Uncharted Territory Chats w/Ariel Hernandez

Just making sure you guys can hear me.

>> Yes, sir.

>> Yes, sir. We can.

>> All right. Sweet.

[cough] How you guys doing out there recently?

Pain in the ass or what?

>> Yeah. Pain in the ass for the most part.

>> Yeah. Yeah. This market's been tricky.

But, you know, we've I was kind of talking about this earlier today uh with fellas in the room.

Like if you were just to say objectively what would be the healthiest thing for the market? Because from my perspective,

the market? Because from my perspective, we've got Nvidia's earnings coming up this week. What exactly is set up

this week. What exactly is set up properly to take the market higher? Like

if I were to look at just like the equal weight ETFs or or just the ETFs in general where you're looking at the spider ETFs, it looks like industrials

could maybe go higher. Healthc care

stocks, biotechs, which you guys probably know like I do are some of the least entertaining names to trade. Um

because they they probably have some of the you know most risk attached to them.

Um so >> it's just hard to be a stock picker of those in that group, >> right? It's like, so either you own XBI

>> right? It's like, so either you own XBI or you own Lab View if you want it to be a little bit faster, >> right? Like look at XBI. I mean, that's

>> right? Like look at XBI. I mean, that's just an insane trend. Um, and Lab View's been obviously that much better because it's the leverage version of it. Um,

but I don't get excited like energy stocks is the other one. Like if I look at something like Dino, right? Do you

get excited to like park your money in Dino even though like, you know, it's in an uptrend? The fact it's in an uptrend

an uptrend? The fact it's in an uptrend despite how weak crude has been, you have to give these things a little bit of, you know, their credit. Like even a

name like PR, I don't know if you guys if this one just hit any of your guys' alerts. Um, but this thing is is

alerts. Um, but this thing is is awesome. It's in a beautiful uptrend.

awesome. It's in a beautiful uptrend.

Um, same thing with names like INSW, STNG.

Um, today I just saw lithiums picking up ALBS SQM. So, it's like and that's like

ALBS SQM. So, it's like and that's like a potentially a newer trend. Um, when

you're looking at lithiums, so it's just like it's not what we have just been shoved down our throat for the last five months. So, it's hard to make that

months. So, it's hard to make that switch mentally where it's like, okay, yeah, now I'm trading commodities, >> right? Where I was just in I was just in

>> right? Where I was just in I was just in Robin Hood for the last five months or Tesla or Nvidia or AVGO, TSM, right?

WDC, like just these beautiful nice growth AI data center buildout, your Iron, your Hut, your BE, right? like it

all made sense because it was all attached to the same theme and now all of a sudden here comes Eli Liy out of left field and it's the strongest trend in the market and you're just like what

the hell like you know it's it's hard to mentally make that pivot. Um or even a name like again this INSW, this TNK, you know we could look at

these names and they're nice trends. Um

I'm just making sure. Can you guys actually see my screen?

>> Yeah. Yeah. Okay, cool. You know, when I look at this, this is a nice steady trend, but what's the issue with some of these names? They trade 20, 40, 50

these names? They trade 20, 40, 50 million bucks a day, right? It's not on everybody's radar. They're not sexy, but

everybody's radar. They're not sexy, but they're in just these steady trends. Um,

so I I'm having a little bit of a hard time. And I just got off of really nice

time. And I just got off of really nice shorts. So, I still have some myself,

shorts. So, I still have some myself, but I just got off of and I shorted Cipher to perfection. Um, the day this thing had this big pick up in volume on

earnings at 25 bucks, I shorted it into that high at 25, risking off of highs like 256, and I just covered most on

Friday into that pre-market wash out.

Um, Oakllo, I have a 146 almost as just a very classic head and shoulders pattern. um and that that kind of failed

pattern. um and that that kind of failed to break out above the 20 simple moving average and then Regetti um I actually traded this one twice um into this kind

of I I put out a tweet a few months ago where it was like I didn't think these names had to go parabolic and I know Brack you talked about this where like

you've studied the parabolic short setup intensively.

We haven't really had a true parabolic blowoff move.

The rare earth's AMY, which I shorted well, but I didn't catch the second leg.

Um, and then before that like MSTR and I didn't think that the market was going to give the crowd what they wanted because these names had so much

attention that it was like, okay, here's the parabolic regretti 70 from 55 one day and then you get the big failed breakout um at 70 on a giant pickup in volume and the market's telling you the

move is done.

>> I didn't think that it didn't make it easy on the way up. I didn't think it was going to make it easy for the longs on the way down. And I'm assuming just based on the way it broke down, there's

probably a lot of people who just hung on just saying, "Well, it's above the 10day. Well, it's above the 20-day. Oh,

10day. Well, it's above the 20-day. Oh,

okay. It's bouncing. It's

consolidating." And then it just rolls over some more. Um, and it's this second leg that really, really sped up, which probably is where everybody started to close out that position. So the market

has not made things easy at all. Um I I would say

at all. Um I I would say you know even since Bitcoin started to lag um once Bitcoin started to lag you know you almost had to be open to the

idea of playing both sides of the market. Um because once things get 8 9

market. Um because once things get 8 9 10 12 15 times its average true range from the 50 you're just so far extended

there's like no more meat left on the bone. So, um I don't know. It's it's

bone. So, um I don't know. It's it's

names like today like EOS where I'm coming into today going, "Okay, maybe it's a little short or maybe it's a

little soon to initiate new shorts and it's maybe just a touch early to get some fresh longs on breakouts.

>> But if an EOS can bounce from the 50, then maybe we've got something. And here

we are. we're resting right on the 50-day, you know, do we at least get back above intraday VWAP, you know, and then have like a nice little, you know,

50 cents of risk um to maybe try and sneak back into a name that ultimately looked pretty good just 10 days ago.

>> Yeah, >> great.

>> Fantastic. What? Dude, this was like a beautiful little bull flag where you're like, "Okay, big move up. Has done

nothing wrong." All while rare earths, quantums, nuclears just got their asses kicked.

I guess the only issue when you would look at an EOSE is an AMX didn't hold up all that great. Um QS is just I mean I'm

going to give QS a little bit of credit, too, but it looks kind of like nothing, dude. It just looks like a bunch of

dude. It just looks like a bunch of nothing.

So, you know, does EOSE ultimately fail?

I don't know. But if you're above the 50 simple moving average, I'll try to not argue it with I'll try to not argue with it too much. Um, and see if it wants to

give a bounce. But it's been tricky. Um,

because even today when I tell myself, you know, Ariel, it's it's maybe you don't want to short, you know, after the market's already had this 5% down move.

But again, I'll I'll toss this over to you guys.

What is set up to actually go higher? I

saw the move in Google today, but like it does Amazon bounce and help the market. I see Apple still holding in

market. I see Apple still holding in there. Microsoft kind of looks like

there. Microsoft kind of looks like trash. Meta kind of looks like trash.

trash. Meta kind of looks like trash.

Like what is are the are the memory stocks still a little too far gone? Like

I don't feel comfortable longing SNDK here or MU or WDC or STX. I mean, what say you guys? like where's your eyes at that would make you comfortable to be

like okay this group could carry the market higher >> um well you know I mean first [clears throat] obviously you know you you hit the healthcare names the energy

names the chemicals um the bio the biotechs but again are those obviously don't have the waiting to move you know like a like a QQ like you said the the the things we've been you know paying

attention to um I still really like the looks of some things like Snowflake and uh MDB um for the most part those are you know

two I think of two extremely attractive looks. Um AMD still looks you know

looks. Um AMD still looks you know really attractive up here if this ends up um you know I I I don't know what this would need to do to fail. You know,

I I thought earlier last or later last week, it was a little bit susceptible um you know, following the kicker candle gap up on Wednesday to kind of not following through a little bit,

especially on Thursday. But, you know, uh AMD looks, you know, really quite good. Um even something like uh ASML,

good. Um even something like uh ASML, which is still just coming off of the bottom. It's hard to say.

bottom. It's hard to say.

>> Love this name, by the way. This is like a moat.

>> Oh, yeah.

>> Yeah. This name's got a moat attached to it. So, with the lithographs. Yeah. And

it. So, with the lithographs. Yeah. And

bouncing right off the 502, which by the way is just my thinking. Does an AMD just need to get through Nvidia's earnings and does it just need to go sideways for another two weeks? Like if

Nvidia were just to give like a failed move higher on earnings, but AMD that just equals more sideways. That's the

best case scenario.

>> Yeah. I mean the the big thing for me was I mean if you look back at the cues in August we we kind of had like that double bottom at the 50-day. I mean the credit the correction was pretty similar in in percent turns around you know five

to six%. But if you look at the cues,

to six%. But if you look at the cues, you know, late August, I mean, look at some of the bases that were out there and like quantums and nuclears. Even the

memory stocks hadn't even broken out yet at that time, >> right? And not necessarily like do I

>> right? And not necessarily like do I think the quantum could take the market higher at that point, but like that just goes to show the risk appetite that people have, right? Which is really important for like a good trading

environment, right? I mean, just go look

environment, right? I mean, just go look at some of those bases. And they're not a base like Snow or AMD that's like, you know, inching higher high, higher high.

These were like descending bases, right, with like VCP patterns like MU and and SNDK and NQ. Okay, low.

>> This was Yeah, Oaklo I bought on 911 and it ended up being an awesome trade in two weeks, right? Do we have any of that

right now? like NQ I thought was you

right now? like NQ I thought was you know this is like for for like this speculative money this is as gorgeous as it gets going into I think this was on

nine 99 I mean that's as good as it gets right um as low risk of a effectively like a kicker candle before a base

breakout on an O andQ do we have that right now I don't know that we do and it's like the momentum is in names in

the in the biotech sector, which is just the last place I really want to sit there um and get aggressive. I mean, I

just put this list out um of biotechs and like these are ex like NKTR.

Yeah.

>> Like, is this really what I want to get into? No. But this is setting up a new

into? No. But this is setting up a new base after a nice move, right? Really

big move and a fresh new base.

