Worst Since 2007

We got more bad news this morning, but this bad news could just be a speed bump on the road to new all-time highs. We're

going to talk about that bad news and both the ISMs, uh what's going on in the S&P manufacturing numbers, what's going on with not only the Federal Reserve, uh

hint Powell speaks later today. Uh and

then of course what's going on with AI, private credit, the labor market, and updates at least in terms of potentially where to invest uh in this crazy world.

So with that, uh let's get started. It

is Cyber Monday, so remember at meet kevin.com. We've got an expiring coupon

kevin.com. We've got an expiring coupon code tonight at 11:59 p.m. for the alpha report. Uh, and of course the uh,

report. Uh, and of course the uh, Reinvest AI over at househack.com or reinvest.co. So, what did we get this

reinvest.co. So, what did we get this morning? Well, we got some reports that

morning? Well, we got some reports that just weren't that delicious. Bottom line

here is S&P global US manufacturing PMI, I call it not great, not terrible, just like the Chernobyl uh, you know, what is it the Netflix or who I can't even

remember. HBO series, whatever it is,

remember. HBO series, whatever it is, watch it. It's amazing. #notsponsored. I

watch it. It's amazing. #notsponsored. I

just I don't even know what platform it's on, but anyway, record rise in warehouse stocks. This is probably

warehouse stocks. This is probably because we've loaded up on tariffs.

Okay, that's one of the reasons GDP has been booming. Uh we wanted to load up on

been booming. Uh we wanted to load up on inventory before tariffs. It led to a manufacturing recovery, which is great, and it led to employment growth in manufacturing, which that's fantastic.

But the problem is the future signal is weak. Warehouses have filled unsold

weak. Warehouses have filled unsold stock to a green not seen since 2007.

That's bad. And the manufacturing is giving potentially worrying signals that we have a lack of new order inflows

which have quote slowed sharply and suggest that a market weakening of demand growth is coming. So in other words, if new orders fall off a cliff,

it's really bad for GDP contributing manufacturers. Why would new orders fall

manufacturers. Why would new orders fall off a cliff? Because I think we're going through a lull period. So you get the tariff here and then everybody wants to boom boom boom bye bye bye bye bye.

Okay, now you've stocked all your shelves and then you go through a lull period as companies start testing and passing through uh you know price increases uh and then you could kind of

get back to normal manufacturing. So I

don't necessarily think that this dip right here is anything too concerning.

Of course it could boil over if private credit issues get worse or there's some kind of bubble catalyst, but this isn't necess this is like you would expect this after the tariff pull forward we

had. Same thing over here at ISMs. Uh we

had. Same thing over here at ISMs. Uh we we are basically paying for the inventory buildup. The GDP pump was a

inventory buildup. The GDP pump was a bit fake as companies built up stock to get ahead of most pair of pass through.

Those were my notes over here. But same

thing over here, a decline in new orders compared to October. Manufacturing

activity contracted at a faster rate with pullbacks in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment. Uh the

difference between these two reports is that the ISM indicated declining employment and the S&P indicated rising employment. These are surveys of

employment. These are surveys of different companies, but both of them indicated the same decline in new orders. So, yeah, it's a problem, but

orders. So, yeah, it's a problem, but it's probably nothing more than a speed bump. It's sort of like the speed bump

bump. It's sort of like the speed bump that the market kind of had this morning. So, this morning in our alpha

morning. So, this morning in our alpha report, which is, you know, everybody who's part of the Meet Kevin membership gets this all the time. Uh, every day the market's open. We do this pretty much every day. Uh, this morning in the alpha report, you know, we were turning red. We were down like 80 basis points.

red. We were down like 80 basis points.

