Where You Should Be Investing Your Money In 2026 | Chris Camillo

What we found amazing is that the last few times you've been on the podcast, you've been 100% correct. We had you on and you talked about buying into the S&P 500. You predicted the best time to buy

500. You predicted the best time to buy and since then it's been up 35%. You

predicted the best time to buy Robin Hood and since then it's been up over 200%. You predicted it was the best time

200%. You predicted it was the best time to buy energy stocks before they went up. Since then, those are up 1 to 200%.

up. Since then, those are up 1 to 200%.

And you predicted AI and robotics over the last year and have also been correct. It also seems like every time

correct. It also seems like every time we film with you, the market's going down. you give us some insights and then

down. you give us some insights and then we look back six months later and we're like, "Oh my gosh, he was completely correct." It's a lot of pressure for

correct." It's a lot of pressure for you. So, what's going on today?

you. So, what's going on today?

>> Yes. Uh same exact thing, just just different slightly different storyline each time, right? So, we we have this

boom bust uh sentiment cycle around AI, I think, primarily because people just don't really understand AI. like it's

just big huge scary thing and so many people are talking about it being a bubble right and for investors you know the market's gone up quite a bit so it

doesn't take a lot to shake it um remember back uh during deepseek you know deepseek was going to completely

bust up the entire AI economics model right uh AI was over because of deepseek I think we lost it something like a trillion dollars of value because of a

misunderstanding of how models work. Um, deepseek ended up being a reasoning model and shortly after people realized that reasoning

models take like 100 to a,000x the amount of inference to actually use.

So you know even if you are able to come up with an a model cheaper um the amount of compute necessary to actually utilize that model is massively more than

anything we've ever seen you know up to that date. So you know the market just

that date. So you know the market just didn't understand it. And I think I see more of that happening today than ever before in my entire life investing where

investors are just not willing to go deep and and gain conviction like actually do the hard work it takes to get conviction so that when things like this happen, they don't get freaked out.

>> But do you think anything could be different this time? Because the market was at an all-time high and then on the fear and greed index, it hit extreme fear for the first time ever. Yeah, you

have two vastly different scenarios.

Like when we had you on initially and that was the first like tariff scare, I asked what should the average person do and you said get a second job. Do

everything you can to buy risk assets.

You also said this is the dream scenario for every investor. And again, you couldn't have been more correct this time. However, the markets hit an

time. However, the markets hit an all-time high at the same time that the fear and greed index hit extreme fear.

And you have these two convergences that that just we don't see the market doing well at the same time that people are very pessimistic.

>> Yeah. I mean like nobody can predict what the market's going to do over a short period of time and that's not what we're really focused on, right? Like

when I made that comment, it it it was like I feel that people should be doing that for the next few years, you know, not just the next few weeks. So like I said, >> they would have been pretty well off

though if they did it for the next few weeks. You just have to keep doing it.

weeks. You just have to keep doing it.

Like guys, this is the biggest thing that we will likely ever see in our life. Period. End of story, right? Like

life. Period. End of story, right? Like

there's so much doom around this concept of AI and it just drives me absolutely bonkers. Let's just talk about like what

bonkers. Let's just talk about like what people are freaking out about right now.

Like like right now you probably saw the Michael Bur stuff, right? So like right now people are freaking out about the AI infrastructure companies being

overleveraged and overbuilding and not doing proper accounting because the chips they're saying are going to last and be and be valuable for five or 6 years when in reality people like

Michael Bur are saying they're only going to be valuable for 2 or 3 years.

Right? So he's saying once the world realizes that the economic models are going to fall apart. they're

overspending on things that won't generate enough value to generate a return for their cost and that this will be similar to the mortgage crisis, >> right? That and that he's like seating

>> right? That and that he's like seating that in everyone's heads. So, I'll say this, even if he's right, it doesn't matter. So even if this one cycle that

matter. So even if this one cycle that we're in right now is maybe overspending on compute that isn't going to last as long as the companies say it's going to

last in terms of being valuable and generating income. That doesn't matter

generating income. That doesn't matter to me because that's just this one little mini cycle in the AI story.

That's not changing the much more important larger story which is we just we are inventing intelligence and over

the next 20 to 40 years we are going to make all of industry meaningfully more productive meaningfully more efficient and when

that happens everyone wins when that happens all companies become more profitable right I don't want to use the word all right like industry generally becomes more profitable. We're able to

climb out of this kind of cycle of scarcity that we've been living in for so long where more people will be able to get more things that will start to accelerate. And if that happens, you

accelerate. And if that happens, you have to be invested in productive assets. Period. Like end of story. like

assets. Period. Like end of story. like

like if you have conviction in what I just said these bumps along the road whether it's deepseek or whether it's AGI is going to take 15 years as opposed

to 2 years or you know this this current generation of chips won't be as productive as people think they're going to be that stuff really doesn't matter.