Like, am I supposed to argue with that or am I just going to wait for like the XBI and Lab View to just tighten up one time so I can get involved? Like, I

don't know. Um,

so yeah, we I don't know that we've got enough bees out there um to to like spark up speculation money flooding back into the market because when it leaves

and it gets the colonoscopy that it just got over the last two weeks. I think it really intimidates traders to like get back and get like when it's working,

it's really working and like buying begets buying and everything's going nuts. But when it unwinds and something

nuts. But when it unwinds and something happens to traders like UAMY for instance, right, who just held this bag going

down. Now all of a sudden, you know, you

down. Now all of a sudden, you know, you know what happens? Like emotions take them to the whole other side of the spectrum which just says, "I'm not touching it. These things are zeros."

touching it. These things are zeros."

All of a sudden now they're all zeros, but they were buying them at 16, you know, a month and a half ago. Um, so

yeah, and from just a trading perspective, I don't see enough highquality bases that's just going to either reignite speculation

at at best at best. I'm looking at Bitcoin and I'm saying, have you washed out enough question mark that maybe you can start to bounce an MSTR? Maybe

Coinbase starts to come back around. you

know, maybe that kind of helps some of the um Bitcoin miners that didn't quote unquote move as um data center plays,

that kind of thing, right? Doesn't NBIS

come around? Does Oracle hold the 200?

Does Core Weeb stop getting absolutely destroyed?

But we're asking as swing traders for like the wrong thing, right? Like we're

we're asking for stocks to rebound off of getting destroyed. We're not asking them to like continue an uptrend because they're not in one, right? They're in

downtrends and we're asking for bounces as possible trades, not for trend continuation, right? If we're looking

continuation, right? If we're looking for trend continuation, you know, that's in Dino.

Who the hell wants to be in Dino? You

know, SF Sinclair, is that what they are? HF Sinclair. Like, is this really

are? HF Sinclair. Like, is this really what we want to be in?

>> Yeah, it's the gas stations with the little green dinosaur.

>> That's what I'm saying. So, it's like, is that what we want to be in? Well, and

then if you like zoom out, and I talked about this last week, this X SOM base is as big of a base as you're going to find in the stock market.

>> That's what it's starting to kind of pop out a little bit.

>> It sure is. And look at what they did with PR today. Up 10%. You know, look at what um um I mean, dude, the list goes on and on. Like look at >> Did you Did you grab any of these uh

today or last week?

>> No. No. I I haven't been able to get like P R by the time it like hit my radar today. I was like what's this

radar today. I was like what's this candle for? Yeah. Gone. Gone.

candle for? Yeah. Gone. Gone.

>> It must it must be like a some chat room. I think some bigger chat room I

room. I think some bigger chat room I bet. I alerted it.

bet. I alerted it.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Mark Mini. [laughter]

>> Honestly, it might might be.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. It really feels like for for like oil and gas names to me like I always thought that you know if I was ever going to trade these I would need to have some sort of underlying strong like conviction tied to them versus like a be

and I feel like to get that you would need to have been looking at these and positioning into them like in midocctober early October like paying attention to these before you know these are really taking off now which was

tough given the opportunities that we had and like the momentum side of the market at the time like why would you have been paying attention to these a month ago? You wouldn't have you

month ago? You wouldn't have you wouldn't have because >> now you have everybody coming to these now all at once.

You know, >> I'm a bigger fan of buying commodities off of ascending moving averages. So

almost buying them when they're disliked. So you're buying these

disliked. So you're buying these pullbacks um or or effectively, you know, when an XOM gives you just a really nice technical pullback right into an ascending 20-day, ascending

10day. uh the deeper the better

10day. uh the deeper the better sometimes the 50-day but you just look at XOM the 50 I know that they're one of the biggest net gas producers in the

world so while we get solar and nuclear really up to par to power these data centers we need the power and we need it

now gas seems to be the easiest resource we have to kind of so because I'm looking at crude oil and there's just 0%

pants. This is moving higher because of

pants. This is moving higher because of crude oil, right? Like I'm looking at X SOM and I'm going this isn't going higher because of crude. So it has nothing to do with their crude business.

Well, what else do they do? Knack ass.

Okay, that makes sense. What would that be used for? Powering the data centers because we need that power like yesterday. Um, so that makes some sense

yesterday. Um, so that makes some sense to me as to why these names could be going higher. um which is like the best,

going higher. um which is like the best, you know, when you've got like a nice technical chart and then like I always kind of say what do the technicals say?

The technicals just say they're trying to go higher. Well, what's the thesis behind that? And then like you kind of

behind that? And then like you kind of come up with something good and then you like buy that breakout and it starts to work right now. I just like hang my hat on that, you know, that thesis that you're like, well, that's probably how

you felt on be. like you knew a little bit of the story, but then once the technicals aligned, you're like, "Oh yeah, I'm going to buy this with both hands." Because and now I'm green and

hands." Because and now I'm green and now you just don't let that sucker go because you've got, you know, you're on to technicals that are working and a thesis, you know, that is kind of

backing up what those technicals are saying. So, we'll see if, you know, it

saying. So, we'll see if, you know, it ends up being a knack ass story, but there's a lot of that going on. And then

healthc care, dude. I don't want to like I like Lily, you know? I saw like ISRG.

Okay, fine. Um I saw TMO is another one.

Um I think Abby was another one. Like

>> Amgen Amgen looks pretty good too right now.

>> Amgen had a nice base like or base breakout I want to say like I don't know about five like six or seven days ago maybe.

uh AMGN.

And I thought this thing looked pretty dang good. Yeah. Right through I don't

dang good. Yeah. Right through I don't even know what day this would have been.

Um 11:5. Yeah. I mean, it looks great, but

11:5. Yeah. I mean, it looks great, but you you know, are you going to buy Amgen or are you just going to call up the grandmother and be like, "Grandma, I got a play for you. Buy am you know

[laughter] what I mean?

>> Man bought that on that day over over >> over 305. Yeah, it looks good. It looks

It really looks good. And if you bought it properly, fine. You're in there. Um,

but it's not like you were thrilled like you would have been like when I bought my Tesla breakout in at 360.

>> Yeah.

>> Right. It's not like, "Hey, man. If

you're not leveraged in this thing, you don't have enough, right?" Like, you're not sitting there telling yourself that with Amgen. Um, but here you are. It's

with Amgen. Um, but here you are. It's

working fantastic. And I don't really care for them. Like they just don't. It

It's almost easier to catch Cipher on a 40% fade than it is to catch MGEN on a 40% up move.

[laughter] Like I want to say MGEN in like the same amount of time Cipher dump dumped 50%. This thing is up 12. You

dumped 50%. This thing is up 12. You

know what I mean?

>> Oh yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> So it's not exciting. Um

>> you talking about any of the um uh Latin American uh groups like uh Brazil, Argentina? So Val was one that kind of

Argentina? So Val was one that kind of came across my radar and then I was looking today at the EWZ. Yeah.

>> Identical. I mean this chart is it's identical, right? So, it's like, you

identical, right? So, it's like, you know, money is going into and then it's not just um it obviously Argentina and then my favorite is when you'll see a

name like YPF and then you'll also see like um a GG and they look fairly similar with the gap up when Argentina had the gap up and

then these names have either just been hanging out and doing nothing wrong after the gap up and just kind of digesting. And I look at a GGAL and I

digesting. And I look at a GGAL and I go, you know, I mean, super super tight inside day, resting right on the 200.

Argentina is acting well, you know, and tonight I'll probably set alert right at today's highs. And if we start to take

today's highs. And if we start to take that out, this could very well be a name that you're buying uh tomorrow if the Argentina um ETF continues to act. Well,

because it's more of a it's not moving because of the group that it's in. It's

moving more so because of the country it belongs to.

>> Yeah.

>> So, yeah. Um

>> Yeah. That's why So, I got I've got a chunk of um basically like God, I forget who that guy is um in the market wizards books where he spots like a theme and

he'll buy like 12 of the stocks in the theme and he'll see which ones stand out. You know, you know what part of

out. You know, you know what part of that I'm talking about?

>> No, but I do remember um that that being mentioned before in that book. Um, I

don't know exactly the trader, but Stan Drunken Miller does the exact same thing for what it's worth. Um, Stan Drunken Miller, even the first time Argentina took off, Stan Drunken Miller just tells

his trading desk, "Just buy me the five most liquid and then and then we'll do our research on these companies and figure out which ones we really want to keep.

>> Invest and then investigate."

>> Yeah, that's exactly right. Um, and Stan Dunkin Miller does the exact same thing.

And for him, you just got to go to the five most liquid.

>> Y >> um but I I do like that idea. You know,

I don't know about buying 12 of them, but [laughter] >> you know, no, it look it makes it makes sense, right? you get you get like a

sense, right? you get you get like a little 8% of your portfolio in all of them and then it gives you like a day or two or three to just like kind of sit with them and do your homework on whi

which ones are actually trying to act best, which ones actually have good fundamentals, good earnings in sales, um and are showing the best relative strength, you know, next to maybe peers in their group. Like I remember there's

been times where you know it's uh and I want to say it was like YPF when like crude oil was doing nothing and YPF was you know in this uptrend. I mean guys I

know you remember this crude oil was doing nothing in 2024 yet was in a really nice uptrend or or was it YPF? Uh

yeah and GG. Let's pull up YF was the monster of the group.

>> Yes it was. Yes it was. I mean, but this isn't very very, you know, kind of sloppy but >> you know, all of 2024, >> a nice steady up, especially when it came out of, you know, this last

consolidation >> just and just perfect, too. I mean, just a beautiful little set of higher lows, nice and tight coming out of a base and then you get this, you know, really,

really nice acceleration um into the end of 24. But yeah, I mean, I I like that

of 24. But yeah, I mean, I I like that idea, too. and EWZ is probably the ETF

idea, too. and EWZ is probably the ETF that most stands out. So, Brazil, um, at the moment, if you like really really zoom out on Brazil, um, and we can kind of go like five

years, it's just been stuck in this sideways base. [clears throat]

sideways base. [clears throat] Probably good to go back even further.

Um, just stuck in this really sideways base and it kind of feels like emerging markets can outperform ours for just a little bit. like we have we haven't

little bit. like we have we haven't really had that for a while now. Um it's

been US dominance for quite some time.

>> First year in like 15 years of of of notable move of the the emerging markets notably outperforming this year like this year.

