Why You MUST Understand This Chart (2026 Predicted)
By Sam Instone
Summary
## Key takeaways - **Pig Farmer's 150-Year Market Chart**: A pig farmer from the 1800s created a chart that predicted the Wall Street crash, the dotcom bubble, and the 2008 financial crisis. Samuel Benner published it in 1875 after analyzing hog, corn, and pig iron prices following his ruin in the 1873 panic. [00:00], [01:08] - **Benner Cycles: 16-18-20 Years Prosperity**: Benner's chart forecasts prosperity in 16, 18, 20-year cycles, commodity lows in 8-10 year cycles, and recessions in 5-6-7 year cycles. George Trit extended it to 2059 with buy/sell zones A, B, and C. [01:24], [01:49] - **Eerily Accurate Past Predictions**: The Benner cycle flagged 1927 as a potential top before the 1929 crash, end of 1999 before dotcom burst, 2007 sell signal before 2008 crash, and end of 2019 caution before 2020 COVID hit. [02:18], [02:38] - **2026 Top, 2032 Low Predicted**: The extended Benner cycle shows a favorable period with rising prices through late 2026, then a potential top, challenging period until early 2030s, with 2032 as a possible major low. [02:55], [03:11] - **Minor Cycles: 2-Up-5-Down Pattern**: Benner's minor cycles repeat as two years positive then five negative, four positive then seven negative, three positive then six negative, signaling short-term highs and lows like pre-1929 and pre-2008. [03:31], [03:47] - **Never Base Strategy on Predictions**: Using any prediction, even the Benner cycle's century of hits, as cornerstone of financial strategy is extremely risky due to survivorship bias, unaccounted shocks, and personal circumstances. Build robust plans with allocation, diversification, and rebalancing instead. [05:54], [06:36]
Topics Covered
- Pig Farmer Predicted Major Crashes
- Benner Cycle Nailed Key Turning Points
- Markets Thrive Until 2026 Peak
- Cycles Driven by Nature and Psychology
- Never Base Strategy on Predictions
Full Transcript
A pig farmer from the 1800s created a chart that predicted the Wall Street crash, the dotcom bubble, and the 2008 financial crisis. And it's saying
financial crisis. And it's saying something fascinating about where exactly markets might head next. Hi, I'm
Simon Stone, chief executive of AS International. And I'm not a fan
International. And I'm not a fan typically of predictions. But when a chart drawn over 150 years ago keeps on calling major market turning points,
it's worth a quick look at. Today, I'm
going to walk you through the Benner cycle. What it is, why it's been
cycle. What it is, why it's been surprisingly accurate, and what it might be signaling for the next few years. But
more importantly, I'll show you why using any prediction at all as a foundation for your financial plan and
decision-m is extremely risky. So, let's
go back to 1873. Samuel Benner was a prosperous pig farmer in Ohio until the panic of 1873 wiped him out completely.
Determined to understand the market patterns, he spent years analyzing the price of hogs, of corn, and of pig iron.
He wanted to uncover the cycles so that others might avoid his fate. In 1875, he published Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. And it included
a hand-drawn chart forecasting the highs and lows using three different patterns.
The first, prosperity. It followed a 16, 18, 20year cycle. The second commodity lows followed an 8 n 10year cycle. And
the third recessions well they followed five six sevenyear cycles. One important
note when Benner marks a year like 1945 or 1999 he means the end of that year and not the beginning. Now, Benner's
original chart just went to 1891, but George Trit later extended it to 2059, adding buy and sell zones marked A, B,
and C. The chart has two different
and C. The chart has two different cycles. A major cycle tracking long-term
cycles. A major cycle tracking long-term prosperity shown as a thick brown line, and a minor cycle identifying shorter
term highs and lows, shown as a thinner gray line. Here's where it gets very
gray line. Here's where it gets very interesting and slightly unnerving. The
Benner cycle has actually been eerily accurate at calling major turning points. If flag 1927 is a potential top,
points. If flag 1927 is a potential top, the 1929 crash fell within that window.
The end of 1999 marked a peak just before the dot bubble burst. 2007 was a Bzone, a sell signal right before the
2008 crash. and the end of 2019
2008 crash. and the end of 2019 suggested caution with COVID hitting months later in early 2020. So with over
a century of mostly accurate calls, what does this chart actually suggest about today? According to the Benner cycle,
today? According to the Benner cycle, we're currently in a favorable period expected to run through to late 2026. It
suggests rising prices and market strength until then. After that, a potential top could form at the end of 2026, followed by a challenging period
until the early 2030s with 2032 as a possible major low. Now, let's zoom in on the minor cycle, those thinner gray
lines in the chart. They're particularly
relevant for short-term moves. Benner
discovered a repeating pattern in market fluctuations.
Two years positive, 5 years negative.
Four years positive, seven years negative, three years positive, six years negative. These minor cycles create
negative. These minor cycles create short-term highs and lows in the broader trends. Examples make it clearer. 1926
trends. Examples make it clearer. 1926
to 1931 minor cycles signals came slightly before the 1929 crash, helping avoid the worst of the Great Depression's first crash. 1996 to 1999
flagged a bullish period then anticipating the peak at the end of 1999. 2007208
1999. 2007208 the end of year 2007 signal could have helped avoid the bulk of the 2008 crash.
Now not every signal is correct but minor cycles give insights into short-term fluctuations that major cycles alone don't capture.
But before we get carried away, let's be rational about exactly why this chart has worked. Well, first, markets are
has worked. Well, first, markets are always inherently cyclical. Agricultural
commodities follow natural patterns.
Solar cycles affect crop yields which influence supply and pricing. And these
patterns ripple through the broader economy.
Second, human behavior moves in predictable cycles of fear and greed,
optimism, and sheer panic. We've watched
these emotions drive market up and down throughout history. Third, and this is
throughout history. Third, and this is very important, the Benner cycle uses flexible time windows. Those 16, 18, 20
year patterns give enough range to capture major moves whilst allowing for slight timing variations.
Some predictions were off by two or three years like the 1985 bottom or the 2012 low, but patterns still held in broader context like real estate or the
golden hour ratio.
Not every prediction Benner made materialized.
So this is very important because it's called survivorship bias. We remember
all of the hits but we forget all of the misses or the near misses.
Using predictions whether it's from a 19th century pig farmer or modern analyst as the cornerstone of any financial life strategy and decision-m
is inherently extremely risky because predictions about the future are just guesses. They can't ever account for
guesses. They can't ever account for geopolitical shocks, technological disruptions, sudden policies, or black swan events. They certainly can't tailor
swan events. They certainly can't tailor advice to your own unique personal circumstances.
The Benner cycle might be able to inform your awareness of broader market cycles, but it shouldn't ever dictate your
decisions. The much smarter approach is
decisions. The much smarter approach is to build a truly robust financial life strategy that doesn't depend at all on perfect market timing or on guessing
anything in the future. For more on the smartest way to approach investing, download our 10 proven principles to help you make the most of market opportunities and reach your future
financial life goals with clarity and confidence. The links below. So, markets
confidence. The links below. So, markets
move in cycles. That's certain. But
betting your future on any chart is simple speculation, not good strategy.
Focus on what you can control, proper asset allocation, great diversification, disciplined rebalancing, systematic
investing, and a financial life plan that is truly resilient to whatever markets do next. The benycle is historically fascinating and quite fun
to look over because it reminds us of patterns and extremes. But despite
overwhelming and the natural human urge to always react, future predictions should never form the basis for making financial decisions or building real
financial resilience.
If you found this useful, watch my video here on how millionaires can profit from market crashes.
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