Who WILL WIN the 2025 F1 CHAMPIONSHIP?

Good day. Who's going to win the 2025 F1 World Drivers Championship? My money's

on and I'll tell you why in just a moment.

This Sunday, one of these three F1 drivers will be crowned the World Drivers Champion. It's the first time

Drivers Champion. It's the first time since 2010 that more than two drivers go into the last race with a chance to win the title. And in that year, Sebastian

the title. And in that year, Sebastian Vettle was victorious. And like Oscar, he was third in the standings heading into that final race. And that was the same for Kimmy Reichen back in 2007. As

it stands now, Lando Norris on 408, Max Vstappen 396, and Oscar Pastri 392.

There's a 12-point gap between Lando and Max, and a 16-point gap between Lando and Oscar. If Lando finishes first,

and Oscar. If Lando finishes first, second, or third, he wins the championship. In fact, he wins in most

championship. In fact, he wins in most scenarios by virtue of being in front.

But if Max wins and Lando finishes fourth, or worse, Max snares his fifth world title. If Oscar wins in Abu Dhabi,

world title. If Oscar wins in Abu Dhabi, Lando can still beat him if he finishes in the top five. If he finishes sixth or worse, Oscar wins his first title. There

are many permutations, but at its simplest, Max has to score 13 points more than Lando and Oscar 17 points more in order to win without it going to a countback. If there's a two-way tie, and

countback. If there's a two-way tie, and there is no three-way tie possibility, the winner is the driver with the most wins. And at present, all have seven. If

wins. And at present, all have seven. If

all of the drivers are still on seven after Sunday, the winner is the driver with the most second place finishes, and that's Lando with eight compared with five for Max and four for Oscar. But if

Max or Oscar wins this race, there's no way that it can be a tie. Qualifying

will be crucial. And if we go back 5 years, Max has taken out pole position four in a row, 20 to 23. And Lando took pole position last year. And get this, whoever starts on pole typically wins

this race. If you go back for the last

this race. If you go back for the last decade, every single pole sitter has gone on to win this race. Oscar Pestri

back in form last weekend never put a foot wrong over the whole weekend. And

had the team pitted the two McLarens and the other 17 cars pitted, Oscar would have almost certainly won that race and the scenario this weekend would be marketkedly different. But Max 2 is back

marketkedly different. But Max 2 is back in form. He's turned a 104 point deficit

in form. He's turned a 104 point deficit to Oscar into a four-point advantage over him. He's fast, he's hungry, and

over him. He's fast, he's hungry, and this track suits him. In this Saturday night's qualifying, I'm picking Oscar to take out pole from Lando with Max third.

But no matter what, the start will be wild. Max with his elbows out, Lando

wild. Max with his elbows out, Lando being perhaps a little bit more careful, knowing that the championship win is more important than the race win, and a DNF will almost certainly rule him out of contention for the title, unless the

other two also fail to finish. That

first turn will be the most interesting turn one of the entire season. I'll be

shooting headon and I'll be focused on the top three. Now, by lap three, the field will have sorted itself out and it will be heads down for those top three.

Now, assuming there are no safety cars or red flags, expect pit stops to take place anytime from lap 10 onwards. And

no pit stop will be more important than the first one. There's a real chance for one of these three contenders to jump or drop a position or two due to a slow stop. And is there a likelihood of a

stop. And is there a likelihood of a second stop? Well, it's a lower chance.

second stop? Well, it's a lower chance.

Most of the cars will probably end up on a single stop strategy. And if you go back to last race, Oscar's first stop was a second or so slower than Lando's.

Now, a couple of scenarios that could play out. If Max is leading and Oscar's

play out. If Max is leading and Oscar's say running third in front of Lando, would McLaren ask Oscar to let Lando pass? They would have discussed this in

pass? They would have discussed this in meetings without a doubt. So, they'll

know the answer. Now, if Oscar can't win, he might well acquies to the team's request. After all, they are paying him

request. After all, they are paying him tens of millions a year, and it would buy him plenty of favor in the future.

So, I'd guess he'd move over if he can't win the race. But remember, Andreas Stellar, the team principal, said that Oscar was free to fight his teammate Lando Norris for the title. And while

they might be close at the start if Oscars to win the championship, Lando will be five cars behind him. Now, at

this point, let's talk about Lando passing Kimmy Anteneelli in Katar. At

first, it was thought Kimmy pulled over for him. That's what Helmet Marco said

for him. That's what Helmet Marco said postra in an interview, and that fueled an avalanche of hate on Kimy's social media. keyboard warriors spewing

media. keyboard warriors spewing senseless hate from afar. It was so bad that Red Bull had to make an apology. We

sincerely regret that this has led to Kimmy receiving online abuse. An abuse

not dissimilar to what Nicholas Latifi suffered back in 2021 when of course he crashed in that final race of the year bringing out the safety car and resulting in Max Vstappen winning his

first title. Sto Wolf has said that the

first title. Sto Wolf has said that the team has documented more than a thousand such messages and reported it to the sports governing body, the FIA. Now,

they put out a statement earlier this week, which was the right thing to do, but it's probably not going to stop those ill-informed and angry loopers, firing more vitriol in the future. Some

comments I've seen suggest identifying them and putting those people on an F1 blacklist so they couldn't attend F1 events. Good idea in principle, a bit

events. Good idea in principle, a bit like identifying soccer hooligans, but in practice, I don't think that would work. Some of you saying that George

work. Some of you saying that George Russell might assist Lando if it came down to a crunch moment late in the race. Of course, George and Max don't

race. Of course, George and Max don't get on. George is much closer to Lando.

get on. George is much closer to Lando.

