out there.

>> I guess yesterday I had a couple things she didn't want to talk about either.

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code bullwork. In addition to his diet, there's a there's the bubble uh of the of the press pool itself. And I want to talk to you about that in particular because you you know that's something I've I wasn't a you know invited. The

bull work didn't make the press pool the first time around. You were there though um with AP and Politico and and so you know he's doing a lot of press conferences still. You got to just

conferences still. You got to just acknowledge that like he's still talk, you know, he's still taking a lot of questions, but like the makeup of the people questioning him has changed so dramatically from last time and like

there are some handful of people mixed in. Every once you'll see Kate Mollins

in. Every once you'll see Kate Mollins in there. Von was at the White House

in there. Von was at the White House yesterday. You'll see some people, but

yesterday. You'll see some people, but like a lot of, you know, MAGA blogger 420 also are asking him questions, you

No, this is a a great point and it's one of the things that he's done differently this time around is the White House has more or less hijacked the press pool over the objections of the White House Correspondent Association. They kicked

Correspondent Association. They kicked AP out early on um for not saying Gulf of America and since then now the White House picks who's in the pool every day.

So you're right, Trump still takes a lot of questions but here's where it's changed in two ways. In the first term, he held a lot of like formal news conferences where everyone was in there and reporter reporters from every

outlet, even in his estimation, the lamestream media could ask him questions. He stopped doing formal news

questions. He stopped doing formal news conferences this time. He still takes a lot of questions, but only from the pool. And since his staff is picking

pool. And since his staff is picking who's in the pool, largely he's facing friendly faces who are asking him less than tough questions. There are

exceptions. There are certainly there are days where whether it's on Air Force One or in the Oval Office or we saw yesterday in the cabinet room, he does take questions from >> the Bloomberg was in there. His coner

piggy like you know.

>> Yeah, there there are moments where to be sure there are moments where he takes tough he does take tough questions but there are fewer and further between uh than last time around.

>> Some evidence of your thesis. It's nice

when you write a piece and then you know it gets proven accurate to a degree the next day. You know, does that feel good

next day. You know, does that feel good as a journalist? Um Trump has a has one of the uh cabinet meetings yesterday and um he had more of those this time it feels like the made for TV cabinet

meetings. The few less time spent in

meetings. The few less time spent in Georgia. a lot a lot of time um having

Georgia. a lot a lot of time um having people tell him how great he is in the cabinet meetings and um and it the bubble element of this like is just kind

of abundantly clear both in just obviously the oh you're so great sir you're so great like the North Korea stuff but also um he's dozing off he's seeming tired you can understand why he

might not have wanted to travel why it's easier just to go you know shuffle down to the cab to the cabinet room have people tell you how great you are seems a night, you know, take a little cat

nap. I'm I'm a napper, so that's fine.

nap. I'm I'm a napper, so that's fine.

But, uh, you know, it seems like he dozed off several times. It's usually

one little nap for me in a day, but he's looked like he got a couple of them during that count meeting.

>> Yeah, my own is I tried I usually inevitably have like a 15minute like early afternoon.

>> You're up on way too early post.

>> Yeah. I mean, I sleep in Look, the way too early days, the alarm would go off at 3:15. Now, with just starting at 6:00

at 3:15. Now, with just starting at 6:00 for morning Joe, like I get to sleep all the way into 4:30. Um,

>> 15 minutes for you. So, it's just are you in the suit? You strip down.

>> Honestly, Tim, it depends on the day. I

mean, this is going to, you know, some days it's just like leaning back in the chair. Other days it's more of a

chair. Other days it's more of a full-fledged. I'm going to lay down for

full-fledged. I'm going to lay down for a few minutes and, you know, be in my workout gear, whatever it might be.