>> Okay. So, you say that we're not able to predict the short term and we can predict the long term, but at the same time, you're also posting screenshots of your trading account on Schwab of like

call options and and like stuff that isn't super far out in expiration date.

For those that don't know, a call option is basically you're predicting a price will go above a different price by a certain date. And that is kind of like

certain date. And that is kind of like predicting the short term. So, how do you know when to like try to predict the short term with your call options? or is

that kind of you just see that as a gamble cuz I see you making millions of dollars?

>> Well, they don't always work. The the

this is a cycle that repeats itself over and over again. Like I said, it happened with DeepSeek. It happened with AGI

with DeepSeek. It happened with AGI maybe being further away than we thought it was. Now, it's the compute. It's

it was. Now, it's the compute. It's

always going to be something else. But

the cycles don't last that long. And I'm

making bets that over the course of the next few months, uh, that it will be a rinse and repeat. and these companies will recover because the riskreward of

not being invested in these companies is just it's asymmetric, right? So, could

there be some downside? Yes, absolutely.

But missing out on the upside of the biggest uh technological cycle that we've ever seen in the history of the world, right? it

like like that's an asymmetric risk and I firmly believe that both institutional and retail investors will ultimately decide that they have to be part of that

and and these stocks will recover.

>> So what happened to Michael Bur closing down his fund? Why did he do that?

>> Well, listen, you know, Michael Bur seems to have conviction that we're in a bubble that things have gotten over inflated and and and maybe maybe he's

partially right. you know, maybe he's

partially right. you know, maybe he's partially right. Um, but he's a weird

partially right. Um, but he's a weird guy. First of all, let's just let's just

guy. First of all, let's just let's just like take a step back. Remember, he

obsessed over the mortgage bubble for years and years, and he was really early. I think the difference between

early. I think the difference between his historic call on the mortgage collapse and now is that the mortgage

industry was somewhat what insular like he found a problem that once exposed theoretically there is no way to get out

of it. Whereas with this AI super cycle

of it. Whereas with this AI super cycle that we're in and we're still in the very early innings. I'm not even sure we started the first inning. That's how

early we are. There's so many factors and it's so large um that I think he's he's in over his skis with this one.

Even if he's right about one piece of it, this is very different from from the mortgage sector, right? Like this is the entire world innovating in a way that we've never seen it innovate before.

Part of it reminds me of Isaac Newton, his investing. Did you see this chart?

his investing. Did you see this chart?

was early in on something and sold it for a really big profit and his buddies got in a little higher than him and it went up even more. And he says, "I'm not touching that. That's uh that's too

touching that. That's uh that's too high. It keeps going up and he says,

high. It keeps going up and he says, "No, I'm not I'm not doing that." It

keeps going up even more. He says, "You know what? Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I

know what? Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I should be investing." And then he buys and it goes up even more and he's like, "Oh, wow. Yeah, I'm glad I didn't miss

"Oh, wow. Yeah, I'm glad I didn't miss out." And then the whole thing collapses

out." And then the whole thing collapses and it's just he sells at the bottom.

like he lost his whole fortune doing this.

>> I think the core issue is people overthink things. Um, all right. So,

overthink things. Um, all right. So,

like we're all we all have these phones in front of us. I think I've talked to you guys about this in the past. You

know, one of my biggest investments ever was on Apple early days iPhone. When

this phone came out, there were a million things to kind of talk the phone down, right? To say Apple's getting over

down, right? To say Apple's getting over inflated. when you experienced an iPhone

inflated. when you experienced an iPhone for the first time. When I've held an iPhone one in my hand, I was like, "This is maybe bigger than anything that's ever happened in my life, and this might will likely end up creating the biggest

company we've ever seen." So, it's like, that's all you need to know. Game over.

Like, you don't need to worry about all the little things. Did he do this thing right? Is the connection good? Did he

right? Is the connection good? Did he

get a good deal with AT&T? That stuff is like nothing compared to the overreaching story that this is the most transformative piece of technology that has ever been invented in my lifetime

and would completely restructure the way that we live our lives and and that the chokeold that Apple would have on all of us, right? It it was just it's hard to

us, right? It it was just it's hard to wrap your head around that and the financial opportunity for that company.