And I'm like, all right, here's the game plan for today. My expectation is and you can go watch this like this is a recorded video. I play this live with my

recorded video. I play this live with my course members and the archives been there since like 2018 or 17 uh of of my my live streams with course members. And

so what do I go I go hey I think the volatility uh index VIX on the Dow is up 10%. I think it's going to drop

10%. I think it's going to drop throughout the day. As it drops the cues will rise. I wouldn't be surprised if we

will rise. I wouldn't be surprised if we go green. A test is going to be 617, but

go green. A test is going to be 617, but we should be able to break through it just like we did last Friday when we ran to 619. However, wait the first 15

to 619. However, wait the first 15 minutes. The first 15 minutes will

minutes. The first 15 minutes will probably see some algorithmic selling because the volatility index is up, which means you'll get some algo selling. And once that balances out, you

selling. And once that balances out, you should be able to move up. And look,

folks, it's literally what happened.

First 15 minutes, you get your algo sell. Now all of a sudden the volatility

sell. Now all of a sudden the volatility index comes from plus 10% all the way down to only up 2% and the cues are almost green. Easy game. Anyway, if you

almost green. Easy game. Anyway, if you want those insights, make sure you're part of the meek membership at mekevin.com. You get those every day the

mekevin.com. You get those every day the market is open. Now, what do we know about uh well, not only you know these ISMs uh and PMIs not necessarily

mattering so heavily, what do we know about what else is going on? Well, we

know that JPAL was talking today, but don't expect much out of JPAL and talk about this in just a moment. The Zimp

piece that we'll talk about that towards the end. Don't expect much from the

the end. Don't expect much from the Federal Reserve. So, here it is. Jerome

Federal Reserve. So, here it is. Jerome

Powell will be speaking at 8:00 p.m.

Eastern and he's going to give some brief remarks uh and then he'll have a panel discussion. This is very unusual

panel discussion. This is very unusual during a Fed blackout window. The Fed

had time after two weeks ago we got those terrible ADP numbers. Uh the Fed had time to talk up the odds of a rate cut and they did exactly that. Waller

and Mary Dailyaly basically came out and said, "Hey, we're going to get rate cuts, a rate cut in December, but it's probably going to be a hawkish cut. So,

we'll get our 25 cut and unfortunately then we're going to have to deal with hawkish commentary from Powell on the 10th, but and we're also going to get ADP numbers over the next couple days.

So, you know, keep that in mind as well.

That'll be a fun catalyst. But anyway,

we're pretty much certain to get our rate cut for uh December 10th, I don't think we're going to get any commentary at 5:00 today from Jerome Powell. So,

while I will live stream it, I wouldn't hold my breath that anything entertaining is going to happen here other than Kevin pitching his expiring coupon code tonight because there's going to be a massive price increase.

So, you'll certainly get that that I can guarantee you. Comments on uh you know,

guarantee you. Comments on uh you know, economic or monetary policy, I I don't actually think you're going to get. I

mean, Condisa Rice is going to be there.

So, you know, make what you will of that. With that said, there was a spike

that. With that said, there was a spike in the 102 curve today. Uh, this is likely because of the Japanese carry trade concerns given that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike. Watch my

Japanese carry trade video for a more detailed breakdown on exactly this. But

this is likely just a reaction to the Japanese carry trade issue. That's why

we saw volatility pop this morning and that's why we had that 15-minute selloff. It's honestly it's it's a buy

selloff. It's honestly it's it's a buy the dip. Uh, I even wrote that I mean

the dip. Uh, I even wrote that I mean you could see it on my barebull scale this morning. On my bear bull scale this

this morning. On my bear bull scale this morning I put myself at a five and I said the carry trade fears are not economic to us. Short-term vault, yes, usually a buy the dip opportunity.

That's just from our little course member buy the dip chart so we can or um bull bear scale bear bull scale so we can keep track of uh what level we're at over time and see the change over time.