>> So, we have two expert nappers here. So,

I think that we we bring some expertise to kind of assessing Trump's >> where I don't is in front of the press pool in the cabinet. Uh, and that is what President Trump did yesterday. It's

not the first time. There's been a few of these in in recent weeks. Uh the

Washington Post in particular has been on this beat uh noting when he was like really chronicling with video how long he appeared to have been uh asleep. But

I think the timing of this one is interesting because it comes just a week after the New York Times did a big story about his schedule and how you almost like a a dovetail piece with mine, but they really focused on the hours of the

day that he was working and they said, "Well, compared to the first term, he's starting later and his days are ending earlier." Um and the White House pushed

earlier." Um and the White House pushed back. We know President Trump hates to

back. We know President Trump hates to ever acknowledge any bit of human frailty, uh, including what part of his body he received an MRI. Um, but in this case, they said, "No, he's working all

hours of the day. Look, look how he's he's tireless. He's got the stamina of a

he's tireless. He's got the stamina of a much uh younger man." And then just days later, uh, this happened in the in the White House where he was clearly dozing off off, you know, off and on, you know, during what was a marathon three-hour

cabinet meeting.

>> Yeah. And and I mean I just think that objectively speaking >> he's pushing 80.

>> Yeah, he's pushing 80. Like objectively

speaking you have to that has to explain part of the travel stuff too and bubble stuff, right? It's just like who I don't

stuff, right? It's just like who I don't know. I've got you know anybody that has

know. I've got you know anybody that has anyone that's pushing 80 in their life know that like it's a it's a You got to change time zones. you get tired

and um and so like I I think that clearly they are either directed by him himself or you know in their management of him >> uh uh they're changing how to schedule.

>> I I think there's there's no no doubt of that that that he is much more White House centric in part because it is easier uh you know it is you know and he to take travel on anybody takes a toll.

You know I you know there were moments in the you know his first term where I'd be on a lot of his overseas trips. There

was a in the first year we went to Asia for literally two weeks and we're all running on fumes at that point. Like

there's no question about how old you are. Traveling is hard. Uh even for a

are. Traveling is hard. Uh even for a president uh but like it it is striking just how little he has done here. This

isn't a quirk of the schedule because I reported this in the piece. They talked

about this summer putting him out there to support the one big beautiful bill.

They talked about maybe doing some campaigning this fall. None of that came to be. he got distracted with foreign

to be. he got distracted with foreign affairs. He didn't want to be on the

affairs. He didn't want to be on the road and face questions about Jeffrey Epstein because that story exploded just as he was going to be out there uh this summer and instead he's opting for tea

rallies um which of course have far far far less impact.

>> Yeah. Although it's also kind of reminiscent of his OG strategy calling into the cable shows, calling to the talk shows. The uh you've never fallen

talk shows. The uh you've never fallen asleep one time during morning Joe. You

know Scarboro is on one of the saliloquies where he's talking five minutes, six minutes. You never just get a quick little quick little doze in.

>> I mean, occasionally I'll look at my phone and do Wordle, but no, I have not uh I haven't fallen asleep, at least not that I'm aware of. I'm hanging on every every word uttered by my uh by my

co-host. Um,

co-host. Um, one other I I just, you know, not to belabor the point here, but uh another thing that you might look to on on uh evidence that he is a little bit out of

touch, he starts talking about the affordability hill yesterday during the academy meeting. You see this um and uh

academy meeting. You see this um and uh he says that he thinks that uh voters are getting fake news from people like you about affordability. Uh

affordability is a hoax. It was started by the Democrats. Yeah, this is this actually dovetales with another piece that I wrote recently where suddenly

Trump 2.0 is starting to feel a lot like Trump 1.0 where for the first, you know, seven or eight months of this term. I

mean, you can agree with whether you know, you can argue whether you agree with what he did was was was good, but he was effective and and in sort of enacting his agenda and facing no push back from Congress, very little from the

courts, etc. In the last two months or so, he's a ton of roadblocks, including with a lot of unforced errors. And this

moment yesterday is just the latest time where he's really downplayed the affordability crisis. And that reminds

affordability crisis. And that reminds me of so many times in the first term where the White House would be positioned, staff around him would be like, "Okay, we're going to talk about this issue X, Y, or Z. It's important."