>> Yeah.

>> Since I think like 200 I don't know like 2010 or 2009 or something. Um

yeah 2009 I think. Um anyways, uh ECH2, um the Chilean ETF, uh very similar. Um

and this is one that >> at highs already.

>> Yeah. So this is a country that has yet to be um doed if you will. Um so that's kind of I mean that's kind of like the behind [clears throat] like the the the

philosophy kind of behind Argentina, right? coming in and getting rid of the

right? coming in and getting rid of the corrupt government, you know, kind of u uh ramping up uh capitalist uh philosophies, if you will. And, you

know, they're seeing the impacts, especially in Argentina being first. And

slowly and slowly, each of the other, you know, Latin American companies are um you know, get electing party representatives that are more of the you

know, full capitalist agenda. and Chuk

Chile is one of them that that >> and already at highs too. Let me ask you something. Does this one become um a

something. Does this one become um a news failure when they do elect they do?

Is it running a little too prematurely?

>> Yeah, very possibly. In fact, I actually think they either just had their elections or they're just having it coming up. I didn't think that when you

coming up. I didn't think that when you hopped on were going to talk about the Chilean elections.

>> Dude, we're I mean, we talk about anything, man. If it's going up, it's

anything, man. If it's going up, it's interesting. If it's going down, it's

interesting. If it's going down, it's not so interesting. So,

>> hey, Ariel, I have a question. Um for

anyone who like in the group may be wondering um what are you know typically when you get like the end of a you know an upcycle in the market and we're in a period like this what are some of the first things you like to look for is

just some basic you know foundations to maybe start getting back involved or interested in that side of the market that you do enjoy trading right >> yeah so so naturally you're going to make the most amount of money being long

biased so that's the first thing that I want to do is where is money going unfortunately right now it's going to healthcare it's going to biotech, right?

It's going to some energy stocks. Fine.

I can get behind the knack theme, but it's like it's tough with biotechs. So,

like unless you're just going to own Lab U or XBI. So, and and even utilities right now, like they're just not that thrilling. Um even though some of them

thrilling. Um even though some of them are still acting well, like even when you look at a a GEV, it's just building a out a whole new base, which is fine.

Um, but the ideal scenario, and it's good for everybody to remember this, the best time to buy stocks is after a market correction, right? The bigger the

better, right? Because while the market

better, right? Because while the market is correcting, longs aren't working. You

can't get really long because progressive exposure isn't working. So,

you you can't get long with a 10% position. You're just getting stuffed.

position. You're just getting stuffed.

And so, you have to size things down.

And you're just getting no traction. No

traction. No traction. Meanwhile, the

market's coming down. The best thing that could happen is the market gives you a 10% plus correction, right? I

think that that's like especially when you think about the QQQ from April low to highs. I think it was up like 58%.

to highs. I think it was up like 58%.

And and I was actually just looking at the QQQ today and I kind of mentioned um and again this would be like my fantasy and let's kind of go over what my fantasy would be. It'd be Sydney Sweeney

coming over. No, I'm kidding. Um, let's

coming over. No, I'm kidding. Um, let's

go. [laughter]

No, no. We're Let's be serious. Um, so

it would be I'm I'm about to be a married man. So the April correction

married man. So the April correction went to where? Right. It went right to the 2020 uh one highs effectively,

right? 2021 2022 we bounced right off

right? 2021 2022 we bounced right off that level. Okay. And that was an huge

that level. Okay. And that was an huge opportunity because you started to see relative strength in what? Robin Hood,

Palunteer Nvidia Crowdstrike Netflix Spotify, Uber, right? The list goes on and on. Some CLS. Some turned out to be

and on. Some CLS. Some turned out to be much bigger winners than others. We

could all agree you weren't going to catch them all. But it wasn't that Uber and Palanteer and these names corrected the most. It's just that when we got to

the most. It's just that when we got to the lows of April, if you actually go back and look at a Crowd Strike, you look at a Palunteer, you look at a

Tesla, they refused to break March's lows. So, the market put in a low on

lows. So, the market put in a low on March. In April, it really washed out

March. In April, it really washed out below that level. And I guess we'll just zoom in on the daily really quickly, and we'll see exactly how this played out.

So you had a low in March and then a really big wash out going into April.

Well, what really didn't you see with a Netflix for instance, right? You didn't

see this giant wash out. So here's your March low and then here's your April low. I mean it it hardly broke the low

low. I mean it it hardly broke the low and instantly reclaimed it. So it was already showing you way more relative strength versus the market than other

stocks. Well, what else did the exact

stocks. Well, what else did the exact same thing? Crowdstrike did the exact

same thing? Crowdstrike did the exact same thing, right? Where you put in your low in April or sorry, in March and then

your low in April was a double bottom.

It was a double bottom. So, in my ideal scenario, and this is like just me hoping and praying, it's we just got a 60% up move in the Q's. We're down four

or five%. If the market goes sideways

or five%. If the market goes sideways for another two, three weeks and corrects via time, I think that then we could just start to say to ourselves,

what stocks are holding up best for when the market starts to break those names out, give you some follow-through, and then I go, I use progressive exposure.

So, I take a 10% position on an earnings gap up and the market follows it through. I miss an earnings gap up, but

through. I miss an earnings gap up, but I'm able to buy the high volume close and the market follows it through. I'm

able to buy a low cheat setup where it like looks like it's about to try to break out but it's like kind of in this lower consolidation and it tries to break out and I get it and it starts to

work and the market is giving me feedback. Okay, that's one option.

feedback. Okay, that's one option.

Market just goes sideways here digest chops people up for the next 3 four weeks and then we go. Option number two is similar to what we just saw in April

where the wash out bounces right off of 2021 and 2022's highs. In my dream scenario, we go back and we bounce at this year's highs,

right? So, we give a lot of this, not a

right? So, we give a lot of this, not a lot of the move back, but call it about half, right? Where we just went up 60%,

half, right? Where we just went up 60%, but now all of a sudden we can go down 15%.

Right? And that won't be enough for CNBC to call it a bare market, right? And so

we don't have to worry about that. Um,

and by the way, best to listen to CNBC on mute, but we're we get we get a 15% correction and then during that correction, call it of 10% or more. Then

we just wait for the classic Bill O'Neal follow-through day where the market gives you a low, it bounces for two or three days. on that third or that fourth

three days. on that third or that fourth day, you get a pickup in volume over prior day high. And when you go and do your nightly process, do you have a few

stocks that are buyable coming out of a tight range where you can limit risk?

Right? Because the job is the same every single night, no matter what the market's doing. Where's money going?

market's doing. Where's money going?

Where's money leaving? What are the technical setups that I've learned? a

bounce and an undercut and a reclaim of a key moving average, a break of a little range, a earnings gap up, a high volume close, a low cheat setup, an undercut and rally. Okay, so you've got

your playbook of the five setups that you like to trade. Now, stick your eyes onto the groups that are acting best, right? So, say to yourself, there's 197

right? So, say to yourself, there's 197 industry groups. Limit your eyes to the

industry groups. Limit your eyes to the top 30 and top 40 groups in the market.

Don't deviate and start looking at the stocks that have gotten beaten up the most. Start to look for the stocks that

most. Start to look for the stocks that are acting best when the market has gotten beaten up the most. Because if

the market just does what it does all the time, which is historically just channel higher over time despite big ugly pullbacks, we want to know what are the stocks that institutions have

refused to sell or what are the stocks that they have accumulated.

Once that's done and you've got your list and you bought something and it works, you buy the next thing and that works, you buy the next one and that works and you buy the next one. And in

the ideal scenario, market goes down 10%. Market then gives you a

10%. Market then gives you a follow-through day on day three to four off of the lows and then you've got buyable stocks. And one of the best

buyable stocks. And one of the best things ever is I remember and I'm sure you guys remember this correction too.

Do you guys remember the correction in 2023 where it was just the most about it for like probably an hour today.

>> Yeah. So, you get the most perfect three ways down. You get your follow-through

ways down. You get your follow-through day on November 1st. And what did you get? You got a buyable stock breaking

get? You got a buyable stock breaking out on earnings with deck right right here. And this was uh October 27th. So,

here. And this was uh October 27th. So,

the market puts in a low and this is already gapping up on good earnings before the market gives you a follow-through day. So all of a sudden

follow-through day. So all of a sudden you're like, "Wow, the market's still going down and deck is gapping up on earnings." Hm, interesting. I'm going to

earnings." Hm, interesting. I'm going to wait for the market to give me a follow-through day. How about AET? And

follow-through day. How about AET? And

then ANET, all of a sudden market gives you a follow-through day. And what does ANET do before that follow-through day?

On 10:30 or on Yeah. 10:31, it's at a new 52- week high. on the market follow-through day, it broke that high volume close on earnings day and then

just proceeds to trend that entire time, right? What about AMD? What did it do on

right? What about AMD? What did it do on November 1st, right? On that November 1st, it reclaims the 200. It has a hell of a move. And it's funny because if you

look at this, it looks a whole lot like the cues. Then the moment this thing

the cues. Then the moment this thing post somewhat decent earnings and the market is no longer in a downtrend, it's just triggered um you know, it's just triggered a follow-through day, you're

buying AMD back through the 200 and what does it proceed to do? Goes up over 100% from 100 all the way to 225. So there's

definitely things that I would prefer, which is give me a 10% correction followed by a follow-through day. That

would be like the best case scenario. Or

the other scenario is we're just patient for a few weeks, let the market chop around, you know, maybe let Nvidia gap down on earnings, freak everybody out,

build out a brand new base. And it sucks because I want to be active, too, but I want to be active in a great environment and have all of my money ready to go

when the environment changes.

And that's why recently I've been getting no traction on the long side. I

got stopped out of um I had ARC for five plus months, right? I bought this breakout right over here. I mean, you guys probably even saw me post that. I

bought a the Kathy Wood t-shirt >> and I, you know, I bought this thing in in um in June and it's a beautiful move, but then eventually I got to take my exit, right? You start to break below

exit, right? You start to break below the 50 simple moving average, you know, I'm out. Um, and so I'm out of ARC. Um,

I'm out. Um, and so I'm out of ARC. Um,

I got stopped out of Rocket Lab, which I bought, you know, coming out of this base as well.