But this is why you're going to see these headlines like US factory activity shrinks by the most in 4 months. Uh what

matters more is obviously the labor market. Uh and I actually really like

market. Uh and I actually really like this economist piece from uh from uh about the labor market. They're not

wrong to say that there are positive things in the labor market. Like yes,

there are also concerning things 27 weeks unemployed and then things that they reference uh such as uh you know unemployment slowly creeping up though it's historically low. Firms are laying

off people but again it's going to take months for that to show up in layoffs and and actual data and by then hopefully we soft land. uh they talk about the sum rule hasn't triggered yet

which is also good which means the pace or the rate at which the rate of change sort of the first derivative the the speed at which jobless claims are going up or the unemployment rate is going up

is actually relatively slow. So this is sustainable and this could actually set up set us up for a good 2026 where maybe we just have a year of calm and clarity they say. So the economist was actually

they say. So the economist was actually pretty positive on the labor market which is great. Obviously you know people are really worried about artificial intelligence Nvidia and the

circular nature of everything. Nvidia

threw $2 billion into synopsis synopsis synopsis whatever this morning. Um we

did a fundamental analysis this morning on the company. I I don't know. I I

wouldn't call it like mega impressive.

You've got some PP issues over there.

Pricing power issues at Synopsis.

Honestly, what you know, somebody donated $20 on my live stream and uh asked me to look at UIP Path. Dude, that

Oh, what we saw there was fire. Thank

you for the $20 donation. Oh, that's

probably 20 bucks. This guy's gotten a lot of shout outs, but it was good. I

really like that. Uh but anyway, uh you know, and then of course at the same time you have OpenAI taking a stake in Thrive Holdings, which is interesting because Thrive Holdings originally

invested like $500 billion into OpenAI.

So now it's like it's like now like I give you give me $20, I'll give you $20.

Like what the hell is going on here? So

it's it's gotten so confusing and convoluted and Thrive Holdings is like operated by or Thrive Capital. Can't

even keep them all straight. Is run by Josh Kushner who's the four-year younger brother of Jared Kushner. And it's like this is probably all just a in an effort to get into the good graces of people

close to Trump. I don't know. It's

really confusing and very circular, but that doesn't stop Morgan Stanley from really shilling the idea that humanoid robots are going to take over and you should invest in humanoid robots. Uh

they have what I think is a little bit of a confusing and misleading chart, but they're really bullish on the whole humanoid story. Uh and what they

humanoid story. Uh and what they recommend is that you invest in the whole supply chain stack of chips basically. So in the United States,

basically. So in the United States, Nvidia, AMD, Amarella, On Semi, NXP, Texas Instruments, Microchip, uh Sony

for Japan, Samsung, South Korea, BYD, China, and many others. You could just look here. Here's sort of the stack. But

look here. Here's sort of the stack. But

they are like jumping up and down about this whole humanoid uh you know push that they're calling it a humanoid species coming to farm work into factory work and all the stuff we don't really

want to do right and they're probably not wrong as long as humanoids can solve their sensor issues the you know hand issues that Elon Musk complains about and then also let me pull it up here

what I wrote down uh the actuator and joint issues. So, I wrote major issues

joint issues. So, I wrote major issues here. The reducers, the motors, the

here. The reducers, the motors, the sensors, uh issues in power management, right? The batteries aren't strong

right? The batteries aren't strong enough yet, the hands. Like, there's a lot to be done here. And so, they're arguing invest in the whole supply chain stack. Basically, that's kind of an

stack. Basically, that's kind of an interesting piece from Morgan Stanley.

You also have a note from Morgan Stanley and Mike Wilson suggesting that mentions of raise guidance spiked while mentions of cautious fell and they're forecasting

a 17% EPS growth in 2026 as the average company could see its first meaningful earnings growth for the first time in four years. I mean it wouldn't really

four years. I mean it wouldn't really like I I wouldn't put it past our stock market to see this mostly because I mean I just try to put myself in the shoes of a sort of a reporting company out there.