And Trump would just be like, "Ah, I don't want to." And just blow it up in the in the moment. And that's what happened here, too. The White House has actually prepared after the election results of a month ago recognized that

affordability is a crisis. Republicans

are going to have a problem next year during the midterms on that issue.

They're trying to prepare Trump to talk about it and he simply won't. He'll use

the word affordability, but it's always, you know, joined by the words hoax or conjob. He simply won't acknowledge that

conjob. He simply won't acknowledge that Americans are feeling the pain right now. They tried to do a clean up on the

now. They tried to do a clean up on the Venezuelan boat strike yesterday at the cabinet meeting as well where Higgs says, "Of course, as Secretary of War, I was watching the first strike and then I walked away. Then an hour or two or

walked away. Then an hour or two or later, this admiral makes the decision to shoot the people out of the sea." Um,

you know, I I guess that that's their kind of spin on the Washington Post story and trying their defense of of why they initially pushed back and said it was a total lie and they're enemy of the people. But, uh, I don't know if you had

people. But, uh, I don't know if you had anything else on that.

>> Yeah. No, it's clearly I Pete Hexath's under a lot of intense pressure right now. And we saw the day after, I'll

now. And we saw the day after, I'll remind uh everyone listen listening here, the day after that September 2nd strike, he went on Fox and Friends and boasted uh that he was there, saw the

whole thing, oversaw the operation, he was under his authority, he got this done. I'm paraphrasing only slightly.

done. I'm paraphrasing only slightly.

Uh, and that's a very different tone that we've heard from the last couple of days where he's clearly trying to point the finger at this admiral and and the white, you know, and say, "Look, this that was his call. Uh, you know, I

support him, but like I wasn't in the room. I wasn't involved." And but look,

room. I wasn't involved." And but look, the White House itself, Caroline Levit, the press secretary said this week like the order to kill them all as it were, you know, the the the sort of umbrella

order was issued by the Secretary of Defense and then like specifics were carried out by admirals and the like. So

HGth is still very much in the the focus here. And this week is going to be

here. And this week is going to be potentially really tricky for him. That

admiral, Admiral Bradley, is going to be testifying on the hill behind closed doors tomorrow. Also this week, the

doors tomorrow. Also this week, the signalgate report, the IG report from the Pentagon is being released to Congress this week. Uh, and at least a redacted version will be made public.

So, Hegath is is certainly the the temperature up.

>> Yeah. And Laura Loomer, who is, you know, besides you, the best reporter on the beat of letting us know what's happening inside the White House, uh, is talking about how there's a coup for Hag Seth, uh, the Secretary of Army, um,

potentially trying to angle for the slot. You wrote also recently just uh

slot. You wrote also recently just uh just kind of briefly run through a couple other things. You wrote about the DMZ for Ukraine and what the plan is there. Talk to us a little bit about

there. Talk to us a little bit about what what the what the White House is thinking about on that.

>> Talks there have truly have stalled yet again. It would appear. You know, there

again. It would appear. You know, there was seemingly some momentum about a week or 10 days back when when I wrote that piece in part because the White House may was making a new push to get a deal.

Now, what we then learned is that they were doing so with talking points largely provided by Russia. Uh and

Ukraine of course wanted nothing to do with it. Now Keev has has learned their

with it. Now Keev has has learned their lessons. They don't want to publicly

lessons. They don't want to publicly disagree with Trump anymore. They saw

how that happened when Trump blew up at Silinsky in the Oval Office. So they're

being much more diplomatic about it, but they've made it clear there things in that deal they just certainly could not uh agree to. You know, we heard Secretary of State Rubio stepped in the process. You know, struck a more

process. You know, struck a more supportive tone for Ukraine than perhaps Steve Wickoff has done. But yesterday

Wickoff and Jared Kushner were in Moscow. They met with Putin. Both sides

Moscow. They met with Putin. Both sides

acknowledge, okay, you know, we agreed to kept talking, maybe small progress made, no breakthrough unless Trump is gonna willing to step in decisively one way or the other. And and

your guess is as good as mine as to whose side we come in on. Uh you know, I think that that conflict is going to continue as is for a while and we're going to do this all again in a month or two.