So for me, I'm gaining no traction on the long side. I'm gaining traction on the short side. You know, shorting the names, the the spec stuff that got

wildly extended. And I got to thank you

wildly extended. And I got to thank you guys for because I was looking at like US.

Yep. I was looking at USR and you guys are like, "Yep, yep, y this is like right into my play." And I'm like, "This thing is perfect." Like look at all these gap ups in a row. I was

salivating. Um except

>> Yeah. Except the problem was he should have messaged me to tell me how much of a turn they were. Um because I covered it like at 13 bucks when it started to

take out a prior day high on >> Oh yeah. 10:22 and I missed this entire second leg down.

>> Yeah. So, actually what's interesting there on that one is because I think I made a post about this the other day. Um

whether it was I don't remember if it was the Substack or Twitter, but it's so interesting because you mentioned about like the RGTI and stuff like that that didn't give perfect parabolics, right?

And they actually made it hard. And it

seems to me that, you know, the groups that where it seems like the majority of the crowd wants to short them on the way up end up giving like a more difficult setup to short like the Quantums or

maybe the nuclears, but then you look at like a UAMY and US or like UMY, which like it seemed everybody was so bullish on these rare earth names at the time and they set up perfectly and just went

like bibless. Like dude, if I could show

like bibless. Like dude, if I could show you the DMs and the comments I got when I posted that UAMY post, I mean, it was absurd. like

absurd. like >> you're an [ __ ] You're an [ __ ] for posting these things, dude.

>> It it was an account that was made like two weeks ago that was dedicated to like UAMY only like some dude in my DMs and I was like I was like, "Oh my gosh." And

the same thing with MSTR in like November of last year. I mean, there wasn't a single person left bearish at those highs, right? And it set up perfectly. And I mean, SMCI, you name

perfectly. And I mean, SMCI, you name it, right? But and then you get a really

it, right? But and then you get a really crowded short like the Quantums and they make it much harder. You know what I mean? Absolutely. Seen it time and time

mean? Absolutely. Seen it time and time again. And not only that, actually it

again. And not only that, actually it was UAMY and the traction that I got on UAMY that made me go after Regetti,

>> right? It was like, okay, I just nailed

>> right? It was like, okay, I just nailed this thing. I've now got some money in

this thing. I've now got some money in my pocket to go and try right this this quantum names. And it was funny because

quantum names. And it was funny because I got burned on Regetti once on the way up and I shorted this on day one uh literally as a first red day setup and I

covered like a third of my position into the fiveday at like 51 bucks. And then

of course like it wicks up immediately and starts rallying like right from where I covered and I was like well the stops at high of day on the rest I'll have made money no matter what happens.

And then of course day two unwind and then just a steady unwind. And I ended up covering the last of my piece at 35 bucks. And I said to myself like I'm

bucks. And I said to myself like I'm just going to wait for a little bit of a rally to short which I did 42 and a half against this 20 simple moving average.

And they ended up stopping me out on 10:30 um with just an all day rally before it ultimately broke down and then I had to reshort it out of this little

bare flag. Um, so they never make it

bare flag. Um, so they never make it easy, but again, it's the same it's the same thing like you just said, you get everybody on one side of the boat and

all of the longs were even saying when these things go parabolic, then I'm done with it. But instead, the market's not

with it. But instead, the market's not going to do that for you. It's not going to give you this move to 75, let you exit everything, and then flip short.

No, it's going to make you think it's going to bounce at the 5day and continue higher. it's going to, you know, hold at

higher. it's going to, you know, hold at the 10 and then it's going to break below that and then you're going to be and all of a sudden you're at 55, 56, 57 and then you're at you're holding it

hoping it hopes holds the 20 at 43, right? And and all of a sudden you've

right? And and all of a sudden you've just burnt 20% plus of your gains in 5 days. So

days. So >> yeah, I have a question. So, uh, when it comes to like these shorts on the back side of that kind of momentum cycle, are you approaching them like a lot differently than than than longs in terms of like how long you're looking to

maybe hold them or or where you're looking to cover and stuff like that or take profits into ascending moving averages always makes me more comfortable like covering some off into

that or big wash outs like 3 to five to seven days like when we got this big move from, you know, from where I entered 55 all the way to 35. I mean,

we're talking like a 30 40% move in seven days, right? You can't be greedy because shorting is a game of diminishing returns, right? There you

you're not going to grow your money exponentially. Um like if something has

exponentially. Um like if something has a 10% down day followed by another 10% down day, it's not the same as it having a 10% up day followed by another 10% upday. Like you'll have always made way

upday. Like you'll have always made way more money on those backto-back 10% up days. So

days. So >> compounding. Yeah,

>> compounding. Yeah, >> exactly. So I like to cover some into

>> exactly. So I like to cover some into that weakness. Um, and then if I'm going

that weakness. Um, and then if I'm going to re-enter them, rejections off of key moving averages. So like pop back up and

moving averages. So like pop back up and then reject at that key moving average.

And then I'll just take it down to a fiveminute chart. And then I'll just

fiveminute chart. And then I'll just literally look at what I learned from Gil Morales, which is a 620 setup. So

you get your 6 EMA crossing back below your 20. And even on a bounce setup on

your 20. And even on a bounce setup on the long side, that's what'll happen first. You'll get your 6 EMA crossing

first. You'll get your 6 EMA crossing back above your 20, but at this point, it's already put in an intraday low. And

so I know exactly what my risk is when I go to enter. And then just dependent on the size that I'm taking is the dollar amount that I'm risking. Um, which I always like to know how much I'm

risking. Like I never just want to like

risking. Like I never just want to like a first red day setup. Very simple. You

got to be taking out prior days close in order for me to even take that entry.

Um, and then once you do, what's the stop to high of day? [clears throat] So they made like a rigetti fairly easily or fairly easy where you're shorting

just sub 56 and you've got $2 of risk.

You know exactly how many shares you can comfortably put on uh for that kind of setup. But again, even same day I'm in

setup. But again, even same day I'm in 55 and change. You go down to 51 and you give me like that 8% move in a day. I

did kind of I didn't really oversize it, but let me just go ahead and pay myself because it's been a pain in the ass. And

then I'll just look to ride it down to the 20. And I got I I posted some of my

the 20. And I got I I posted some of my um as like a review on X. Um

>> but I do like to just cover into that >> those monthly recaps. I mean those are great >> and I always do them because I feel like it's a really good example of you can be

wrong a lot and still do really well.

Dude, I don't have a 50% win rate. I

don't have a 60% win win rate. My win

rate's 38% this year and I'm crushing it. Um why? Because when I'm right, I

it. Um why? Because when I'm right, I just let things work like arc for 5 months. When I'm right, you know, I

months. When I'm right, you know, I catch a 30, 40, 50. When I'm right, it's Oaklo for 100%. So, and you don't have to. And when I'm wrong, it's peanuts.

to. And when I'm wrong, it's peanuts.

And people be like, well, you know, how are some of your trades 15K losses, but then your winners are 3 400? That's

because I'm just sitting there like I had in October, it wasn't until I closed my Rocket Lab trade, I had like 12 losers in a row. And that for for dollar

context was 350K.

But then all of a sudden I had one short on Regetti. It made up for those 12

on Regetti. It made up for those 12 losses in a row. And it's like think about that in terms of win rate. I've

got like a 9% win rate during that streak and I'm flat, right? Um imagine

>> beautiful statistics of of of risk-to-reward in trading. I mean, it's like we sit here and we go through like examples of either current trades or or previously taken trades or ideal optimal

opportunities that we that we wish we took and we like we didn't. Just kind of reviewing, you know, winners of the market. We're like, wow. Like, this is

market. We're like, wow. Like, this is something that we look at, we take all the time, a pullback to a rising 20, undercut, you know, the previous day's low and reclaim, you know, whatever that

entry tactic may be. And we're like, you could have gotten a$120 of risk. Here it

is four days later up $10.80 and and therefore like look look back at the past two weeks, you know, made it's been five, six trades, you know, losers

in a row, but wow, coming off of th those coming off of that correction or coming when finally got some traction, you just made up one trade in four days.

Y >> eight losing trades, 10 losing trades, 12. And and it was like the same thing

12. And and it was like the same thing because right around the same time that I took Regetti, like I didn't do anything different for my process on the long or the short side, I ended up hitting a Nugget as a huge short and I

ended up hitting UAMY as a huge short.

So now all of a sudden, if you just take those three shorts, Regetti, UAMY, and Nugget, I would then have to one of them got me to break even between the 12 losses and the other two just paid for

the next 25 trades. And it's like I'm and now I can lit I'm in the driver's seat for the month and I don't have to worry about um what you know what's the next opportunity. Like let things come

next opportunity. Like let things come to you. I I always say this your idea

to you. I I always say this your idea should stem from the bigger picture.