So, I think about AI right now and what's happening. It's so much larger

what's happening. It's so much larger than this moment like that. No, nothing

worries me. No blip in the system worries me. No market correction worries

worries me. No market correction worries me. They're all opportunities to me.

me. They're all opportunities to me.

Every single dip, every single market bump is just an opportunity for me. When

I checked my portfolio this morning.

Today is what is today? Thursday.

Today's Thursday. It was a horrible day in the market. You guys can go back and probably see it since we're posting this in a couple of days. and I saw my portfolio down a bunch. I'm like

freaking out a little bit. I'm like,

"Oh, okay. How am I going to make this up? Okay, I got to make sure the podcast

up? Okay, I got to make sure the podcast is good for this Sunday. I got to make the money back." Then you walk in and you were saying, "Oh, yeah, this morning." Like, you know, I bought I

morning." Like, you know, I bought I bought a little bit this morning, too.

And you bought some Bloom Energy. Graham

asks like, "Oh, how much did you buy?"

And you're like, "A million bucks."

>> Casually.

>> And then I'm thinking, "Okay, that's got to be okay. Margin. Is that like No, just million bucks."

>> But it's on margin. Yes. So you pay for it on margin but it's not leveraged Bloom Energy. It's not options.

Bloom Energy. It's not options.

>> I bought options too but yeah I bought a million >> in equity. So let's talk about this morning when you open up your portfolio for the first time. How much were you down today?

>> A few million dollars.

>> And what what was the internal dialogue?

So if you have people watching right now where their portfolio is going up or it's going down, what do you tell yourself when you when you wake up and you see you're down a few million dollars?

>> Why? That's all I care about is the why.

I don't care that the market went down.

I care about why it went down. If

there's new information, if there's something that I didn't know about yesterday that I need to learn about today that is a meaningful risk to my

assets, then I want to know about that and I'll trade on that. And so I immediately try to figure out what's going on. It's it's the Michael Bur

going on. It's it's the Michael Bur stuff, you know, to some extent. And it

was SoftBank yesterday selling all their Nvidia, although they're just selling it cuz they have no cash and they need to make a $22 billion investment in OI before the end of the year. So, that

didn't concern me. There's a few other little things specifically on Bloom Energy. I contacted my Bloom Energy

Energy. I contacted my Bloom Energy analyst who's a one of my best friends and I said, "Hey, I don't see anything on Bloom Energy. Do you? I just want to

make sure I'm not missing anything."

He's like, "No, I don't either." So, I just bought more. Again, if your thesis doesn't change and the market takes a downturn, that's an opportunity, right?

Like, as long as your thesis doesn't change, as long as the underlying information doesn't meaningfully change, it's just an opportunity.

>> But at what point do you get concerned?

Let's just say everything drops by 50%.

For no real reason, it just drops.

Couldn't consumer sentiment be a reason in itself that the market's going down and that becomes self-fulfilling and then more people start selling and more people start selling and more?

>> I mean, it doesn't concern me. It

probably excites me more than anything else if that happens.

>> If if the reason for it happening is what you just laid out, which is sentiment and fear, that excites me. If

the reason is because we found something out that totally disrupts the thesis that I've been working on for 3 and 1/2 years about AI, that's a problem. That's

something I want to know about. So

guys, I've been through this. So I was a kid, but I lived through the 87 crash.

My family was in, you know, the finance sector. I was living in New York at the

sector. I was living in New York at the time. Like I've been through it in in

time. Like I've been through it in in 2000, been through in 2008. I mean, this is to be expected. It's actually so

weird if we don't have days like today.

If we don't have days like today, that's what concerns me. I'm like, wait a second. Is like the information that I

second. Is like the information that I know, does everybody already have they already accepted that? meaning there's

no meaningful degree of uh arbitrage, information arbitrage between me and the rest of the world. Right? I like it when people are coming out with concerns and

fear and you know the polar opposite kind of uh thesis as mine as long as I believe mine is stronger.

>> But that assumes that the market is somewhat logical and the market can be very irrational and very emotional.

Where does that play? How long could the market be trading on emotions for before eventually logic comes in?

>> Logic will always win. Uh in

historically the market uh trades off of emotions for very short periods of times, days, weeks, maybe months. Look

at every market crash. Look at the recoveries on every market crash pretty much during our lifetime. It's very

quick. So is whenever it's a fearbased drop or just confusion, uh the market generally recovers very quickly.

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