>> Sixth meeting between our outer burrow uh Russia Ukraine envoy and Putin. Zero

trips to Ukraine for him. Did he get any presence yesterday? Putin has been

presence yesterday? Putin has been pretty good at like at buttering up Wickoff. Did he get any any paintings of

Wickoff. Did he get any any paintings of himself or anything >> or a medal? Um, no. He's done that before, but I'm not aware of uh what he had to declare customs coming back this time.

>> Another uh one of your colleagues today.

I just want to pop this. It's kind of related to what you see happening in Europe. Something you've been covering

Europe. Something you've been covering was is with uh with in Germany and uh you guys are at the Atlantic. For the

first time since World War II, Germany is permanently stationing troops beyond its borders. Not long ago, these plans

its borders. Not long ago, these plans would have set off international alarms. Uh but as the US upends the global order it created, Germany may have no other choice. I I this is something while

choice. I I this is something while while you know we're doing Groundhog Day on the Russia Ukraine negotiations, Europe is moving like things are changing and um and I just think this is

an interesting kind of tangible data point on that.

>> No doubt. My colleague Isaac Stanley Becker wrote a great piece on this and this shows you just how the world has changed because of Donald Trump's foreign policy and what Europe the

lesson Europe has learned over this last year in particular is they can't count the United States anymore and you know and it's not just because Trump's in office now it's that you know we they

had four years of President Trump then President Biden is elected basically on you know he come out of the gate saying America's back you can count on us again well that turned out not to be the case because Donald Trump was then put back

in office and it it is you know Europe has realized they can't just rely on us to be their security guarantor or their financial backing like that that these

nations are going to have to step up their own spending and that includes Germany which you know even a decade or two ago would have been unfathomable.

>> One last thing anything on this Honduras pardon you got and it is it's pretty it's so crazy. President Juan Hernandez of Honduras was officially pardoned or we said this was coming early in the

week, but that's not now happened. Um,

he was at the center of what authorities had characterized as one of the largest and most violent drug trafficking conspiracies in the world. I I I this is kind of a DGAF element moment I guess

for these guys like in the middle of bombing Venezuela over imaginary fentanyl. They're doing this this

fentanyl. They're doing this this pardon. It's pretty crazy. What are you

pardon. It's pretty crazy. What are you hearing on that?

>> Yeah. I mean, you'd be hardressed to find a Republican to defend this one. um

that that it it comes as first of all just how discordant it is that we're ramping up military operations against these boats off the coast of Venezuela and Trump threatened we might do land strikes in Venezuela in the coming days

>> in the press conference yesterday I should have mentioned that yeah meeting >> nominally about drug trafficking I mean I think there's more to it than that at the same time he puts out releases this guy gives a pardon to the president of

Honduras who prosecutors say ran an international drug cartel and who bragged about stuffing drugs up the nose of Gringo goes. Again, I'm paraphrasing only slightly. That's what he said. Um,

only slightly. That's what he said. Um,

I think that there's there's strange connections here with Roger Stone took his case. You know, Trump is is

his case. You know, Trump is is sympathetic to anyone who feels like he's been victim of a political prosecution, and there's no evidence that that's what this was, but that's what Trump has convinced himself. Uh,

also, the investigation into this president started during Trump's first term. Uh there's a crypto angle here as

term. Uh there's a crypto angle here as well where Honduras under this president was very offered safe space for some of these crypto tech leaders >> creating his crypto city you know Peter

Teal it was like you can you can buy and sell twink blood with cryptocurrency there you know there's just a lot of opportunities potentially >> there's a lot of opportunities to make money and that's probably at the end of the day what this was about. This is a

head spinning uh pardon and one you know that I'm I'm waiting to hear from like police unions and other law enforcement officials say, "Hey, this guy flooded our streets with drugs. How is this making us any safer?"