Uh, and I look at like our house hack AI and our house hack AI is is ROI positive uh already. I mean like shout out to all

uh already. I mean like shout out to all those of you who've been joining it over at househack.com or reinvest.co. Same

thing. But I mean y'all are signing up for the MK membership or the reinvest AI. Reinvest AI is probably selling like

AI. Reinvest AI is probably selling like 7 to one right now. Uh, and it's amazing because it shows like people want to invest in AI technology. So, you know,

the boom is is going. Uh, so I mean yeah, are there problems? Sure. Like

Amazon's going to do their uh Amazon reinvent conference in Vegas this week.

They're going to pitch all their stuff.

Of course, the information is kind of dumping on them, saying like their product hasn't actually been the best.

Uh, and then of course the Census Bureau says there's been sort of a lag in adoption for artificial intelligence, but that's still leading to, you know, which I thought was a decent article

with the exception of them not listing the the entire list of names, but the Financial Times had an op-ed that they published here where they talk about how certain quality names have gotten pretty cheap. Uh, I actually think Meta has

cheap. Uh, I actually think Meta has gotten exceptionally cheap. Uh, it's

trading for like a 1.2 peg. Everybody in

the comments here was pretty pissed that they didn't actually include the list, but somebody looked up the uh iShares quality ETF and you could look at the holdings for that wherever it was. Uh

and uh it is I think it's I can't find it but anyway it was it's basically names like Meta and Google and Nvidia just the high quality names in America and how there's an opportunity that's coming to those because their price to

earnings ratios aren't actually that expensive. I mean, frankly, at a fair

expensive. I mean, frankly, at a fair valuation, you could easily justify Nvidia with these growth rates at $300.

Now, I'm not saying it's going to go to $300 in the near term. I'm just saying you could easily justify way higher price. You could easily justify over

price. You could easily justify over $1,000 for Meta Shares. Easy. You could

easily justify, 1370ish bucks, uh, I guess that'd be 137 now, uh, for Netflix. Pretty easy to justify.

Uh so like there's definitely some upside but you know on the flip side you can't for Tesla like Tesla or Poundier these these have run a little too much but we already know that. So uh somewhat interesting and then of course at the

same time you've got Michael Sailor who has to do everything he can to sort of prop up his Ponzi. I mean I hate to say it but that's that's all this whole like stretch thing is. See, now in order to

fund Stretch and some of these other preferreds, which are really dangerous, by the way, like they could stop paying dividends on these, and I expect that they'll collapse. I really need to make

they'll collapse. I really need to make a whole independent video on those cuz if you go through the disclosures on Stretch, for example, it's got screaming red flags all over it. We already went through it in the Meet Kevin membership,

but I'll eventually make a public video on it. But anyway, um yeah, so now

on it. But anyway, um yeah, so now they're announcing a USD reserve. It's

basically a way saying, "Hey, we're going to leave 1.4 4 billion in the bank to pay dividends. This really shouldn't be called a USD reserve. It should

really be called a dividend fund uh for debt obligations because they they have committed to make these distributions to these different funds. Uh and they need

the cash to be able to do that.

Unfortunately, that means they have to issue more uh Micro Strategy stock. And

so, of course, Micro Strategy is tanking to try to prop up uh these funds that are trying to extract capital out of,

you know, innocent retail investors. So,

it's going to be really interesting. Uh

I maintain that I'm not bearish Bitcoin.