He even bowed to him in Park Furme back in Kata. So, it's certainly a

in Kata. So, it's certainly a possibility, but that would no doubt expose George to a similar level of hatred from fans. Would that affect George? H not as much as it did a

George? H not as much as it did a younger driver like Kimmy. So what

happens after the race? Well, if Max wins the race and wins the championship or be on the top step, he'll celebrate up there with the other two place getters. His race win and the

getters. His race win and the championship win. If he doesn't end up

championship win. If he doesn't end up in the top three, and that's what happened last year in Las Vegas. You'll

remember he finished outside the top three, but he still parked in park fur with the other three. He had his own separate World Drivers Championship banner that he parked in front of, but

he didn't go up on the podium. Of

course, for the other two contenders, they won't want to hang around at all.

They'll be keen to get out of there. Of

course, if Lando wins, Oscar's obligated to stay around for the team photo and vice versa. But if a McLaren driver does

vice versa. But if a McLaren driver does win it, Max will be out of there as quick as he can. One thing's for sure, the championship winner will be at the track a long time after the race. If we

go back to last year as an example, Max Vstappen won the title but didn't leave for at least two hours. It took about 85 minutes for him to roll up at the back of the garage to get a picture with his

crew and about a half an hour later he arrived for the team photo out on the energy station deck. Then it was back to the hospitality suite and at some point he ended up leaving the track. What

about defending the championship?

Because that's what Max Vstappen's doing right now. Well, if one of the McLaren

right now. Well, if one of the McLaren drivers wins, they go to 2026, as all the drivers do, in cars that we have no idea about. This might be their only

idea about. This might be their only chance of winning a world drivers championship next year. McLaren could be slow. What about the other 17 drivers?

slow. What about the other 17 drivers?

Could they play a part in this race?

Well, certainly, apart from Yuki Cenod, who has a vested interest perhaps in Max winning, the other 16 drivers have no real interest. I don't think they'll be

real interest. I don't think they'll be wanting to get mixed up in that battle.

I imagine they won't want to be doing what Estabban Okon did back in Brazil when he took Max Vstappen off. Well,

that would be a horrible uh incident if you took out one of those contenders for for no real win on your own part. If we

go back to McLaren, does Zack Brown want Lando to win? Well, he says he wants one of his drivers to win. And in fact, even if neither win and somebody else beats him by a point, he's more than happy for

that rather than pick a driver and focus all of their attention on that one driver. But Zach would certainly be

driver. But Zach would certainly be happier if Lando won. Why? Well, he's

been with the team longer. Zach has a vested interest in Lando. And marketing

wise for the team, Lando is probably a more salailable story. Of course, if Oscar wins, he's not going to be devastated, but I think he would prefer Lando to win. Will the team sabotage Oscar's attempt if it looks like he's

going well? Will they deliberately muck

going well? Will they deliberately muck up his pit stop? No, I don't think so. I

think that would go against um the morals of anyone racing that they would do that. I know a lot of you have said,

do that. I know a lot of you have said, "Oh, yes, the team's knobbling him." But

no, I just don't see it. But certainly

some in the Australian media are of that persuasion. And I see in the Australian

persuasion. And I see in the Australian Parliament this week that Oscar rated a mention. He's very much top of mind in

mention. He's very much top of mind in Australia. But getting back to my

Australia. But getting back to my prediction as the 2025 F1 World Drivers Champion, I pick Lando Norris. And I

pick him because he's in front. Very

hard to jump a front runner. You'd

certainly always want to be leading going into the final race. But it

wouldn't surprise me if Max won the race and even Oscar second. But that wouldn't be enough for either of those two drivers to jump Lando. Last race, we had Lando's brother and his parents at the

race. And it wouldn't surprise me if the

race. And it wouldn't surprise me if the whole family rolled up this weekend.

This year, we've had plenty of twists and turns in the championship. If you go back to the early part of the season, it looked like Oscar was going to romp it in. Of course, he fell in a hole over

in. Of course, he fell in a hole over the last six or seven races. That opened

the door for Lando to take over the lead. And then we have the double

lead. And then we have the double disqualification in Las Vegas and the drama's last race in Kata. But certainly

Formula 1 will be thrilled with the way things have gone down to the wire as will the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Authority because they get the deciding race. Make

no mistake, this race will be huge on television. The ratings through the

television. The ratings through the roof. Everybody who's an F1 fan, even

roof. Everybody who's an F1 fan, even those who are mildly interested, will be tuning in to see which of these three gentlemen wins the 2025 World Drivers Championship. Now, before you head off

Championship. Now, before you head off and grab one of these at the shop at kimlman.com, could those of you unsubscribe, please hit the subscribe button. I'd welcome you on board. Don't

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