>> Yeah, I should correct President Hernandez though. We live in a

Hernandez though. We live in a pluralistic multicultural society. Okay,

the the drugs were going up the nose of people, not just Gringos, okay? Not just

Gringos. Um Jonathan Leamir, man, thanks for hopping on this morning. And uh

everybody else, stick around. I'm going

to talk about the Tennessee 7 race.

>> Thank you. Happy to come back anytime.

>> All right. Thanks, buddy. Jonathan

Lamir, one of the best. Um, I'm going to stick around and talk about the results we saw in the Tennessee special election uh last night. So, stay with me. All

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everybody, just wanted to nerd out with you a little bit on that Tennessee 7th uh special election last night. Um the

Republican there, Matt Van Eps, uh gets the win uh with 54% of the vote.

Basically, Afton Bin gets 45%. So, was a 9-point victory for Van Eps, but this is in a district that uh the margin in 2024

was 21 in the House, 22 at the presidential level. So, it's a 12 to 13

presidential level. So, it's a 12 to 13 point gain for the Democrats. Um, I

think that there's a lot of u potential implications about that looking ahead to the midterms. First, I just want to talk about Nashville a little bit because I was when I was interviewing um former

Vice President Harris there uh a couple weeks ago, uh she had just done a campaign stop for Bane. There's a little bit of um a little bit of controversy uh

there in Nashville about whether you know the vice president was wanted there. They didn't show up together, so

there. They didn't show up together, so there were no pictures. just this

question of like are we trying to focus more on turnout versus persuasion. Um

and then I thought it was interesting that after that whole dialogue in the final I believe it was the final day or final two days um she has a kind of um a

Zoom rally uh uh with uh with AOC and with uh Al Gore. Uh watched a little bit of that. There were some commenters

of that. There were some commenters calling for Gore to run in 2028. So you

better watch out there. Al Gore, I think, younger than Joe Biden or or uh or Donald Trump. Um so, you never know if you want to continue the gerontocracy. Um but like, you know, in

gerontocracy. Um but like, you know, in one of these special elections, I I think at this point, you're like trying to pull any lever you can get to try to get people to to realize that this is

happening. And and you saw in Tennessee

happening. And and you saw in Tennessee like a little bit higher turnout than you have seen in other special elections. um it was, you know, I think

elections. um it was, you know, I think about over 50% of the uh general election turnout uh showed up in the special when you're usually seeing something more in the 30s and 40s. And

so uh on the one hand, I think it's a good sign for Democrats and kind of in a higher turnout special, they still gain uh 12 to 13 points. Um, on the other

hand, you kind of see the down that you see how you get kind of stuck in these gerrymandered districts where like the higher the turnout is in a red district, the more that marginal voters is going to end up being a being a Trump person.

Um, but you know, I think we learned a little bit here. There's a lot of online um Aftton Bane was I think it's fair to say it's kind of more left on the left side of the party and the campaign

itself is pretty focused on affordability and so-called kitchen table issues um in her advertising. Uh

but but um you know in the primary she was the more progressive candidate. Um I

think she's doing an interview over at Breaking Points this morning if that tells you anything for folks who are familiar with those guys or kind of more of the lefty type horseshoe um uh uh

part of the of the media ecosystem. So I

think that's that's her spot. And so you see like some arguments between the moderates and the progressives online about how maybe a moderate could have done better here. Um and and and I I think that's probably true. like you

know I don't know that I don't think that a moderate would have won nine more points here like you know you can sort of see this argument where the progressives are like we outperformed by 12 the moderate is like well you need to outperform by 20 and so you know that's kind of a never- ending fight that's

always going to happen I don't know that we learned a ton about the internal you know neverending um uh internal civil war uh within the Democratic party about