Your entries to get more granular entries can go all the way down to a smaller time frame because it's like everything is a fractal of itself onto a bigger time frame. Right? Things go up,

they go sideways. They go up, they go sideways. Like a 5minute opening range

sideways. Like a 5minute opening range break is almost no different than a break over prior day high. But when

things are all happening in unison where you go this looks like a gorgeous breakout and then the volume on the daily or this will be a gorgeous

breakout. If it does XYZ break out over

breakout. If it does XYZ break out over the range have a pick up in volume. Well

when you take it to the fiveminut chart it's a fivem minute opening range break and those two first fiveminute bars are trading a huge amount of volume. But now

the nice part is you know exactly where you're leaving if you're wrong, which is the low of the day. That helps you with your position sizing. And then and that's that's it, right? And it's like it's the bigger time frame where you're

going to make tons of money. The problem

is is when everybody comes from the day trading world and you know you guys get this, you guys get guys coming into your room, right? You guys might be some of

room, right? You guys might be some of you guys are maybe a little bit more swing focused. Some of you guys maybe

swing focused. Some of you guys maybe trade options. Some of you guys day

trade options. Some of you guys day trade. the day trading side of things,

trade. the day trading side of things, you need a higher win rate. Um, you

can't really have a low win rate in day trading. And part of the reason is

trading. And part of the reason is people tend to oversize their positions because they're fighting for a 2% move, a 1% move, a twominut scalp, a five

minute scalp. And ultimately, you're not

minute scalp. And ultimately, you're not getting a big move from your average, right? And I I even talked about this

right? And I I even talked about this today in the room. Imagine you bought the hood breakout as a day trader. Just

imagine how disgusted you would be at yourself if you bought this hood breakout and you sold it after a 4% up move because you got paid and then every

single day it did go higher. It closed

green, right? But you got chopped up every single day and you just gave back day one breakouts gains because you couldn't get repositioned in the thing, right? because it gaps up, it then, you

right? because it gaps up, it then, you know, kind of dumps and then it just wicks up at the end of the day or it gaps up, it dumps all day and then it wicks up towards the end of the day, but it's green at the end of every single

day. But a day trader can do nothing

day. But a day trader can do nothing with it. A swing trader took his entry

with it. A swing trader took his entry and he's done with the trade, you know, he trim some into that and then he's just done, hands off. Um, so it becomes really difficult because the one thing

as a day trader that you're always doing is you're always fighting for your entry because the moment that you click the buy button, price is very very close

from your to your entry. But if you bought Hood properly one time, by day three you're up six, seven bucks a share. You could just let it work on the

share. You could just let it work on the daily. You're you're done. But your

daily. You're you're done. But your

entry tactic came on the smaller time frame. you got that explosive price

frame. you got that explosive price movement away from your average and then when you oversize, you feel like you're really being compensated for that smaller time frame that you just want to

exit your position, see the green, go home with a smile on your face versus sitting in a position of uncertainty because you haven't taken any money off

the table. But when you size something

the table. But when you size something right, you're not really getting paid on a 5 percent on a 6 percent on a 10% move with a 10% position. But what ends up

paying you a fortune is watching your portfolio grow 15 to 20% on a 10 to 15% position in a name like Hood because you crushed the trend and just sat there

patiently. So

patiently. So >> I mean even just even looking at you know the the just the compounding effect as well. you know, you can pick a random

as well. you know, you can pick a random day once this was up over $100. For

example, uh on uh Monday uh uh September 8th on Robin Hood. Um this gapped up and and broke out of like another little

pattern um on Monday, September 8th. It

was up 17 bucks that day. uh the

compounding effect that it takes if you've got your position from down here at 46 47 48 bucks uh even 50 bucks that

$17 that day that was you know 16% is actually 30% or 33% >> when it's at 50 bucks.

>> Yeah, exactly. I [laughter] mean >> it's it's it's the compounding effect that that that takes place.

>> And I'm sure you're speaking from experience, April. I mean Ariel, you you

experience, April. I mean Ariel, you you used to day trade right when you first started. Absolutely. Yep. That's how I

started. Absolutely. Yep. That's how I That's literally how I got my start. And

it's funny because people go, "Well, you made so much money when you started."

Yes.

>> It was a lot to do with environment and very very little to do with what I know.

>> An anomaly kind of market.

>> Exactly. But there was a there was a lot of instances where I go, "Man, I would have made so much more money had I just held that trade." Right. Whether it was

AMC. I mean, I remember when I was day

AMC. I mean, I remember when I was day trading, I had 70,000 shares of AMC at like 217 or 220. I made seven grand that

day on a scalp. I was jumping for joy.

Had I waited seven trading days in pre-market, it was at 25 bucks, it would have been a million dollar winner, right? And so, it's just like, how much

right? And so, it's just like, how much more money did you just leave on the table because you were a day trader? But

problem is you oversize it. You make

seven grand. You make it in 30 minutes.

What other career can you make that kind of money in? The answer is like none.

And so you've oversized. You take your money off the table. You're done with the trade. You're not thinking about

the trade. You're not thinking about bigger picture. You don't understand

bigger picture. You don't understand that this is actually moving with GameStop as much as it is and that this thing maybe has a whole lot more room to go. Um, but again, a lot of these things

go. Um, but again, a lot of these things are learning experiences. I know that I would have done even better had I just made my first million bucks day trading and then switched to a swing trader like

right in the middle or ends of, you know, 2020 and into 21 versus yes, I did really well in 21, but I probably left another, you know, six, seven, eight

million on the table being a day trader.

Um, and then of course, you know, I I make the perfect topt tick transition going into 2022 as a swing trader. uh

[laughter] which that was a life experience. Um but

it was good because I did catch energy into 2022 but then the market was super super choppy and at this point you know I was learning from Gil Morales on the short side. I was learning from Mark

short side. I was learning from Mark Minervini in his room on the long side and it was just there's nothing to do here. There are no setups. They're

here. There are no setups. They're

stuffing. they're not following through and you can't gain exposure more to the market because progressive exposure is keeping you on the sidelines. And then

on the flip side, it's Gil Morales is going, "This thing is hitting this left side peak. It's rejecting. This is the

side peak. It's rejecting. This is the 620 setup. It's rolling over." So like I

620 setup. It's rolling over." So like I had a lot of lessons where things aren't working on the long side, but they are working on the short. And then that has kind of prepared me for what those

setups look like intraday. Um, so I can just take advantage of a 20 a 30% unwind. um and still kind of keep the

unwind. um and still kind of keep the equity curve. And it's the same thing

equity curve. And it's the same thing like when I want to get just like we started this conversation, the best time to buy stocks is after a market

correction. The best time to short

correction. The best time to short stocks is names that are showing relative weakness after the market has gone ballistic. which is why MSTR has

gone ballistic. which is why MSTR has actually been such a nice short because MSTR showing relative weakness while the market has just gone vertical. Now all

of a sudden the market starts to see a little bit of distribution.

MSTR hasn't survived, right? It's just

been total catastrophe for that name and the market's down 5% off highs, right?

But MSTR had been showing relative weakness going back to well we know when it peaked in November. We didn't know if it was ever going to set back up again to potentially go long. Right? So you

got to you know give it a chance to base. But when the market continues

base. But when the market continues higher and this thing starts to break down right considering the market is still going higher in August and

September and parts of October. Right

now all of a sudden you start to live below your 200. That's a huge red flag.

Makes for an very easy short. So, the

best time to buy stocks is after a market correction. The best time to

market correction. The best time to short stocks are names that are showing relative weakness after a big um advance in the market.

>> Yeah, that MSTR is almost like the opposite of like a beach ball underwater in a correction, right? It's like it's like if someone were to who who couldn't swim and like the NASDAQ is their life jacket, right? And then that NASDAQ

jacket, right? And then that NASDAQ starts to pull back and then you just start >> it's over with. MSTR MSTR has been wearing cinder blocks around its ankles for the last five weeks.

>> Yeah.

>> More. Um and so this move down is it so surprising, you know, when you just start to say, yeah, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ start to undergo a little bit of distribution and then it makes you

wonder how much worse does it get if the NASDAQ kind of plays out the way I was thinking? like can somehow give us that

thinking? like can somehow give us that 12% correction, which by the way, after a 60% up move, we should all welcome a 12% correction.

The problem is >> it would be natural. Like it wouldn't be uh it it'd be reasonable, >> dude. We're all junkies, though. We all

>> dude. We're all junkies, though. We all

want like something like we want more rare earths. We want quantum set up

rare earths. We want quantum set up again. We want nuclears to be ready to

again. We want nuclears to be ready to go again.

>> Those take a lot of time, >> but they're not. And that's the reality.

Like I would like to tell the dudes in my room, hey, you know what? These

things all look great. We're, you know, let's go. We're gonna go and buy XYZ and

let's go. We're gonna go and buy XYZ and it's gonna all be good. Like, is it Meanwhile, I'm up here going, you know, hey, TSM just hit the declining 50day.

I'm shorting it using the declining 50-day or really flattening 50-day, you know, as my stop where it rejects prior day high, it rejects the 50-day, it

rejects the 5day, and now we're just kind of doing nothing. I know we've got Nvidia earnings on tap, so I don't want to get too aggressive on semis.

>> Yeah, >> but semis could very well be the next group to pull along with financials. So

semi pull, financials pull, then it's just, you know, you might as well just buckle in because we're going to go down 10%. And then what happens from there?

10%. And then what happens from there?

Your guess is as good as mine. But I

know what I'm looking for. What I'm

looking for will be a follow-through day. The market will put in it slow. You

day. The market will put in it slow. You

don't know it's the low. It'll float

higher for two to three days, and then on that third or that fourth day, you'll not only have a pretty decent watch list, you'll then get a follow-through day in the market. and those names are

viable and continue to use progressive exposure. If you're wrong, you've only

exposure. If you're wrong, you've only got 20% of your account in the market.

If you're right, you're quickly 20% exposed and the market will give you more setups right away within like the next 10 days for you to go from 20% invested to 70% in 2 weeks. And the

first names that you bought should be acting really well because those were the names that were showing the most relative strength during the correction.

So that's kind of how I'm treating this environment right now.

>> Otherwise, it's just far too choppy to have conviction in like any one single direction here. It's like speculatives

direction here. It's like speculatives have already gotten their ass kicked and unless you're into shorting Costco um which also looks like it might enter into a stage four.

>> It does, >> right? Like there's nothing to do.

>> right? Like there's nothing to do.

Costco reminds me a little bit of like Sprouts um Sprouts Farmers Market >> where where it just kind of hangs out and hangs out and hangs out underneath

the 200 and then eventually, you know, gives way. Um also could remind me a

gives way. Um also could remind me a little bit of like this MMYT when the market was in an uptrend. this MMYT

doing absolutely nothing underneath the 200 for the longest time and then eventually just starts to give way and speed up. And that's how these things

speed up. And that's how these things go.

>> A year. I haven't looked at >> So, your activity and exposure is probably the lowest it's been in quite some time, right around where we're at now.

>> Correct. Yeah. also because I covered most of my shorts on Friday and today was literally a 5% portfolio ad on the short side to TSM and that's partially

because it's kind of looking like it's getting weaker. My gut tells me they're

getting weaker. My gut tells me they're coming for semis next, right? They don't

really spare anything during a correction. And also, and I could be

correction. And also, and I could be wrong, but you know, I'm risking like 1% to highs on TSM on a 5% position. So,

effectively zero risk. Like, even if I had a 100% of my account there, I'd be risking 1%, right? But I've got a 5% position there. So, I'm risking nothing

position there. So, I'm risking nothing to find out. Um, and really just to do something because again, just like you guys, I want to do I like to make some kind of money. And if that's what it

feels like is going on, then I'm gonna I'm gonna dip a toe even though I covered some shorts on Friday. And then,

you know, I'm I'm comfortable kind of shorting against that 50-day and it's like the tightest stop in the world. So,

>> and you obviously, you know, you don't Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Tier. Go ahead.

Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Tier. Go ahead.

>> No. [clears throat] Okay. So, with with stops and position, let's say, um, you're you you get a trade, how loyal are you to your stops? And I don't mean

that in in in terms of when they're hitting. I'm talking about you buy

hitting. I'm talking about you buy something at 100, your stops at uh 98 and here we are sitting 99.1 for a day and a half.

>> That's a great question and let me answer it like this. If 98 is my stop and we're at 9940 and it looks like it's coming down, the

next question I ask myself is how is the market acting?

>> If the market's acting strong and my stock's going down, relative weakness.

If the market's acting very very weak and my stock's hard, you know, and I'm down 60 cents on my shares and it's actually outperforming the market where

like the market rebounds on on for 30 minutes and my stock, you know, shoots right back up, then it's showing some relative strength, I want to be a little bit more patient. So, ultimately, it depends how my stock is acting versus

the market. Um, I think is like the

the market. Um, I think is like the easiest way to kind of make that determination. If the market's pulling

determination. If the market's pulling really hard, like a great example, so Oracle, okay, when I bought Oracle as a bounce

off the 50-day, I bought this thing on 10:23. Okay. Well, on the 24th and on

10:23. Okay. Well, on the 24th and on the 27th, the stock market saw new highs and Oracle was red both of those days and I was just like, that is

unacceptable, right? Like that is not the the because

right? Like that is not the the because on the 22nd we had like a strong bounce in Palunteer, a strong bounce in Enbis, a strong bounce in Hood, a strong bounce

in Coreweave. And so on the 23rd I'm

in Coreweave. And so on the 23rd I'm like [ __ ] if these things are all going to bounce, let's go Oracle, right? So I

buy Oracle and the market's new highs, Oracle's acting relatively weak. I'm

done with it. Right? Literally on the 28th, I want to say it was red backtoback days. the 27th, 28th. I cut

backtoback days. the 27th, 28th. I cut

it on the 28th and on the 29th it was back below my average. And so it's one of those scenarios where low of day was my stop. We didn't get enough of a push

my stop. We didn't get enough of a push to justify even moving my stop to flat, still low of day. But because it was showing so much relative weakness versus

the market, I was done with it. And

ultimately that turned out to be the right decision because I mean look at it now. So, great question, but ultimately

now. So, great question, but ultimately it's how are you acting versus the market. If you're telling me Rome is

market. If you're telling me Rome is burning and Oracle's just hanging in there, [ __ ] it, right? Let's just let it work. If you're telling me that the

work. If you're telling me that the market's at a new all-time high and my stock is red, you're gone, right? Uh

what do they say? Cut the weeds, water the flowers, right? Trim the weeds, water the flowers. that Oracle is one of those where you cut it, right? It's

gone. Um, but a name like Arc, she gets a little bit more leeway because I've been in it for five months. You get a break and a close below the 50 before I

I, you know, take some drastic measures and file for divorce. So, [laughter]

>> and I have a question and when it comes to like that TSM short that you just talked about, um, obviously this like isn't a trade you're like, man, I could make a killing on this. Um, Obviously a small cash flow trade, but how much of a

trade like this is for you to just kind of keep a good feel for like the tape, you know, like, okay, if this if this doesn't work, okay, shorts are getting less traction, you know, maybe start to pivot my focus a little bit. How much of

it is that? That's it's it's it's almost 100% that of course it's not going to make some some you know life-changing money. But if this continues to act weak

money. But if this continues to act weak and I'm watching AMD and I'm watching KAC and I'm watching, you know, NASML, uh, and I'm watching an AVGO, I I can't

own them all. But ultimately, this one's going to kind of let me know if the coast is clear to say, hey, this thing's failing, and I don't even have to look at ABGO if TSM is failing. I know what's

going on because it's effectively the same pool of capital flows that hold these things up or that make these things pull back. So that's actually exactly what it is because I want to

align myself in the side of the market that's giving me the least amount of headache and working best. Right? If TSM

is going to work as a short, I know I could probably sneak into ARM. I know I could probably sneak into AVGO. I know I could probably sneak into CRDO. I know I

could, you know, in the ideal scenario, we do all of this after Nvidia earnings and Nvidia is kind of confirming some of that group weakness that you're also maybe seeing within some of these other

names.

>> Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. And the important thing, too, is you're not you're not taking these shorts either as TSM's like gapping down and breaking a range on a Friday, right? You're getting them on,

Friday, right? You're getting them on, you know, rallies up into declining moving averages where your stop is almost like nothing.

>> Literally nothing. So I have effectively a 284 uh average on TSM and my stop is8%

to high a day on a 5% position. Right?

So again a 10% position would mean less than onetenth of 1% risk on my account.

I have less than onetenth of 1% risk on my account but I have 5% of my money there >> and I'm making some money right now. I

would rather be making something while also gaining and more importantly than the money is the feedback from the market because I'm involved and I'm just staring at my you know I'm not just

staring at it but the P&L in my portfolio is telling me what to do right it's the same way like when worked it was okay money's coming out of

speculation let me go try another one oh [ __ ] that worked let me go try another one okay that's working let me go look for another Right? Because that's the side that my my arm's not being twisted.

It's like I'm doing it and I'm feeling like a genius. Right. I'm not feeling like a genius cuz I am a genius. I'm

feeling like a genius because my actions are aligned with what is actually paying in the market. Not my opinions. Well

said.

>> Yeah. It's they're not my opinions. It's

just what the market is it's handing me money and and I'm over here like I just keep turning around. You got more for me? You got more. Until of course the

me? You got more. Until of course the market I try it and it doesn't work. I

get stopped out. I try it. It doesn't

work. I get stopped out. That is also valuable feedback. Um, so that's really

valuable feedback. Um, so that's really really important.

>> So just impressive exposure is just listening to your equity curve and letting that guide you really.

>> Yep. Yep. Yeah. That's one of the best ways. I think that was like the best

ways. I think that was like the best lesson I ever took from Mark Mervini because you know I talk about this a lot. There there's two kinds of um

lot. There there's two kinds of um equity curves, right? Here's with your realized gains and including your unrealized gains. with just looking at

unrealized gains. with just looking at my realized gains. I haven't had a 10% equity curve draw down in over two years,

right? It was even when I had a 12 stock

right? It was even when I had a 12 stock 12 trade losing streak, I lost 1.5% of my equity, right? I didn't get more aggressive behind losers. I got less

aggressive. When Regetti paid me, it was

aggressive. When Regetti paid me, it was a 5% position, but it moved enough to cover 12 losers. When I took UAMY, it was a 6% portfolio position and that one

made enough to cover all my losers. When

I took Nugget, I shorted it three separate times, all as I was already correct and making money, right? I

didn't short as I shorted more as I was wrong. I shorted more as I was right.

wrong. I shorted more as I was right.

And it ended up being like an 8% position. So again, nothing super

position. So again, nothing super aggressive, but yes, using progressive exposure on the side of the market that is treating you best, not what my opinions are. It's this is what the

opinions are. It's this is what the market is doing based on my portfolio going up, and I want to keep going to the side of the market that's treating my portfolio best. Um, and and I don't

argue with it, but again, there are nuances to being a long trader versus being a short trader. Diminishing

returns on the short side, you got to cover things off a little bit quicker.

Um and then obvious question relating to that. Um now I I think there might be a

that. Um now I I think there might be a lot of like maybe you know say beginners in here who hear this and you know want to go out try you know tackling shorts on you know every down move and stuff but how much experience you know and

cycles would you say it takes to to really be able to you know positionally manage longs and shorts you know consistently like that like you do? I

think I would say like go through three nice bullish trends that last more than four months will give you because you'll start to notice and and one of the

things too like there are a lot of times when even I will like take a mental short I don't actually short I like say hey this looks like a good short like

Netflix for instance I thought on Thursday you know Netflix rallying back up into the 50-day I was like you know this looks pretty sweet here against a

rejection of what was 10:22 and really even prior day high that I almost put a short on on Thursday, but I was traveling. I was in Florida with with

traveling. I was in Florida with with Alec. Um, but ultimately I I told myself

Alec. Um, but ultimately I I told myself this looks like a good short. Well, you

look at it, it then ends up working for you. That's the market. Even though you

you. That's the market. Even though you didn't make any money, that's kind of the market confirming to you that what you're seeing is the right thing that you would have done the right thing.

Now, next time just execute on it.

Execute on it with proper size. Execute

on it with the proper um risk and and at the proper level where it ends up being a very low risk. If I'm wrong, right, my entry is something like 116, my stop is

like 117. I mean, what are we talking

like 117. I mean, what are we talking about here, right? peanuts, but you end up getting effectively a six to one on your money by today, right? Um, and

that's just kind of my thinking and it takes a couple cycles and there are times when I'm running longs and shorts.

Like right now, I'm technically long NEM on the gold side. Um, even though it's not really doing too much at the moment, but I'm long NEM from um I want to say this was on Friday that I bought this

thing. um as it was reclaiming the

thing. um as it was reclaiming the 50-day effectively um and and really at the time GLD was starting to push out. So yeah, I'm it takes a couple of cycles, but then it

can just be done because your brain should differentiate like this is my entry tactic. This is where money is

entry tactic. This is where money is going. This is where money is leaving.

going. This is where money is leaving.

Am I being rewarded for being long biotechs? Am I am I being rewarded for

biotechs? Am I am I being rewarded for being short speculative stuff? If the

answer is yes, then you're just seeing things the right way. Um, and remember that money rotates from one place to the next. So that's kind of and it does it

next. So that's kind of and it does it takes a couple cycles but yeah nothing.

>> Yeah.

>> From someone in the chat um a question on covering shorts.

>> Um so it said it sounds like he covers into weakness obviously when the market gaps down and potentially is putting in a tradable bottom. Are there situations where he would hold through those days for a bigger move or better in his opinion to have the shorts be somewhat

shorter in duration to avoid the draw downs as they bounce against you?