I am bearish Ponzi. uh and I maintain that Micro Strategy uh and and all these feeder funds uh imploding will mark the bottom of Bitcoin pricing for a

generation. So there will be a

generation. So there will be a generational buying opportunity when this finally implodes. Michael Sailor is under the impression that he can essentially dilute this stock to zero and that he'll always be able to issue

new stock. The part that he forgets is

new stock. The part that he forgets is as the share price comes down, every time he issues a new share, he gets fewer and fewer US dollars and he needs

those to pay out US dollar denominated dividends. Uh otherwise, he's not

dividends. Uh otherwise, he's not fulfilling the promise of like his stretch fund. And if Stretch collapses,

stretch fund. And if Stretch collapses, it's going to be a big black eye to him and Micro Strategy and the liabilities that come out of this are going to be massive. But, you

know, nobody wants to talk about that right now. So yeah, I'm pretty bearish

right now. So yeah, I'm pretty bearish on those. But anyway, uh that uh that,

on those. But anyway, uh that uh that, you know, really kind of covers things today. Again, expiring coupon code at

today. Again, expiring coupon code at meet.com and uh houseack.com or reinvest.com. Uh a trick that people are

reinvest.com. Uh a trick that people are doing is they're buying the Meet Kevin membership and then they're looking at the last alpha report which has a coupon code where you can bundle up. Uh but

anyway, this was also very interesting.

We looked at how Ozimpic is changing the way we spend money. And some of the things are obvious like smaller clothes, so good for clothing clothing brands, bad for food. Uh 10% fewer expenses

expected at groceries from GLP1 users.

But there are some really interesting side effects as well. Apparently, they

think fertility rates are going up with pregnancy test kit usage up 148% within the course of a year of using GLPS. That

was interesting. I mean, maybe because people look better. supplements uh going up 10% declines in groceries, quick service restaurants, and tobacco, but a

14% increase in vegetables uh or or and fresh fruit and 38% in vegetables. That was surprising that you

vegetables. That was surprising that you know the health foods are actually going up uh for fruits and vegetables and sales of chips, baked goods, and

packaged cookies fell 6.7 to 11%. for

people on the medication. So, snack

foods down, alcohol down because of GLPs down 14.5%.

And then of course maybe also an opportunity for gyms because there's muscle mass loss associated with uh GLPS. So, wearable electronics, wearable

GLPS. So, wearable electronics, wearable oral rings, you know, whatever. Uh Apple

watches and uh and then of course travel because maybe people feel better about themselves or whatever. I mean, these are sort of the logical outcomes here.

So, uh, that's sort of like a broad roundup of of all of the entertainment today. I don't think we've really missed

today. I don't think we've really missed anything. Oh, the one thing that we

anything. Oh, the one thing that we missed that was crazy was you might remember, and this is well, we'll call this the humble meat cabin part, okay?

You might remember a few weeks ago when Google announced the TPU partnership or not partnership uh well it was actually technically a buying partnership for you know others to buy TPUs uh like Meta to

buy Google TPUs.

I said that I think the impact to Google's bottom line will be 3%. Well,

it turns out that Morgan Stanley now has a piece out that the upside would be 3% to 2027 earnings per share. and I'm

like, "Oh my gosh, that's exactly what we said." So, I thought that was kind of

we said." So, I thought that was kind of cool. So, I'm definitely patting myself

cool. So, I'm definitely patting myself on the back for that one because my analysis was done same day and we're just now hearing this from Morgan Stanley and they came up with the same

conclusion. It just makes me feel a

conclusion. It just makes me feel a little better. But then again, you know

little better. But then again, you know what? We do fundamental analysis every

what? We do fundamental analysis every freaking day. Like, I better not be that

freaking day. Like, I better not be that far off, you know? Like, what's the point of doing analysis every single day? You know, you're supposed to get

day? You know, you're supposed to get better and better over time. So, uh I think we're doing good. Uh so, you know, shout out to everybody obviously in the courses who get the uh stock tab, you get our archive of uh fundamental

analysis there. Uh but anyway, uh Q's

analysis there. Uh but anyway, uh Q's just continue holding on. Uh this is exactly what we expected in the alpha report. It makes sense like for you even

report. It makes sense like for you even if you're not part of it. It is

something that you would expect to continue through December 9th. And uh

don't expect anything really much out of uh Powell tonight, but I'll be there to cover it live. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to

much. People love you. People look up to you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.