the mobs versus progressives but I think we did learn a little bit about kind of where Democrats should be thinking about and focusing about their gains. If you

look at the map of Nashville, Nashville is this kind of weird um well I should just mention the gerrymander first. Um

for people who haven't heard me rant about this before, I Nashville is one of the most offensive jerrymanders in the country to me because Nashville doesn't have a Democratic rep which is crazy. I

mean the Davidson County, which is the main county where Nashville sits, um Bane won by 56 points uh in that in the portion of of the district that goes

into Nashville. Obviously,

into Nashville. Obviously, Nashville deserves a representative. Um,

instead, Tennessee is gerrymandered like pizza style. So, you have these like,

pizza style. So, you have these like, you know, the skinny part of the um of the pizza slice going into Nashville and it gets out and gets wider and wider and goes out into rural Nashville. And then,

you know, there like three or four different pizza slices that like meet in the middle of Nashville. And um and so this um you know, this was just kind of

one one slice of that of of that district. And so you know um like this

district. And so you know um like this is this is this is why I've kind of been on the side of like the Democrats just need to go fully whole hog in the gerrymandering war. We can talk in 2029

gerrymandering war. We can talk in 2029 if we you know if we're doing some reconstruction in this country. We're

doing some political reform. I'd sure be for some federal gerrymandering reform.

But in the meantime, you know, you got to play hard ball if they're going to you know carve up Tennessee to the point that Nashville doesn't have a congressional district. It's it's a

congressional district. It's it's a total outrage. Um but uh when you look

total outrage. Um but uh when you look at the results last night um you have like the inner core of Nashville uh you

know people that are like really really living downtown. Um

living downtown. Um which is again which is going to be younger people. It's going to be more

younger people. It's going to be more diverse demographics. Um, big gains from

diverse demographics. Um, big gains from the Democrats last night, pretty good, but like not as big as you saw in the inner suburban core where you just see

this massive like the Democrats now are I used to joke that the Republicans get Saddam Hussein like numbers in in red parts of the country. The Democrats are are getting close to getting Saddam

Hussein like numbers in like the the suburbs that are the closest to any big city in the country. And um the Democrats do that last night and run up

the score. Um, in that next ring though,

the score. Um, in that next ring though, you kind of the uh in in um in in Tennessee there, it's in Williamson County. Williamson is is a little bit of

County. Williamson is is a little bit of an outlier nationally where um you know, I'm trying to think about like if you're in New Orleans here, Williamson County

is Mie. If you're in DC, it's Fairfax.

is Mie. If you're in DC, it's Fairfax.

If you're like, it's the the big upper middle class suburb um county next to the city. and um and and and Nashville

the city. and um and and and Nashville has like attracted magaz there's something about I don't know if it's country music or Candace Owens and Theo Von or you know just kind of the

reputation that it is a place where if you're a conservative and you live in a blue pl part of the country like that's a place that you're you're going to be welcome if you want to move. Um, and so,

uh, Williamson County, it w is the highest, uh, educated county in the whole country that Trump won, I believe.

And Vaneps wins it handily by 20 points.

Uh, uh, Afton only gained seven points there. Um, so you look at that and you

there. Um, so you look at that and you think, well, that's really, you know, that that's going to be where the Democrats are going to have to, you know, focus on on their overperformance there. And I think that Williamson

there. And I think that Williamson County is maybe a place where the the moderate argument that having maybe a more culturally right candidate might have helped a little bit. Um but then

you look at the city and you see like and you see there's still just a little softness from the Democrats among young voters and among um uh you know voters

of color, black um black voters in particular, younger black men really in particular. And um and I think that you

particular. And um and I think that you know on that side of the argument, you know, you you see maybe the stuff is cutting both ways. So it's like a little bit of a challenge where you're trying to continue to run up the margins a

little bit more with some of the cultural conservative voters out in the exerbs um while also juicing what had been a traditional Democratic base.