There are some like UA ends up being a scenario where I ended up covering um far too soon and I should have held through the better part of this

consolidation.

That that's the honest opinion, right?

When I saw this thing gap down the next day and then tighten up again, I was like I I don't really see how I can short this again with like without it breaking the range. And then of course the next day it breaks the range. Um,

but I but I treat it in a similar fashion to the longs, right? So, I'm

looking for a momentum burst away from my average that allows me to just derisk the trade where I know I've only have a 40% win rate. So, at the at the very

least, I want to get myself into a flat position as quickly as possible. So,

cover some into the weakness and then just continue to trail. Um, again, it's tough to do, but as again, you have to think about that diminishing return. 30

to 50%. Is about the most you're ever going to get on the short side. Yes,

could you get more? Could you get 60, 70, 80, but then you're just kind of holding through a ton and you're going through some moments of heartburn where, you know, maybe that money could be

better allocated in like a fresh long versus like just sitting in a stock that's like now slowly dying. Um but

>> yeah, it's kind of my thinking. Three to

five days cover some like even UAMY. It

was on day two, you know, when I got such a big move down. Um and this one's good to review if you guys go back on my exit and um look through look for this

trade, you know, you get this pretty big almost 30% down move. Um and I'm getting covers off at 13 and then the next day I'm getting covers off at 12. So, I'm

not trying to overstay my welcome 30% move in two days. Like, that's even hard to do on the long side. So,

>> yeah, >> you know, don't be greedy. Take some of your money off the table and then just comfortably let it work for you. Um, and

it's the same thing with Oaklo. Like,

I've gotten myself down to, you know, effectively like the token shares and it really doesn't matter what it's doing below the declining 20-day. No matter

what happens, I'm going to make 25 points a share on the last of my shares.

Of course, do I want to see this thing bounce up $25? No. But do I think that this thing can go back down to 80, you know, and maybe the 200 simple moving average at some point? Yeah, I do. So,

I'm going to just sit there with the last of my token shares so long as we're below a declining 20-day. Uh, and I'm done. And if we get a push into that

done. And if we get a push into that declining 20-day, we start to stay heavy, right? right around the area

heavy, right? right around the area where I know I would be done with the trade is also the same area where I know I might want to add more.

>> Um, which is kind of counterintuitive for some people because I know now my risk is super super small on my ads because I'm using this 20-day as my risk

level um on the remainder of my shares and potentially on a new position.

Yeah, it's a great question. something

like ARC, something like ARC that you're right riding from that that breakout down there is um uh how how proactively then are you trimming something like that you know that's got a longer term

base just kind of starting coming out of a correction a little bit later a little bit after the correction but um you know well within the range to where you know

this can be a multimonth mover which it was um how you how you trimming this uh over the first you know few months >> well actually I will tell you exactly

how I played ARC right now. Um, okay.

So, ARC I bought on the 6th and I bought it out of this breakout. I took my first trims on the 12th or excuse me on the

yeah on the on the third day on the 10th and then another little piece on this uh small push down right on the 12th. So,

at this point I am out about 40% of my shares into this push. And again, of course, we all know what the push looked like. It's all hindsight, but I've now

like. It's all hindsight, but I've now settled into 60% of my position and I don't touch any more shares until I put

ads on into this trying to come out of this little low cheat setup. So, after

we base like even on this gap down, I did nothing with it because once it pushed once it pushed far enough away from my average, I was then using the 50-day and even this little gap down

didn't bug me. Even this next move down when it broke the 50-day but built a higher low didn't bug me. Same deal on 92 didn't bother me. And once we started

to trade very very tight right in here obviously closed right where it opened.

Um I ended up adding some right here. Um

and unfortunately I took those shares off on FOMC day when it looked like you know maybe all hell was breaking loose.

Um, [laughter] and like like you guys, I'm partially human. I added some right here. I was like, and I even sat through

here. I was like, and I even sat through this, but it didn't take out prior day low. So, I just kind of sat through this

low. So, I just kind of sat through this and as we started to fade, I was like, you know what? I'm just going to go back to holding my 59s. You know, I made a little bit of coin here. Let me take it off. And ultimately, um, this did end up

off. And ultimately, um, this did end up going, you know, higher. Um, but I just >> the exact the literally the exact same around that FOM FOMC is I'm like, yeah,

okay. Like, this is doing that. Yeah,

okay. Like, this is doing that. Yeah,

>> I really want this. And then, you know, as the market's kind of p like getting really nasty and we just break previous days low, I'm like, "All right, I'm out of here." It may it ticked low by like

of here." It may it ticked low by like 10 cents or five.

>> I did the exact same thing. We took So, my cells were on that 9178.880.

So, you know, lit literally 78.88, which was the low was 78.87.

Okay. So, I sold my ads um from 7674 on 99. I sold them at 78.88,

on 99. I sold them at 78.88, literally 1 cent above that day's low.

So, [laughter] that's incredible. Hey, I

have a quick question. Um on that ARC trade that you took back in June, this will be like the last one. We could wrap it up, but um so how come so I guess let me try to think how do I want to say

this? So obviously ARC was like a really

this? So obviously ARC was like a really obvious pattern, right? Um how come you buy ARC versus maybe looking to maybe get more size or or into something like you know Hood or Roblox at the time? Is

is it more that the chart pattern ARC gave at the time? Uh whereas obviously Hood can make you know twice the move ARC will make in you know the same time period. Why go with like the ETF? You

period. Why go with like the ETF? You

don't want to be a stock picker and maybe pick the wrong you know we're coming out of a correction you know ARC will go with the market so it's a safer kind of trade. Is that you know? Yes.

Um, actually it was it was kind of a bit of both. I knew that owning Arc when I

of both. I knew that owning Arc when I looked at her top 10 holdings, >> I knew she had some really great names in there, but I didn't know for sure

>> which one would pan out the best. And

let me tell you, man, I already had a little bit of a heartbreak in Hood. So,

I bought Hood in after hours on the day it gapped up for earnings. So, I bought Hood on this thing gaps up for earnings

on 430. I buy it at 50 bucks in after

on 430. I buy it at 50 bucks in after hours and I'm using prior days low as my stop. So, 46 bucks. I get stopped out

stop. So, 46 bucks. I get stopped out the very next day in after hours that I sell the bottom in after hours. Um, and

I didn't have a big position. It's just

20,000 shares. I mean, I got, you know, relative relative. Um, and of course,

relative relative. Um, and of course, look at the move. So, by the time we got to when Arc Hat gave me a nice setup, I

was looking at Hood and I don't really like like this is not a flat consolidation. It's just kind of

consolidation. It's just kind of channeling and grinding higher. So, from

just a technical perspective, when I go to get involved into something, I want to make sure it's got clean enough technicals that I can limit risk. Hood

was just kind of channeling higher. Um,

so just, you know, if I were to say, "When did you buy ARC? It was on 66."

Like, if I show up and buy ARC on 66, I'm effectively needing to buy a pullback to the 10day versus just buying a beautiful flatbed breakout in ARC on

that same day. So, from just from like a technical perspective, you know, ARC allows me to get more aggressive, but I don't want to have to assume ARC's got to do well. Why couldn't it have been

coin? Why couldn't it have been Tesla?

coin? Why couldn't it have been Tesla?

Why couldn't it have been, you know, BMR or whatever, TEM, [clears throat] uh, Crisper, Roku, right? So, she's got all these names and in her top 10. My

thinking is just I don't have to be in the exact one. And I own Palunteer, right? I didn't have to be in the exact

right? I didn't have to be in the exact one that is going to be the leader for her. I just know that as a bundle, these

her. I just know that as a bundle, these things for the most part are acting pretty well. like you said, a Roblox, a

pretty well. like you said, a Roblox, a hood, a Crisper, a TEM, a Tesla coin, you know, what ended up being a BMR. Horrible decision. Um, so Kathy's back

Horrible decision. Um, so Kathy's back to her old ways. So, um, unfortunately, but at the time, really nice holdings.

Um, really clean technical setup and and I'll tell you what, I was actually off.

I was early on ARC. I bought it the day before and I ended up taking my stop at low of day. But what I loved the next day was if you looked at the morning

volume, it was dwarfing what it was doing the day before. And you guys have seen this before.

>> How many times have you seen a shakeout before the real breakout?

>> I mean, it it's like it's classic because you get a shakeout, nasty move, arc, it's a posos, people short it, long sell it, and then the next day it's breaking out. Oh my god, I got to cover

breaking out. Oh my god, I got to cover my short. Holy cow, I can't believe I

my short. Holy cow, I can't believe I just sold my long yesterday. I got to reby it. Similar to my story, except I

reby it. Similar to my story, except I bought this breakover. And part of what I liked was I mean, look at how tight this day is.

>> Oh, yeah.

>> 64 from technicals. You're just like, dude, that thing is just over 59 bucks.

I'm in there. Well, the next day it got me in and then immediately at the lows of the day it got me out. Um I actually

took ARC on let's see so I bought it on the 5th at 58 5858 and I stopped at 5708. So again very negligible tiny

5708. So again very negligible tiny little loss and then the next day you come in you buy at 5904 right 50 cents higher but it ends up being the one that

you can sit in for 5 months with next to no stress. So, um, and without needing

no stress. So, um, and without needing to be in, and here's the thing, if you buy ARC, it's working, but then you get a nice setup in Palunteer. Hood gives me

another nice one. Tesla gave me one. I'm

buying those, too, right? Like, it's not like we didn't all spot that 360 breakout for Tesla there. I mean, I don't think, and I know you guys are on top of stuff like that, you know,

there's no chance you guys are missing this 360 breakout in Tesla.

So, but how much longer did it take Tesla to set up while you're already sitting in arc? See what I'm saying?

arc? See what I'm saying?

>> One thing I love about doing these and like reviewing some of these trades is that then you take a step back to like today, right? And then you look at the

today, right? And then you look at the stuff that is being presented on our screens and our scans like right now and you're like, "Wait a minute.

This is not what I'm seeing from the from the opportunities that are potentially present right now. So

just wait until these present themselves so we can talk about them four months from now, five months from now like we are right now. these opportunities from

May June July whatever.