Finding a candidate that can do both um is is is a little challenging. But all

in all, if you gain 12 points, all of a sudden you start looking at the map for Democrats and um and you can start winning in some unsuspecting places. I

keep saying you go back to 2018, Democrats win a House seat in Oklahoma City, in Charleston, um places that they

never won seats before. And I think that if you're looking at a place like this in Nashville, um, and you're seeing these gains, um, I'll just put this up on the screen for

people on the YouTube so you can see it, but like the New York Times, you see there's a shift from from 24 to 25 blue everywhere. Huge shift in Nashville, 20

everywhere. Huge shift in Nashville, 20 points to to the Democratic side. But

then even in the rurals, you're seeing moves of uh Dixon County 11 points. um

uh Humphre County 12 points, Perry County 15 points. You're seeing move significant moves to the Democrats and that I I think opens up seats. You know,

if you're a Republican and you won in the midterm last time by 10, 11, 12, 13 points, like you might have thought

yourself safe. I I don't I don't know

yourself safe. I I don't I don't know that you should think yourself safe anymore. You know, I'm I'm pulling up

anymore. You know, I'm I'm pulling up here. So, for folks who are looking for

here. So, for folks who are looking for um candidates and campaigns to support, if you're you're wanting to support Democratic candidates where you think you can actually make a difference, I get this question a lot from people. Um

I'll just go ahead and pull up the Cookpolitical.com ratings Dave Wasserman on uh over on Bwork Takes a few weeks ago. Um and him and Amy Walter, they're just they're

extremely good and they're nonpartisan, but they they have their these rankings.

And if you look at the rankings and you go to the category, it says lean Republican, likely and then likely Republican. Likely Republican is kind of

Republican. Likely Republican is kind of these stretch seats. Like these are seats that are probably going to go to the Republicans, but that in a big wave your Democrats could win. Um you look at

the Alask Alaska at large um Begage, they used to um you know, Mary Pela had that seat for a while. You look at that, that's certainly winnable. Um you look

uh here at uh at Colorado's third district um with uh which is currently uh which is the district Boowbert moved out of um that includes a lot of the

western slope potentially that's winnable Montana Zinci you kind of go down to the south Carolina Edwards um you look at so I would look at kind of

those um those likely Republican seats and um and and you know finding kind of the potential Democratic candidates.

There you go. Um, that's a little bit of analysis. It's it's unfortunate for the

analysis. It's it's unfortunate for the Democrats because I think right now everything's very tenuous in the House as far as potential retirements. I think

another result of this, you're going to see more Republican retirements, but you can't retire and quit like Marjorie Taylor Green is doing because it's putting their current House majority in jeopardy. Um, so, you know, I think that

jeopardy. Um, so, you know, I think that there are some uh some implications you're going to see there. Uh but you look at this, the Democrats are like, man, if the economy stays in the trajectory it's on, if the political

environment doesn't change for Trump, if he stays bubble wrapped, um it uh it could be ugly next year, and you start to see places like, let's just throw this out there, start see places like

these Senate races, Texas, Ohio, I mean, these are states statewide that Trump was not, you know, that was winning by about the gap that we saw, the shift

that we saw in that special election last night. So, this is not an apples to

last night. So, this is not an apples to apples comparison, but you can at least see that in theory those seem to be um potentially in play. Um and it looks at

least more plausible that the Democrats could compete in a place like Texas and Ohio if these trends continue um than it would have seemed uh a couple weeks ago.

So, uh that is some good news for the Democrats directionally. Uh everybody uh

Democrats directionally. Uh everybody uh appreciate that. I'm running to DC.

appreciate that. I'm running to DC.

We're going to have much more on this over on the next level feed. So, go

ahead and check that out. We're taping

that this afternoon. We'll be up I don't know that be up later tonight or tomorrow morning. Just just refresh.

tomorrow morning. Just just refresh.

Just refresh. Just kind of refresh.

It'll come up soon. And we'll be back tomorrow for a Thursday edition of the podcast. And we'll see you all then.

podcast. And we'll see you all then.

Peace.