>> And it's how we get better, dude. If we

don't like look at, you know, like I missed Hood. I go back all the time and

missed Hood. I go back all the time and like, you know, it hurts my heart to not be in it on the long side and say, "What could I have done again to get back in?

What did I do?" I didn't reby when it broke out. Had the very subtle gap up.

broke out. Had the very subtle gap up.

Took out the earnings high 5130. That

was the level. I I even like gave that as a long idea and I just missed it, right? So, like, what can I do better? I

right? So, like, what can I do better? I

was short MSTR. I got stopped out. I

didn't reshort it on October 7th. Like,

what can I do to get better? Like, I

review all of the biggest winners and all of the biggest losers to see like what was it that I was missing? Like,

why didn't I execute it? Did it just not set up cleanly? Is that just not a setup in my playbook? Do I not trade higher lows? You do. Do I not trade flatbased

lows? You do. Do I not trade flatbased breakouts? You do. Do you not trade

breakouts? You do. Do you not trade earnings gap ups? You do. Do you not trade high volume closes? It's like, so what is the setup that it gave where I could have gotten on and was it already

acting like a leader at the time, you know, for you to be able to get on board? And I do it with everything,

board? And I do it with everything, dude, because it's the way that you catch the next one. And I don't ever look at Hood and just be like, "Oh man, I missed it. My career is over." No,

like I kept going and look for the next stocks that set up to my liking so that I don't miss them. Um, and you guys are young just like me. Like, dude, this is going to be we're gonna be having this

conversation. The year is going to be

conversation. The year is going to be 204 and you know, we're 65 years old or I'll be 64. Uh, you know, and we're going to be having this conversation, still reviewing things that we missed

because there's always ways to get better.

>> I dude, you had I think on your pre-market stream, I mean, this must have been months ago, but someone had asked uh I think someone because I tune in your >> in the audience in the audience.

>> I already know. I already know. How do

you feel about not being super long?

[laughter] >> How do you feel about not being super long right now? And I was like, "Yeah, because my career is over tomorrow or something like that."

>> Yeah, exactly. I think someone asked, uh, uhh, are you bummed you missed BMR?

And you were like, you were like, why would I have FOMO when I have like a, you know, 30 40 year career to worry about ahead of me, you know?

>> Yeah. It doesn't matter, dude. Like, I

miss charts all the time. Like if I were to go if I'm going to sit here and be depressed about all of my missed trades, dude, I I I'll just hand me the rope right now, right? [clears throat] You

know, like, but I've also had an incredible year. And so on the flip side

incredible year. And so on the flip side of that, I got to be happy about the like, sure, am I going to be like, "Oh my god, I I could be up double what I am this year, right? Or I could just be

like, what did you do wrong? What could

you have done better? Did you oversize your trades? Were you not patient

your trades? Were you not patient enough? What was your entry tactic? What

enough? What was your entry tactic? What

day did you get long? What were you seeing in the market? And one of the way the best ways to do that is to track your trades. I don't care if it's by pen

your trades. I don't care if it's by pen and paper. I don't care if you use trade

and paper. I don't care if you use trade zella. I don't care if you use

zella. I don't care if you use traderview. I don't care if you, you

traderview. I don't care if you, you know, got it. Whatever you have to do, track your trades. when you bought it, when you trimmed it, when you sold it, what group it's in, the day you bought

it, how many shares, how was the market acting at the time that you bought it, how was the underlying group acting at the time you bought it, peers in the group that were also working well. And

then all of a sudden, you've got like something there that you can go back and review and a handful of charts you can look at to help you build the conviction of, oh, it wasn't just JP Morgan going

up on its own. JP Morgan was going up with Goldman Sachs and Interactive Brokers and you know um Wells Fargo and Croup and and these all looked identical

and this is when you bought it Ariel.

This is when you stopped out. What'd you

do wrong? You you know you just had your stop too tight. You didn't give it enough wiggle room. You you weren't listening to the peers in the group which were still acting well and you just had your stop too tight and then

you missed a 60point move in JP Morgan, right? And how can you do better? Um,

right? And how can you do better? Um,

and that's like always my thinking.

That's how you improve. Um, but you have to tr anything that's not tracked, you can't improve upon it. So, you have to track your trades. It's going to be the easiest way for you to go back in, dive

in, and be like, I could do this better.

I could do that better, you know, and and go from there.

>> Yeah. So, someone had asked if you had uh if you took that coin breakout shortly after arc or not in June.

>> No, I missed it. Another another miss out. And by the way, I had an alert set

out. And by the way, I had an alert set and I was staring right at it. So, my

alert was set.

>> Really similar to ARC, too. Same flat.

>> You're talking about this one.

>> Yeah, you're talking about this one.

>> Yeah, I I missed it. Um, and I was staring right at it. So, it was like 265 or something where my alert went off because before like this little upper bound, I was like looking at it through

a prior day high and I was kind of just looking at it like right through here.

>> So, same thing.

>> You had an alert from before that went off and >> Yeah.

>> dude. So, this thing was nuts because I I'd been kind of like screaming about this prior because this was right after Circle IPOed and um Circle makes USDC

the whatever stable coin and all of Coin's transactions are facilitated in USDC. So, Circle has an agreement with

USDC. So, Circle has an agreement with Coin where 50% of USDC uh or 50% of their revenue that Circle generates goes >> goes to Coin

>> for them to use their stable coin, which therefore increases their reserves, which they therefore invest into treasuries and gives them gives them their their money. And I'm

[clears throat] sitting there like, when is the market going to wake up to this or what am I what am I missing with this? Uh or and it or is it just sitting

this? Uh or and it or is it just sitting around waiting and then finally it was just sitting around waiting getting tighter probably being accumulated whatever and then uh and then finally it

takes off as as circle begins to make its um second leg. Actually never didn't make a second leg but as circle begins to kind of stabilize a little bit.

>> Yeah. I mean circle made an absolutely massive move. I thought that this thing

massive move. I thought that this thing was going to go higher, but what it ended up turning into was a total disappointment where it hits those highs 43043.

Um, and that's just disgusting price action. But it's not helpful when you

action. But it's not helpful when you know, Bitcoin itself isn't really um, you know, trying to push higher as well.

Bitcoin's just effectively been going sideways since May. Uh, you know, with a couple little squirts higher. though.

>> Yeah, it's um but yeah, I remember this one like it was night, you know, like like it was yesterday. Um and I just missed it. And why did I miss it? I

missed it. And why did I miss it? I

don't know because I had my alerts set, right? But part of it is is I'm not

right? But part of it is is I'm not going to catch them all even when I'm staring at them, right? Even when

they're on my But I did my job. My job

was to find it. Recognize that it looked good. Recognizing how tight of a prior

good. Recognizing how tight of a prior day that had, recognizing how massive this volume was, recognizing it gapped above the 200, it established itself

above the 200. It got accumulated above the 200. Big pick up in volume here and

the 200. Big pick up in volume here and then it just went sideways and it offered you a very very tight entry at 260 bucks all the way up to like 270 with your stop at low of day. And then

all you would have had to have do was just adjust your position sizing. But

no, I missed it. So,

>> God, where are those setups right now, man? I guess

man? I guess >> that's the thing. There aren't any. And

that for me just is a cue to do nothing.

Which is why I revert to my my my fantasy um where it's just that this market comes down similar to what we had

in um this April wash out where we go and wash out against 2022 highs. Similar

where we wash out to this year's highs.

it ends up being a 12 to 15% pullback after a 60% up move. You know, the year maybe even finishes, you know, flat.

It's just a flat year for the stock market. It was just big volatility in

market. It was just big volatility in both ways. The year finishes somewhat

both ways. The year finishes somewhat flat and then we look for that follow-through day going into next year.

Um, and then hopefully some of these growth stocks are ready for, you know, the next the next leg up from there. Um,

and then, you know, it might take a quarter or two to us to get back to these local highs of October. Um, but

then, you know, eventually the market just naturally trends higher. Um, but or we just go sideways for a few weeks and then we got we start to get some actual

strength back in the semis sector. The

banks start to shapen up just a little bit more and we get a little bit more broadening in participation. problem is

is I like I look at equal weight um ETFs and I just don't see it, man. Like I

look at equal weight and and I could kind of go through some of those. Um you

look at like your RSPC for communication services trashd consumer discretionary kind of disgusting and I'll just kind of pull these up. So RSPC

this doesn't look all that hot below the 50-day. It's not tight and it doesn't

50-day. It's not tight and it doesn't look is it going to bottom soon? Maybe,

but I don't know when. Um, I look at RSPD and the reason that I look at equal weight is because I don't want one stock to have too much influence over the entire sector. I want to know that the

entire sector. I want to know that the entire sector actually looks pretty good. RSPD looks about ready to break

good. RSPD looks about ready to break below the 200. Um,

utilities, which is RSPU, uh, not so bad actually. This is one of those sectors

actually. This is one of those sectors and that's why GEV is still kind of on my radar, right? This thing looks, you know, it looks bouncing off the 50.

We're just kind of hanging tight. We're

either going to start to live below the 50, no good, or we're going to start to turn back up and then that will look a little bit better. Um, and we could just kind of keep going. You know, consumer

staples not so good. real estate, you know, yes, the group has the group has been better, but when you think about um you know, equal weight,

real estate looks terrible, >> right? And and really it's RSPH, which

>> right? And and really it's RSPH, which is like now we start to get to what looks really good, healthcare, right?

Like this is now getting back above the 200. It's choppy as all hell, but it

200. It's choppy as all hell, but it starts to look like your TMO. starts to

look like ISRG. It starts to look like your Lily. Um, and then you've also got

your Lily. Um, and then you've also got RSPG and this is a another one. This is your energy uh equal weight. And you know,

this is just when you zoom out in a just a giant base, right? I mean, this looks a whole lot like Exon Mobile um when you think about it, right? Big move up, big giant side sideways consolidation. And I

go, "Look at Dino, look at PAR, look at XOM, look at MPC, look at VLOO." Like,

okay, these aren't sexy. Nobody really

wants to own them, which makes them even that much more attractive to me. It's

not until like everybody gives in and buys them that they, you know, they end up really going on to work.